Wednesday, November 29, 2006

ACC & Big 10 Starting to Clear Things Up

The ACC/Big 10 challenge is a great opportunity for teams to pick up big wins and validate their early season performances. It's also a chance to mess up and shed uncertainty on what's been done against inferior competition. So while you hopefully enjoy the amazing OSU/UNC game, some quick thoughts on some of the other games in the Challenge:

#19 Maryland 72, Illinois 66

A very good win for the Terps. I know that they're ranked and Illinois isn't, but few teams have the home-court advantage that the Illini have. It's impressive for any team to win there, and it's a very important win for a Maryland team trying to validate its return to the Top 25. There were questions in the pre-season whether this team could return to the Tournament, but they've clearly answered those questions early on. Right now, they're looking solid as far as getting a bid. In fact, they have a reasonable shot to finish 2nd in the ACC and land an outstanding seed when March comes around.

#10 Duke 54, Indiana 51
A missed chance for the Hoosiers. After really struggling early on this year, they seemed really motivated to steal a big win. Meanwhile, Duke looked like they didn't want to be there. The whole game they just seemed to be waiting for Indiana to go away - they didn't want to take the extra step to bury the Hoosiers. They were lucky to escape with a win, to save their spot in the Top Ten. Meanwhile, Indiana has to prove that they can play like this every night if they want to get themselves back to the Tournament. Indiana gets two more shots for good out-of-conference wins: In a few weeks at Kentucky, then a game at home vs. Southern Illinois. By the way, raise your hand if you would have dared suggest five years ago that Indiana would really help their tournament resume by beating Southern Illinois at home.

Boston College 65, Michigan State 58
A poor performance by Michigan State, and the kind that makes you question Tom Izzo's control over this team. It's one thing to have a bad shooting night, but Michigan State looked like they didn't want anything to do with that game. No one was diving for loose balls, hustling on defense, or pushing the ball on offense. I've never seen Michigan State that tentative. All of that was good news for a Boston College team needing a big win after a rough early start to the season.

Virginia Tech 69, Iowa 65
Iowa does not look like a Tournament team right now. They may have been on the road, but Virginia Tech is one of the worst the ACC has to offer. If they can't win there, what hope do they have at Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois? Unless something changes, I see Iowa most likely falling out of next week's BP65.

Purdue 61, Virginia 59
I liked this matchup. Two similar teams: Rebuilding programs coming out of some their darkest times. Virginia is a few years ahead of Purdue, with a good shot at making the Tournament this year. Purdue is probably a year or two away from making a legitimate bid at an at-large bid. Still, another good win for the Boilermakers, and a big missed opportunity for Virginia. They have the talent to be one of the top teams in the ACC, but not enough talent that they can sleepwalk into March. They still need some more good wins to feel good about their resume.

Oregon 57, #23 Georgetown 50
Of course, there have been important games outside the ACC & Big 10, so moving on: I was willing to pass off the Old Dominion game as an anomaly, but after this game I really have to question what is going on with the Hoyas. On paper, they should be one of the top teams in the country, but right now they're 5-2 with absolutely zero resume-building wins. Right now they really need to steal that game at Duke in a few days. Otherwise they might not just fall out of the Top 25, but they might be gone for an extended period of time.

Monday, November 27, 2006

Why Butler Won't be a Single-Digit Seed

The 21st century media machine can turn anyone from underrated to overhyped in days. Case in point is Butler, a Horizon League team that up to this point has only really been known for messing up brackets in March. They looked tough from the opening tip this season, catching my eye after a very good comeback win against Indiana. Suddenly, they get hot and knock off Tennessee and Gonzaga in a row and they've been annointed the new... well, Gonzaga. The new polls this week have them 18th and 19th in the entire country. In other words, the pollsters would put Butler as a #5 seed in the tournament right now? Really? Two reasons that they can forget about that:


Butler Isn't One of the Top 25 Teams in the Country:

