Sunday, December 30, 2007

W-11 BP65

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Duke

3. Marquette
3. Texas A&M
3. Texas
3. Indiana

4. Washingon State
4. Louisville
4. Pittsburgh
4. Arizona

5. Villanova
5. USC
5. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin

6. Oregon
6. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
6. Florida
6. BYU (MWC)

7. UConn
7. Syracuse
7. Illinois
7. BUTLER (HORIZON)

8. Vanderbilt
8. Stanford
8. Clemson
8. Mississippi

9. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
9. California
9. Kansas State
9. West Virginia

10. GONZAGA (WCC)
10. Oklahoma
10. Dayton
10. Boston College

11. Missouri
11. Miami (Fl)
11. Arkansas
11. Virginia

12. Creighton
12. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
12. Florida State
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

13. NEVADA (WAC)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. MARIST (MAAC)

14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)

15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. YALE (IVY)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
16. LIU (NORTHEAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Georgia Tech, Maryland, Duquesne, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Providence, Minnesota, Purdue, Nebraska, Drake, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Alabama, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
NC State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, St. Louis, Depaul, Seton Hall, Penn State, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, VCU, UAB, Akron, Bradley, Missouri State, UNLV, Arizona State, Washington, Auburn, Georgia

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to drastically improve their resume:
George Washington, Temple, Rutgers, St. John's, Iowa, Michigan, Drexel, James Madison, Old Dominion, Tulane, UTEP, Wright State, Valparaiso, Central Michigan, Kent State, Ohio, Illinois State, Indiana State, Wichita State, Colorado State, Air Force, New Mexico, Utah, Oregon State, Kentucky, LSU, South Alabama, San Diego, Fresno State, New Mexico State

Saturday, December 29, 2007

And Then There Were Six

Winthrop 76, #19 Miami 70
The first of the undefeated teams to go down today. But let's be honest, Miami is not an elite team. The #19 ranking was simply due to the silly way that we rank teams. Miami kept winning, so they kept inching up the rankings as other teams lost. Jack McClinton had another big day for the Canes, putting up 30 points on only 13 shots from the field. But he didn't get much help from the rest of his team. Meanwhile, Winthrop got back to what worked so well last year: scoring half of their points from behind the arc. Overall, 11 of 26 from three. For Winthrop, this is the type of win that can turn them from a 14 seed into a 12 or 13. As for Miami, this is more proof that they're going to be a bubble team all year. They still have a good shot at an at-large bid, but don't expect them to wrap it up too early.

Dayton 80, #6 Pitt 55
I had been telling people all day that this was a likely upset. You had Pitt very vulnerable, coming off a big win over Duke. As I have said, teams are never more vulnerable than after a big win or when they are on the precipice of a big accomplishment. Pitt shouldn't have been favored in this one, all things considered. But what ended up actually happening? Nobody saw a 30 point second half deficit coming. When Pitt is struggling it's because they're living and dying by the three (emphasis on the "dying"), and they went 3-for-26 in this one. And the injury to Levance Fields could be devastating if he's out for a long period of time. It's amazing how fast things can turn. Last week, Pitt looked like the favorite to win the Big East. Now they look like a team that could soon tumble out of the Top 25, especially if they can't beat Nova next Sunday without Fields.

Oklahoma 88, #23 West Virginia 82, 2OT
One of the better games of the day. It seemed like Oklahoma was down and out midway through this one, but West Virginia was simply unable to close the deal. West Virginia's time in the Top 25 was brief, but don't be surprised to see them back in a short while. They're a good team that looks well on their way to a return to the Tournament in their first year under Bob Huggins. The result in this one, however, was more important for the Sooners. They already had the win over Gonzaga, but that's looking less and less special by the day. This is their first big road victory. The RPI is a solid 27 at this point. If they can finish 10-6 in the Big 12 they should be a lock for the Tournament, and even a 9-7 will probably be enough after these good back-to-back out of conference wins. Mark January 14th on your calendar, as Oklahoma heads to Kansas for a game on that day. We'll learn on that day whether this Oklahoma team will make any real noise in the Big 12, or if they're going to try to sneak in as the 4th or 5th team out of the conference.

#12 Tennessee 82, Gonzaga 72

Bruce Pearl always focuses on hustle, and it was hustle that won this game for Tennessee. In the final 7 minutes, as their big lead was starting to slip away, the Vols chased down a slew of offensive rebounds to waste enough time to hang onto the win. It's been a very tough season for the SEC so far, but Tennessee is definitely a legitimate national title contender. They should run away with the conference. As for Gonzaga, they still look like a pretty good team. They keep playing elite opponents close. But as some point, you've got to win a game. I use close losses early in the season as an example of a team that is better than their record, and that is due to win more games in the future. But Gonzaga doesn't have the luxury of being able to get resume-building wins in February. At some point, they have to get that big win, and they need it soon. Their only real shot is to win at Memphis in late January. If they can't take that one, they pretty much need to run through the WCC undefeated. Otherwise, they might not even get an at-large at all if they lose the WCC tourney.

Illinois State 80, Creighton 67
Drake 62, Wichita State 54
Northern Iowa 59, Bradley 46
Opening night for the Missouri Valley, and already we can see that there will be a lot of uncertainty all season. Nobody is running away with this conference. Last year this was a positive, as they had so many good out of conference wins that it was possible to lose 6 or 7 games in conference and still get an at-large bid. I don't think that's true this season. Creighton looked like the most likely team to challenge SIU for the title, but this loss to Illinois State doesn't help their cause. Both Drake and Northern Iowa are off to good starts this season, and an opening night win helps their cause. At this point, I see those two teams joining Creighton and SIU as the four favorites here. A one-bid season for the Valley is a possibility, although it's unlikely in my opinion. The question is, who am I putting in tomorrow's BP65. I'll tell you what, I'm just not sure right now. SIU will still probably be in, despite the heartbreaking loss to Butler late last night. They don't have any big wins, but they should win the regular season MVC title. After that, I'd say that Northern Iowa still has to show me more before I proclaim them a Tournament team. I'll look at the numbers more and decide on Drake vs. Creighton by tomorrow morning.



The night isn't over yet. Memphis/Arizona is obviously the headliner. But St. Mary's is proving me right by struggling in the second half against Cal State Fullerton. And California is struggling with a very good North Dakota State team. It's really too bad that the Bison aren't Tournament eligible this year, because they'd be a great pick to pull a first round upset. Oh well. There's always next year, as they should be the heavy favorites to take the Summit in 2009.

Final Chance Saturday

I haven't heard anyone call this "Final Chance Saturday", so I'm inventing it and taking credit. For many teams, this is their final out of conference game of the season. The final chance to build the RPI and overall resume before conference records start to kick in. A bunch of good matchups, so let's get to the first bunch:

Wisconsin 67, #9 Texas 66
An absolutely great game that I hope everybody got a chance to watch. For those that don't watch a lot of Big Ten basketball, Bo Ryan put on a coaching show. The Badgers were missing their leading scorer (Trevon Hughes), and had inferior athletic ability at every position. But they played sound basketball, and got very big performances out of seniors Michael Flowers (guarded DJ Augustin and hit the final three-pointer) and Brian Butch (21 points and 11 boards). This should put to rest any talk of Wisconsin missing the Tournament for the first time under Ryan. Now, a lot will be made of the coaching decisions made by Rick Barnes at the end of the game. Should have have intentionally fouled Flowers with under ten seconds to go? Should he have called timeout with 2.7 to go? To me, too much ado will be made of that in Longhorns land. Both are debatable questions, and both ignore the fact that Wisconsin still had the ball with a chance to win with under 10 seconds to go. They shouldn't have been in that situation without their leading scorer, and in Austin. To me, the big mistake was that Texas didn't take enough advantage of their athletic advantage. I can understand not pressing the entire game because the Longhorns are thin on the bench. Damion James, Justin Mason, AJ Abrams and Augustin all played 36 minutes or more. They might have really gotten worn out with a constant press. But the real issue to me was that, other than Flowers, nobody on Wisconsin was capable of guarding either Augustin, Mason or Abrams on the perimeter. Rick Barnes tried to do a lot of high screens to get his guys to the hoop. This helped draw a bunch of ticky-tack fouls on Wisconsin, but the Badgers big guys did a good job of coming up over the screen and preventing the drive. Hindsight is 20-20, but I would have called isolation plays. Take whichever guard wasn't being guarded by Flowers, and isolate them on one side. They would be able to get to the basket with ease every time. Either way, Texas is still a good team, and they're still a competitor to win the Big 12. At this point, Wisconsin is probably the third best team in the Big Ten, although Ohio State might be better by the end of the season. As a senior-heavy team, Wisconsin only has so far that they can improve. Teams that start a lot of freshmen, like the Buckeyes, have much more room to grow. Unfortunately, those two only play once all year, in Columbus in late February.

