2007-08 Preview: Small Conferences, Part III

Big West Conference


Long Beach State ran away with the Big West this past season, but I can't possibly imagine the 49ers repeating. With their top seven scorers lost to graduation, they don't return a single player who had more than 10 minutes per game this past season. And with their coach out, this program is really in flux. UC Santa Barbara, on the other hand, will also return a lot of talent, highlighted by rising-Seniors Alex Harris and Chris Devine (35 ppg, 11 rpg combined).

Cal Poly also returns a lot of talent, although I expect that they're still a year away from being able to win the Big West. In my mind, the most returning talent resides with Cal State Fullerton. They will have the speed and size and overall athleticism to play with anybody in the
Big West. The biggest question will be trying to replace the scoring of Bobby Brown (20 ppg), but I think they can do it. Cal State Fullerton is the pick.


Horizon League

Butler, obviously, was the story of the Horizon League this past season. This strong league should get even stronger as Valparaiso joins with a lot of talent of its own. Starting with the other contenders, Illinois-Chicago returns a lot of experienced talent. UW-Green Bay brings in another good recruiting class to go with its young roster. They probably don't have enough talent yet to win the Horizon, but they are clearly an improving program.

Certainly, Wright State had an outstanding year that was highlighted by a Tourney birth. They don't lose too much to graduation, but will likely have trouble replacing the scoring of Dashaun Wood (20 ppg, 5 rpg, 4 apg). With no returning double-digit scorers, expect the offense to be more spread out next year.

Either way, nobody in the Horizon will have Butler-level talent next year. Brandon Crone and Julian Betko will be important losses, but in a small conference you are in good hands with AJ Graves and Mike Green. The rich will get even richer as Butler has the strongest recruiting class in the Horizon, highlighted by 6'7" Matt Howard (Rivals: 21 SF). I don't know if they can expect another #5 seed, but a set of good out-of-conference performances could be enough to set up another at-large bid. Of course, I'm thinking Butler won't need the at-large bid next year.


Ivy League

No discussion of the Ivy League can ever begin without the Killer-P's. Of course, it's really been the Killer-P for the past two years. Princeton really struggled this year, and is going to have to suffer through yet another coaching change. It's very rare for a non-Princeton/Penn team to win the Ivy League, but it could very well happen in 2008. Not only is Princeton out of the picture, but Penn is really decimated by graduations. Ibrahim Jaaber and Mark Zoller have been the offensive go-to guys for a couple of years. And Steve Danley will be a major loss as well. Penn probably has the best recruiting class in the conference, but they will undoubtedly take a pretty big step backwards. They will have to prove that they can continue to dominate the Ivy League without Fran Dunphy's kids.

If Penn does indeed fall out of the top spot, there are a slew of teams to look out for. Brown will have a lot of good Senior talent. Cornell has a lot of young talent that they have been nurturing, but I think they need another year before they'll have enough experience to win consistently enough in the Ivy League. An intriguing team will also be a Columbia team that has been building for years. With their good set of John Baumann, "Big Ben" Nwachukwu, Mack Montgomery and Brett Loscalzo only having one year left, they have to be considered a serious contender. But it's been so long since Columbia has been able to win the 11 or 12 games needed to win the Ivies, it's just too much of a leap to pick them.

So that leaves us with a Yale team that also has been growing for years. It's not too much of a coincidence, since the Yale and Columbia coaches are brothers. This coming year, however, I think James Jones gets the best of Joseph. They return a lot of good talent and experience, highlighted by rising-Seniors Eric Flato and Caleb Holmes. It's always a risk to select a team that's name doesn't start with a P in this conference, but for now I'm going with Yale.


Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

With the struggles of Manhattan and Iona, the MAAC was really thrown on its head this past season. They really got a raw deal in having Niagara stuck in the play-in game, as this conference generally deserves better than that. Marist won the regular season crown this past season, but they are really hard hit by graduation. They lose their three highest scorers and have almost 50 points per game to replace. Niagara, too, is pretty hard hit by Senior losses.

Looking at the next crop of teams, you see a lot of good sets of freshmen and sophomores. But there is a huge lack of experience. None of these teams will be really Senior-heavy, which suggests that no team will be able to run away with the MAAC. Don't expect to see any 16-2 or 15-3 teams next year. With schools like Siena and Loyola-Maryland having some of this good talent but without enough experience to win consistently, I have to fall back on one of the two historical powers.

Iona actually had a great freshman class this past year, and they were a lot better than their record. They lost a lot of close games, mostly due to a lack of experience (think UConn, but with less talent). They should be greatly improved next year, but obviously I'm not going to predict a 1-17 team to move all the way to the top of any conference. Rather, I'm thinking Manhattan. The Jaspers were up-and-down this past season without Bobby Gonzales, but they found a lot of consistency towards the end of the season. They still retain a lot of talent and should have the experience to regain the MAAC crown.

2007-08 Preview: Small Conferences, Part II

Mid Continent Conference


Discussion of the Mid Continent Conference has to begin with Oral Roberts, a team that shocked the college basketball world by taking out Kansas in November before putting up a decent fight against a good Wazzu team in the NCAA Tourney. While they have been excellent over the past few years, they have not had to deal with losses like they will have now. Caleb Green has been the heartbeat of this team, and the Golden Eagles also lose the scoring and ballhandling abilities of Ken Tutt. Those two alone accounted for 37 points per game this past season. While they will continue to have athletic forwards, the biggest question will probably be ballhandling. Adam Liberty led the team with 2.9 apg this past season, and he's going to have to take his game to the next level for Oral Roberts to win yet another Mid-Con title. Oral Roberts will certainly continue to contend for the conference title, but I think it's safe to assume they'll take a step backwards.