We talk a lot in sports about momentum, about how teams can get hot and outperform their abilities for a short period of time. It's how George Mason made a run into the Final Four. Not a single fan of that team thinks they'd have won a Best-of-Seven series against that UConn Huskies team. And, obviously, Butler was on a hot run through that NIT. Isn't it possible that their run through Tennessee and Gonzaga was no different from George Mason's run? But of course, at BasketballPredictions we need some deeper analysis than that. So, the response to the "Butler just got hot" argument is obvious: They beat a Gonzaga team that was also hot. The Zags had just knocked off a superior Tar Heels team, and was clearly on a run themselves. Which brings me to an issue not talked about nearly enough in sports: The Letdown game:

It's normal for a team to get jacked up, to look forward to one big game. A defining game, a game so big that it's impossible for a team to look past it. And teams almost always perform better in those games. They are too excited and motivated to not perform to their best that game. But after that big win, the natural reaction is to rest back. Suddenly, the team thinks that they deserved that win because they were better - not because they were just motivated for a defining game. Meanwhile, the media hypes the team, thinking the same thing, and fills them with unreal expectations. Naturally, the team is due for a letdown. It's why the Sports Illustrated cover curse isn't a curse, it's a natural side-effect of a situation. Look at what happened to Big East football this year. West Virginia heard all the talk about a National Title run and ran into a Louisville team playing what was considered the biggest game in the history of the state of Kentucky. This led to Louisville hearing daily how they deserved a shot against Ohio State and running into a Rutgers team playing its own "biggest game in school history." Naturally, Rutgers responded to its own National Title talk by coming back to Earth and getting creamed by Cincinnati the next week.

Now, Gonzaga's game against North Carolina wasn't exactly a school-defining game, but it was clearly the game of early season for those kids. They had looked forward to it for 8 months, and played their hearts out winning one of the biggest games in school history. It's only natural to expect them to come out flat the next game. And they did, letting Butler run up an early lead before chipping into it the rest of the game. Also, the Zags didn't come out of that UNC game on a "hot streak" - they expected to be good. They view themselves as one of the top 25 teams in the country and view any good win as just performing to their potential - not as a fluke. They weren't saying "Oh boy, maybe we can take out Butler and win this whole thing!" They said, "Great, all we have left is Butler" and they paid for that with a slow start. Of course, Butler has their own letdown games to worry about. As I predicted, Butler had a very tough time with Kent State. They're due to return to Earth soon. They have a good solid senior core, and might even have enough of a resume already to merit serious at-large consideration if they lose in their conference tournament. But it just doesn't make sense to consider them a top-20 team right now.


Even if they are, they're not getting a single-digit seed anyway:

Butler fans need to realize that no matter how good the team is, it's incredibly hard for a team from a weak conference to get a top seed. For one thing, the tournament selection committee doesn't like to give high seeds to small conference schools. With a school like Butler, you can't expect to divide their national ranking by 4 and correctly predict their seed. It's why Gonzaga has continually struggled to get a top seeding. And they only put themselves in contention for top seeding by dominating their conference. They had to win every game, because they simply had no "good losses" in conference. Last season the Zags successfully made an undefeated run through conference play - wearing them out psychologically, but keeping them in the hunt for a good seed. Butler is in the same situation - there are no "good losses" in the Horizon. What happens when they lose to Wright State or Detroit? They're going to plummet in the polls. Butler needs to win every game to stay up in the polls, and whenever they lose it's impossible to move back up the ranking ladder because they're beating Illinois-Chicago while other schools are beating BCS conference teams. The Missouri Valley is probably the strongest exception to this rule. There are a lot of teams that the pollsters consider "good" losses/wins. Schools like Southern Illinois won't get punished for losing to Northern Iowa or Missouri State the way that Butler will for losing in conference. It's not fair, but that's how it is.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Take a Deep Breath

If there's one message to get out of the past few weeks it's this: Take a Deep Breath. The fact is that teams don't perform to the same level every night. Teams have bad days and teams have good days. Gonzaga's win over North Carolina doesn't mean Gonzaga is better than North Carolina. It means that they're good enough that on a good night they can beat the Tar Heels. If a team loses a game, it doesn't mean they're inferior to the team that they lost to. Maybe they just had a rough shooting night. Maybe their star got into foul trouble and couldn't play. Maybe they just had bad luck. Over a larger sample size these things even themselves out. But in the early season, when a lot of teams have only played one decent opponent (if any), people's expectations sometimes just explode. So: Take a Deep Breath.