San Diego 81, Kentucky 72
At this point, it's just getting embarrassing for the Wildcats. Even though the announcers spun this as one of the biggest upsets in Toreros history, it wasn't really much of an upset at all. San Diego entered the game with an RPI in the 160s, while Kentucky was at 200. This surely is the worst Kentucky season since Eddie Sutton's last year in 1988-89. That team finished 8-10 in the SEC and 13-19 overall. Of course, that team also got put on probation and was threatened with the death penalty. So, things could be worse. I've already talked about the fact that there is no movement on offense for this Wildcats team. In this one, there wasn't much movement on defense. San Diego outrebounded Kentucky 32-24, and managed to get to the foul line a remarkable 36 times. They hit a solid 32 of those 36 (89%), allowing them to beat a Kentucky team that hit 50% from the field. As recently as a few weeks ago, I still thought this Kentucky team could turn it around and make it back to the Tournament. No longer. It would take a miracle for this team to actually play well enough to win a majority of their SEC games, a minimum requirement for bubble status with this team. One final Kentucky note: I was shocked to see how supportive the Rupp Arena crowd was. No booing that I could hear. After how they ran Tubby Smith out of town, you would have thought they'd have little patience for the new coach. Perhaps they feel guilty about what they did to Tubby, who was a better coach than anyone in Lexington ever gave him credit for. As for San Diego, they have probably lost too many games to be a serious bubble team. But an RPI of 142 is a good start for an improving, young team. The Toreros lack even a single senior on the roster, and could be a serious contender in the WCC next year under Bill Grier.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Return of Basketball

Essentially a three day break without basketball for Christmas. But there are a couple good games today, followed by a full slate tomorrow. The best game tonight is obviously Butler and Southern Illinois from Carbondale. An important game for both teams. Butler still has not wrapped up an at-large bid. They don't have the glamor wins that they had last year, and Southern Illinois will qualify as one. As for SIU, I know that a lot of people don't even have the Salukis in their bracket right now. But, come on. I don't know how anyone can think that this team won't have some big wins and a good RPI by the end of the year. And they're still probably the favorites to win the Missouri Valley. This would be a good resume-building win, though. If they want something like a 6 or 7 seed, they need to start winning games like this. Some other games to watch for tonight:

Rhode Island at Eastern Michigan - this is my upset watch for the day. An untested team reaching the Top 25 for the first time in a very long time, on the road against a halfway decent mid-major? Definitely an upset special.

Sam Houston State at San Diego State (no preview available from ESPN)- Should be the game where Sam Houston State returns to reality. They're 10-0, but it's a fake because only 6 of the games were against D-I opponents. The RPI has slipped from 1st to 29th, but a bunch of their fans still think this team is headed for something like a 12 seed. I'm sorry, but they're not a very good team. San Diego State is the better team, and should win this one easily at home.

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Sunday Afternoon Update

Before I get to the actual games, I thought I'd point out that we've reached the point in the season when computer rankings actually say something real about the season. The Sam Houston States of the world are dropping out of the top spots, and the conference RPIs make more sense. Today is the first day of the season where the six highest ranked conferences in RPI are the six BCS conferences. Last year, of course, the Missouri Valley actually finished with a higher RPI than one BCS conference - the Big 12. But the Valley isn't nearly as good as it was last year. And the Big 12 is a little bit better (although they're not the best conference, despite what the RPI says right now.... that will change as the year goes on). The Atlantic 10 might even finish ahead of the Valley, although that's not a slam dunk. For the record, the six top conferences are also the BCS conferences in the Sagarin Rankings this morning. But that's not new. Anyway, onto the actual games:


#2 Memphis 85, #4 Georgetown 71
Despite all the hype, this was actually a disappointing game for most of the first half. Memphis must not have gotten a lot of sleep Friday night, because they came with no energy whatsoever. But by the second half it was clear that Memphis was just a bad matchup for Georgetown. Their best player is Roy Hibbert, and the game was too fast for him. With him neutralized, Georgetown just didn't have the talent to hang with Memphis. Still, don't jump off the Georgetown bandwagon. You can bet that they'll struggle with Pitt and Marquette on the road, but they can lose those two games and still win the conference and get a #1 or 2 seed. When at home, Georgetown should be able to control the tempo better, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go undefeated at home this season. As for Memphis, they remain the most likely team to go undefeated this season. Right now this looks like the best team Calipari has had there, and they have to be considered a favorite for a #1 seed. But I just want to see what will happen when they play an athletic team on the road. Too bad Calipari fixed his schedule so that every tough team is at home. This makes it harder to predict how they'll do in the Tournament, where they won't be able to feed off the crowd for energy quite as much.

#12 Tennessee 82, #24 Xavier 75
There are good losses, and this was one of those for Xavier. They withstood an early assault from Tennessee and then hung close the entire way. Losing this close, at Tennessee, after falling down by 11 points in the opening minutes - that's a good result. Xavier has established themselves as the clear favorite in a very good Atlantic 10. If they can keep this up, there's no reason that they can't get something like a 5 or 6 seed. In addition, this was a good win for Tennessee. A loss here would have looked bad. But they also showed that they could withstand an assault from a good team. And they also showed that they could win a game where the three-pointer wasn't falling (they went 5-for-20 from behind the arc). In my mind, they are the clear favorites in an SEC that has really, really struggled so far this year. They're going to have to run away with that conference to get a #1 seed. I don't see that happening, so I have them as a #2 right now.

#10 Michigan State 78, #5 Texas 72
A massive win for a Michigan State team that has arrived as the clear favorites in the Big Ten. The real story in this game, of course, was Kalin Lucas. The only real difference between last year's team and this year's team is him. If this team is going to make the Final Four it's going to because they have a real second star on the offensive end, and Drew Neitzel isn't double teamed all night. Raymar Morgan has been good, but not good enough (his stats are real good because he put up huge numbers on the bad teams MSU has played- his numbers have been mediocre against elite opponents so far). But Lucas really showed flashes of brilliance in this one. A career high 18 points in this one for Lucas, in addition to six boards and six dimes. He was the difference in this one. I still think that Texas has a shot at winning the Big 12, but they're going to have to learn to shoot better, especially in the mid-range jumper. In this one, they shot 38% from behind the arc, but only 41% from inside of it. When you take out the dunks and layups, they ended up shooting much better from three than from two. That's going to have to change, especially against teams that can rebound like Michigan State.

Mississippi 85, #15 Clemson 82
A lot of people are sleeping on the Ole Miss team. Is it really such blasphemy to argue that they might be the second best team in the SEC? I could easily see it. They are 11-0. And while it's not the greatest schedule in the nation, Clemson, Depaul and Winthrop are not shabby. Barring a very shocking upset, Ole Miss will head into Tennessee on January 9th as a 13-0 team. On top of that, they have a very, very easy SEC schedule. They only get Tennessee, Florida and Vanderbilt once. And they only play the latter two at home. Something like an 11-5 record is very, very reasonable. Throw in an easy out-of-conference game in the middle of that, and the fact that all of the good teams (Vandy, Florida & Tennessee) are in the SEC East, and Ole Miss is probably the favorite to win the SEC West with something like a 25-5 record. Even if they go down to Florida or Vandy in the Tourney semifinals, they'd be 26-6 overall out of the SEC. The RPI would be around 20 or 25. How is that team not getting a 5-7 seed? Right now I've got them at a #9 seed, but that's actually a cautious prediction due to the fact that there is some possibility that they'll fall on their face in conference. But there's no doubt that people are sleeping on this team right now. Rebels fans should be excited.


As an aside, be honest... what other website takes into account potential conference tournament results while making brackets in mid-December? That's why I think this blog is so unique. But enough of the self-promotion. There's a lot of good basketball going on this week - including a few good ones on tv today. Enjoy the Holiday basketball!