Another team that can't be ignored is an Oakland team that has also challenged for the title for several straight years. They don't lose all too much to graduation, but they don't exactly have overwhelming talent returning either. The Golden Grizz should be excited about a strong sophomore class this past year, highlighted by Erik Kangas and Derick Nelson. But I give it another year before I can see Oakland actually winning this entire conference. IUPUI will return an excellent backcourt that will allow them to contend again. And Valparaiso is probably returning the most talent if not for the fact that they won't be in the Mid-Con again. They're moving on up to the Horizon League.

Which leaves me with an intriguing selection. The Mid-Con will be wide open, but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Southern Utah to make the leap. They could start as many as four Seniors, and will have a lot of good size at the guard and swing positions. A key will be if they have enough size to compete. I'm looking especially at 7'2" Brad Kanis, who could provide some much needed size for a team that already is good enough at the smaller positions. Either way, I think Southern Utah jumps up the standings with Valpo gone and Oral Roberts decimated by graduations and steals the Mid-Con.


Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference


Delaware State was the top team in the MEAC this past season, but most likely won't repeat their regular season crown next year. They will lose six key Seniors to graduation. 2007-08 will most likely be a rebuilding year for the Hornets. The MEAC's play-in game representative, of course, was Florida A&M. But they, too, lose a lot - including three of their four top scorers. It's certainly not a good sign for a conference wanting to get out of the play-in game that so many top players are graduating, but there will actually be a lot of talent remaining in the second-tier teams.

North Carolina A&T returns seven Juniors who played 15 or more minutes per game this past season, which means they'll be very Senior-heavy. This should mean that they'll be better next year. As will a Hampton team that should have an excellent Sophomore class next year. The 6'8" freshman duo of Mike Freeman and Matthew Pilgrim should become a real force in the MEAC. But I just don't see enough overall experience and leadership for this team to win the 2008 title. I do see them as an early favorite for the 2009 title, however.

That leaves us with a Coppin State team that returns a good mix of talent and experience. They only lose one key Senior from this past year's team, and will start a slew of Seniors next year. The best of all is most likely Tywain McKee (17 ppg, 3 apg). All of these returning parts should be enough to put the Eagles back on top of the MEAC.


Northeast Conference

I'm going to start the discussion of the Northeast Conference backwards. Rather than starting at the top, we'll go up from the bottom up because I think very few of these teams have enough talent to win a conference. You can usually throw out teams with an RPI hovering near 300. And Quinnipiac, Robert Morris and Mount St. Mary's are all intriguing except for the fact that they are all hard hit by graduations. Which brings us back to the top of the NEC.

Central Connecticut State ran away with the conference this past year, but they too are losing a slew of starters. They have more than 40 points per game to find, and only have a shot if Tristan Blackwood (17 ppg, 4 apg, 92% free throw shooting) can take his game to the next level. By process of elimination that leaves us with Sacred Heart, a team that should be improved next year. They lose two of their starting guards, but have a slew of others ready to take the lead. Meanwhile, rising-Seniors like Brice Brooks (10 ppg, 6 rpg) will have the opportunity to take the Pioneers back to the Tournament. The NEC should be fairly wide open, but at this point I'm going with Sacred Heart.


Ohio Valley Conference


The OVC actually had a fairly strong season in 2006-07. Though I wouldn't expect anyone to actually compete for an at-large spot, I do think this conference can actually be better next year as many of the top teams return most of their talent. Murray State returns a good guard combo of Bruce Carter and Tyler Holloway, and also likely has the strongest recruiting class in the conference. Samford and Tennessee Tech also return a good amount of talent. Eastern Kentucky, too, returns a lot of talent. But much of it is quite young. They had a good freshman crop this past year, and I expect them to challenge for the title again next year.

Austin Peay not only ran away with the OVC this past year, but they did it without any Seniors at all. Not only that, but a majority of players receiving significant playing time (10 minutes per game or more) were Freshmen or Sophomores. Not only am I picking Austin Peay to repeat again in 2008, but they are almost guaranteed to be a top contender in 2009 as well.

2007-08 Preview: Small Conferences, Part I

The first installment of the 2007-08 Previews is here! They will start will the "Small" conferences, which are defined as conferences that are very likely one-bid leagues. The next category, "Mid-Major" conferences, are defined as non-BCS conferences that have received more than one bid in recent years and can be expected to challenge for at-large bids in the coming season. The final category, of course, will be BCS schools.

Each conference preview will be accompanied by a quick breakdown of the conference from the past year. Conference records are regular season only. Overall records and the RPI are D-I only and do not include NCAA/NIT tournament games (though they do include in-season tournaments and the conference tournaments). Close followers of college basketball have probably noticed that different websites have different RPI calculations and even occasionally different D-I records. So, for consistency, I'm using the final official numbers out of the NCAA. Finally, the "Returning starters" statistic is more or less subjective on my part. Teams generally change lineups due to injuries, or poor/good play. Also, some players start but end up not getting a lot of minutes per game. So, "Returning starters" will generally mean the five players with the most minutes per game, although players are excluded if they haven't played a lot of total games. The number isn't meant to be exact, because it's impossible to predict how coaches want to tweak starting lineups and playing time next season, but it's just a ballpark figure to start with.

Two other things to note: It's impossible this early in the season to know exactly which underclassmen will go pro. I'll make my best guesses, and make it clear what those guesses are. If I don't mention a player's name that implicitly means that I'm assuming that they're staying for another year. Finally, I'll define top recruits by their rankings on both Scout.com and Rivals.com. The shorthand notation I'll use should be obvious. For example, a comment saying "John Doe (Scout: 14 PG, Rivals: 56)" means that Scout.com has John Doe ranked as the 14th best point guard in the nation, and Rivals.com has Doe ranked as the 56th overall player in the nation.

