Sunday, December 31, 2006

W-10 BP65

Sorry guys, no long summary today. Just getting the BP65 out on the web before games start. We'll have more discussion on big games and the BCS vs. Mid-Majors after the New Year:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Arizona
2. LSU
2. Wisconsin
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Alabama
3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Duke
3. UConn

4. Texas A&M
4. Marquette
4. Oklahoma State
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Tennessee
5. Texas
5. Oregon
5. Washington

6. Kentucky
6. Maryland
6. Michigan State
6. California

7. WICHITA ST (MVC)]
7. Notre Dame
7. Boston College
7. West Virginia

8. Gonzaga
8. AIR FORCE (MWC)
8. Illinois
8. NEVADA (WAC)

9. Missouri State
9. Purdue
9. Georgetown
9. Virginia

10. Clemson
10. Missouri
10. Villanova
10. Northern Iowa

11. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
11. USC
11. BUTLER (HORIZON)
11. San Diego State

12. Texas Tech
12. Syracuse
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
12. Louisville

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)

15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

Friday, December 29, 2006

More Holiday Hoops

#4 Florida 86, #3 Ohio State 60 No one saw this coming, so don't even say that you did. The game was relatively close throughout the first half and into the second half, before everything that could go wrong began going wrong for OSU. What really buried them was their immaturity. As soon as they fell behind by 8, 9, 10 points they started launching threes every time down the floor. They had a ton of time left but panicked. For a team that is ridiculously young, you had to expect this to happen at some point, although not to this extreme perhaps. Ohio State could use this as a building block, if That Motta can stress this as what not to do when down by a few points on the road. Ohio State needs to learn soon, because they head to Wisconsin in a couple weeks for a monumental game. If Ohio State can sweep the regular season and postseason Big 10 titles, they will still get a #1 seed and this game won't even matter.

Tennessee 111, Texas 105, OT Tennessee sure is a fun team to watch, aren't they? Bruce Pearl is a great coach and this team really matches his excitement and energy. This game could have some seeding implications in March, but for now it was just a game to sit back and enjoy. A big 26 and 8 out of superfrosh Kevin Durant matched by 35 and 11 (plus a clutch 3-pointer late) by All-American Chris Lofton. The game was just close in every way. 45% shooting to 44% shooting, 48 rebounds to 45, 10 rebounds to 7, 29 fouls to 24. Nothing for either team to be ashamed about.

USC 60, #8 Wichita State 56 This game just goes to show what I've been saying all year: the Mid-Majors struggle when they play games they're supposed to win. It goes to a larger point that I will make a longer post about: It's so much easier to win as an underdog when you have a long time to focus on one game. It's much, much harder when you have to beat quality teams night in and night out, two or three times per week. So we've gone from under-rating these teams to over-rating them. If we're going to lavish praise on these teams for beating Iowa and Purdue, then we have to lavish praise on BCS schools that do it almost every game. Wichita State, like other mid-majors has struggled in games it's supposed to win (as opposed to games they're just happy to win), and when you combine that with a team that is not only an underdog but which also has Pac-10 talent... no one should be surprised at this result. So, should I shove this result in the face of those Wichita State fans that tried to deface this blog with insult-filled posts for suggesting (egads!) that Wichita State would only end up with a 6 or 7 seed, and not a 1, 2 or 3 seed... nah.

USC 86, #13 Washington 79 Speaking of USC: Welcome back to big-time basketball! As big as the win over a Top 10 team was, this was clearly an even bigger win for the program. I thought I was being optimistic for thinking they'd be back to the Tournament as early as next year. They might be back this year. The only real question regards how USC handles the success. How do they play once they become the hunted instead of the hunters? Can they win some games on the road in the Pac-10? I mean, they could easily fall on their face and lose their next game to Washington State. They still have a lot to prove before we start putting the cameras in their building on Selection Sunday.

#21 Clemson 75, Georgia 60
I talked about this possibility a few weeks ago, and it's become reality. Barring a monumental flop against Georgia State, they're going to enter ACC play at 14-0. Even if they only go 8-8 in conference play, it's going to be tough to keep a 22-8 ACC team out of the Tournament. If they go 9-7 and making the ACC Tourney Semifinals, I'd have to actually consider them a LOCK to get in, which would have been a pretty amazing statement two months ago. Of course, before we get ahead of ourselves, Clemson hasn't actually beaten a Tournament-quality team yet. This is the best win they've had. But when you go through the schedule you have road games like Old Dominion and Minnesota and home games like Georgia and Mississippi State. None of those, by themselves, is all too impressive. But when taken together, they represent a decent minefield traversed. All of those are games they could have lost and didn't. If they can win their ACC opener at FSU they might really be ready to explode on the ACC scene.

Indiana State 89, Purdue 70
Speaking of the "Clemson of the Big 10", as I've been calling them, Purdue's out-of-conference play has taken a different turn from that of Clemson. After a great 8-1 start that included wins over Missouri, Virginia and Oklahoma, they've lost two of their last four, including this romp by the Sycamores. But all is not lost for the Boilermakers. In a lot of ways their out-of-conference schedule has a different style than that of Clemson. Clemson didn't win a single game as an underdog, and many of their games were blowouts. They were building momentum and confidence, and building a resume before ACC play began. Purdue, on other hand, has played some real close games and tough road games. They are already prepared for tough conference play. We don't know how Clemson is going to respond when they lose two tough games in a row. Will they bounce back or will they roll over? As for Purdue, they start off with four winnable Big 10 games. If they can win three of four they'll be back on track and in excellent shape. If they only go 2-2 they'll be okay, but they really need to avoid a 1-3 start heading into Madison to face the Badgers. A likely loss there would drop them to 1-4, and make them really need a big turnaround to get back onto the Bubble.

UNLV 74, Texas Tech 66
You could really tell why Bob Knight wants this record over with. The Red Raiders just looked so unbelievably tight throughout the first half. They didn't loosen up until the final ten minutes, when they finally came to realization that they probably weren't breaking the record and just went out and played Texas Tech basketball. As for the record: Like Andy Katz said, Knight isn't really going to own this record. He's just keeping it warm until Coach K takes it. He's closing hard and will have it within four years of when Knight retires. If Krzyzewski sticks around and coaches until he's in his 70's he could put that record out of reach. He'll blow past 1000 wins before he even hits 70, most likely while he's 68. Back to the Red Raiders, they've had some good wins this year, and some real flashes of excellence. They have the potential to be a really tough team to beat, especially at Lubbock. We just won't really know how good this team is until they get the burden of win 880 off their backs. Hopefully they can get it against New Mexico so they can start Big 12 play with a clear mind.

Sunday, December 24, 2006

W-11 BP65

Sorry for the late posting everyone, but there's no rush today. There aren't any games on tap for a few days. More updates on yesterday's late games (including Florida's remarkable game against OSU) coming soon:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. LSU
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Arizona
2. Wisconsin

3. Alabama
3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Duke
3. UConn

4. Texas A&M
4. Marquette
4. Oklahoma State
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Washington
5. Kentucky
5. Texas
5. Tennessee

6. Maryland
6. Michigan State
6. California
6. WICHITA ST (MVC)

7. Boston College
7. Missouri State
7. Gonzaga
7. AIR FORCE (MWC)

8. Illinois
8. Oregon
8. NEVADA (WAC)
8. West Virginia

9. Purdue
9. Georgetown
9. Virginia
9. Notre Dame

10. Syracuse
10. Clemson
10. Missouri
10. Villanova

11. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
11. Texas Tech
11. BUTLER (HORIZON)
11. San Diego State

12. Georgia Tech
12. Northern Iowa
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
12. Louisville

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)

15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Holiday Hoops

Utah 94, Virginia 70
I don't know what's going on with the Cavaliers. They had such an outstanding start to the year that it seemed like they might compete for a spot in the top four in the ACC or so. But at this point, Virginia's Tournament resume is pretty suspect with back-to-back losses to Appalachian State and Utah. To be fair, Utah did shoot an insane 62.3% from the field. They also took down 8 offensive boards while Virginia only managed 10 defensive rebounds the entire game (can anyone remember a good team having so few defensive rebounds?). If Virginia is getting worked on the inside by Utah, they're in trouble when they head to Chapel Hill in a few weeks.

#9 Arizona 79, #18 Memphis 71
For a young team, Arizona really looks like a polished product. Chase Budinger and Ivan Radenovic are already looked like seasoned players, and both scored 18 points in this one. It helps to have a real seasoned veteran in Mustafa Shakur who can score whenever you really need a basket. Also, I don't know if it was Arizona's athleticism or just some lazy defense by Memphis, but in a matchup between two top-20 teams you almos never see a 38-10 free throw advantage. Other than that, Memphis played well. Regardless, Conference USA doesn't look all too good this year, so don't expect to see Memphis getting outworked like this on most nights.