Another interesting issue this season has been that not only have the mid-majors not regressed this year, they've seemingly gotten stronger. It's interesting how casual fans have enjoyed this emergence, even if they don't exactly understand all that much about these schools. Earlier today I was on a plane, and the college kid in front of me was convinced that Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Butler, Oral Roberts and the others were all in the same conference. Sorry to disappoint - there's no mid-major that tough from top to bottom. The Horizon and Colonial Conferences are actually both down relative to last year - although not by much. The Missouri Valley, on the other hand, is doing a good job at establishing itself as the next major conference now that Conference USA is done as a power. Nearly half of the Valley has already established a pretty good tournament resume so far.

W-15 BP65

A lot of great action these last couple of days that I want to talk about, but I'll have to get to it later tonight. For now, it's time for your weekly dose of the BP65. Obviously, some schools are moving up, like Butler. Other schools are not going to free-fall for one game. I don't understand people that have Texas free-falling in their brackets to something like a 7-seed. Relax, it's only November. Moving on:


1. North Carolina
1. Florida
1. LSU
1. UCLA

2. Ohio State
2. Duke
2. Arizona
2. Kansas

3. Texas
3. Georgetown
3. Wisconsin
3. Alabama

4. Pittsburgh
4. Memphis
4.
Marquette
4. Boston College

5. Kentucky
5. Texas A&M
5. Syracuse
5. UConn

6. California
6. Tennessee
6.
Washington
6. Gonzaga

7. Virginia
7. Villanova
7. Maryland
7. Michigan State

8. Nevada

8. Georgia Tech
8.
Wichita State
8. Arkansas

9. Creighton
9. Texas Tech
9. UAB
9. Southern Illinois

10. Michigan
10. Oklahoma State
10. Xavier
10. Stanford

11. San Diego State
11. Iowa
11. Missouri State
11. Oregon


12. Butler
12. Florida State
12. Air Force
12. BYU

13.
Winthrop
13. Akron
13. Bucknell
13. Montana

14. Marist
14. Vermont
14. Penn
14. Western Kentucky

15. Oral Roberts
15. Long Beach State
15. Delaware State
15. Belmont

16. Furman
16. Sam Houston State
16. Jackson State
16. Samford
16. Robert Morris

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Happy Feast Week, Part II

Arkansas 61, Southern Illinois 53, OT
In this day and age, a win like this is actually a morale boost and resume builder for Arkansas. Southern Illinois is going to be a bubble team, and likely so will Arkansas, which made this game an important one for the record of both teams. Southern Illinois missed a good opportunity to build a case for the NCAA tournament by losing a very winnable game. Their defense is still outstanding, but their offense is atrocious. The Missouri Valley is a defensive conference, but atleast a modicum of offense is needed to be a real competitor. The Salukis need to improve in that respect.

Missouri State 66, #7 Wisconsin 64
Speaking of goood resume builders for Missouri Valley teams... Of course, this isn't a huge loss for the Badgers. They've still looked like a legitimate top ten team early on this season. They simply had a bad day. They shot 2-15 from the 3-point line throughout the game, and suffered while the Bears shot 63% from the field in the first half to open up an 18 point lead. Wisconsin did well to fight back in the second half, despite continued poor shooting, by simply playing shut-down defense. This is most likely not enough to drop the Badgers out of the three hole in next week's BP65.

#2 North Carolina 101, #21 Tennessee 87
An excellent bounce-back game for the Tar Heels. They looked solid, athletic, and confident. They shot extremely well and got good production from their young talent. Brandan Wright, for example, shot 9-10 from the field and pulled down 8 boards. As for Tennessee, by all means they should be a good team this year. They simply haven't showed it early on. They might just be running into teams at the wrong time. Atleast that's what Vols fans should be hoping.