As always, the information here is for people to discuss, and not for me to lecture upon. If I make glaring errors, tell me. If you have different interpretations of the data, post it. And with that said, let's get it started with the first batch of Small Conferences:

Patriot League


For years now, Bucknell has seemed like a perennial favorite to win the Patriot League. Constantly bringing in the most talented players in the conference - players capable not just of of winning regular season games, but also of making noise in the Tournament. But this program might be in rebuilding mode, with the last of the major pieces from the Round of 32 runs in '06 and '05 finally leaving. They will sorely miss the experience and leadership of Chris McNaughton (12 ppg, 6 rpg) and Abe Badmus (8 ppg, 3 rpg). Not to mention the athleticism of Donald Brown (12 ppg, 7 rpg). Even more disturbing is that Bucknell hasn't seemed to cash in on their recent success with some elite recruits. Their recruiting class for 2007 isn't any better than any of the other top teams in the conference. Which means that if the Bison are going to return to the Tournament in 2008, they're going to have to rely on what they already have in the stable - the guys who were at the end of the bench in '05 and '06, and now need to lead. Guys like John Griffin (11 ppg, 3 apg, 37% 3-point shooting) and Darren Mastropaolo (6 ppg, 4 rpg, 54% shooting).

If Bucknell slides a spot or two next year, the most popular pick to win the Patriot League will most likely be Holy Cross. The Crusaders were, after all, the Patriot League's representative in this year's Tournament. They, too, are hard hit by graduation. Their two leading scorers (Keith Simmons and Torey Thomas - a combined 31 ppg) will both be gone. They return enough size to compete, with three regular players 6'8" or taller returning. Their biggest loss will probably be Thomas and his ballhandling abilities. They're probably going to need rising-Junior Pat Doherty (5 ppg, 2 apg) to run the offense next year. Either way, Holy Cross had a good set of sophomores and freshmen this past year. So even if they can't win the conference this year, they will remain a favorite for the 2008-09 season.

But I don't think they're going to have to wait that long. With no other team returning nearly enough to contend with the Bucknell-Holy Cross duopoly, Holy Cross is my preseason pick to win the Patriot League.


Southern Conference


I asserted for most of this past year that Appalachian State was the best team in the Southern Conference, although they didn't back me up in the Southern Conference Tourney. In all fairness, the difference between the Mountaineers and the Wildcats representing the conference in the Tourney came down to Dontaye Draper. The Senior went nuts in the Tourney Semifinals, going for 38 points in a two point victory for Charleston. In the Finals he went cold, shooting only 2-for-11 from the field for 8 points in a seven point Davidson victory. Either way, I still think Appalachian State was the better team last year. But things could be very different next year, as the Mountaineers lose quite a bit of talent. Most notably, they lose 5'8" star DJ Thompson. The Senior scored in double-digits for the third straight year in 2006-07, and also threw in a career-high 4.9 assists per game. If Appalachian State is going to make another run at the Tournament it's going to be on the back of the athleticism and size of Donte Minter and Jeremy Clayton (a combined 22 ppg and 12 rpg). While Minter and Clayton will undoubtedly be a powerful duo, the real question will be guardplay. In addition to Thompson, Appalachian State also loses their next two best guards, meaning that a lot of responsibility will fall on the young rising-sophomore group led by Ryann Abraham and Kellen Brand.

Another team that could challenge at the top next year will be UNC-Greensboro. Despite not competing near the top of the conference this past season, they do return almost all of their top talent. The biggest issue for them might actually be a lack of experience/maturity. They had three different freshmen getting over 17 minutes per game this past season, so a lot of the minutes next year will be in the hands of freshmen and sophomores. They probably don't have enough to win the Southern Conference in 2008, but I will look at them as a serious contender in 2009.

Finally, Davidson fans were unhappy with me during the season for proclaiming them the second best team in the conference despite the fact that they had the best record. I always countered that while they didn't have as much experience as Appalachian State in 2007, they return far more and will likely be the favorite to win next season. Indeed, they didn't have a single Senior get more than garbage minutes this past season. Things are really looking up for the program and super-frosh Stephen Curry. He scored 21.5 ppg with an outstanding shooting touch (46% from the field, 41% from behind the arc and 86% from the line), and might just be scratching the surface. This team is going to be so good next year that they will have a great shot at an at-large bid even if they get upset in the Conference Tourney. I can't find a copy of their schedule for next season, but hopefully they're smart enough to schedule a good out-of-conference schedule. They will need a couple wins as an RPI-booster and as insurance in case they really do need that at-large bid.

But hopefully they don't need it. Unless something goes really wrong, Davidson will be a really dangerous small-conference school - the Winthrop of 2007-08.


Southland Conference


Texas A&M Corpus Cristi came out of nowhere to run away with the Southland Conference in 2007, but it's really hard to see them coming up with anything like that next season. They lose seven of their eight top scorers, with Scooby Johnson the only real good player they have coming back. With them most likely out of the picture, the most obvious successor is Sam Houston State, although they lose a lot also. The one thing the Bearkats will have going for them will be experience, as they'll have four Seniors playing a prominent role next year, highlighted by leading-scorer Ryan Bright (15 ppg, 8 rpg).

Moving further down the standings, an intriguing team is Stephen F. Austin and their solid rising-Junior duo of Josh Alexander and Matt Kingsley (combined 26 ppg, 10 rpg). They should be improved next year, but I think they're one year away from competing for a conference title. Another interesting team is Texas-Arlington, a school stocked with a lot of young talent. Like SFA, however, I don't think they have the talent and experience in place to be a real competitor this coming season. Northwestern State and McNeese State will also be threats in the wide-open Southland Conference next year, but I'm going with a Lamar team that returns five rising-Seniors that all averaged over 22 minutes and 7 points per game this past season. No one is going to be real good in this conference next year, and they can certainly expect another 15/16 seed in the Tourney, but for the schools in the Southland Conference that's all they're really playing for anyway.