Texas 80, Arkansas 76
Pretty amazing that these two teams hadn't played since the Southwest Conference broke up. Also, I don't know if it's just that the atmosphere doesn't translate on television, but it just doesn't seem like Texas is a very intimidating place to play. The crowd didn't seem like much of a factor at all. As for the game, just a very close match the whole way. Texas has the stars in Durant and Abrams, but Arkansas just seemed to have a slew of solid, consistent players. When push came to shove in the last minute of the game, though, the Texas stars took over. Either way, this game needs to happen more than once every fifteen years.

#17 Washington 88, #15 LSU 72
This wasn't as big of a blowout as the final score indicates. Early on, the Huskies went on a ridiculous run, scoring at an insane rate. Meanwhile, Big Baby really struggled to score with the heavy Washington pressure. They figured out that if the whole team just collapsed on him every time he was in the paint, LSU didn't have many good spot-up shooters for Glen Davis to kick it out to. After the early run, the last 30 minutes of the game had fairly even scoring. As for the two young big guys for Washington, Jon Brockman and Spencer Hawes, they're both good but I'm not ready to really consider them elite. Washington always plays well at home. I'd like to see those two score 42 points on the road in the Pac-10. Because remember, Washington needs to learn to play away from home if they want to have real Tournament success under Lorenzo Romar.

#14 Oklahoma St 95, #7 Pittsburgh 89, 2OT
A very good, well-played game. Definitely no reason to drop Pitt after this one, because they didn't show any new faults that weren't already on display at Wisconsin. They have good players all over the floor, but they just don't have that superstar, go-to guy. Gray needs to try to be a more dominant force inside. He has a bad habit of wandering outside near the three point line, where it's impossible for him to be anything but a guy to kick the ball to. Pitt already has players to kick the ball to - Ronald Ramon is deadly from outside - and what they really need is a guy who can demand the ball and score at will. As for Oklahoma State, it looks like Sean Sutton's teams are a lot like those of his father. A lot of good athletes, though not necessarily the most fundamentally sound or smooth. I wonder if they still practice with football pads. On a side note, you have to like the acting job by Byron Eaton on that flagrant foul that ended the game. It was clearly a flagrant foul, but Eaton was barely touched. Eaton went with the flow and flipped himself over, then lay on the ground with his head in his hands until the intentional was called, then got up with a huge smile. Before Pitt fans complain, it was clearly the correct call, but Eaten definitely made sure the ref called it.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Lots to Talk About

Sorry for the spotty posting this week. Here are some notes on some of the biggest games from this week. As for today's matchups, I'll get to those later this week:

Indiana 57, Southern Illinois 47
As I mentioned a few weeks back, it's amzing to think about how this game was going to be more important for Indiana than Southern Illinois, but it's just a fact that up until this game the Salukis had a better Tournament resume than the Hoosiers. Now, this game goes highlighted why Indiana will be a dangerous opponent for anyone in the Big 10 this year - they simply play hard and hustle and fight for points. Even against a Missouri Valley team like Southern Illinois, they didn't have overwhelming talent and they didn't score well (only 38% from the field), but they hustled. They forced 19 Salukis turnovers, brought down 8 offensive boards and drew 27 fouls. They're not going to score 85 points against Ohio State or Wisconsin because they just don't have the talent, but they're a pesky team to play. Even if it does seem like a bizarro world when Indiana is the pesky upstart. Meanwhile, this game also highlighted the biggest problem for Southern Illinois - offense. Everyone knows they can play defense, but they just lack any offensive firepower at all. And when you can't make your own shot, and you can't shoot, you'd better be able to get some offensive boards or get some fast breaks. Two offensive rebounds and two steals is just not going to cut it at all. Play like this is going to knock Southern Illinois right out of the Tournament.

St. Louis 51, Missouri State 50

Just a bad performance by the Bears, in every sense of the word. After leading 46-35 with just under 10 minutes to go, they only managed four points the rest of the way. If Blake Ahearn wants to be a star, he needs to learn to take over and score some points in situations like that, but he failed to even make a shot. They just allowed St. Louis to hang around, never putting them away. They even missed several front-ends to one-and-ones, which should be a stat in itself. That should count for more than just one missed free throw, since in reality two points are left on the table. And all of this highlights the problem with considering the top teams in the Missouri Valley comparable to good teams in BCS conferences. Teams like Missouri State and Wichita State have done a great job getting up for big games against top schools like LSU and Wisconsin. But when they're no longer the underdogs, and forced to face the expectations of winning the game, they struggle. It's a lot harder to win when you're a favorite than when you're the underdog.

Illinois 73, Missouri 70
A very good win for an Illinois team that is solidifying its spot in the Tournament. And good practice, too, since Missouri runs the type of up-tempo basketball that the dangerous first-round Tournament opponents will play. Missouri doesn't yet have real big-time talent, especially in the size department, so it was natural that they'd struggle on the inside with a traditional Big 10 power. Illini big men had a field day on the offensive boards, but methinks they won't have so much success against the real big squads. As for Missouri, this all highlights the fact that they need some time to develop under Mike Anderson. He needs a few years to bring in the type of players that can compete at the highest level of college ball. The success he's had this year (including the resurgence of crowds at Mizzou Arena) should help recruiting.

Sunday, December 17, 2006

W-12 BP65

This week was pretty slow as far as good games went - there just isn't much going on during the week with most schools having their final exams. Next week should be more of the same. Still, a few good games went down in the late afternoon and evening on Saturday, so let's get to those first:

#18 Butler 68, Purdue 65
A big win for the Bulldogs, and a big missed opportunity for Purdue. It was clear in this game which time had more talent, but Butler had the senior experience and consistency. Their free throw shooting was outstanding (except, ironically, at the very end), while Purdue kept playing over-active basketball in the pressure. At the end of the game, Purdue had several chances to tie (not just the desperation 3-pointer they've been showing on Sportscenter) and they either took an off-balanced shot or had a turnover every time. Purdue has definitely had an outstanding out-of-conference season, and the program is clearly showing that they have a life after Gene Keady, but it's hard to see how they're going to compete with the big boys in the Big 10. I see their ceiling as 5th in the conference or so.

Kentucky 61, Louisville 49
A solid win for a Kentucky team that has a better resume than people realize. Somehow, they didn't get a single vote in either Top 25 polls last week, despite the fact that they're looking fairly safe for a Tournament at-large bid right now. They may only be 7-3, but their three losses are to UCLA, UNC and at Memphis. All those losses say to me is that Kentucky is not a top team. But they're definitely a team around the border of the Top 25. For the record, they currently have an RPI of 33, and Jeff Sagarin ranks them 42nd. Louisville on the other hand.... eh. They have looked pretty bad so far. You'd think that Rick Pitino could put something together at some point this year, but he's running out of time. The Big East season is about to start, and Louisville needs to finish near the top of it to get back to the Tournament.

Texas Tech 71, Arkansas 56
A very surprising outcome. Texas Tech hadn't played well this year, with the lack of a second scorer and the distraction of Bobby Knight's wins record, so this trip to an up-and-coming team seemed like a bad situation. Instead, Arkansas looked absolutely atrocious for the first 10 minutes, and never was able to make up ground on Tech. This is the kind of win that could be a good springboard into the Big 12 season for Knight. As for Arkansas, I'm having trouble rationalizing why they should be the Tournament right now. They're 8-2, but the best team they've beaten has been Southern Illinois. The two best teams they've played, Missouri and Texas Tech, controlled them. You have to wonder if Arkansas is athletic enough to handle top teams gunning for them. Last year they were a team that others slept on. This year, no one is sleeping on the Razorbacks.

Georgia 96, #16 Gonzaga 83
So are the Zags the team that got beat up by Georgia and Washington State, or the team that dominated Washington? I want to say it's the latter, but Gonzaga's defense just looks too atrocious for them to be a top team. Honestly, they looked bad at everything but scoring. The had outstanding shooting - 59% from the field, including 11-22 from 3-point land - yet somehow lost by 13. How did that happen? For one thing, they couldn't get a defensive board, giving up 14 offensive boards to only 18 defensive boards for themselves. Add that to their 21 turnovers and you figure out how Georgia had an amazing 76 shots taken from the field, to only 56 for Gonzaga. If I want to find a silver lining for Gonzaga it's this: Their loss to Washington State was a "look ahead" game before they dominated Washington. So, is it possible that this was their look ahead game before their next matchup with Duke? They better hope so.

Missouri State 80, Indiana State 60
Another very good win for Missouri State, a team that might actually move into the Top 25 this week. They already have some marquee wins, and look pretty solid as far as a Tournament bid. And when you consider that they are probably the best threat to steal the conference from Wichita State, they might be looking at a seed around a 6 or 7. As for Indiana State, a bad start to a very important conference season. They don't have the out-of-conference resume of a Tournament team, so they need a good conference season to have a postseason.