Butler 79, #23 Gonzaga 71
And finally, the biggest story of Feast Week. Another good win for a Bulldog team that got an early lead on good outside shooting and just hung on for dear life. Are they due for a letdown game today against Kent State? Very likely. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose today. Either way, it's a far better than expected start for the Horizon League team that is currently ranked #1 in the RPI. Of course, Wichita State and Texas-Arlington are also in the top 10 in terms of national RPI, so let's temper some of the Butler hype for now. They have to make sure that their season doesn't peak in November.

Happy Feast Week Everyone

I hope everyone was able to take some time out of these holidays to watch some of the great basketball being played in some of these pre-season tournaments. Before we get to Butler's remarkable run, let's go chronologically:

Pennsylvania 68, Drexel 49
Another good early season performance by the Quakers, who are proving that there's life after Fran Dunphy. Not that anyone is considering them for an at-large position in the tournament. But these early season games do have an effect on the eventual seeding of UPenn, should they win the Ivy regular season crown again.

#5 UCLA 73, #22 Kentucky 68
I'd call this a good game for both teams. UCLA is proving that they are capable of taking the next step towards bringing home their first National Title in over a decade (an eternity for that program). Meanwhile, Kentucky showed themselves well. They fought back from a tough early start and made a good game of it. They're clearly looking like a decent team early on - they'll have to play a few more tough teams before we can really hone in where they'll fall at the end of the season.

#17 Marquette 73, #8 Duke 62
There's wrong, there's really wrong, and there's my underrating the ability of Marquette's youth to come together so quickly. We'll see how much of this carries over as this long season goes on, but this team might only be a week or two away from the AP top ten. As for Duke, I'm sure Coach K has the kids calm. An early season loss on a neutral court to a top team isn't the end of the world for a young Duke team. It just seems like they lack the athleticism to run with the top ACC teams this year. They always have outstanding players on the floor, you just wonder whether they'll hold up in what is turning out to be a very good year for the ACC.

Purdue 81, Depaul 73
A good early season for the Boilermakers. Two wins over BCS conference teams in consecutive night are nothing to sniff at. I know that it's not exactly Kansas and Georgetown that they beat, but this is worthwhile news for a program that has really been through some tough years. Carl Landry already looks like one of the best players in the Big 10. And even though he happens to be in his last year, this is definitely a program on the rise. Don't expect to see them in the tournament this year, but they could possibly be back as early as next year.

#11 Memphis 80, #18 Kentucky 63
Definitely a worrisome game for the Wildcats. Memphis did have a good shooting night, and Kentucky did not, but the score differential was mostly due to rebounding. Memphis clobbered them on the boards 38 to 27, including 11-5 in terms of offensive rebounds. If Kentucky is getting dominated on the boards by a tiny Memphis team that only gives significant playing time to two guys over 6'6, and none over 6'9, what are they going to do when they start getting pounded inside by schools like LSU? It was possible for Kentucky to get some positives out of the loss to UCLA. But this game was definitely a downer for that team.

Butler 56, #21 Tennessee 44
And now we get to Butler and the Preseason NIT. It's not like the Bulldogs came out of nowhere here. They're a senior-heavy team that had already played well this preseason. But I don't think anyone predicted this run through the NIT. This win over Tennessee is a good one to put on the resume, since Butler can obviously be thinking about at-large possibilities at this point. Let's keep in mind, of course, that Butler didn't exactly take down the best that Tennessee has to offer. Bruce Pearl's team shot a miserable 25% from the field and 12-22 from the free throw line. They'll have better days.

#23 Gonzaga 83, #2 North Carolina 74
This game validates what Gonzaga has done early this season. They've achieved a lot of great wins over the past decade, but this has to be one of their premier wins. But does this mean that Gonzaga is going to make a return to the top 10 and be an elite team again? To quote Lee Corso: "Not so fast, my friend." Gonzaga was clearly outmanned, giving up 16 offensive boards and only bringing down 7 of their own. The Tar Heels got to the line 30 times, as opposed to only 13 for the Zags. North Carolina simply shot poorly when they had their opportunities. So we have to put some of this on a bad day for Carolina. On the other hand, UNC did look impatient and immature at times. They flung up three pointers incessently as they tried to get the lead back, despite the fact that they clearly weren't falling. A team should never go 6-27 from behind the arc. Roy Williams should have focused on that during timeouts. It was clear that if they could if they just focused on getting the ball inside to their superior big men they would have their best shot at winning..