Southwestern Athletic Conference


Speaking of conferences lacking in talent, the SWAC had a really awful year this past season. Jackson State should have been in the play-in game, except that the Selection Committee felt uncomfortable putting two historically black colleges in that game. Jackson State had the honor of being a warm-up for Kansas, although they will suffer without Trey Johnson's 27 points per game. They return some decent pieces, and will certainly contend for another title, but they will almost surely take a step back without their star scorer. Another contender will likely be a Southern University team that has locked up a solid amount of talent for a SWAC team. They have had two straight good classes of recruits, so it's easy to expect this team to compete for atleast the next three years. But I just think it's too much to ask for a team hovering around the 300-RPI level to take any conference in a single year.

So with that in mind it seems like the most talent resides with Mississippi Valley State. With an inside-outside game of Stanford Speech (12 ppg, 2 apg, 2 spg) and 6'10" Larry Cox (7 ppg, 2 bpg, 51% shooting) they should have a good enough team to win the SWAC regular season title again. Hopefully they can finish it with a real Tourney appearance next year, too.


Sun Belt Conference


The Sun Belt has been a duel between South Alabama and Western Arkansas [May 6th edit: Obviously I meant Western Kentucky here] over the past few years, and it's to be expected that both of those teams will continue to compete next year. Both Louisiana-Monroe and Arkansas State contended this past year, and both return a lot of talent. The Warhawks return a lot of good players, but will need one or two of them to take the next step if they're really going to compete. Meanwhile, Arkansas State will probably have the third-most talent with the high-scoring trio of Adrian Banks, Isaac Wells and Ryan Wedel (48 ppg).

But in reality, the rich are just getting richer next year. Both Western Kentucky and South Alabama expect to return atleast four starters, and both expect to start atleast three Seniors next year. Both teams return enough talent to win the Sun Belt, and that's before we get to their recruiting classes. Both of these schools have done a good job of picking up the next-best kids in their respective states - the kids just not good enough to play for Louisville, Kentucky or Alabama, but still solid talents. South Alabama brings in an outstanding backcourt duo of DeAndre Ross and Jamar Moore. Western Kentucky, on the other hand, brings in more good big guys in BJ Frazier and 6'10" DJ Magley. The Hilltoppers should return enough good guard play to run with South Alabama's good young guards. If Frazier and Magley can become dominant forces inside, it's hard to see Western Kentucky not being a really good team next year.

It's Coming... Seriously

I know, no new posts in a while. I don't blame some readers for getting a little antsy for something new to read and debate. But the new conference previews will begin within a day or two. I will have all conference previews, and the new BP65 out within two weeks of today. Stay tuned.

First Round Thoughts

I know that I haven't had too much commentary of the Tournament so far, but I've been spending my time preparing the 2007-08 previews. As with last year, expect all conference previews and the new BP65 to be out within a week of the National Championship game. Also, with so much coverage, there's really nothing intelligent to be said about these games that isn't repeated ad nauseam. So just a few overarching issues:

Where are the upsets?
Only two double-digit teams made the second round. I don't even want to hear the "five upsets" number by counting the #9 seeds. Historically, #9 seeds have won 54% of their games. It's an "upset" if they lose. Never in the history of the 64/65 team bracket have there been only two double-digit teams in the second round. In fact, in order to find only two teams in the second round you have to go all the way back to 1980, when the concept of a 13, 14, 15 and 16 seed didn't even exist. Back then those double digit seeds all went to the worst conference champions. Only one double digit team (Arkansas, from the SWC) came from what you can define as a Major Conference.

Does this portend more upsets in the second round?
It's very possible that a lack of first round upsets will put some elite teams at ease. Also, the fact that so many 4, 5, 6, 7 seeds got through means that the top teams will have tougher opponents from here on out. Plus, even though we've found that teams like USC and Maryland were able to show enough maturity to play to their best in the first round, some of the elite teams haven't. Kansas and Ohio State both missed the Sweet 16 last year, and neither has been tested yet. And Memphis is a great upset pick - I'd have picked Nevada or Creighton to beat them straight up in the second round.

If we want to see an example of this occuring in history, I point you to the 2000 Tournament. That year was the closest to this year in terms of an upset-free first round. Only three double-digit seeds made the second round, two 10s and an 11. But in the second round, all hell broke loose. Two #1 seeds and three #2 seeds and two #3 seeds all went down. That's right, more than half (7 of 12) of the top twelve teams went down in the second round. That year's Final Four included a 5 and two 8 seeds. Without a doubt, a real "bracket busting" second round. For the sake of fun, let's hope that history repeats.

Final Bracket Thoughts

I've been trying to avoid just going game through game to make my picks. First of all, I'm not exactly a seer, and so much can come down to final shots and fluke plays that it's impossible to make even a near-perfect prediction. All you can do is play the odds. But if I'm going to offer a little bit of advice, it's this: Don't let seed affect you too much, and don't discount how much seeding affects the players.

In regards to the first point, it means that you can't judge a team on its seed. The seedings are a huge help for casual fans, who need to know things like "Oh, Duke is only a 6 seed this year, I guess I shouldn't pick them to win the title this year." But for the more experienced analyst, like many of this site's readers, the seeding can often constrict you. You are loathe to pick an 10, 11 or 12 seed to go to the Sweet 16. You are more likely to pick the 4 to beat the 5, even though there really is no difference between a 4 and a 5. People are even substantially more likely to pick 1 seeds over 2 seeds, even though we all know that there is really no difference between UNC/Florida and Georgetown/Wisconsin.