Fresno State 69, Creighton 54
I think that, along with a lot of other people, I really overranked Creighton during the preaseason. Outside of Nate Funk (who hasn't been as good as billed himself) and Anthony Tolliver, they really don't have any other good players. They have struggled mightily to score against good teams. Right now, they do not have a Tournament resume at all, and need to send a message in two weeks when they have their conference opener at home against Missouri State. On the other, how about Fresno State? They haven't done enough to get into the BP65 yet, but their 9-1 record is nothing to sniff out. If they can close out the out-of-conference season with wins over Cal Poly, San Diego and Stanford, and then finish 12-4 in conference, they might be a 24-5 team out of the WAC. They wouldn't have any elite wins, but can you see a 24-5 team from a good mid-major conference getting kept out? Either way, Fresno State won't be in the BP65 yet, because I'd like to see them actually beat San Diego and Stanford first. As for the other 65 teams, here they are:



1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. LSU
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Arizona
2. Wisconsin

3. Alabama
3. Texas
3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Duke

4. UConn
4. Texas A&M
4. Marquette
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Kentucky
5. Maryland
5. Tennessee
5. Michigan State

6. California
6. Washington
6. WICHITA ST (MVC)
6. Boston College

7. Missouri State
7. Syracuse
7. Virginia
7. Oklahoma St

8. Gonzaga
8. Illinois
8. NEVADA (WAC)
8. AIR FORCE (MWC)

9. Georgia Tech
9. UAB
9. Oregon
9. Missouri

10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Clemson
10. Villanova
10. West Virginia

11. Texas Tech
11. Purdue
11. BUTLER (HORIZON)
11. San Diego State

12. Notre Dame
12. Northern Iowa
12. Michigan
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)

15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Tough day for Pitt

#7 Wisconsin 89, #2 Pittsburgh 75
Before getting to Pitt's performance, it's ncessary to point out the coming-out game for potential All-Big 10 player Brian Butch (27 points and 11 rebounds) and a Player-of-the-Year performance by Alando Tucker (32 points, 10 rebounds). Everyone knew that this Wisconsin team had experience and talent, and was practically a lock for the top 15, but the real question was whether they had the star power, or go-to-guy to challenge Ohio State and the rest of the country. Tucker is clearly that guy - scoring a basket seemingly every time that Wisconsin needed one. Along with the great homecourt advantage that they have in Madison, it's har dto see any team wanting to come in there right now. On the other hand, I think Pitt learned today that they were in denial if they thought that they wouldn't be affected by loss of Carl Krauser. When they needed a basket, they just didn't have that star who could handle the ball and put the ball in the hoop. Aaron Gray is an excellent post player, but there are very few post players who can really be a dominant force in the college game. On the outside, Ronald Ramon is a great shooter, but he's a role player. He needs someone else to kick him the ball. Pitt has a slew of good ball handlers and swingmen, sevearl of them scoring 8-12 points, but none was a go-to guy. No one who could carry the team on their back. I know that Aaron Gray was sick, but how much better can a Pitt fan expect than 17 and 8? If Pitt wants to compete with schools like UCLA, North Carolina, Ohio State, LSU and Wisconsin, they need to develop a real go-to-guy to fill that void left by Krauser.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Travis Ford: An Excellent Young Coach

UMass 72, Louisville 68
Travis Ford is one of those under-the-radar young coaches that is soon going to get the national attention that he deserves. After a solid playing career at Kentucky, it was easy to dismiss his early success in the NAIA as a product of his Kentucky connections, but his remarkable turnaround of the Eastern Kentucky program shows an ability to get the best out of his talent on a nightly basis. Now, he's doing it at UMass, a program that had largely dropped off the map (along with the rest of the Atlantic 10) after the glory days of the '90's with Marcus Camby and John Calipari. I didn't think that UMass had the pure talent to get a Tournament birth out of this season, but once again Ford is just squeezing out as much as he can from the cards he's been given. In his second season, UMass is actually a not-so-longshot bubble team. This is easily their best win, which isn't that great when you consider the resumes of other marginal bubble teams like Indiana State or Florida State, but they also haven't lost to anyone bad. Their two losses are to Boston College and Pitt - nothing to be ashamed of. They only get one other shot at a premiere win - a tough game at Kentucky next week that they'll probably lose. Luckily for UMass, the Atlantic 10 may not be like the '90's, but it's still a good conference. Resume building wins (as well as quality losses) exist in the form of Xavier and George Washington. If UMass can find some way to win 22 or 23 games and finish second in the A-10 (presumably ahead of GW and behind Xavier) it would be hard to deny them a Tournament bid. Even if they don't beat Kentucky, home wins over Miami, George Washington and Temple in the first half of January (along with a lack of bad losses) will probably be enough to get the Minutement into the BP65 in the runup to a big January 18th game at Xavier. Could be a really good game, with big Tournament ramifications. At the very least, some national recognition will help bring in the recruits that could return UMass back to its spot on top of the conference... assuming they can keep Ford from leaving to a bigger school.

Monday, December 11, 2006

Is Anyone That Surprised?

Texas 76, #11 LSU 75
Honestly, did nobody see this coming? Just click on the "Bracket Project" link on the right of the page to see some people who actually have predicted that Texas won't make the Tournament at all. I've been consistently putting the Longhorns as one of the top seeds in the Tournament, because they just have too much talent. In a lot of ways, they're a lot like Kansas. On any night they can stink up the joint and lose to anyone. But on a good night they can play with anyone. Even an outstanding LSU team. I still think Texas is the second best team in the Big 12, and that they'll beat A&M when push comes to shove. As for LSU, they just need to regroup, with a big matchup at Washington coming in a little more than a week.

Boston College 73, #22 Maryland 62
Boston College just has too much talent to struggle so much, and they proved it against an unsuspecting Maryland team. Now, Boston College has had a bad habit of underperforming their talent level under Al Skinner, but this was clearly a game where the athletes played to their potential. As for Maryland, the silver lining is another good game out of junior James Gist (17 points and 10 boards). For a player that almost no one heard of before this year (only 8 points in 22 minutes per game last year) he's looking like he's really excelling in the extended playing time that he's gotten this year.

Sunday, December 10, 2006

W-13 BP65

#18 Gonzaga 97, #8 Washington 77
Well, I guess it really was a look-ahead game. Gonzaga is clearly still a top team, and if the voters know what they're doing they won't drop the Zags in tomorrow's new poll. As for Washington, they have to be worried about their defense. There are some high-powered offenses in the Pac-10. What are they going to do when they face Arizona? Also, getting outrebounded by Gonzaga isn't too comforting. Meanwhile, Gonzaga still has a couple more good out-of-conference opponents before the WCC schedule starts. They could use a few more wins to buffer a possible loss in conference play.

UNLV 58, #19 Nevada 49
Is this really the first win for the Rebs over a ranked team on the road in since 1991? Wow, it's been a long time. Meanwhile, not a total disaster for Nevada. Fazekas wasn't 100%, and the team clearly had an off day from the floor. This loss does, however, set up a huge matchup on the 30th against Gonzaga. For two teams from mid-major conferences, it's the last chance to get a real good win before Selection Sunday. So will Nevada drop a lot in the new BP65? Not so much. They just can't let this happen too many more times:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. LSU
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Arizona
2. Alabama

3. Texas
3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Wisconsin
3. Duke

4. UConn
4. Texas A&M
4. Marquette
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Kentucky
5. Maryland
5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. Tennessee

6. California
6. Michigan St
6. Washington
6. WICHITA ST (MVC)

7. Boston College
7. Syracuse
7. Virginia
7. Oklahoma St

8. Missouri St
8. Creighton
7. NEVADA (WAC)
8. AIR FORCE (MWC)

9. Georgia Tech
9. UAB
9. Illinois
9. Oregon

10. Missouri
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Clemson
10. Missouri St

11. Villanova
11. Purdue
11. Arkansas
11. Northern Iowa

12. BUTLER (HORIZON)
12. San Diego State
12. Notre Dame
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)

15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. TENNESSEE TECH (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

Saturday, December 09, 2006

Wild Saturday

First weekend without college football, and it's basketball's turn to provide entertainment for the anti-social amongst us. For those that put in a few hours of viewing, we learned more about struggling teams with great reputations (Duke, Georgetown, Kentucky), and found some teams getting themselves into the thick of the at-large discussion (Purdue) while others blew their shot (Western Kentucky). So without further ado, let's get to it:

#9 Duke 69, George Mason 53

This game was a lot closer than the final score, which shouldn't be too comforting to Blue Devils fans. The defense looked good, but we already knew that they had good defense. One bright spot was that the offense looked a bit more aggressive than in past games. They also turned the ball over less, limiting bad turnovers against an aggressive George Mason defense. Still, if they can barely score in the 60's against a Colonial team, what shot do they have to score the 80+ points they'll need to hang with UNC?

Kentucky 59, Indiana 54
Not a good game for Kentucky. Indiana isn't a great team, and they didn't play a great game, but Kentucky simply could not put them away. It was a give-and-take game the whole way. One thing that was especially disturbing was that Kentucky got outrebounded by the Hoosiers. With the height advantage that Kentucky had, that just shouldn't happen. Randolph Morris played well, but he needs some more support on the inside. The SEC has a bunch of good frontlines, and Kentucky needs one to compete.