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Thank Goodness for Preseason Tournaments

Otherwise, we'd have far, far fewer of these excellent matchups. I'm watching Kentucky/UCLA right now, and any true basketball fan needs a pretty good reason to not watch the North Carolina/Gonzaga game tomorrow. Plenty of other good games that I'll get to when they finish. For now, some results from earlier today:

#19 Georgia Tech 92, #11 Memphis 85
Very, very good early season win by Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are another one of my sleeper teams, and they're already proving that they belong at the top of what is looking like a very strong ACC. You know that Memphis is always going to score their points, and Georgia Tech showed a lot of ability in running with them in the 2nd half and simply outscoring the Tigers.

Air Force 67, Texas Tech 53

A second straight poor performance for the Red Raiders. They had a tough day from the field, and that happens to everyone, but Tech showed immaturity in pressing and forcing shots when the chips weren't falling their way. Other than Jarrius Jackson, the rest of the team shot 34%. They'll have better days.

Okay, Fine.

#15 Marquette 87, Texas Tech 72

I'll give in. Marquette is better than I thought they were. They're exceedingly young, but they're obviously talented enough to overcome that youth. I still think they're over-ranked, but they've earned a spot in next week's BP65. I've been a bit rough on them this year, and I'll ease up. On the other hand, what does this loss mean for Texas Tech? They still have yet to beat a good team, so only time will tell if they're as improved this year as many had expected.

Old Dominion 75, #8 Georgetown 62
Old Dominion isn't a slouch, but they're not UConn either. Georgetown fell asleep at the end of this game, when they weren't winning by much to begin with. They reap what they sow. Georgetown is young, but not young enough for this to be excused. They'll need to improve their consistency if they want to go beyond the Sweet 16 this year. For the Hoya fans, just remember that JT III is a good coach, so there's no reason to think the Hoyas won't be just fine when all is said and done.

Sunday, November 19, 2006

W-16 BP65

Throughout the year, a new BP65 will be out each Sunday. During the last week before Selection Sunday there will be more than one BP65. The big key this early in the season is counting the weeks correctly. Someone please let me know if I've counted wrong, and there are actually not 16 weeks left until Selection Sunday. Moving on, a few teams have moved. Gonzaga looked very impressive this week and will move up. Same for Vermont (who become the new favorites to win the America East) and Winthrop. Here we go:



1. North Carolina
1. Florida
1. LSU
1. UCLA

2. Ohio State
2. Duke
2. Georgetown
2. Arizona

3. Kansas
3. Wisconsin
3. Texas
3. Villanova

4. UConn
4. Alabama
4. Louisville
4. Kentucky

5. Pittsburgh
5. Tennessee
5. Boston College
5. Syracuse

6. Texas A&M
6. California
6. Virginia
6. Memphis

7. Washington
7. Nevada
7. Gonzaga
7. Maryland

8. Southern Illinois
8. Texas Tech
8. Michigan State
8. Stanford

9. Georgia Tech
9. Arkansas
9. Michigan
9. Creighton

10. UAB
10. Air Force
10. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma State

11. Iowa
11. Hofstra
11. Charlotte
11. Xavier

12. Florida State
12. Wichita State
12. BYU
12. Butler

13. Akron
13. Winthrop
13. Bucknell
13. Montana

14. Vermont
14. Penn
14. Marist
14. Western Kentucky

15. Belmont
15. Long Beach State
15. Furman
15. Sam Houston State

16. Jackson State
16. Stamford
16. IUPUI
16. Robert Morris
16. Delaware State

Thinking about the Resume

335 of the 336 Division teams have played a game already (Temple opens up on Tuesday) so at this point every conceivable tournament team has set some sort of reputation. Some teams have already done serious damage to their at-large resume, while others have emerged as surprisingly possible bubble teams. The biggest positive surprise has got to be Winthrop:

Winthrop 74, Mississippi St. 63
You knew the Eagles would be good, and they entered the season at the favorites in the Big South - but I don't think anyone thought they'd be this good. It's still very early, and a lot can happen, but it's already worth considering the possibility of Winthrop receiving a tournament bid even if they get knocked off in the Big South tournament in March. They're moving up in the new BP 65 for sure.