W-12 BP65

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Duke

3. Pittsburgh
3. Texas
3. Marquette
3. Texas A&M

4. Indiana
4. Washington State
4. Louisville
4. USC

5. BYU (MWC)
5. Ohio State
5. Arizona
5. Villanova

6. Oregon
6. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
6. Wisconsin
6. Florida

7. UConn
7. Syracuse
7. Illinois
7. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)

8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. Kansas State
8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Clemson

9. Vanderbilt
9. Stanford
9. California
9. Mississippi

10. Creighton
10. West Virginia
10. Boston College
10. Arkansas

11. Missouri
11. Miami (Fl)
11. Virginia
11. Rhode Island

12. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. Florida State
12. Oklahoma

13. NEVADA (WAC)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. YALE (IVY)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
16. LIU (NORTHEAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Georgia Tech, Maryland, Dayton, Duquesne, Massachusetts, Notre Dame, Providence, Minnesota, Purdue, Nebraska, Bradley, Drake, San Diego State, Alabama, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
NC State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, St. Louis, Depaul, Seton Hall, Penn State, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Drexel, James Madison, VCU, UAB, Akron, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, UNLV, Arizona State, Washington, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, New Mexico State

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to drastically improve their resume:
Fordham, George Washington, Temple, Rutgers, St. John's, Iowa, Michigan, Old Dominion, UTEP, Wright State, Valparaiso, Central Michigan, Kent State, Ohio, Illinois State, Indiana State, Wichita State, Colorado State, Air Force, New Mexico, Utah, Oregon State, LSU, South Alabama, Fresno State

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Saturday Morning Update

#9 Pittsburgh 65, #7 Duke 64, OT
A great game for those that got a chance to watch it. Duke opened up a big lead in the first half, but Pitt made a strong comeback in the second. In overtime, Levance Fields hit a clutch three-pointer with about 5 seconds to go. Duke had a good shot to come back for the win, but Jon Scheyer rushed an off-balance three with about 3 seconds to go - not realizing that he had so much time left that he got a chance to try to tip in his own rebound. More importantly, however, we finally saw Duke's weakness. All year they've been relying on three point barrages, often scoring a majority of their points on kick-out three-pointers from the likes of Taylor King. But what happened in this game was that they got a bit cold, and the shots weren't falling. In all, Duke went 4-19 from behind the arc. To be fair, Pitt also went 3-19, but they don't rely on the three quite as much. What we found out in this game is that Duke can't really struggle to score off the dribble, and they are too small to get a lot of offensive rebounds. So if the threes aren't falling, they're not going to score a lot of points. Seeing as how Duke still hasn't played a true road game, their great resume so far could just be a result of a home gym that they're very comfortable with. It's very possible that once they start going on the road in the ACC that they're going to struggle. For example, I can see a team like UNC really running all over Duke at Chapel Hill. With this in mind, I'm probably going to drop Duke a seed or so in the next BP65, taking into account future road losses in the ACC.

Oklahoma 72, #20 Gonzaga 68

It's hard to really come up with one reason why Gonzaga lost this game. The free throw shooting was mediocre, but overall the Zags just didn't really look that great in any aspect of their game. This team just doesn't make sense with Mark Few as coach. For so many years, Gonzaga has been greater than the sum of its parts, with elite teams that lacked elite talent. Now, Gonzaga gets blue chip recruiting classes and oozes with talent, yet they just look so blah in all aspects. Yes, they're 9-3 with wins against St. Joe's and UConn. The RPI is 36th and the Sagarin Ranking is 29th. They're still the best team in the WCC (I'm sorry, but St. Mary's is overrated), but I just don't see how they're going to get a really high seed at this point. If they finish something like 23-7, I don't see anything higher than a 7 or 8 seed being possible for these guys. As for Oklahoma, this is a huge win for the Sooners. Up until this point they had played two elite opponents (Memphis and USC) and lost to both of them. Then they'd lost against a bad opponent (Stephen F. Austin) and done nothing else. The RPI was a mess. This win over Gonzaga gives them a win that they can brag about as they near the end of the out of conference season. If they can pull the upset at West Virginia next Saturday, they'll put themselves right back on the bubble.





Don't forget, Memphis vs. Georgetown in 40 minutes. Not to mention a lot of other great games. Check your local listings.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

And We're Back

Again, I apologize. I had to disappear for a couple of days, as I was traveling for the holidays. Updates should be back to their normal pace now. Of course, not all too much happened these past few days, as most of the kids are still in finals until the end of the week.


Georgia Tech missed a shot for a huge win against Kansas. They're going to need a really good performance in conference if they're going to make the Tourney now. Kentucky had another atrocious game... this time getting rocked by Houston. This team has Tournament talent, but I'm going to have to pull them out of the BP65 until they get their act together. I think these players might be giving up a little bit, because there just isn't a lot of effort. Meanwhile, the Valley improved its conference RPI as Wichita State dropped LSU further out of the bubble picture.



There's more analysis to read through if you go through the comments on these posts. People are paying attention to the college basketball season now, so the criticism is starting to pour in. I encourage even more people to make critical comments, of course, as long as they are constructive. Tell me what you disagree with and why. Anonymous comments that say "You're an idiot, do you even watch college basketball?" are not substantive. And usually they simply mean that the person making the comment is afraid to make their own predictions in case they end up being wrong. It's also why they don't put their name behind them. I invite constructive criticism because I want to improve my predicting powers. So, please, become part of this site by being part of the discussion.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

W-13 BP65

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. Duke
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)

3. Texas
3. Marquette
3. Texas A&M
3. Pittsburgh

4. Indiana
4. Washington State
4. Louisville
4. USC

5. Ohio State
5. Arizona
5. Villanova
5. GONZAGA (WCC)

6. Oregon
6. UConn
6. Florida
6. BYU (MWC)

7. Wisconsin
7. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
7. Syracuse
7. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)

8. Illinois
8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Clemson
8. Kansas State

9. Vanderbilt
9. California
9. Creighton
9. Missouri

10. West Virginia
10. Arkansas
10. Stanford
10. Virginia

11. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
11. Washington
11. Kentucky
11. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

12. Alabama
12. Miami (Fl)
12. Georgia
12. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

13. Mississippi
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. YALE (IVY)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
16. LIU (NORTHEAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Dayton, Duquesne, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Providence, Minnesota, Purdue, Nebraska, Texas Tech, VCU, Bradley, Drake, San Diego State, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Maryland, NC State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, St. Louis, Depaul, Seton Hall, Penn State, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Drexel, James Madison, UAB, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, UNLV, Arizona State, Auburn, Nevada

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to drastically improve their resume:
Fordham, George Washington, Temple, Rutgers, St. John's, Iowa, Michigan, Oklahoma, Old Dominion, UTEP, Wright State, Valparaiso, Akron, Central Michigan, Kent State, Ohio, Illinois State, Indiana State, Wichita State, Colorado State, Air Force, New Mexico, Utah, Oregon State, LSU, South Alabama, Fresno State

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Yeah, I Know

I've been lax with the updates (although to be fair, I've written a couple posts worth of comments on the W-14 BP65 and my most recent blog post on BasketballForum). I've been a bit busy lately. Although this is the time to be busy, as it's the slowest time of the season. Most every college had finals this week and/or has finals next week. So there aren't a lot of good games. Things will pick up again as we get close to New Year's. For now, an update on some of the biggest games since my last update:


#17 Xavier 64, Cincinnati 59
This was actually a very good game. Cincinnati seemed to have this one in hand before blowing it late. They lacked a lot of more experienced talent, so they were either stuck with inferior talent or inexperienced talent on the floor. When Xavier turned up the pressure late, the Bearcats struggled to score. Xavier hung on to prove once again that they can dig deep to win important games. This is why I think they're winning the A-10, although I do think that they are overranked. They'll lose a few games in conference, and the A-10 has a mix of pretty good teams and also some pretty bad teams. Cincy is going to learn to close out some of these games, as they are improving quickly under Mick Cronin. I really like what Cronin did with inferior talent at Murray State, and he's quickly teaching the young Bearcats how to win against superior foes. They're not going to make the Tournament this year, but they will be more of a factor in the Big East. I would say that a reasonable goal would be finishing 12th and making the Big East Tournament (remember, the Bearcats finished 16th last year).

#21 Vanderbilt 91, Depaul 85, OT
Pretty heartbreaking loss at home for a Depaul team that sported an 18 point second half lead at one point. But this accentuates the point that I made in the comments on the W-14 BP65 - Vanderbilt is simply overrated. They've played a bunch of "fairly good" and "fairly mediocre" teams. They've won every game, but so many of them have been close. A couple of those could easily have turned into losses. The odds even out as the sample size gets larger, so either Vandy has to start playing better or they're going to start to lose some close games. This disparity in how they've played and what their record is can be seen in this morning's Sagarin Rankings. Vandy has an ELO_CHESS of 7th in the nation, and a PREDICTOR of 34th. In other words, their win/loss resume is the 7th most impressive in the country so far, but they've only played like the 34th best team. And as we all know, the PREDICTOR is not a misnomer, as it is the better predictor of future performance. Vanderbilt has a good shot to make the Tournament, but they are not an elite team. People are giving them 4 and 5 seeds at the Bracket Matrix, and they're just fooling themselves. If the season ended now, a 4 or 5 seed would be what they'd probably get. But they have almost 20 games to go, and plenty of losses to accrue. Their ranking will come back to reality.

Miami (Fl) 64, Mississippi State 58
I'm not sure why Miami isn't getting as much love as Vanderbilt, as both teams have basically done the same thing. Miami has also scheduled a bunch of decent teams and beaten all of them. This might have been the best win for the Hurricanes, and they should finally get into the Top 25 this Monday. The best team they play before conference play is Winthrop, at home, so it wouldn't be a shock for this team to be 14-0 as ACC play begins. And they begin with three very winnable conference games. Don't surprised to see this team get a ton of hype over the next couple of weeks before they return to Earth. Like Vandy, this team keeps winning all of these games, but they simply don't look like an elite team. A lot of close wins, a lot of close escapes. And, like Vandy, the Sagarin ranking shows what I'm talking about. An ELO_CHESS of 15th and a PREDICTOR of 42nd. In other words, this is a pure bubble team. Over the next few weeks you'll see this team getting 3, 4 and 5 seeds at the Bracket Matrix. But if you're a Miami fan, don't get too excited. Once they lose a few games, everyone will suddenly realize that this team doesn't have a really good resume win. They're going to have to pull a big upset like North Carolina or Duke, or else keep up the good computer numbers. This will be a bubble team to the end, and they're going to need everything they can get to earn a bid.