Georgetown 73, Oral Roberts 58
Compared to how the Hoyas have played lately, this was actually a good win. Roy Hibbert played a lot like JTIII has been expecting, bringing down season highs in points (23) and rebounds (11). Oral Roberts is no pushover, but I'm afraid it's going to take a lot more than this to get Georgetown back in the Top 25 and back in contention in the Big East, despite the poor play from the Big East lately (currently ranked 6th in conference RPI). There are a lot of talented players on Georgetown - atleast one of them has to step up and become a star.

#20 Wisconsin 70, #12 Marquette 66
A great win for Wisconsin in the "Wisconsin State Championship." Not only does this game have recruiting repercussions, but it was also something of a coming out game for both Marcus Landry and Trevon Hughes. Along with Jason Bohannon and another year from Michael Flowers, the Badgers will still have a good backcourt after Alando Tucker and Chris Rock graduate. As for this year, Tucker had a great game, firmly establishing himself as a serious candidate for Big-10 player of the year, as well as 1st Team All-America. On a side note, an excellent coaching job from Bo Ryan, who was obviously upset by Winthrop's dominant 3-point performance in Wisconsin's last game. Ryan's teaching these past few days clearly worked, because Marquette only shot 3-for-18 from behind the arc.

Purdue 79, Missouri 62
Speaking of good performances by the Big 10, it's hard to ignore Purdue as an at-large candidate at this point. In many ways, they're the Clemson of the Big 10, continuing to win game after game until their doubters just start to melt away. Count me as a former doubter. Meanwhile, Carl Landry is looking like a solid candidate for 1st Team Big-10. Tomorrow morning they will move into the BP65 for the first time this year. Meanwhile, none of this changes the fact that Missouri is an excellent team. They still are on pace for an at-large bid.

#1 UCLA 65, #6 Texas A&M 62
Just a good game between two good teams. No real big faults for either teams, as far as physical prowess goes. UCLA just continues to win, through a very tough schedule, and has clearly earned its #1 ranking. As for the Aggies, this makes two losses in one week. Both losses were against top teams, but the questions will persist whether this team can handle the pressure of being a top team. It's not exactly a program with a great history of success. Unfortunately, we won't know too much more about Texas A&M in the near future, as they won't play another ranked team for more than a month.

Drexel 81, Villanova 76
Everyone knows that Villanova lost a ton of talent to the draft, but their poor start to the season is still very surprising. At this point Villanova isn't even a real contender to win the Big East, and has to question whether they'll make the Tournament at all. They have a great coach, and plenty of time to turn this around, but this loss is not what the Wildcats needed after a fairly mediocre start of the season and no good opponents for almost a month.

Indiana St 72, #14 Butler 64
As I've said numerous times, this was bound to happen. Butler was overhyped - they're a good team, but not a top 25 team. And they don't have too many "good" losses left, which means that they're probably only one more loss away from falling out of the rankings, with little chance to get back. The best opponent that Butler plays the rest of the way is Purdue, a game shaping up to be a great matchup between two over-achieving teams. As for Indiana State, they've proved that they can beat a good team on any night. But they have too many bad losses thus far this year to be in the BP65. Thankfully for them, unlike Butler, they have a conference with good wins and losses to be had. A finish in the upper third of the Missouri Valley could spell a Tournament bid for the Sycamores.

Southern Illinois 75, Western Kentucky 70
A huge missed opportunity for a Western Kentucky team that had overachieved thus far this year. It's a long shot to consider a Sun Belt team for an at-large bid, but the Hilltoppers had a chance if they could have won this game. Still, they're the favorite to win their conference and get in with an automatic bid.

Friday, December 08, 2006

More Dogs in the Fight

Tennessee 76, #17 Memphis 58
A huge win for a Volunteers team in desperate need of a win. No real bad losses, but no good wins either for a team with a lot of talent and a great coach. A couple things that probably made this win extra sweet for the men in orange: First, an All-American performance from Chris Lofton. The junior had played well all year, but 6-11 3-point shooting for 34 points against Memphis on national tv is going to get anyone a lot of attention. Meanwhile, I'm sure Bruce Pearl is satisfied with a win over John Calipari, with whom he has a rivalry that has been covered plenty in the media.

#9 Duke 57, Holy Cross 45
This game was even closer than the final score. While Duke's offensive struggles have been covered plenty in the news, their biggest issue in this game actually wasn't their offensive aggressiveness. They got to the foul line 27 times and pulled down 15 offensive boards (Holy Cross only took down 15 defensive rebounds). However, they turned the ball over 19 times. Holy Cross actually forced a remarkable 11 steals. Duke has always had good guard play, but Greg Paulus has simply not done the job. Some have suggested that Jon Scheyer take over the starting role, but he is still a freshman with more turnovers than assists. The fact is that Coach K has a ton of talent at his disposal, and there has to be someone who can control the ball against Holy Cross. He just needs to find that kid soon, because Gonzaga is coming up in a couple weeks and ACC play starts in less than a month.

Washington St. 77, #18 Gonzaga 67
A great win for a Cougars team looking to justify its early season record with a win over a top-tier team. As for the Zags, we'll have to see if this was a look-ahead game. They have a big game against Washington coming up - if they win that then all is well. If not, Gonzaga could find itself sliding right out of the Top 25, with no chance to return for two weeks until they play a hungry Duke team. Back to Washington State, I don't think this win gets them on the bubble quite yet, but they're worth keeping an eye on. With no more good out-of-conference games (honestly, this was their only good out-of-conference opponent), the Cougars need a good run in conference. They get a good shot at Pauley Pavilion in a few weeks.

Notre Dame 99, #5 Alabama 85
Excellent win for a Notre Dame team looking for a game to brag about. Their early season last-second loss to Butler must have given Irish fans nightmares of another season like last year, when they seemingly lost a dozen games at the buzzer. But a win over Maryland, and another over the Tide has to have South Bend thinking Tournament. The Big East is pretty wide open this year - no one has had a real big early season win, no one like Villanova and UConn of last year. Notre Dame should believe they have a chance to win every one of their games. If they're right the majority of the time, they might have a longer postseason than they had last year.

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Posting Etiquette

I just want to make a full post addressing this: I want to keep this blog clean. So, no cursing, and no ad hominem attacks. Calling someone an "idiot" doesn't serve anyone any good. I understand that fans are always optimistic in regards of the team that they root for, and that's good, but at the very least we should debate it in a reasoned way. I encourage criticism, but if comments go too far in a personal nature I will be forced to delete them.


Moving onto more pleasant business, some recent games to discuss:

Miami (Fl) 90, #24 Georgia Tech 82
More of a bad loss for Tech than a good win for the Canes. Miami has struggled this year, and is far from thinking about an at-large bid right now. The Yellow Jackets, on the other hand, had established a good resume up to this point. Tech still has the out-of-conference resume that they need. But they'd better win atleast 9 ACC games to feel good about a bid, or even more if they want a decent seed.

Florida St 70, #4 Florida 66
A huge win for a Seminole team looking for a win after flat performances against Pitt and Wisconsin. Florida State was one of the first teams out of the tournament this year, so they know as well as anyone how important a win like this will be in March. As for Florida, they still feel unsure of themselves as they get prepared to defend their title. The full team should be back together and healthy soon, and there's certainly no reason to panic in Gainesville.

#12 Wisconsin 82, Winthrop 79 OT
Wintrhop is built like the ideal bracket-buster. They don't have the size or athleticism of a top team, but they press for 40 minutes and hit 3-pointers at an amazing rate - the ideal formula for an overmatched mid-major. Two stats from this game that I found amazing: Both teams took 25 three-pointers, but Wisconsin made six while Winthrop made 15. Meanwhile, Wisconsin had more offensive rebounds (18) than Winthrop had total rebounds (17). Crazy game. I don't think anyone wants to play Winthrop right now.

Northern Iowa 57, Iowa 55
An important game for both teams. Northern Iowa has looked very tough early on this season, and definitely seems headed back to the Tournament. Iowa, meanwhile, has really struggled early on. The Big 10 is down this year, so Iowa probably needs to finish in the top four of the conference standings to feel good about a tournament bid. Amazingly, I think we can say the same thing for Nothern Iowa in the Missouri Valley. What has college basketball come to?

#11 LSU 64, #6 Texas A&M 52
Big Baby is back! 24 and 10 for the big fella, and the Tigers are looking like they're getting back into form. Texas A&M feels like they missed an opportunity, of course, but it's no shame to lose a game at one of the top teams in the nation. The Aggies struggled from the field, and they'll have better days. They're still among the best teams in the nation.

Sunday, December 03, 2006

W-14 BP65

Before we get to the BP65, some thoughts on the last 2 days:

#6 North Carolina 75, Kentucky 63
Another solid victory for the Tar Heels. I know that pollsters have trouble getting out of the "social promotion" mindset, but North Carolina would get my #1 vote on Monday. Unfortunately, I don't think they will. Fortunately, this isn't college football, so rankings in December are pretty irrelevant. As for Kentucky, they showed up well. They are playing like a top 25 team, and they showed that they have the athletes (especially on the inside) to bang with any SEC team. They'll be a tough beat for LSU, Florida and Alabama. I still see Kentucky as the second best team in the SEC East.