In regards to my second point, we have to realize that a little bit of psychology can make a huge difference in close games. The reason there are so many upsets in the Tournament is because high-seeded teams simply come into games with a different mentality than lower-seeded teams. Take the classic 5/12 game. The 5 seed is looking ahead to Round 2 and thinking they have a great chance at dueling with the #1 seed in the Sweet 16. But the 12 seed is a team of comparable quality, yet who has no illusions of future games. They are likely a questionable at-large team, dealing with "Why are you here instead of Syracuse" questions all week, and desperate to prove themselves. They are going to put everything on the floor from the opening minute, and they are likely to pull off the upset.

I think it's that psychology which explains why 12 seeds win more first round games than 11 seeds. The #6 seed is much less likely to assume a first round victory than a #5 seed. We all know that 8/9 and 7/10 games are basically tossups, so 6/11 games are treated somewhat similarly. #5 seeds, on the other hand, have much higher expectations, and are thus much more likely to fall on their face.

A few games in the Tournament that represent these ideas in my head:

#5 USC vs. #12 Arkansas - To me, this game represents two teams that are pretty even in ability. USC has more pure talent, but Arkansas is one of those real "total is greater than the sum of its parts" teams. If you put these teams on a neutral court to play a random game on a random day, USC probably wins more than they lose - but not by too much. Maybe they win 55% of the time. But now we throw in the 5/12 psychology. Major conference teams seeded as #12s are extremely dangerous teams. Arkansas has a chip on their shoulder and they are going to come out firing. So it seems to me that Arkansas is a great pick to make here. However, let's switch up the seeds and make Arkansas a 5 and USC a 12, I immediately pick USC to win. In my mind, the talent is so similar that you have to go with the team that is going to be more fired up to play.

As a side note, Illinois/Virginia Tech represents a similar game to me. I picked both Arkansas and Illinois to pull of the upset in my main bracket.

#10 Creighton vs. #2 Memphis - Now this is a second round game, but certainly a very likely one. Creighton got killed on their seeding because they struggled so much early in the year and the Selection Committee really emphasized "entire body of work" and out-of-conference performance this year, but there's no question that right now they're playing like one of the Top 20 teams in the country. Meanwhile, Memphis has cruised through a joke of a schedule, and honestly hasn't proved themselves to anyone. Memphis is 1-2 against the RPI Top 50, Creighton is 7-3. Tell me again, which team is better?

Now, throw in the fact that Creighton will be the desperate #10 seed while Memphis will be thinking "Gee, I hope Texas A&M goes down so we don't have to play them in the next round." And not only does Creighton have the lower-seed psychology advantage, but they have a little bit of the Major-Conference lower-seed psychology advantage. Major conference teams have better records as #10, #11 and #12 seeds than do smaller conference teams. And let's be honest, the Missouri Valley is pretty much a Major conference at this point. Conference USA, on the other hand, was a joke this year. Creighton is the team that has been through the fire this year, not Memphis. Throw in the fact that they're pretty similar in overall talent, and I couldn't resist picking Creighton to win this game in every bracket I filled out.



As always, I could be completely wrong. All I can do is tell you the odds. I can't look into the future and see who is going to catch fire and make five straight threes, or who is going to get the lucky bounce in the last five seconds. But I hope this advice helps.

Talking 6/11 Game

I've already linked to the numbers for 5/12 games from 1996 through 2005. For the 6/11 games I'm going to dip back 15 years, from 1992 through 2006. For my analysis, I have defined a "Major" conference as the 6 BCS conferences, the Big 8, the SWC (when it existed) and Conference USA from 1996 through 2005. "Mid-Major" is defined as the A-10, Colonial, Conference USA (since 2006), Great Midwest (when it existed), Metro (when it existed), MAC, MVC, MWC, WAC and WCC. "Small" conferences are all the rest.

The 6/11 game is often seen as an unimportant game. Upsets aren't seen as monumental, and winners are never considered to be major threats. We assume they'll get eaten up by the #3 and #2 seeds. The stats don't entirely bear that out:

Upsets are common, but not too common: Fifteen upsets over the last fifteen years. So, only one per year. This is actually less often than the 5/12 game. On four occasions every single #6 seed went through. Seven times saw one upset, and only four years saw #11 seeds getting a split.


Don't count on #11 seeds to carry on to the next round: Only four times have they moved onto the Sweet 16. Twice have they moved on the Elite 8 (Temple in '01 and George Mason in '06), and once to the Final Four (George Mason in '06).

Bet on #6 seeds for the Sweet 16: A remarkable 26 of the 45 winners of their first game went on to the Sweet 16. Seven of those have moved onto the Elite 8, but only one to the Final Four and Championship Game (Michigan in '92).

Mid-Major #6 seeds are losing their mojo: After going 4-0 in first round games from 1992 through 1995, they are only 2-3 since.

Can't go wrong with Major Conference #6 seeds: They are 39-12 in first round games and 20-19 in second round games.

If you need a #11 upset, no need to go with the Major Conference team: They are 4-10 as #11 seeds in the first round, 1-3 in the 2nd round. Mid-Majors are 7-23 in the first round, and a very solid 3-4 in the second round. Small Conference teams are 4-12 in the first round, and 0-4 in the second round.


So what conclusions can we reach? Well it's interesting that we don't see very many upsets. So don't go crazy picking #11 seeds all over the place. You're more likely to see success picking on #12 seeds, which is interesting from a psychological viewpoint. If you want to pick an upset or two, I can't tell you which teams to pick. Although if you want a Sweet 16 run for a #11 seed, go with a Mid-Major. This is bad news for Winthrop, a sexy Sweet 16 pick, as they would have to tread new ground. No Small Conference team I studied made it that far.