Sunday, December 09, 2007

W-14 BP65

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. Duke
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)

3. Texas
3. Marquette
3. Texas A&M
3. Indiana

4. Washington State
4. Pittsburgh
4. Ohio State
4. Louisville

5. Arizona
5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. USC
5. UConn

6. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
6. Florida
6. Oregon
6. Villanova

7. Wisconsin
7. Clemson
7. Syracuse
7. BYU (MWC)

8. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
8. Missouri
8. Kansas State
8. Illinois

9. BUTLER (HORIZON)
9. Washington
9. Kentucky
9. Vanderbilt

10. Creighton
10. Alabama
10. Arkansas
10. California

11. Virginia
11. Mississippi State
11. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
11. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

12. Stanford
12. Maryland
12. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
12. North Carolina State

13. Miami (Fl)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)

14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. YALE (IVY)
15. MARIST (MAAC)
15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

16. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, George Washington, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Providence, West Virginia, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, VCU, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina

Other teams that can believe they have a plausible shot at an at-large bid:
Wake Forest, Fordham, Massachusetts, Cincinnati, Depaul, Seton Hall, St. John's, Penn State, Michigan, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Drexel, Hofstra, Old Dominion, Alabama-Birmingham, Houston, Southern Miss, UTEP, Wright State, Akron, Bradley, Illinois State, Indiana State, Missouri State, Wichita State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona State, Appalachian State, LSU, Ole Miss, South Alabama, Saint Mary's, Fresno State, Nevada, Utah State

Saturday, December 08, 2007

Evening Update

So many big games today, from big road wins to buzzer beaters (and canceled buzzer beaters). Too big for one post, so here's my early evening update:

#24 Arizona 78, Illinois 72, OT
There were a lot of questions about how Arizona would respond to the news that Lute Olson will not return this season. At first it seemed as if it was distracting the players, as Illinois opened up with a 12-0 lead and didn't let up for most of the game. But it turned it out it might have been jet lag more than anything else, because Arizona came back strong late in the game. One surprising thing was that the best sophomore on the floor was Jordan Hill (23 points, 14 rebounds), rather than his teammate Chase Budinger. It seems as if Budinger has lost a lot of confidence, and I don't know if it's the coaching change or the fact that there is more pressure on him to lead now that he's no longer a freshman. He was passing up open jumpers all night. Eventually, Kevin O'Neill started calling set plays for Budinger, to force him to shoot. If he can regain some confidence this can become a really good team.

Dayton 70, #11 Louisville 65
I don't know how many people got a chance to watch this game, as it was on tv at the same time as some bigger-name games, but it was a really great one to see. There was a ton of intensity, with players going all out for all 40 minutes. Louisville really looked out of sorts early on, but Dayton didn't take advantage enough to take a commanding lead. Louisville came all the way back and briefly took the lead, but Dayton came back and won going away. Pitino was obviously very unhappy with his team's play, and even made Edgar Sosa and Jerry Smith (his starting backcourt) sit out the last few minutes of the game. This win is also causing a bunch of Atlantic Ten fans to come out of the woodwork and start making all sorts of crazy declarations. I keep hearing people talk about four Atlantic Ten teams making the Tournament. Now, that has happened in recent memory (close to a decade ago), but for this year people need to chill out. I do think there is a good chance that the A-10 gets two bids, and Dayton could be one of them. If they're on the bubble in early March, you can bet that this result will be the cornerstone of their argument. Definitely a huge win.

#15 Indiana 70, Kentucky 51
Yet another disappointing result for Kentucky. It's amazing how much Billy Gillespie's stock has dropped with this awful start to his Kentucky tenure while Texas A&M appears to be reaching new highs in its first year without him. I think this sentiment is a bit overrated. For one thing, Billy Gillespie comes from the Bill Self school of coaching, which means that recruiting is the most important thing. It's all about throwing superior athletes on the floor and letting them play basketball. Right now, Gillespie just doesn't have a lot of talent to work with. Don't expect anyone to jump on this team's bandwagon anytime soon, as they don't get another opportunity for a big win until the big rivalry game against Louisville on January 5th. I still think this team is making the Tournament, but it's going to come down to the end of the season. They can forget about winning the SEC.

#10 Michigan State 68, #22 BYU 61

A huge comeback and win for Michigan State. For those keeping track, this game was technically not a true homegame for BYU, so the 34 game home winning streak is still alive. But it was in Utah, and clearly a home crowd for BYU. This Michigan State team seems to be improving by leaps and bounds each week, and they really feel like a potential Final Four team. Drew Neitzel is a great player, but a Top Ten team by himself he is not. The best part of this game was the way that he wasn't the be all and end all of MSU's offense. When they get production from players like Raymar Morgan and Goran Suton, and still have Drew Neitzel to hit the big clutch shot, they are tough for anybody to beat.

#15 Marquette 81, #23 Wisconsin 76
Another excellent game, for those who got a chance to watch. Wisconsin and Marquette play very distinct styles, and both managed to execute well for most of the game. It was interesting to watch the tempo of the game change so drastically as each team went on its own runs. In the end, Wisconsin couldn't hit their free throws, and that probably cost them the game more than anything else. For Wisconsin, this game was about whether they could handle a really athletic team after Duke ran all over them. And they did do a good job on offense of handling the press, and the defense was pretty good after a poor start. But what killed the Badgers was a lack of depth in terms of athletic guards. When Michael Flowers and Trevon Hughes went out with foul trouble, Wisconsin's backcourt was simply way too slow. As for Marquette, it's hard to imagine a guard playing much better than Dominic James did in this one. And he fits perfectly in their system. I've talked recently about how the Big East seems really wide open this season, but I don't think anybody can hang with Marquette when they play like this.

In Case You Weren't Paying Attention...

Welcome to the college basketball season! With the college football regular season complete, casual college sports fans will begin to redirect their gaze toward the hardwood. Today gets a bit of a slow start, with only the Illinois-Arizona matchup worth paying attention to right now. But a few good matchups start up soon, at 2pm eastern time, followed by a bunch of good games later in the day. Before I get to the things to watch for today, a quick review of some important games over the last few days that I haven't talked about yet:

#4 Georgetown 70, Alabama 60
A decent win for a Georgetown team that has been a bit of a question mark so far this season. Sure, they're ranked fourth in the country, but they still have yet to beat a ranked team. This is the best opponent they've played, and the Hoyas showed a lot of poise and maturity in hanging in while Bama went on a few runs and got the crowd going in the second half. Mykal Riley, especially, got the crowd going with a run of three-pointers. For the game he hit 4-of-7, moving to 44% for the season. I think Alabama is still trying to define their game without Ronald Steele, but they should be pretty good as the season goes on. I still think they will be a Tournament team, although they'll obviously have to pull out some of these close games eventually. They get three good opportunities at home before the conference season starts, against Missouri State, George Washington and Clemson. If they can win at least two of those, then the out-of-conference resume will be good enough for an at-large bid.

Drake 79, Iowa State 44
I want to take a moment to point out how great the start of the season has been for Drake. I didn't think they would be a good team in the preseason, and I still don't think they're going to make the Tournament in the end, but it's hard to not be impressed with what the Bulldogs have done so far. This is their biggest win so far, but they also have six other wins including a good one over Duquesne. They have one loss, but ask a fan of Oregon how easy it is to play at St. Mary's. They get one more chance at a good out-of-conference win when they head to Iowa City on Friday to play the Hawkeyes. After that it becomes all about the conference schedule, as Drake probably needs to finish in 4th place or better in the Valley to get an at-large bid. As for Iowa State, the return of Wes Johnson is a welcome development. They now have a whole lot of size, and should be able to rebound with anybody. But they lack a single real playmaker on the outside, and they simply can't create a lot of good shooting opportunities. I think this team is going to really struggle to score all season, and they'll be lucky to make the NIT.

#6 Washington State 51, #19 Gonzaga 47

A very important game not only for pride in the state of Washington, but because of the national implications. For one thing, Washington State's ranking was completely undeserved up until this point. Their best win before this one was a three-pointer at Baylor. A win at Gonzaga really establishes the Cougars as an elite team yet again. Although one worry has got to be ballhandling. They couldn't handle Gonzaga's tight defense, turning the ball over 16 times while creating only eight assists. It would have cost them the game if the Zags hadn't done them a favor by shooting 26% from the field. I'm still not sold on this being a Top Ten team, but they will certainly contend for a top spot in the Pac-10. As for Gonzaga, they have to be frustrated at the missed opportunity. Poor shooting cost them a game that they should have won. They took ten more shots from the field and three more free throws, and it's not as if Washington State shot the lights out either (only 25% from behind the arc). Regardless, Gonzaga will yet again end up with a pretty good out-of-conference resume. But yet again, they'll have to basically run through the WCC if they want to be the higher seed in Round one of the Tournament.