Xavier 95, Western Carolina 61

Not that this is a marquee win by any means, but just another example of Xavier taking care of business this year. They have a very good core of Juniors and Seniors that seems poised to take the Musketeers back to the tournament. They have a few more shots at good resume builders, as they have a real shot to wrap up a tournament bid even before the regular season ends.

Clemson 74, South Carolina 53
You have to take notice any time an ACC team is 9-0, but Clemson needs to beat a legit team before we can take them too seriously. The Tigers scheduled a patsy out of conference schedule to build team confidence (their best opponent will be Georgia on New Year's Eve), but it just may work. They could very well go 14-0 out of conference. The sort of hype that would create could be a negative in early conference play, but even if they only go 8-8 in the ACC, do you see the selection committee rejecting a 22-8 ACC team? Probably not. Definitely a team to pay attention to.

Depaul 64, #5 Kansas 57
Jayhawk fans expect this by now. They have incredible amounts of talent, but they're just incredibly inconsistent. As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, all of this is taken into account in the BP65. You know they're going to have a few more great wins, and few more awful losses. In the end, I still see them as #2 seed. They don't have the consistency for a #1 seed, but just have too much talent to expect them to fall to a #3. They'll jump up and down in the polls and in other bracket predictions, but that's the difference between those predictions and BasketballPredictions. We don't fall prey to the daily hype.

#21 Gonzaga 87, #25 Texas 77
Wow, Gonzaga has looked amazing so far this season. You have to wonder if Mark Few was right when he said that a healthy Heytfelt would have made Gonzaga a real national contender last year. Either way, they have obviously just about wrapped up a tournament spot and are only worried about their seed. Unfortunately, just like Butler, they have no good in-conference losses. It's so difficult to go perfect in conference (like they did last year) so you have to expect that at some point they'll lose a game and drop in the polls. I still see them as a #6 seed right now. As for Texas, they still look like an excellent team. They will likely fall out of the top 25, but they'll be back soon. On any given day, they can have several of their young players look like All-Americans. I still think they're the second best team in the Big 12. Not too much to be ashamed of to lose to this Zags team.

#10 Duke 61, #23 Georgetown 52
Two teams underperforming so far. So was this an example of both teams continuing to struggle, or a turnaround game for both? Honestly, it's hard to tell. It was a messy game, with a lot of turnovers and fairly poor shooting. But I still believe that Duke is Duke, and they're hard to beat in any given game. Unfortuntaely for Georgetown, this was a chance to prove themselves that they desperately needed to take advantage of. The Hoyas are better than they have played so far, but they have to prove it on the court. And they're going to have to do it in the Big East - they can't salvage too much out of the rest of their out of conference schedule.

#22 Wichita State 64, #14 Syracuse 61

Another great win for Wichita State. For all the hype over Butler, the Shockers have been the best mid-major so far this year (other than Gonzaga, a team that is hardly a "mid-major" anymore). In fact, they've almost locked up a tournament bid already. I'd say that they only need a Top Five finish in conference to get a bid. I'm pretty sure that's never been said of a Missouri Valley team on a December 3rd before.

North Dakota State 64, #9 Marquette 60
Marquette was due for a step back. They're a young team that is going to have an off night. The question is how they will bounce back from this. They have a huge game next weekend against Wisconsin that they need to win if they want to stay among the top four seeds in the BP65. No reason for real panic, of course, for a loss against a North Dakota State team that has always been difficult for top teams. They're not an easy beat. Especially when they shoot 48% and you shoot under 36%.



Now, without further ado, the new BP-65. Note that conference champions are now denoted by capital letters with the conference name in parentheses:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. LSU
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Arizona
2. Alabama

3. Texas
3. Duke
3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Wisconsin

4. Texas
4. Texas A&M
4. Marquette
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Kentucky
5. UConn
5. Maryland
5. California

6. Syracuse
6. Boston College
6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Washington

7. Tennessee
7. WICHITA ST (MVC)
7. Virginia
7. Georgetown

8. Michigan St
8. NEVADA (WAC)
8. Georgia Tech
8. Villanova

9. Creighton
9. Oklahoma St
9. Missouri
9. Oregon

10. Missouri St
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. UAB
10. AIR FORCE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

11. Illinois
11. Northern Iowa
11. Arkansas
11. San Diego State

12. BUTLER (HORIZON)
12. Southern Illinois
12. Clemson
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. ARKON (MAC)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. TENNESSEE TECH (OHIO VALLEY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. FURMAN (SOUTHERN)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)
16. CAL STATE-NORTHRIDGE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)

Friday, December 01, 2006

Rematch in April?

#6 North Carolina 98, #1 Ohio State 89
Everyone agrees that this was the game of the year so far. And most people who saw the game agree that these are the two best teams in the country. The athleticism on both sides was out of this world. What most amazed me was how both of these teams spent much of the time without anyone older than a sophomore on the floor. Most of the kids on both sides will go pro early, but imagine if all of the kids on both teams agreed to stay in college for all four years. Two or three years from now, they'd actually be good enough to challenge an NBA team. I can't wait to see these two teams hook up again in the NCAA Tournament. If Oden is as good as everyone thinks he'll be, they very well might not hook up again until the NCAA Tournament Finals. North Carolina was #1 in my last BP65, so that obviously won't change. But Ohio State will pick up from #5, it seems clear they'll be good enough for a top seed. They've shown enough consistency to stick around with a top ranking all year.

Missouri 86, Arkansas 64

A real statement win for Mike Anderson and the Missouri program. The best part of it all was who it came against: the school that turned its back on "40 Minutes of Hell" and sent Anderson away to UAB. It was painfully obvious, of course, that Anderson doesn't have the athletes yet to be a real serious contender. His full-court pressing forced Arkansas into dozens of turnovers and rushed shots. But Missouri made plenty of its own mistakes during counter-attacks. They don't seem to have a senior leader who can handle the ball and settle the kids down. When they face a school like Kansas, they're probably going to get creamed. This Missouri team, as currently constituted, would have a much better shot against Texas - a very young team that is inconsistent and makes mistakes. It's too bad that they don't get a home game against Texas - their only matchup of the year will be in Austin. Regardless, Missouri has a shot to finish as high as 4th in the Big 12, which would be good enough to make the NCAA Tournament. Give Mike Anderson a few years to bring in some real Big 12 quality athletes (something Missouri is remarkably short of) and the Tigers will be a real force.

Middle Tennessee State 65, Indiana State 58
A bad game for the Indiana State. Not too many people are predicting a run to the Tournament for the Sycamores, but they had a legitimate claim. Indiana State has the talent to finish in the top half of the Missouri Valley, a conference that could get five teams selected again. Up until this point, Indiana State didn't have any marquee wins, but they didn't have any bad losses either. Their one loss was by seven points, at Indiana - nothing to be ashamed of. The Sycamores get two more shots at a solid out-of-conference win. Butler shows up a week, and Pudue comes in just before the end of December. Even with a win in both of those games, neither might end up being a marquee win in March (depending on how Butler and Purdue play the rest of the year). After this loss, Indiana State really needs to finish in the top 3 of the Missouri Valley to be a legitimate at-large team.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

ACC & Big 10 Starting to Clear Things Up

The ACC/Big 10 challenge is a great opportunity for teams to pick up big wins and validate their early season performances. It's also a chance to mess up and shed uncertainty on what's been done against inferior competition. So while you hopefully enjoy the amazing OSU/UNC game, some quick thoughts on some of the other games in the Challenge:

#19 Maryland 72, Illinois 66

A very good win for the Terps. I know that they're ranked and Illinois isn't, but few teams have the home-court advantage that the Illini have. It's impressive for any team to win there, and it's a very important win for a Maryland team trying to validate its return to the Top 25. There were questions in the pre-season whether this team could return to the Tournament, but they've clearly answered those questions early on. Right now, they're looking solid as far as getting a bid. In fact, they have a reasonable shot to finish 2nd in the ACC and land an outstanding seed when March comes around.

#10 Duke 54, Indiana 51
A missed chance for the Hoosiers. After really struggling early on this year, they seemed really motivated to steal a big win. Meanwhile, Duke looked like they didn't want to be there. The whole game they just seemed to be waiting for Indiana to go away - they didn't want to take the extra step to bury the Hoosiers. They were lucky to escape with a win, to save their spot in the Top Ten. Meanwhile, Indiana has to prove that they can play like this every night if they want to get themselves back to the Tournament. Indiana gets two more shots for good out-of-conference wins: In a few weeks at Kentucky, then a game at home vs. Southern Illinois. By the way, raise your hand if you would have dared suggest five years ago that Indiana would really help their tournament resume by beating Southern Illinois at home.

Boston College 65, Michigan State 58
A poor performance by Michigan State, and the kind that makes you question Tom Izzo's control over this team. It's one thing to have a bad shooting night, but Michigan State looked like they didn't want anything to do with that game. No one was diving for loose balls, hustling on defense, or pushing the ball on offense. I've never seen Michigan State that tentative. All of that was good news for a Boston College team needing a big win after a rough early start to the season.