What about the #6 seeds? Looking at the overall resumes, there is no difference between Majors and Mid-Majors. But it seems clear that in recent years momentum has switched away from Mid-Majors. Schools from conferences like the WCC (Gonzaga in '02) and the Missouri Valley (Creighton in '03) are no longer a mystery. And they also have lost a little of the chip on their shoulder. Getting too much respect and love from tv analysts will soften a team. It's much harder to win when you're expected to win, and when you're looking ahead to the next game instead of putting everything on the floor from the opening minute. So, bet against Mid-Majors as #6 seeds.

As for the Major schools that are #6 seeds, go wild. The fact that 20 of the 51 have made the Sweet 16 is remarkable. In fact, the last time a Major Conference team didn't make the Sweet 16 as a #6 seed was 1994, and even in that year a future-Major made the run (Marquette, then in the Great Midwest Conference). So, definitely do not pick #3 seeds all the way through. Atleast one of them will go down before the Sweet 16. You can bank on it.



So, what am I recommending? This year we find that all four #6 seeds are from Major Conferences. The #11 seeds are a mix: 1 Major, 2 Mids, and 1 Small. In other words, all of what I just said isn't pointing to a likely upset. Personally, I can see upsets in any of the games. Winthrop is an outstanding team, and they are built for the Tournament, but they've gotten so much hype that it could backfire. They could fall on their face like Gonzaga did so many times at the beginning of the current decade. VCU and George Washington have both played great as of late, so either of them could pull off an upset. And as my stats have shown, both will be very viable Sweet 16 teams. Stanford is clearly the worst of the four #11 seeds. But it's possible that they could use all the "Stanford doesn't deserve to get in" stories as bulletin board fodder. But I wouldn't bet on it. They haven't impressed me all year, so I'm not picking an upset there.

What about the next round? Absolutely you need to pick atleast one team into the Sweet 16. I wouldn't go with Louisville, a team that lives and dies by the three. Texas A&M can play at a frenetic pace, which Louisville can only keep up with if their guards shoot the lights out. More likely I see them wearing out, missing back rim, and ending up with a double-digit loss. I wouldn't pick Notre Dame either. With such a great probability of them going down in the first round, I wouldn't risk them as a Sweet 16 team. And I don't like them in a matchup against the athletic guards of Oregon.

That leads us with Vanderbilt and Duke. To me, you've got to go with Duke. First of all, they're just a better team than Vanderbilt. Second of all, it's been a full decade since they missed the Sweet 16. Pitt is a good team, but Duke matches up well. They will be able to handle Aaron Gray down low, and they have the athleticism and perimeter defense to prevent Pitt from getting too many open threes off picks and kick-outs. Duke won't score 80+ points, but they won't need that many to take out Pitt. So, you need to pick an upset in the second round, and I'm going with Duke.



As always, if I really could predict the future I'd win a higher percentage of my bracket contests. But I hope these stats can help you fill out your brackets at least a little bit.

Bracket Analysis

Just a reminder that throughout the next week I'll go through a bunch of analysis to help you fill out your bracket. For now you can chew on my 5 vs 12 analysis from last year. That analysis suggests to bet against smaller-conference teams that are #5 seeds, and to bet on major conference teams that are 12's. That led me to suggest betting on Texas A&M and Montana to pull upsets last year, both of which happened. This year that advice might not be entirely helpful, since three games fit the grade. Arkansas over USC, Old Dominion over Butler, and Illinois over Virginia Tech. Although, to be honest, all three look very ripe for upsets. Take the numbers as you'd like. I'll try to provide more help as the week goes on.

Initial Thoughts

We can talk more about the brackets as the day goes on, but just some momentary reactions:

63 out of 65 ain't bad, I'll take it. I can easily see Purdue over Air Force, as that was a really close one. But Stanford over Syracuse is inexplicable. No way did Stanford deserve a bid, and they actually got an 11? They could have expanded the bracket to 75 teams and they wouldn't deserve a bid in my mind. And Syracuse pretty much got hosed. But someone had to make room for Stanford, I suppose.

Overall, the most overrated teams in my mind:
5. Butler
6. Vanderbilt
11. Stanford
12. Long Beach State

And the most underrated teams:
8. Marquette
8. BYU
10. Creighton
(not in bracket) Syracuse


What does everyone else think? Any other inexplicable selections?

Final BP65

A couple hours early, but let's do this thing. I have to make assumptions on the last two games, and I'm going to assume wins for Ohio State and Kansas:

1. OHIO STATE (BIG 10)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. UCLA
2. Wisconsin
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Pittsburgh

3. Texas A&M
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. OREGON (PAC 10)
3. Texas

4. Southern Illinois
4. UNLV (MWC)
4. Washington State
4. Virginia Tech

5. Maryland
5. CREIGHTON (MVC)
5. Marquette
5. Nevada

6. Virginia
6. Tennessee
6. Louisville
6. Boston College

7. BYU
7. Notre Dame
7. USC
7. Duke

8. Kentucky
8. Butler
8. Michigan State
8. Arizona

9. Villanova
9. VCU (COLONIAL)
9. Indiana
9. Vanderbilt

10. Xavier
10. Old Dominion
10. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
10. Syracuse

11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Illinois
11. Arkansas
11. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. GEORGE WASHINGTON (ATLANTIC 10)
12. Air Force
12. Texas Tech

13. Georgia Tech
13. WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON)
13. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

14. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
14. MIAMI-OHIO (MAC)

15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. NIAGARA (MAAC)
15. NORTH TEXAS (SUN BELT)

16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. FLORIDA A&M (MEAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