#21 Villanova 68, LSU 67
A heartbreaking loss for an LSU team that really needed a win. They led by 21 points with eight and a half minutes to go, but let Villanova come all the way back and win on a Dante Cunningham layup with under ten seconds to go. LSU still seems to be suffering from a Final Four hangover, in addition to the fact that this team is not really any more talented than the team that finished with an RPI of 89 last year. If I had to pick one thing to pick on, it's a lack of an interior presence, but there isn't really any one obvious fix that needs to be made. LSU is now 0-3 this season against teams from BCS conferences, and desperately needs to finish December strong if they want to remain in the bubble discussion. As for Nova, certainly a very impressive comeback. They have established themselves as a Top 25 team and a real contender in the Big East. Unlike the Big 12, Pac 10 and ACC, there is no real great team in the Big East. Louisville, Georgetown and Pitt are all ranked high, but all still have major question marks. At this point, anybody talking potential Big East champions has got to mention the Wildcats. Nova doesn't have any real tough teams to play before the conference season, but they open up with a big matchup against Pitt on January 6th. Home games against elite teams are essential if you want to win a BCS conference, so keep an eye on that one.

Friday, December 07, 2007

How NOT To Rank Teams

http://www.basketballforum.com/blog_callback.php?b=49


Hot NOT To Rank Teams

Posted Today at 05:08 PM by BasketballPredictions
After last week's talk about ranking teams, I want to follow up with a quick discussion of all of the wrong techniques that people use to rank teams. What is remarkable to me is that basically everybody uses illogical processes to come to their ranking conclusions.

All of these mistakes basically boil down to the same issue: sampling bias. If two teams could play each other in a 15 game series, the winner of a majority of games would most likely be a better team. But since two teams will be lucky to play once when you have 340 teams and ~30 games, this simply isn't possible. Since we have a small sample, we have to acknowledge randomness. Teams do not play to the same ability every single day, so just because a result happens one day doesn't mean the same result will happen the next time those two teams play. That brings us to our first faux-pas:

1. If Team A beats Team B, this does not imply that Team A is better than Team B: On one level, we all understand this. When Oral Roberts beat Kansas last year, nobody ranked Oral Roberts ahead of Kansas. When Mercer beat USC this year, nobody moved Mercer ahead of USC in their rankings. We understand that upsets happen, that one team can get hot and another team can go home, that one team can just get all the lucky bounces. And yet we seem to forget this when the rankings of the teams in question get closer. For example, when Texas beat UCLA this past week, it was assumed that Texas needed to be moved ahead in the rankings. Try going on college basketball message boards and ranking UCLA ahead - people will attack you for not realizing that Texas beat them last week. I mean, Texas won, they have to be better!

What we forget is that the same dynamics that allow Oral Roberts to beat Kansas allow the 8th best team to beat the best team. Now, I'm not arguing that UCLA is definitely better than Texas. Maybe you think that Texas is better. Maybe you think that the game that you saw this past week gave a lot of evidence that Texas was better. And that's fine. But the simple fact that Texas beat them in a single game does not imply, a posteriori, that Texas is better.

If you're not convinced, think of this: If you're saying that Texas is a better team because they won then you are making the logical argument that if two similar teams play that the better team will always win. This brings us to two absurd conclusions: If you know in advance which team is better you can gamble on them and win infinite money, and if those teams played 30 teams the same team would win each time. At the very least, if you think that Texas is better than UCLA then you are saying that in a 15 game series, Texas is going to win atleast 8. Right now they're only up 1-0, so does that imply that the series is over?

2. If Team A beats Team B by more than they beat Team C, this does not imply that Team C is better than Team B: This follows directly from error #1. Again, teams have good days and bad days - sometimes everything rolls in, and sometimes everything rolls out. So, not only can a team like Mercer beat a team like USC every once in a while, but they can also play a team like USC close. This doesn't imply that Mercer is then better than a team that USC blows out. This issue also leads to my third common faux-pas:

3. Don't discount team psychology: When I'm talking about teams having good and bad days, I don't want it to sound like it's total randomness. In fact, most often it's all about a team's psychology. From afar, we can't know everything going on a team's locker room, but there are a few situations that we can predict. One is that teams often play with less intensity when a big opponent lies ahead (the "look ahead game"). Another is that teams often are much more motivated than their opponents when they are big underdogs, because it's simply hard for big-time teams to get motivated for a mediocre opponent. Meanwhile, a bad team can view the game as their most important of the year. Finally, teams often really struggle when the limelight comes onto them and they start feeling national pressure. We saw a lot of this during the past college football season, where teams like South Florida and California played great until people started whispering "National Title." My favorite case of this came in last season's Big East football season. West Virginia was riding high and thinking national title when they headed to Louisville for what was the biggest game in Louisville football history. No surprise, Louisville pulled the upset. That thrust Louisville in the national title spotlight, and the following week they fell at Rutgers in the biggest game in Rutgers history. Finally, the following weekend, Rutgers felt the national spotlight and fell to a mediocre Cincinnati squad.

I don't mean to keep bringing up college football results, but it's just so easy to find so many great examples of team psychology. This past weekend, nobody expected Pittsburgh to knock of West Virginia, and I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I called that one. But I did find myself dumbfounded by something Kirk Herbstreit said the morning before the game. He said that Pitt was a decent team, but that with the National Title on the line there was no way that West Virginia would blow the game. In fact, as any sports psychologist would tell you, West Virginia was most likely to blow the game when the thought of a National Title game wore on them. For a similar reason, this is why the Stanford-USC upset was so much bigger than the Appalachian State-Michigan upset. Depending on which computer ranking you look at, App State is slightly better than Stanford or vice versa. Either way, it's clear that the teams are pretty similar in overall ability. But, App State was a I-AA team playing Michigan in week one. You can guarantee that Michigan players were thinking ahead to their bigger opponents, figuring that they could just show up and win without really trying. Meanwhile, App State had thought about that game for months, as it turned out to be one of the biggest victories in school history. On the other hand, Stanford was a conference opponent. It was USC's 5th game of the season, and USC players can also remember back to when Stanford was good. They were going to come out far more motivated than Michigan was for App State. Which is what made their loss in that game so much more surprising.



Before I get too far off topic, I want to remind people again of the central point I'm trying to get at. Judging teams is difficult, and there is no simple formula. You can't just read the box score and move teams around because of a score. You have to watch the games, take into account player psychology, and try to judge how good teams really are relative to each other. Even if Team A would win 80% of the time against Team B, they'll still lose 20% of the time. So you have to judge if Team A's loss to Team B was the 20% possibility, or the 80% possibility.

I'm sorry that I don't have a perfect formula for you, but it's not my goal here to fundamentally change the way that people think about sports and the world. But if I can keep a few less people from saying "You idiot, how can you have Texas behind UCLA, they beat UCLA!", then I'll have accomplished something positive.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Tough Few Days For USC

#4 Kansas 59, #24 USC 55
#2 Memphis 62, USC 58, OT
USC got to play two of the top four ranked teams in the country in a three day period, came within shouting distance of winning both, but ended up losing both. As for as the Kansas game, yet another close win for the Jayhawks. This is a very encouraging development. Last year it seems like they always made a few big mistakes down the stretch of close games. This year they are playing with much more maturity and consistency. As for the Memphis game, you would think that result was actually a big discouraging for the Tigers. Davon Jefferson played great for the Trojans (12 points and 13 rebounds), but for the most part USC's offense was completely inept. The Memphis defense was as good as it's been all year, but USC did them a favor by shooting 29%. These early season Tournaments are so important to Memphis because they don't get any good opponents in conference. They get Georgetown in two and a half weeks, followed by Arizona. And, in a pure sign of frustration at the lack of in-conference teams to play, have schedule Tennessee and Gonzaga in the middle of the conference season. But to bring the discussion back to USC, they missed some big chances, but showed that they are an elite team to be reckoned with. As Dick Vitale pointed out, there's no way this is only the sixth best team in the Pac-10.

Arizona 78, #9 Texas A&M 67
A very impressive comeback for Arizona. A&M went up 20 points in the first half, and the Arizona crowd was absolutely silent. The Wildcats did the essential job of making up a little bit of ground before halftime. They then went on a huge run to start the second half, bringing the crowd to life. For the first time, Texas A&M was exposed without Acie Law. Last year, when they needed a basket, they could let Law create something. This year they don't really have a go-to guy. Having a lot of balance is good in that your team rarely has a real bad day all the way around, and you can survive injuries better. But it also hurts you when you're facing a hostile crowd and your opponent is going on a run. Arizona also showed a little bit of why I thought this was going to be such a good team in the preseason. It's still not clear when Lute Olson will be back, but this team can go far with him.