Virginia Tech 69, Iowa 65
Iowa does not look like a Tournament team right now. They may have been on the road, but Virginia Tech is one of the worst the ACC has to offer. If they can't win there, what hope do they have at Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois? Unless something changes, I see Iowa most likely falling out of next week's BP65.

Purdue 61, Virginia 59
I liked this matchup. Two similar teams: Rebuilding programs coming out of some their darkest times. Virginia is a few years ahead of Purdue, with a good shot at making the Tournament this year. Purdue is probably a year or two away from making a legitimate bid at an at-large bid. Still, another good win for the Boilermakers, and a big missed opportunity for Virginia. They have the talent to be one of the top teams in the ACC, but not enough talent that they can sleepwalk into March. They still need some more good wins to feel good about their resume.

Oregon 57, #23 Georgetown 50
Of course, there have been important games outside the ACC & Big 10, so moving on: I was willing to pass off the Old Dominion game as an anomaly, but after this game I really have to question what is going on with the Hoyas. On paper, they should be one of the top teams in the country, but right now they're 5-2 with absolutely zero resume-building wins. Right now they really need to steal that game at Duke in a few days. Otherwise they might not just fall out of the Top 25, but they might be gone for an extended period of time.

Monday, November 27, 2006

Why Butler Won't be a Single-Digit Seed

The 21st century media machine can turn anyone from underrated to overhyped in days. Case in point is Butler, a Horizon League team that up to this point has only really been known for messing up brackets in March. They looked tough from the opening tip this season, catching my eye after a very good comeback win against Indiana. Suddenly, they get hot and knock off Tennessee and Gonzaga in a row and they've been annointed the new... well, Gonzaga. The new polls this week have them 18th and 19th in the entire country. In other words, the pollsters would put Butler as a #5 seed in the tournament right now? Really? Two reasons that they can forget about that:


Butler Isn't One of the Top 25 Teams in the Country:

We talk a lot in sports about momentum, about how teams can get hot and outperform their abilities for a short period of time. It's how George Mason made a run into the Final Four. Not a single fan of that team thinks they'd have won a Best-of-Seven series against that UConn Huskies team. And, obviously, Butler was on a hot run through that NIT. Isn't it possible that their run through Tennessee and Gonzaga was no different from George Mason's run? But of course, at BasketballPredictions we need some deeper analysis than that. So, the response to the "Butler just got hot" argument is obvious: They beat a Gonzaga team that was also hot. The Zags had just knocked off a superior Tar Heels team, and was clearly on a run themselves. Which brings me to an issue not talked about nearly enough in sports: The Letdown game:

It's normal for a team to get jacked up, to look forward to one big game. A defining game, a game so big that it's impossible for a team to look past it. And teams almost always perform better in those games. They are too excited and motivated to not perform to their best that game. But after that big win, the natural reaction is to rest back. Suddenly, the team thinks that they deserved that win because they were better - not because they were just motivated for a defining game. Meanwhile, the media hypes the team, thinking the same thing, and fills them with unreal expectations. Naturally, the team is due for a letdown. It's why the Sports Illustrated cover curse isn't a curse, it's a natural side-effect of a situation. Look at what happened to Big East football this year. West Virginia heard all the talk about a National Title run and ran into a Louisville team playing what was considered the biggest game in the history of the state of Kentucky. This led to Louisville hearing daily how they deserved a shot against Ohio State and running into a Rutgers team playing its own "biggest game in school history." Naturally, Rutgers responded to its own National Title talk by coming back to Earth and getting creamed by Cincinnati the next week.

Now, Gonzaga's game against North Carolina wasn't exactly a school-defining game, but it was clearly the game of early season for those kids. They had looked forward to it for 8 months, and played their hearts out winning one of the biggest games in school history. It's only natural to expect them to come out flat the next game. And they did, letting Butler run up an early lead before chipping into it the rest of the game. Also, the Zags didn't come out of that UNC game on a "hot streak" - they expected to be good. They view themselves as one of the top 25 teams in the country and view any good win as just performing to their potential - not as a fluke. They weren't saying "Oh boy, maybe we can take out Butler and win this whole thing!" They said, "Great, all we have left is Butler" and they paid for that with a slow start. Of course, Butler has their own letdown games to worry about. As I predicted, Butler had a very tough time with Kent State. They're due to return to Earth soon. They have a good solid senior core, and might even have enough of a resume already to merit serious at-large consideration if they lose in their conference tournament. But it just doesn't make sense to consider them a top-20 team right now.


Even if they are, they're not getting a single-digit seed anyway:

Butler fans need to realize that no matter how good the team is, it's incredibly hard for a team from a weak conference to get a top seed. For one thing, the tournament selection committee doesn't like to give high seeds to small conference schools. With a school like Butler, you can't expect to divide their national ranking by 4 and correctly predict their seed. It's why Gonzaga has continually struggled to get a top seeding. And they only put themselves in contention for top seeding by dominating their conference. They had to win every game, because they simply had no "good losses" in conference. Last season the Zags successfully made an undefeated run through conference play - wearing them out psychologically, but keeping them in the hunt for a good seed. Butler is in the same situation - there are no "good losses" in the Horizon. What happens when they lose to Wright State or Detroit? They're going to plummet in the polls. Butler needs to win every game to stay up in the polls, and whenever they lose it's impossible to move back up the ranking ladder because they're beating Illinois-Chicago while other schools are beating BCS conference teams. The Missouri Valley is probably the strongest exception to this rule. There are a lot of teams that the pollsters consider "good" losses/wins. Schools like Southern Illinois won't get punished for losing to Northern Iowa or Missouri State the way that Butler will for losing in conference. It's not fair, but that's how it is.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Take a Deep Breath

If there's one message to get out of the past few weeks it's this: Take a Deep Breath. The fact is that teams don't perform to the same level every night. Teams have bad days and teams have good days. Gonzaga's win over North Carolina doesn't mean Gonzaga is better than North Carolina. It means that they're good enough that on a good night they can beat the Tar Heels. If a team loses a game, it doesn't mean they're inferior to the team that they lost to. Maybe they just had a rough shooting night. Maybe their star got into foul trouble and couldn't play. Maybe they just had bad luck. Over a larger sample size these things even themselves out. But in the early season, when a lot of teams have only played one decent opponent (if any), people's expectations sometimes just explode. So: Take a Deep Breath.


Another interesting issue this season has been that not only have the mid-majors not regressed this year, they've seemingly gotten stronger. It's interesting how casual fans have enjoyed this emergence, even if they don't exactly understand all that much about these schools. Earlier today I was on a plane, and the college kid in front of me was convinced that Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Butler, Oral Roberts and the others were all in the same conference. Sorry to disappoint - there's no mid-major that tough from top to bottom. The Horizon and Colonial Conferences are actually both down relative to last year - although not by much. The Missouri Valley, on the other hand, is doing a good job at establishing itself as the next major conference now that Conference USA is done as a power. Nearly half of the Valley has already established a pretty good tournament resume so far.

W-15 BP65

A lot of great action these last couple of days that I want to talk about, but I'll have to get to it later tonight. For now, it's time for your weekly dose of the BP65. Obviously, some schools are moving up, like Butler. Other schools are not going to free-fall for one game. I don't understand people that have Texas free-falling in their brackets to something like a 7-seed. Relax, it's only November. Moving on:


1. North Carolina
1. Florida
1. LSU
1. UCLA

2. Ohio State
2. Duke
2. Arizona
2. Kansas

3. Texas
3. Georgetown
3. Wisconsin
3. Alabama

4. Pittsburgh
4. Memphis
4.
Marquette
4. Boston College

5. Kentucky
5. Texas A&M
5. Syracuse
5. UConn

6. California
6. Tennessee
6.
Washington
6. Gonzaga

7. Virginia
7. Villanova
7. Maryland
7. Michigan State

8. Nevada

8. Georgia Tech
8.
Wichita State
8. Arkansas

9. Creighton
9. Texas Tech
9. UAB
9. Southern Illinois

10. Michigan
10. Oklahoma State
10. Xavier
10. Stanford

11. San Diego State
11. Iowa
11. Missouri State
11. Oregon


12. Butler
12. Florida State
12. Air Force
12. BYU

13.
Winthrop
13. Akron
13. Bucknell
13. Montana

14. Marist
14. Vermont
14. Penn
14. Western Kentucky

15. Oral Roberts
15. Long Beach State
15. Delaware State
15. Belmont

16. Furman
16. Sam Houston State
16. Jackson State
16. Samford
16. Robert Morris

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Happy Feast Week, Part II

Arkansas 61, Southern Illinois 53, OT
In this day and age, a win like this is actually a morale boost and resume builder for Arkansas. Southern Illinois is going to be a bubble team, and likely so will Arkansas, which made this game an important one for the record of both teams. Southern Illinois missed a good opportunity to build a case for the NCAA tournament by losing a very winnable game. Their defense is still outstanding, but their offense is atrocious. The Missouri Valley is a defensive conference, but atleast a modicum of offense is needed to be a real competitor. The Salukis need to improve in that respect.