If I missed somebody on the bubble, here are the most likely teams:
Florida State
West Virginia
Purdue
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Drexel
Missouri State
Stanford

Other more distant possibilities, that could possibly get a bid - but probably shouldn't:
UMass
Michigan
Akron
Bradley
Alabama
Georgia
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Utah State

Talking #1 & #2 Seeds

There's so much to discuss today, but it seems clear that there are two issues that are most pervasive. First, obviously, the bubble teams. Who are the last teams in or out. We'll get to those later in the day. Secondly, the top seeds. Who will get the #1 seeds. Discussing whether Notre Dame is getting a 6 or an 8 seed just doesn't have as much draw. So, we'll get to the bubble teams later today. But for this thread, let's discuss the #1 seeds:


Entering Championship Week, you could make the argument that nine different teams had a shot at a #1 seed. Georgetown and Pitt both only had a shot if they won the Big East Tourney and got a ton of help. Georgetown held up their end of the deal, but haven't gotten nearly enough help. You could make a great argument that they've been playing like one of the top four teams in the nation for the past few weeks, but overall their resume just doesn't match up with the other top schools. Losing to Old Dominion at home was only part of a disastrous out-of-conference schedule that had them dropping out of a lot of analyst's brackets altogether. The out-of-conference RPI wasn't even in the Top 60 in the country. So, they're out. Pitt, obviously, is out after losing the Big East. I'm also throwing Texas A&M out, another school that needed to win its conference and get some help. By all measurements they have an inferior resume than Kansas, a team that might not get a #1 themselves. The RPI is outside the Top 15. They should be happy if they get a #2 seed, honestly.

So, that leaves us with six teams left, that probably any casual viewer of college ball could name: UCLA, Florida, UNC, Kansas, Ohio State, Wisconsin. Entering the week, Kansas had to be considered the weakest resume of the six. Like Bill Self's entire tenure at the school, they have had the occasional hiccup. The losses to Oral Roberts and Depaul sent their RPI careening, and they are the only of the aforementioned six teams with an RPI outside the Top 10. Of course, they have been red hot of late, possibly playing better than any other team in the nation. They will be selected as the National Champion in a lot of brackets this coming week. But, their overall resume means that Kansas is only getting a #1 if they win the Big 12 and atleast two of the other five don't.

You also have UCLA, a team that probably entered the week #1 overall. They suffered the worst loss of any of the remaining potential #1 seeds, but right now they've still got to be a #1. Which brings us to Ohio State, the team that is probably the new #1 overall with UCLA down. With the run to the Big 10 Title game, obviously far more impressive than UCLA's hiccup against Cal, you have to ask if they're getting a top seed no matter what happens. In my opinion, this isn't true. Right now they have a pretty identical RPI to UCLA, and would probably drop back below them with a loss. And UCLA has an outstanding 10-1 record against the RPI Top 50, a resume stat that no other team in the country can match. Ohio State is only 9-3, and a loss today would obviously drop them to 9-4. So, a loss by Ohio State would probably drop them in the pecking order behind UCLA.

The next team worth discussing is Wisconsin, one of three teams (along with UCLA and Ohio State) to have played like a top seed all season long. They haven't had the poor stretches that have plagued Kansas, UNC and Florida at times. So, a win today would mean that they deserve a #1 seed. But you don't always get what you deserve. The Selection Committee has strongly hinted that the brackets could be finished before the Big 10 title game ends. So, could Wisconsin be the team with the biggest gripe about missing a #1 seed? I'm going to say that they won't, simply because they represent a very simple contingency. The Selection Committee, throughout this afternoon, will draw up contingency plans based on what happens in the late conference tourney games. They can draw it up such that the winner of the game gets the #1 seed in the midwest, and the loser (assuming all the favorites win earlier in the afternoon) gets one of the top two #2 seeds. If Florida or UNC go down in the first set of games, it will be an even easier contingency to put together, since both OSU & Wisconsin would probably get a #1 seed with a Badgers win.

So the simplest thing to talk about is if all the favorites win today: Kansas, UNC, Ohio State, Florida. In that case, I think those four teams will get the #1 seeds. You can make a good argument for UCLA getting in over Florida or UNC, but I don't think it will happen. You can't ignore momentum, and UCLA's loss in their final two games is a major problem. What happens if Kansas, UNC or Florida loses? UCLA will be the first to get in. A defeated Wisconsin team would not have the resume of UCLA, even with the superior performance this week. A victorious Wisconsin team would jump ahead of both Ohio State and UCLA, and would move into the #1 seed in the Midwest.

So, for now, I'm predicing Kansas, UNC, Ohio State and Florida as the #1 seeds. We'll obviously revisit this as the games go down today. Whichever potential top seeds miss out, obviously, will get a #2. Georgetown, as well, is a near lock for a second seed. That leaves one spot for Pitt, Texas A&M, Texas and Memphis. I'd say that Memphis will miss out. They've won 22 games in a row, but they've just had such a weak schedule all year. They only went 1-2 against the RPI Top 50 this year. That's not a typo. They should be happy just to get a solid #3. If Texas can win their game today, they have a great shot to grab that seed. If they don't, it's almost a tossup between Pitt and A&M. A&M has played better against elite teams, but Pitt has been far more consistent against good opponents. They have a significantly higher RPI, due to a 13-6 record against the RPI Top 100 versus the 8-6 for A&M. Combine that with the fact that Pitt made their conference tourney and A&M got upset early, I'd have to go with Pitt for the final #2 seed. Of course, if Texas wins the Big 12 it becomes another tossup between Texas and Pitt. I know that a lot of people would like to give it to Texas for their strong finish. But their overall resume is really lacking, including an RPI that is still outside the Top 25. Sagarin, too, has them at 16th (and only 2-7 against the Sagarin Top 50) after yesterday's win. They are actually only 7-8 against the RPI Top 100. That stat alone will probably doom them to a #3 seed. A loss to Kansas could even drop them to a #4.