#8 Texas 63, #1 UCLA 61
The second half of a great doubleheader. And at first, this game seemed to parallel the Zona/A&M matchup. Texas went up big (16 points) in the first half. UCLA made up a bit of ground by halftime and then went on a big run to start the second half. In what seemed like only a few moments, the Bruins came all the way back and took a one point lead. But unlike Texas A&M, the Longhorns have a go-to guy. More than one, actually. DJ Augustin had a big 19 points, and Damion James put up 19 and 10. Meanwhile, this was still only Darren Collison's second game back, and I think he's still struggling to get up to speed. Now, just because Texas won this game, this doesn't make them the better team. I'll talk about this in the follow up to my last column, which will have the apt title "How NOT to Rank Teams". I still think UCLA is one of the two best teams in the country. But Texas is clearly in the same league as Kansas, and the battle for the Big 12 title will be as good as any in the country, perhaps only matched by Carolina/Duke in the ACC.

Miami (Fl) 66, St. John's 47
This score was very deceptive. It was about a 3-to-7 point game most of the way before Miami hit their free-throws at the end of the game. But I have to say, Miami did a great job of scheduling. They created the exact schedule necessary to build a great RPI, which is why they still have the #1 RPI in the country despite not even being a Top 25 team. They scheduled a lot of decent teams, like St. John's, but no great teams that can beat them. On the 13th they head to Mississippi State, and they also have a game against Winthrop. But other than that, the rest of the out of conference schedule is really easy. I'm not ready to move this team into the BP65 yet, but if they can with both of the aforementioned games I'll have to put some serious thought into it. They'd be 14-0, meaning that even a 9-7 season in the ACC would probably be enough. As for St. John's, they were off to a good start, but this loss isn't a very good one. They have a lot of talent, but simply no real system on the floor. Their offense consists of an array of different players trying to score in one-on-one opportunities. They need to learn how to pass and play like a team if they're going to get back in the mix in the Big East in the next few years.

Sunday, December 02, 2007

How To Rank Teams

http://www.basketballforum.com/blog.php?b=39


How To Rank Teams

Posted Today at 03:17 PM by BasketballPredictions
Everybody here has tried to make Top 25 lists. Everybody has criticized the AP or Coaches polls. Why is it so difficult to make a list? We're just ranking the teams from best to worst, aren't we?


Actually, most people don't. And this is the first issue of contention in rankings. Before I really get into my analysis, I want to warn you that I'm going to use a bunch of college football examples. I know that I'm a basketball writer, but it's much easier to analyze football polls since they only play one game per week. In basketball, teams generally play two or three games per week, so it can be harder to see how a team is affected by a single game. If you're still with me, here we go:



College football is abuzz today with BCS talk. Who is Ohio State going to play for the national title? It's going to be LSU, but should it? LSU entered the week ranked behind Georgia, Kansas and Va Tech, and wasn't all too impressive in needing a pick-six to beat a Tennessee team that is a marginal Top 25 squad. If Missouri and West Virginia had both won, LSU would have stayed ranked behind Georgia, Kansas and Virginia Tech. Remember, pollsters almost never move one team ahead of another team (especially late in the season) unless one team loses during the week. But since both of those teams went down, everybody decided that Georgia and Kansas shouldn't be in the national title game since they didn't even qualify for their conference title games. And Virginia Tech shouldn't have ended up in the title game ahead of LSU since they got rocked by LSU earlier in the year. So suddenly LSU jumped all of those teams to move to #2. But if they were supposed to be ahead of all of those teams despite a mediocre performance in the SEC title game, shouldn't they have been ahead of those teams to begin with?

Was LSU worse than Kansas last week, and better than Kansas this week?

Nobody even asked. Nobody even cared. It's about what teams "deserve". We have this archaic system of what a team "deserves" in the rankings. If you win then you don't get passed by anyone behind you. If you lose then you drop. If you beat another team then you should be ranked ahead of them, as long as the rest of your resumes are atleast similar.

But then, since we all intuitively think that these Top 25 polls rank the 25 best teams, we rationalize why these rankings represent the best teams. Yesterday morning I listened to Mark May and Craig James argue over Missouri and Oklahoma. One of them argued that Oklahoma was better because they beat Missouri in their one matchup. The other argued that Missouri was better because they had one loss and Oklahoma had two losses. I forget which argument was made by which "analyst" because I had an aneurysm trying to listen. Both of those arguments are absurd - when Gardner Webb beat Kentucky, does that make Gardner Webb a better team? Sam Houston State is undefeated - does that make them better than 1-loss Michigan State? Those are stupid examples!, you argue. Besides, that's just college football. Basketball analysts don't think that way, right?


I refer you to CBS Sportsline's only columnist devoted entirely to college basetball, Gary Parrish. He had a column a few weeks back, for which I can't figure out how to make a direct link... Go here and scroll down to the November 12th post. He's complaining about the "baffling" basketball polls. Kentucky lost to Gardner Webb and some voters dared to give them some votes. USC lost to Mercer and received 4 votes. Here's the conclusion of Parish's rant:

It's one thing to take a loss when an underdog hits 15 3-pointers or something crazy. I get that. But such wasn't the case with Kentucky or USC. Those two teams were completely dismantled at home, just out-played and out-classed. So get your acts together, you silly writers. I have copies of your ballots and I know who you are. For now, I'm leaving your names out of it because some of you are friends of mine. But this is the last chance. Unless you think Mercer and Gardner-Webb are totally awesome then you cannot still rank USC and Kentucky until they start to look totally awesome. Don't make me go over this again.


So is he right? Since USC got outplayed by Mercer, is it possible to think that they're still a Top 25 team? Of course you can! Even the best team in the country is going to have a bad day once in a while. USC football lost to Stanford. West Virginia football lost to Pitt. If that happened in week one, Parish would have scolded any writer who dared think those were Top 25 teams. But how can anyone argue that those AREN'T two of the 25 best teams in the country?

Basically, Parish is arguing that we ignore everything that we see on the field. We don't make any judgments like "Gee, USC is really missing Daniel Hackett and Davon Jefferson against Mercer". We simply say "USC lost to Mercer" and cease any further intellectual analysis. It is this type of thinking that is "baffling" to me.




Okay, Jeff, so how do you rank teams? How can we just dismiss bad performances as bad games and not include them in the rankings? Certainly it has to be held against USC when they lose to Mercer! So what's your plan?


Well this isn't an easy answer. It's incredibly difficult to rank 340 teams with a small sample size. It's even more difficult in college football where you have 120 teams and 12 games to work with. What I try to do is take in every game for a team. Separate the games into different categories. You have "good" performances, "poor" performances, "typical" performances, and then "Everything that could go right going right" performances, and "The worst game in years" performances. Then, when you try to compare teams, try to compare similar performances. Is Team A better than Team B if both put up "typical" performances. Usually when people are completely out of whack in their rankings it's because they only watched one or two games of a team, and rank Team A's "poor" performance with the best game Team B every played.

If it seems like one team has a high number of "poor" performances then it means you're overrating their "typical" performance. For example, University of Kansas basketball last year. They only had one loss all year against elite teams (against Texas A&M). Their other regular season losses qualify as "poor" performances, with the losses to Oral Roberts, Depaul and Texas Tech. But three "poor" losses in one season has to be held against Kansas. The fact was that the team was fairly inconsistent for an elite team. And this was why I advised people against taking Kansas in the Tournament, since on any given day they could fall on their face.


In the end, all of this boils down to an issue that I'm always harping on. We have to try as best as we can to not suffer from sampling bias. We can't judge teams on a single game. We can't expect that if two teams play that the same result will happen on any given day. Team A may be far better than Team B, and be able to win 9 times out of 10. But sometimes Team B will win, and this won't change the fact that Team A would win the matchup 90% of the time. It requires a lot of perspective to be able to properly compare teams that often play such disparate schedules. And it's impossible to be perfect at this. But at least we should all understand the process. Understand what are valid reasons to rank one team ahead of another, and what aren't. If we don't understand what we're doing wrong then we'll never fix our mistakes.

There Was Basketball, Too

Believe it or not, there were some important basketball results yesterday. In case you spent the day watching college football, here's what you missed:

#7 Duke 79, Davidson 73
Davidson did a really good job of this one. Duke kept opening up double-digit leads, and Davidson kept coming back. Duke did a good job of keeping a relative muzzle on Stephen Curry, who only scored 20 points. In all Duke actually out-shot Davidson from behind the arc, although that's not a big surprise for anybody who watched the Duke-Wisconsin game. Again, Duke received a balanced attack, with five scorers in double digits. The only thing they have to watch for are turnovers. Greg Paulus hasn't convinced me that he's a great ballhandler, and they might need to start Jon Scheyer against teams like North Carolina that will press and that have great athleticism.