Missouri State 66, #7 Wisconsin 64
Speaking of goood resume builders for Missouri Valley teams... Of course, this isn't a huge loss for the Badgers. They've still looked like a legitimate top ten team early on this season. They simply had a bad day. They shot 2-15 from the 3-point line throughout the game, and suffered while the Bears shot 63% from the field in the first half to open up an 18 point lead. Wisconsin did well to fight back in the second half, despite continued poor shooting, by simply playing shut-down defense. This is most likely not enough to drop the Badgers out of the three hole in next week's BP65.

#2 North Carolina 101, #21 Tennessee 87
An excellent bounce-back game for the Tar Heels. They looked solid, athletic, and confident. They shot extremely well and got good production from their young talent. Brandan Wright, for example, shot 9-10 from the field and pulled down 8 boards. As for Tennessee, by all means they should be a good team this year. They simply haven't showed it early on. They might just be running into teams at the wrong time. Atleast that's what Vols fans should be hoping.

Butler 79, #23 Gonzaga 71
And finally, the biggest story of Feast Week. Another good win for a Bulldog team that got an early lead on good outside shooting and just hung on for dear life. Are they due for a letdown game today against Kent State? Very likely. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose today. Either way, it's a far better than expected start for the Horizon League team that is currently ranked #1 in the RPI. Of course, Wichita State and Texas-Arlington are also in the top 10 in terms of national RPI, so let's temper some of the Butler hype for now. They have to make sure that their season doesn't peak in November.

Happy Feast Week Everyone

I hope everyone was able to take some time out of these holidays to watch some of the great basketball being played in some of these pre-season tournaments. Before we get to Butler's remarkable run, let's go chronologically:

Pennsylvania 68, Drexel 49
Another good early season performance by the Quakers, who are proving that there's life after Fran Dunphy. Not that anyone is considering them for an at-large position in the tournament. But these early season games do have an effect on the eventual seeding of UPenn, should they win the Ivy regular season crown again.

#5 UCLA 73, #22 Kentucky 68
I'd call this a good game for both teams. UCLA is proving that they are capable of taking the next step towards bringing home their first National Title in over a decade (an eternity for that program). Meanwhile, Kentucky showed themselves well. They fought back from a tough early start and made a good game of it. They're clearly looking like a decent team early on - they'll have to play a few more tough teams before we can really hone in where they'll fall at the end of the season.

#17 Marquette 73, #8 Duke 62
There's wrong, there's really wrong, and there's my underrating the ability of Marquette's youth to come together so quickly. We'll see how much of this carries over as this long season goes on, but this team might only be a week or two away from the AP top ten. As for Duke, I'm sure Coach K has the kids calm. An early season loss on a neutral court to a top team isn't the end of the world for a young Duke team. It just seems like they lack the athleticism to run with the top ACC teams this year. They always have outstanding players on the floor, you just wonder whether they'll hold up in what is turning out to be a very good year for the ACC.

Purdue 81, Depaul 73
A good early season for the Boilermakers. Two wins over BCS conference teams in consecutive night are nothing to sniff at. I know that it's not exactly Kansas and Georgetown that they beat, but this is worthwhile news for a program that has really been through some tough years. Carl Landry already looks like one of the best players in the Big 10. And even though he happens to be in his last year, this is definitely a program on the rise. Don't expect to see them in the tournament this year, but they could possibly be back as early as next year.

#11 Memphis 80, #18 Kentucky 63
Definitely a worrisome game for the Wildcats. Memphis did have a good shooting night, and Kentucky did not, but the score differential was mostly due to rebounding. Memphis clobbered them on the boards 38 to 27, including 11-5 in terms of offensive rebounds. If Kentucky is getting dominated on the boards by a tiny Memphis team that only gives significant playing time to two guys over 6'6, and none over 6'9, what are they going to do when they start getting pounded inside by schools like LSU? It was possible for Kentucky to get some positives out of the loss to UCLA. But this game was definitely a downer for that team.

Butler 56, #21 Tennessee 44
And now we get to Butler and the Preseason NIT. It's not like the Bulldogs came out of nowhere here. They're a senior-heavy team that had already played well this preseason. But I don't think anyone predicted this run through the NIT. This win over Tennessee is a good one to put on the resume, since Butler can obviously be thinking about at-large possibilities at this point. Let's keep in mind, of course, that Butler didn't exactly take down the best that Tennessee has to offer. Bruce Pearl's team shot a miserable 25% from the field and 12-22 from the free throw line. They'll have better days.

#23 Gonzaga 83, #2 North Carolina 74
This game validates what Gonzaga has done early this season. They've achieved a lot of great wins over the past decade, but this has to be one of their premier wins. But does this mean that Gonzaga is going to make a return to the top 10 and be an elite team again? To quote Lee Corso: "Not so fast, my friend." Gonzaga was clearly outmanned, giving up 16 offensive boards and only bringing down 7 of their own. The Tar Heels got to the line 30 times, as opposed to only 13 for the Zags. North Carolina simply shot poorly when they had their opportunities. So we have to put some of this on a bad day for Carolina. On the other hand, UNC did look impatient and immature at times. They flung up three pointers incessently as they tried to get the lead back, despite the fact that they clearly weren't falling. A team should never go 6-27 from behind the arc. Roy Williams should have focused on that during timeouts. It was clear that if they could if they just focused on getting the ball inside to their superior big men they would have their best shot at winning..

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Thank Goodness for Preseason Tournaments

Otherwise, we'd have far, far fewer of these excellent matchups. I'm watching Kentucky/UCLA right now, and any true basketball fan needs a pretty good reason to not watch the North Carolina/Gonzaga game tomorrow. Plenty of other good games that I'll get to when they finish. For now, some results from earlier today:

#19 Georgia Tech 92, #11 Memphis 85
Very, very good early season win by Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are another one of my sleeper teams, and they're already proving that they belong at the top of what is looking like a very strong ACC. You know that Memphis is always going to score their points, and Georgia Tech showed a lot of ability in running with them in the 2nd half and simply outscoring the Tigers.

Air Force 67, Texas Tech 53

A second straight poor performance for the Red Raiders. They had a tough day from the field, and that happens to everyone, but Tech showed immaturity in pressing and forcing shots when the chips weren't falling their way. Other than Jarrius Jackson, the rest of the team shot 34%. They'll have better days.

Okay, Fine.

#15 Marquette 87, Texas Tech 72

I'll give in. Marquette is better than I thought they were. They're exceedingly young, but they're obviously talented enough to overcome that youth. I still think they're over-ranked, but they've earned a spot in next week's BP65. I've been a bit rough on them this year, and I'll ease up. On the other hand, what does this loss mean for Texas Tech? They still have yet to beat a good team, so only time will tell if they're as improved this year as many had expected.

Old Dominion 75, #8 Georgetown 62
Old Dominion isn't a slouch, but they're not UConn either. Georgetown fell asleep at the end of this game, when they weren't winning by much to begin with. They reap what they sow. Georgetown is young, but not young enough for this to be excused. They'll need to improve their consistency if they want to go beyond the Sweet 16 this year. For the Hoya fans, just remember that JT III is a good coach, so there's no reason to think the Hoyas won't be just fine when all is said and done.

Sunday, November 19, 2006

W-16 BP65

Throughout the year, a new BP65 will be out each Sunday. During the last week before Selection Sunday there will be more than one BP65. The big key this early in the season is counting the weeks correctly. Someone please let me know if I've counted wrong, and there are actually not 16 weeks left until Selection Sunday. Moving on, a few teams have moved. Gonzaga looked very impressive this week and will move up. Same for Vermont (who become the new favorites to win the America East) and Winthrop. Here we go:



1. North Carolina
1. Florida
1. LSU
1. UCLA

2. Ohio State
2. Duke
2. Georgetown
2. Arizona

3. Kansas
3. Wisconsin
3. Texas
3. Villanova

4. UConn
4. Alabama
4. Louisville
4. Kentucky

5. Pittsburgh
5. Tennessee
5. Boston College
5. Syracuse

6. Texas A&M
6. California
6. Virginia
6. Memphis

7. Washington
7. Nevada
7. Gonzaga
7. Maryland

8. Southern Illinois
8. Texas Tech
8. Michigan State
8. Stanford

9. Georgia Tech
9. Arkansas
9. Michigan
9. Creighton

10. UAB
10. Air Force
10. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma State

11. Iowa
11. Hofstra
11. Charlotte
11. Xavier

12. Florida State
12. Wichita State
12. BYU
12. Butler

13. Akron
13. Winthrop
13. Bucknell
13. Montana

14. Vermont
14. Penn
14. Marist
14. Western Kentucky

15. Belmont
15. Long Beach State
15. Furman
15. Sam Houston State

16. Jackson State
16. Stamford
16. IUPUI
16. Robert Morris
16. Delaware State

Thinking about the Resume

335 of the 336 Division teams have played a game already (Temple opens up on Tuesday) so at this point every conceivable tournament team has set some sort of reputation. Some teams have already done serious damage to their at-large resume, while others have emerged as surprisingly possible bubble teams. The biggest positive surprise has got to be Winthrop:

Winthrop 74, Mississippi St. 63
You knew the Eagles would be good, and they entered the season at the favorites in the Big South - but I don't think anyone thought they'd be this good. It's still very early, and a lot can happen, but it's already worth considering the possibility of Winthrop receiving a tournament bid even if they get knocked off in the Big South tournament in March. They're moving up in the new BP 65 for sure.