#18 Texas 77, St. John's 66

The story of this game was the same as the story of the season for Texas: Kevin Durant = wow. He could be an All-American at four different positions. Texas probably only gets one year with this kid, though, since he's almost a lock for a top-5 pick in the draft. Meanwhile, both of these teams showed youth, talent, and inconsistency. Texas went on stretches where they looked outstanding, and stretches where they looked awful. St. John's had a bad habit of getting just far too over-eager whenever they went on a run of their own. Len Elmore made a good point - when the team got too excited they really needed Darryl Hill to step up, demand the ball, and settle everything down. His senior leadership is going to be absolutely essential if St. John's wants to finish in the top half of the Big East.

Nebraska 73, #25 Creighton 61

As I've pointed out in the past, the power of the underdog is overwhelming in college basketball. Being the underdog in a game is a huge psychological advantage in any game. This is often the defininig issue in games between middle-of-the-pack big conference schools and the good mid-majors. The mid-majors are extremely dangerous when they're the underdog, but it's very hard to win when you're suddenly the favorite. It's why teams from the Missouri Valley and the like have been so much more successful over the past few years as a 10, 11 or 12 seed than they've been as a 6 or 7 seed. And it's also why it's been remarkable what Gonzaga has achieved the past few years, cotinuing to make Sweet 16 runs as the favorites. The point of that whole paragraph: No reason to panic in Creighton over this loss. They'll drop out of the top 25 now and be able to play with a lot less pressure.

Drexel 59, Vermont 46
Another psychological issue at stake here. Teams typically regress to the mean over time - they tend to follow good games with bad games and vice versa. Teams usually follow up huge victories with a lot of talk about how great they are, and then they stink it up in the next game. Just look at what's happened to Louisville and Rutgers in consecutive weeks in college football. Both had historic victories, followed it up by 1000 interviews about the national championship game, and expectedly stunk it up the next week. The point: no reason for Vermont to panic. They're still probably the best team in the America East. They just need to make sure that they can keep the attitude of the underdog when they face Albany a few times later this season.

Friday, November 17, 2006

More Defining Games

Sorry for a few days without new posts. Computer difficulties. Moving on, some key games from the last few days:

Butler 60, Indiana 55
Indiana really looks like a team adrift right now. They have a lot of good young talent, but with no one really satisfied with their coaching situation everyone just seems a little too distracted. In comes a solid Butler team, and Indiana finds themselves out of the NIT. But we can't put this all on Indiana. Butler showed a lot of maturity and toughness in hanging in after falling down early. The typical pattern for an upset occurs when the inferior team gets up early in the game and hangs on. You rarely see a BCS conference team blow a 12-point second half lead over a Horizon League team.

Winthrop 57, Iona 38
A testament to the amazing senior class that Iona had last year. That high-flying team was one of the highest scoring teams in the nation, with the highest scoring background in Division I, and nearly took out LSU in the NCAA tournament. Now, 38 points against Winthrop? Atleast they have a solid freshman class to look forward to. They should be able to make another run at the tournament by next year.

#2 North Carolina 73, Winthrop
Maybe it wasn't so bad that Iona lost by 19 to the Eagles. Carolina didn't come out and stink it up. They played well.
Winthrop just played real well and almost pulled off the upset. The BP Preseason 65 already had the Eagles winning the Big South, but these good early wins might move them up the ladder to a higher seed. I don't think they're going to be stuck with a 15 seed again.