Vanderbilt 92, Georgia Tech 79

With this win, Vanderbilt makes its first appearance in the BP65. Another game with absolutely great shooting (55% from the field, 46% from behind the arc) and Georgia Tech didn't really have a chance. In all, Vandy is now 7-0. You might point out that Vanderbilt doesn't have any real glamor wins, but what they have are a lot of good wins. A majority of their games are what I would call losable: Utah State, South Alabama, at Bradley, at Toledo, etc. They get a few more chances at decent out of conference wins, including Wake Forest later this week. Their out of conference schedule probably won't give them any jaw-dropping wins, but it will build a very good RPI. They are going to have a good record and a strong strength of schedule. The problem is that they're in the SEC East. Right now I'd put the Commodores ahead of Georgia and South Carolina, but they probably have to finish above Kentucky or Florida to move into third place and put themselves in prime position for an at-large bid.

#16 Butler 65, Ohio State 46

Yet another atrocious offensive performance out of the Buckeyes. I can't keep calling these games flukes, because they're becoming the norm. Against North Carolina the failure came in the shooting game, where they hit less than 1-for-4 from two-point land. In this one their shooting was acceptable (46% from the field), but they turned the ball over a remarkable 24 times. And despite a size advantage, they were slightly outrebounded (including 10-to-8 among offensive rebounds). Those two stats combined added up to 56 shots from the field for Butler to 44 for Ohio State. And OSU only got to the line six times. It's almost impossible to win if you have to take 12 fewer shots and 7 fewer free throws than your opponent. I hadn't thought about this before, but Ohio State is really lacking a true point guard. Jamar Butler is really a two-guard, as is Jon Diebler. They need to find a solid ballhandler, because they're going to find better defenses in the Big Ten than Butler threw at them.

#15 Indiana 64, #22 Southern Illinois 51

Possibly the most impressive game yet for Eric Gordon. Southern Illinois shut down OJ Mayo and Daniel Hackett, but they couldn't hold Gordon to less than 22 points in this one. Jamarcus Ellis also had a bit of a coming-out game, joining DJ White with a double-double of his own. One thing to worry about with this Southern Illinois team is that they seem to struggle to rebound. Their defense will be good, but if they keep giving up so many offensive rebounds they're going to struggle to keep scoring low. The Salukis can't score a lot of points, so they need low-scoring games if they're going to be an elite team. Other than Randal Falker, there is almost nothing on the inside to speak of. There are some big bodies on the bench, and perhaps they'll start getting some more minutes to see what they can do.

California 86, Missouri 72

Like Vanderbilt, California has quietly had a very solid start to their season, and earned their first spot in the BP65 today. What's even more impressive about this team is that seven of their top eight scorers are sophomores and freshmen. That means they might blow some close games, but it also means they're going to improve as the year goes on. With Arizona struggling without Lute Olson and Washington a real question mark, California could finish as high as third or fourth in the Pac 10. Ryan Anderson, specifically, should soon become a household name. He might be the Pac-10 player of the year, as a sophomore. I bet he goes to the NBA after this season, so Cal needs to exploit his abilities while they still have him. The Golden Bears have one real test remaining in the out of conference season, when they head to Manhattan to play Kansas State next Sunday. A win there and Cal will probably be 10-0 when the Pac-10 season begins. The Pac-10 has been a big disappointing, but if Cal can go 10-8 and finish at 20-8 would they really get left out of the Tournament? And the way they're playing, something like 11-7 or 12-6 is very realistic.

W-15 BP65

1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. INDIANA (BIG 10)
2. Duke

3. Texas
3. Michigan State
3. Marquette
3. Washington State

4. Ohio State
4. Texas A&M
4. Louisville
4. Arizona

5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
5. Pittsburgh
5. UConn

6. Wisconsin
6. USC
6. Kentucky
6. Washington

7. Oregon
7. Florida
7. Syracuse
7. BYU (MWC)

8. Clemson
8. Mississippi State
8. Alabama
8. Missouri

9. Kansas State
9. Illinois
9. BUTLER (HORIZON)
9. Vanderbilt

10. Villanova
10. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. North Carolina State

11. Creighton
11. Virginia
11. Arkansas
11. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

12. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
12. California
12. Oklahoma State
12. Stanford

13. Maryland
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)

14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. YALE (IVY)
15. MARIST (MAAC)
15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

16. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, George Washington, Rhode Island, Depaul, Notre Dame, Providence, West Virginia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Purdue, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, VCU, Houston, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, San Diego State, Auburn, Nevada, Utah State

Other teams that can believe they have a plausible shot at an at-large bid:
Wake Forest, Fordham, Massachusetts, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, St. John's, Penn State, Baylor, Iowa State, Drexel, Hofstra, Old Dominion, Alabama-Birmingham, Southern Miss, UTEP, Wright State, Akron, Bradley, Illinois State, Indiana State, Missouri State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona State, Appalachian State, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, South Carolina, South Alabama, Saint Mary's, Fresno State, Hawaii

Saturday, December 01, 2007

Non-ACC/Big Ten Results

#9 Texas A&M 76, Alabama 63
Another impressive win for Mark Turgeon's boys. And again, it's not a single star doing it, but rather a lot of players sharing the ball well. They also shot really well, including 53% overall from the field. Alabama, meanwhile, is playing their way out of the Tournament. Richard Hendrix has continued to be an All-SEC caliber player, but nobody else is stepping up. The Tide did a good job of scheduling, so they have time to make this up. They've managed to schedule a few decent opponents, all of whom come to Tuscaloosa. Georgetown, Missouri State, Clemson and George Washington all come to town. Alabama needs atleast two of those to salvage the out of conference season. Texas A&M's out of conference season is already a success with this win and the pummeling of Ohio State. Don't look past the game at Arizona tomorrow, but after that it's an easy schedule until 2008.

George Mason 85, Drexel 38
An unbelievably impressive win for George Mason. Let's remember that Drexel is a bubble team, or atleast that they were until this blowout. I can tack off the stats in this one: 51% shooting to 30%, 40 rebounds to 24, 23 assists to 7. You expect a team that shoots far better than its opponent to win the defensive rebounding battle, but the Patriots even won the offensive rebounding battle 11 to 6. Drexel definitely needs to bounce back today against Creighton, or a lot of people will start writing them off. As for George Mason, they deserve a spot in the Top 25, although they might not get it yet. They follow this up with five very winnable out of conference games, followed by an easy start to the conference season before they head to Hofstra in mid-January. That would put them at 15-1, which would obviously be good enough for a spot in the Top 25. If George Mason can run through the conference with something like a 16-2 record, the question won't be if they'd deserve an at-large bid, but how highly they'll be seeded. Something like a 5 or 6 seed is not out of the question for this bunch.

#17 Oregon 80, Kansas State 77
A big road victory for an Oregon team still bouncing back from the St. Mary's loss. Michael Beasley showed up, as usual, with 24 points on 10-17 shooting. Not another 30-20 game, but he also wasn't playing Sacramento State either. Oregon's attack, meanwhile, was very balanced. Tajuan Porter, Maarty Leunen and several others played well. The biggest question about this team is its size (Leunen is the only regular over 6'6"), but K-State doesn't have the size to exploit anybody on the inside. One thing you really have to like about this Oregon team is how they do all of the little things well. Ernie Kent has brought a bit of the Kamikaze Kids Version 2.0 to his coaching here. This was never more apparent than on the final play of regulation, when Jacob Pullen's layup was called off because of an offensive foul drawn by Joevan Catron. The next test for the Ducks? Probably not until conference play starts and they head to Arizona on January 5th.

Big Ten/ACC Wrap Up

Another year, another ACC win. Not that an overall win really means much, as I'll talk later about different ways to rank conferences. I'm fleshing that out for a post on Basketballforums (don't worry, it will be simul-posted here as well). Since it's the individual games are the ones that matter, let's get to those:

#15 Indiana 83, Georgia Tech 79
Again, it's a good thing for this Indiana team to be pulling out close games this season. But this matchup probably shouldn't have been this close. Not only is Indiana the better team, but Georgia Tech has struggled on the road. Remember, they went 1-8 in true road games last season. This game was pretty even the whole way and at every position, although Eric Gordon and DJ White excelled. Indiana did a good job of getting to the hoop and drawing fouls (38 free throw attempts), but you have to wonder if they'll get as many of those on the road. DJ White dominated the boards in this one (18 points and 14 rebounds), and he won't be able to do that in the Big Ten. One clear thing during this Challenge is that the ACC is faster but the Big Ten is bigger.