#18 Texas 77, St. John's 66

The story of this game was the same as the story of the season for Texas: Kevin Durant = wow. He could be an All-American at four different positions. Texas probably only gets one year with this kid, though, since he's almost a lock for a top-5 pick in the draft. Meanwhile, both of these teams showed youth, talent, and inconsistency. Texas went on stretches where they looked outstanding, and stretches where they looked awful. St. John's had a bad habit of getting just far too over-eager whenever they went on a run of their own. Len Elmore made a good point - when the team got too excited they really needed Darryl Hill to step up, demand the ball, and settle everything down. His senior leadership is going to be absolutely essential if St. John's wants to finish in the top half of the Big East.

Nebraska 73, #25 Creighton 61

As I've pointed out in the past, the power of the underdog is overwhelming in college basketball. Being the underdog in a game is a huge psychological advantage in any game. This is often the defininig issue in games between middle-of-the-pack big conference schools and the good mid-majors. The mid-majors are extremely dangerous when they're the underdog, but it's very hard to win when you're suddenly the favorite. It's why teams from the Missouri Valley and the like have been so much more successful over the past few years as a 10, 11 or 12 seed than they've been as a 6 or 7 seed. And it's also why it's been remarkable what Gonzaga has achieved the past few years, cotinuing to make Sweet 16 runs as the favorites. The point of that whole paragraph: No reason to panic in Creighton over this loss. They'll drop out of the top 25 now and be able to play with a lot less pressure.

Drexel 59, Vermont 46
Another psychological issue at stake here. Teams typically regress to the mean over time - they tend to follow good games with bad games and vice versa. Teams usually follow up huge victories with a lot of talk about how great they are, and then they stink it up in the next game. Just look at what's happened to Louisville and Rutgers in consecutive weeks in college football. Both had historic victories, followed it up by 1000 interviews about the national championship game, and expectedly stunk it up the next week. The point: no reason for Vermont to panic. They're still probably the best team in the America East. They just need to make sure that they can keep the attitude of the underdog when they face Albany a few times later this season.

Friday, November 17, 2006

More Defining Games

Sorry for a few days without new posts. Computer difficulties. Moving on, some key games from the last few days:

Butler 60, Indiana 55
Indiana really looks like a team adrift right now. They have a lot of good young talent, but with no one really satisfied with their coaching situation everyone just seems a little too distracted. In comes a solid Butler team, and Indiana finds themselves out of the NIT. But we can't put this all on Indiana. Butler showed a lot of maturity and toughness in hanging in after falling down early. The typical pattern for an upset occurs when the inferior team gets up early in the game and hangs on. You rarely see a BCS conference team blow a 12-point second half lead over a Horizon League team.

Winthrop 57, Iona 38
A testament to the amazing senior class that Iona had last year. That high-flying team was one of the highest scoring teams in the nation, with the highest scoring background in Division I, and nearly took out LSU in the NCAA tournament. Now, 38 points against Winthrop? Atleast they have a solid freshman class to look forward to. They should be able to make another run at the tournament by next year.

#2 North Carolina 73, Winthrop
Maybe it wasn't so bad that Iona lost by 19 to the Eagles. Carolina didn't come out and stink it up. They played well.
Winthrop just played real well and almost pulled off the upset. The BP Preseason 65 already had the Eagles winning the Big South, but these good early wins might move them up the ladder to a higher seed. I don't think they're going to be stuck with a 15 seed again.

Oral Roberts 78, #3 Kansas 71
To be honest there's not too much to say about this game that hasn't been said. The worrisome thing for Jayhawk fans has got to be that this team is showing the same faults that the last two years' teams have showed - extreme talent and extreme inconsistency. On a good night they can beat anyone, on a bad night they can lose to anyone. Play like this has gotten them bounced in the First Round of the tournament for two straight years. Bill Self's main priority right now has got to be getting consistency out of this team. More than likely they are going to drop to a #2 seed in the next BP65, because they simply don't have the consistency to be a #1 seed - teams like that just win, win, win. Kansas is a lock for atleast a few more bad losses unless they can get their act together soon.

Maryland 92, St. John's 60
I'm going to define this as a good Maryland game more than a bad St. John's game. The Johnnies are better than they've been the last few years, and the 32 point victory for Maryland has to be seen as real impressive. The ACC now has atleast four, possibly even five really good teams. This is all bad news for Boston College which, with their bad start, are not looking nearly as good as Maryland or Virginia. On a side note, it's interesting that DJ Strawberry won the battle of Sons of Degenerate Fathers over Anthony Mason, Jr.

Michigan St. 63, #18 Texas 61

Texas clearly has a boatload of talent, but they're young and inexperienced and nights like this are bound to happen. The freshmen are leading the way for the Longhorns, and you have to expect them to gel as the year goes on. There's absolutely no reason for Texas fans to panic over a loss on a neutral court to an underrated Tom Izzo-coached team.

Missouri 89, Lipscomb 69

A 20 point victory over Lipscomb isn't anything for a Big 12 team to write home about, but there are a few pieces of noteworthy information gathered from this game. First of all, it seems clear that the outstanding up-tempo system Mike Anderson used at UAB will transfer over to Missouri. Missouri isn't going to get the talent that Kansas and Texas get, so if they're going to compete in the Big 12 they need a coach like Mike Anderson. On another note - you've got a new coach with an uptempo system, becoming the first coach to start 4-0 at Missouri in 84 years, and you can't get more than 5,413 fans to show up? Yikes. Time for Tigers fans to wake up to an up-and-coming program.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

More Blood is Spilt

Vermont 77, #14 Boston College 63
The first real big upset of the season, and one with a lot of implications. First, another poor performance by Boston College against lesser opposition. They have a tendency when playing teams from tiny conferences to assume that just showing up will be enough to walk away with the win. Eventually they're going to learn that even schools from the America East conference can be dangerous. And speaking of the America East, this win already puts Vermont and Albany on course for an excellent conference race. Remember, Albany already has a solid victory over Bucknell. Could the America East possibly get two tournament teams for the first time ever? Let's not get ahead of ourselves. But it's definitely going to be a good year for the conference.

#17 Marquette 59, Idaho State 56, OT
Another poor performance by the Big East, and a second poor performance by Marquette. I honestly don't understand why so many people have Marquette ranked so high. They have a lot of talented young players, but they just don't have the core or the experience to be a serious contender this year. Next year they most likely will be a top team in the Big East, but for now they should be dropped out of the top 25 (although they probably won't until they actually lose a game).

Utah Valley State 74, Montana 57
A ghastly performance by the Grizz. Looking at the stats, there was no part of the game where they really got dominated. They just got beaten a little bit in every way. This really opens the door for Northern Arizona:

Northern Arizona 75, Arizona State 71

Very good win for Northern Arizona. I might have to move them into my next BP65. Let's see if they can keep this up and steal the conference from Montana.

Monday, November 13, 2006

First Weekend Thoughts

Most of the top teams opened up this weekend. Finally we get to see some of the new freshmen and some of the new tournament-level teams. So, some thoughts:


Virginia 93, #10 Arizona 90
You had to know I was going to brag about the opening night performance of my cinderella team. This was clearly a game that Virginia won - not a game that Arizona lost. This good Cavaliers team will be tough for anyone in the ACC this year. Meanwhile, no reason for Arizona to panic. They put up a ton of points, which is what you'd expect from that high-flying, athletic team. They got beat by a good team on the opening night of a new arena. Not the end of the world. Expect for the Wildcats to drop out of the top 15 in the next polls, but I still see them as a 2/3 seed by the time March comes around.

#11 Duke 86, Columbia 43

Yes, the Dukies didn't exactly beat the Tar Heels on opening night. But it wasn't that they won by 43, but how they did it. They got large contributions from their new freshmen. It's not a shock to anyone that Duke brought in some excellent freshmen, but it's one thing to expect it and another to see it. The majority of Duke's points came from freshmen, including 18 from 7-footer Brian Zoubek. Oh, and they still have Nelson, Paulus & McRoberts. Duke isn't giving up the ACC without a fight.

#18 UConn 53, Quinnipiac 46
Yep. Not much else you can say about the bland opening-night performance of the Huskies. They have a lot of talent to replace, and leading the Bobcats by 1 with less than 2:30 to go in the game isn't going to instill much confidence in the Huskies faithful. Of course, you should never take too much out of an early-November game.

#19 Texas 92, Chicago St 56

The score isn't as important as the performance by Kevin Durant. Yes, it was Chicago St, but 21 points, 13 rebounds and 5 blocks is a heck of a 2nd game for any freshman against anyone. He's already a solid candidate for freshman of the year. He's a serious talent.