Oral Roberts 78, #3 Kansas 71
To be honest there's not too much to say about this game that hasn't been said. The worrisome thing for Jayhawk fans has got to be that this team is showing the same faults that the last two years' teams have showed - extreme talent and extreme inconsistency. On a good night they can beat anyone, on a bad night they can lose to anyone. Play like this has gotten them bounced in the First Round of the tournament for two straight years. Bill Self's main priority right now has got to be getting consistency out of this team. More than likely they are going to drop to a #2 seed in the next BP65, because they simply don't have the consistency to be a #1 seed - teams like that just win, win, win. Kansas is a lock for atleast a few more bad losses unless they can get their act together soon.

Maryland 92, St. John's 60
I'm going to define this as a good Maryland game more than a bad St. John's game. The Johnnies are better than they've been the last few years, and the 32 point victory for Maryland has to be seen as real impressive. The ACC now has atleast four, possibly even five really good teams. This is all bad news for Boston College which, with their bad start, are not looking nearly as good as Maryland or Virginia. On a side note, it's interesting that DJ Strawberry won the battle of Sons of Degenerate Fathers over Anthony Mason, Jr.

Michigan St. 63, #18 Texas 61

Texas clearly has a boatload of talent, but they're young and inexperienced and nights like this are bound to happen. The freshmen are leading the way for the Longhorns, and you have to expect them to gel as the year goes on. There's absolutely no reason for Texas fans to panic over a loss on a neutral court to an underrated Tom Izzo-coached team.

Missouri 89, Lipscomb 69

A 20 point victory over Lipscomb isn't anything for a Big 12 team to write home about, but there are a few pieces of noteworthy information gathered from this game. First of all, it seems clear that the outstanding up-tempo system Mike Anderson used at UAB will transfer over to Missouri. Missouri isn't going to get the talent that Kansas and Texas get, so if they're going to compete in the Big 12 they need a coach like Mike Anderson. On another note - you've got a new coach with an uptempo system, becoming the first coach to start 4-0 at Missouri in 84 years, and you can't get more than 5,413 fans to show up? Yikes. Time for Tigers fans to wake up to an up-and-coming program.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

More Blood is Spilt

Vermont 77, #14 Boston College 63
The first real big upset of the season, and one with a lot of implications. First, another poor performance by Boston College against lesser opposition. They have a tendency when playing teams from tiny conferences to assume that just showing up will be enough to walk away with the win. Eventually they're going to learn that even schools from the America East conference can be dangerous. And speaking of the America East, this win already puts Vermont and Albany on course for an excellent conference race. Remember, Albany already has a solid victory over Bucknell. Could the America East possibly get two tournament teams for the first time ever? Let's not get ahead of ourselves. But it's definitely going to be a good year for the conference.

#17 Marquette 59, Idaho State 56, OT
Another poor performance by the Big East, and a second poor performance by Marquette. I honestly don't understand why so many people have Marquette ranked so high. They have a lot of talented young players, but they just don't have the core or the experience to be a serious contender this year. Next year they most likely will be a top team in the Big East, but for now they should be dropped out of the top 25 (although they probably won't until they actually lose a game).

Utah Valley State 74, Montana 57
A ghastly performance by the Grizz. Looking at the stats, there was no part of the game where they really got dominated. They just got beaten a little bit in every way. This really opens the door for Northern Arizona:

Northern Arizona 75, Arizona State 71

Very good win for Northern Arizona. I might have to move them into my next BP65. Let's see if they can keep this up and steal the conference from Montana.

Monday, November 13, 2006

First Weekend Thoughts

Most of the top teams opened up this weekend. Finally we get to see some of the new freshmen and some of the new tournament-level teams. So, some thoughts:


Virginia 93, #10 Arizona 90
You had to know I was going to brag about the opening night performance of my cinderella team. This was clearly a game that Virginia won - not a game that Arizona lost. This good Cavaliers team will be tough for anyone in the ACC this year. Meanwhile, no reason for Arizona to panic. They put up a ton of points, which is what you'd expect from that high-flying, athletic team. They got beat by a good team on the opening night of a new arena. Not the end of the world. Expect for the Wildcats to drop out of the top 15 in the next polls, but I still see them as a 2/3 seed by the time March comes around.