#18 Clemson 61, Purdue 58
This very tight contest should actually give hope to Purdue. Like most people, I figured Purdue would take a huge step back without Carl Landry, but they have looked pretty good early on. Right now, they've probably been the sixth best team in the Big Ten. This game was very tight the whole way, with the biggest lead for either team being six points. Purdue struggled from beyond the arc, and Clemson got the homefield free throw advantage, so you have to say that Purdue would have won this if they'd been at home. Purdue gets a few more chances to build the resume, including Indiana State at home later today. They also get Louisville at home in two weeks, and go on the road for Missouri and Iowa State. If they can steal two of those and win all of the rest of the games they're supposed to win, that would put them at 9-3 during the out of conference. If they can finish 10-8 in the Big Ten they'd be 19-11 overall and could pick up that 20th win in the first round of the Big Ten Tourney. They'd be a real bubble team, which is more than most people would have thought just a few weeks ago.

#7 Duke 82, #20 Wisconsin 58

Duke looked ridiculously good in this one. Their pressure seemed to rattle Wisconsin early on. And along with some perceived unfair reffing, the Badgers got a bit too riled up. You could see it in their shooting from the field, which was pretty poor for that squad (37%). Meanwhile, Duke couldn't miss a shot, hitting 9-for-17 from beyond the arc in the first half alone. Taylor King, especially, was unconscious. His final stats are deceptive (5 for 10 on three-pointers) because he was shooting some of those from about 30 feet out. I wouldn't be so discouraged from the Wisconsin perspective, as this game was a huge step up from the competition they'd had so far. It's pretty tough to play your first road game at Cameron Indoor, and the Badgers simply got off to a bad start. If nothing else, Big Ten fans got to discover freshman Jon Leuer, who seems to fit Bo Ryan's system perfectly. Like Joe Krabbenhoft, he can play any position on the floor. I also still think Wisconsin is one of the four best teams in the Big Ten, because....

Maryland 69, Illinois 61
A very disappointing result for Illinois. Certainly, Maryland had the homefield advantage. And Illinois was just cold from the field. But Maryland is not a very good team this year, and this is the kind of game Illinois has to win if they're going to get a good seed in the Tournament. They've broken away from the lower teams in the Big Ten, and just about everybody ranks them in the Top 5, but this result keeps them from joining the Big Four at the top of the conference. The Illini get Arizona at home next week, and that would certainly be a good resume builder. As for Maryland, this win goes well with the win at Missouri to create a decent set of out of conference victories. If they can survive VCU tomorrow and BC next weekend, they'll have a very easy run until the ACC season starts up. I still severely doubt that Maryland will make the Tournament, but they could find themselves in the Top 25 when they play their first ACC game. They have a good shot at being 14-2 when they had to Cassell Coliseum. Even 13-3 will probably get them ranked. If they can go 14-2, then a 9-7 ACC season will very likely be enough to get into the Tournament.

#2 North Carolina 66, Ohio State 55

The headliner of the Challenge actually had these two teams playing below their best. Carolina was short Ty Lawson, and Ohio State was short an offense. Ohio State shot an atrocious 27%, including an atypical 1-for-10 from Kosta Koufos. You have to give North Carolina's defenders a lot of credit for this, especially the way they excelled. They showed great perimeter defense in shutting down Stephen Curry in the season opener. In this one they showed excellent interior defense, and not only on Koufos. In all, Ohio State shot an unbelievable 9-for-37 (24%) from two-point land. And it wasn't because UNC was being rough, as they were only called for 13 fouls and Ohio State only got nine free throw attempts despite it being a home game. A possible big story to keep an eye on will be Carolina's undefeated record. You can't look past today's game in Rupp Arena, but after that the Tar Heels have a real easy end to the out of conference season. In addition, their ACC schedule is backloaded. I don't see a real losable game until Duke comes to town on February 6th. A 22-0 Carolina team against Duke? Dick Vitale might need to be medicated.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Catching Up

Just a quick catch-up for action from the past few days that I haven't talked about yet. I won't discuss any of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, as I'll have a post mortem after all of the games are over:

#4 Kansas 76, Arizona 72, OT
Kansas showed a lot of toughness pulling out a good win at home. They're going to be pretty tough to beat at Allen Fieldhouse this year. Don't be fooled by Arizona's lack of a ranking, as they're a very talented team. They shot well (48% from behind the arc) and got to the line (21 times) in this one. Kansas struggled to pull out close games last year, so this was a welcome turn of events for Jayhawks fans. This game was won with ballhandling, and I hope Arizona gets that under control when Lute Olson gets back. Chase Budinger will be a household name soon enough, and he should be leading this team far into the Tournament. But they're going to have to pull out some of these close games to build the resume for a top seed.

USC 70, #18 Southern Illinois 45
A shocking result for sure. What intrigued me about this game was how Southern Illinois came up with a gameplan, succeeded in achieving what they wanted to achieve, and lost big anyway. The Salukis have some great perimeter defenders, and can shut down just about anybody on any given day. So coming into this one, you'd figure that if you could contain OJ Mayo, Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson that you would beat USC. And SIU did that for the most part, holding that trio to 25 points. No worries, though, because freshman Davon Jefferson came out of nowhere to post 18. More production came from other players coming off the bench. Meanwhile, SIU looked a bit unsure of itself on offense. They had only played three games before this point, and none against an elite team or hostile crowd. I think they perform a whole lot better if this game is in another month. I wouldn't jump off the SIU bandwagon yet - this result says more about how deep USC is than about SIU not being a very good team.

Davidson 71, Appalachian State 60
Yes, we have now have had a major intra-conference matchup. In November. What did we learn here? Davidson is going to run through the SoCon. Stephen Curry hit nine three-pointers as Davidson won on the road against their only real competition for the conference title. Don't be surprised to see Davidson run the table in the SoCon this season. And they will need it if they want a decent seed, because the Western Michigan loss really took the shine off this very-hyped team. Assuming they don't win on the road at Duke or UCLA, a matchup at NC State is their only remaining shot to build the resume. The recent criticism of Davidson is that they can beat bad teams, but lose to good teams. They went 0-5 against the RPI Top 100 last year, and need to prove that they can beat someone good this year.

UMass 107, Syracuse 100
A crazy game all around, and UMass walks out with the big win. I have to admit that I'm pleasantly surprised by the Minutemen this year, in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year without Stephane Lasme and Rashaun Freeman. With this win, they're already back on the bubble. UMass won this game with great shooting, but they were getting a ton of layups and easy put-ins as well. Syracuse has some very talented offensive players, but they don't seem quite as motivated to make great plays on defense. 97 points to Siena? 91 points to Washington? 80 points to Fordham? Yikes. Jonny Flynn and Donte Greene are a very talented freshman duo, but they need to play with a little bit more maturity. We don't need to see you pose for the cameras every time you score two points. Try holding teams to under 100 points before you start showing off. Sorry... I didn't mean to turn into Jay Mariotti. I wouldn't care about the preening and showing off if Syracuse won some big games and played some good defense. This is a very talented team, but defense like this will mean a repeat trip to the NIT.

Monday, November 26, 2007

New Sponsorship & Partnership

I'd like to take a brief moment to talk about something other than the most recent results. First of all, many of you have noticed my new sponsor in the "Sponsors" section (right underneath the "Partner Websites" section). TickCo is a direct competitor of Stubhub, and the two sites seem to be basically identical. So if you want to buy tickets to events, do me a favor and buy them through the link on my blog. Everything I post on this blog is free, and I don't ever ask for any money from anybody. I put a lot of time into this, and a little bit of sponsorship money helps. I don't get a piece of each sale (my payment is a flat yearly fee), but the more of you who buy tickets through TickCo the more likely they'll want to continue our relationship. You're going to be buying tickets anyway, so help me out by buying them through my link.


Also, I've been invited to take part in Basketballforum.com. The idea will be to write a longer column once every week or two on a deeper issue. Everything that I write there will be simul-posted here as well, so there won't be anything that I write that won't be available here. But it looks like an interesting community, and something that people who visit here might want to be part of as well. My first blog post is up, and as promised, here it is:


I'd like to introduce myself to BasketballForum.com. My name is Jeff and I run the website BasketballPredictions. I was invited here by "TM" in what I hope will be a symbiotic relationship.

I'm not going to post here daily, because anybody who wants my daily updates can just visit my blog. What I plan on doing is to write weekly or bi-weekly columns where I can go in-depth into real issues. I'm not going to have any "These are who I think are the Top 5 teams in the country" posts, because I don't think that really adds anything. A few ideas that I've already begun to flesh out will be discussions on:

1) Different approaches to "bracketology"
2) Different approaches to team rankings (namely, Top 25 polls)
3) Different approaches to ranking conferences
4) The Big Ten Network - what the real issues are (and why they aren't the ones being discussed)
5) Expanding The Tournament, creating more tournaments, and expanding conference tournaments.... or not?


I won't necessarily write about them in that order, but those are five issues that I think are fundamental to college basketball discussions. I also am very open to other ideas that others would like to discuss. At this point I'd like to open up the floor. Let's "explore the canvas."

So, what would you like to talk about?