#11 Duke 86, Columbia 43

Yes, the Dukies didn't exactly beat the Tar Heels on opening night. But it wasn't that they won by 43, but how they did it. They got large contributions from their new freshmen. It's not a shock to anyone that Duke brought in some excellent freshmen, but it's one thing to expect it and another to see it. The majority of Duke's points came from freshmen, including 18 from 7-footer Brian Zoubek. Oh, and they still have Nelson, Paulus & McRoberts. Duke isn't giving up the ACC without a fight.

#18 UConn 53, Quinnipiac 46
Yep. Not much else you can say about the bland opening-night performance of the Huskies. They have a lot of talent to replace, and leading the Bobcats by 1 with less than 2:30 to go in the game isn't going to instill much confidence in the Huskies faithful. Of course, you should never take too much out of an early-November game.

#19 Texas 92, Chicago St 56

The score isn't as important as the performance by Kevin Durant. Yes, it was Chicago St, but 21 points, 13 rebounds and 5 blocks is a heck of a 2nd game for any freshman against anyone. He's already a solid candidate for freshman of the year. He's a serious talent.

Thursday, November 09, 2006

First BP 65 of the season

Time to get the new BP 65 in before the season starts. I know, I know, a few teams have started playing some regular season games, but no tournament-level team has played a game that they could possibly lose. The real games start up this weekend and the following weekend. A few thoughts on some of the changes being made:


A-bit-smaller-Baby at LSU:
I'm sold. All anyone can talk about in regards to LSU is how Big Baby has taken his game to another level this summer. Expect LSU to be a solid contender to return to the Final Four.


Jarrius Jackson on, off, on Tech:
Like him as a person or not, there's no doubt that Bobby Knight knows how to coach a basketball team. It's hard to see him miss the tournament two years in a row. The team will likely be distracted early on with stories about Knight approaching Dean Smith's coaching record, but the team should improve late in the year and make a run into the tournament.


Not-so-Thad Four?
How can Ohio State play without their star recruit? They still have a bunch of good recruits, but when you take Oden out of the picture you see a team that lost a ton of Senior talent that's in a rebuilding year. If Oden can come back 100% then the team will move back up in the rankings late in the year, so I won't move Ohio State too far down. But a #4 ranking just doesn't seem right for a team with so many unknowns. Compare them to a known team in the experienced Badgers and suddenly Ohio State might not be the Big 10 favorite anymore.

The Draft:
I did my best to predict who would go pro and who wouldn't, but no one could know for sure. It was certainly fun reading people bashing my picks for incorrectly naming who went pro, not bothering to read the date of the postings. Regardless, we now know who will be playing this year, and the BP 65 has been updated accordingly.



1. North Carolina
1. Kansas
1. Florida
1. LSU

2. UCLA
2. Duke
2. Georgetown
2. Arizona

3. Ohio State
3. Wisconsin
3. Texas
3. Villanova

4. UConn
4. Alabama
4. Louisville
4. Boston College

5. Pittsburgh
5. Tennessee
5. Michigan
5. Syracuse

6. Texas A&M
6. California
6. Kentucky
6. Virginia

7. Memphis
7. Washington
7. Nevada
7. Texas Tech

8. Southern Illinois
8. Maryland
8. Stanford
8. Georgia Tech

9. Arkansas
9. Michigan State
9. Air Force
9. Gonzaga

10. Notre Dame
10. Hofstra
10. Creighton
10. Oklahoma State

11. Iowa
11. UAB
11. Charlotte
11. Xavier

12. Florida State
12. Wichita State
12. BYU
12. Akron

13. Butler
13. Bucknell
13. Montana
13. Penn

14. Marist
14. Western Kentucky
14. Winthrop
14. Belmont

15. Long Beach State
15. Furman
15. Albany
15. Sam Houston State

16. Jackson State
16. Stamford
16. IUPUI
16. Robert Morris
16. Delaware State