As always, this should be a discussion rather than a lecture. Let's see what everyone else has to say.

Early Look at the Early Games

With so much going on today, it's worthwhile to take a look at the early games now. We'll get to the later games as they come:

#1 Ohio State 63, Purdue 52
#2 Kansas 67, Kansas State 61
I put these two games together because they had so many similarities. Both games had teams playing for #1 seeds. Ohio State locks up the #1 seed in the Midwest with a win tomorrow, and might get a #1 seed even with a loss (especially since the Selection Committee has strongly hinted that they might have to make their final selections before the Ohio State/Wisconsin game ends). Kansas, too, can get a #1 seed if they can win the Big 12 title game and get a little bit of help. If Florida, UNC and Wisconsin win their respective Conference Tourneys, Kansas could get locked out. They obviously don't get a top seed if they lose tomorrow, but they can feel pretty good with another win.

More importantly for these games, however, were the two losers. Both Purdue and Kansas State came in firmly on the bubble. K-State has the better conference record, although the Big 12 hasn't been quite as good as the Big 10 this year. Purdue clearly has the better RPI, but K-State has the better elite win (Purdue couldn't close the deal against OSU or Wisconsin this year). Purdue obviously has the better RPI. Which brings us to this game. Despite the scores, the Purdue/OSU game was actually closer. Carl Landry played out of this world and single-handedly kept this game even the whole way until the final five minutes. Kansas, on the hand, led for most of the game. Kansas State made a small run at the end, but the game wasn't in too much doubt near the end.

So, when you add in the fact that Ohio State has probably been just a little better than Kansas this year, you have to consider Purdue's final pre-Selection Show performance superior to that of the Wildcats. And that could be the difference if there is only room tomorrow for one of these teams. Of course, at-large spots are being swallowed up everywhere. What happens if Oklahoma State takes out Texas? What happens if NC State wins the ACC Tourney? Both Kansas State and Purdue still have a decent shot of getting in, but they both need a lot of stuff to break right over the next 24 hours.

Arkansas 81, Mississippi State 72
A huge game for both of these teams. Potentially an elimination game for both, the Razorbacks came up with another big win to add to an already solid resume. I'm not calling this game a clincher by any means, but if the season ended this moment they'd have to be in. The RPI is safely in the Top 40 and they're 10-9 against the RPI Top 100. Sagarin will also likely move them into the Top 40 when the new rankings come out tomorrow morning. Mississippi State came in with a nearly-as-good resume, but obviously that's not the case anymore. They're probably done. As for Arkansas, I'd say they need to atleast stay close tomorrow. Play Florida tight. Hope that teams like NC State don't pull off any more big upsets. And I think that should be enough. But we'll see what happens as more games get played later today.

Championship Week Overreactions

What a difference a day makes. On Thursday it seemed like bubble teams everywhere were going down early in their Conference Tournaments. Favorites were winning mid-major Tournaments. At the end of the day I found myself scrambling to fill out my bracket. I couldn't find enough deserving teams. On Friday, everything flipped over. There were good wins for bubble teams everywhere. Off the top of my head: Purdue, Illinois, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Mississippi State all had good wins, and all but one (Illinois) started the day outside the BP65. On top of that, two bids disappeared as Xavier and Nevada fell in their own Conference Tournaments. Both should still draw at-large bids, meaning two less spots for all of the aforementioned teams.

And on top of all of that, fans get distorted ideas of their team's chances because the tv announcers during the games overhype each team's chances. I think part of it is just that most of these television analysts aren't filling out their own brackets, and don't realize how few bids are available. They put teams "in the Tournament" that "feel" like they should be in based on their resume. But it's impossible to judge a team's resume without comparing it against the 20 other teams competing for the final few spots. And since you can generally make good arguments for a lot more than 65 teams (because of days like Friday), television analysts tend to put way too many teams into the Tournament. Watching College Gameday this morning was interesting because I was adding the numbers up in my head as Jay Bilas and the others were saying who was in and out. They're going to need a bracket of about 72 teams to put in all of the teams they want to put in. The most egregious was Digger's pick of Stanford getting in, but that's just me. The correct conversation that you need to have, that they didn't have, was "Now that Nevada and Xavier went down, which two teams 'deserve' to get in but are now going to get booted?"

So, we start off with the fact that people who aren't filling out their own brackets think too many teams are getting in, and you have to add in the fact that tv announcers are trying to keep viewers. If an announcer honestly says something like "It doesn't matter if ____ wins this game, they're still not making the Tournament" it's going to turn people off. So announcers are constantly making outrageous proclamations of what teams should be in with a win, or even with a loss, in the games they're doing. I don't remember which announcing teams did which games, but one example was during the West Virginia/Louisville game that West Virginia had a decent shot of getting in even with a loss. And that a win would surely put them in. Nope on both counts.

The worst offenders, in my view, were the Pac-10 announcers on Fox Sports. Because Fox Sports has become the de facto Pac-10 Network, they have made it their business to overhype the conference. So during the Stanford/USC game we heard that Stanford is probably getting in the Tournament even with a loss, when in reality even a win would very likely not be enough. Then we heard during the Cal/UCLA game that a win for Cal would put them right back on the bubble. In fact, Cal needed to win that game and another to even have a real shot at the NIT. They had zero chance at the Tournament unless they won the Pac-10 Tourney. I didn't watch much of Wazzu/Washington, just because I didn't need to hear how Washington was just one way from locking up their own ticket.


So when you're watching the final games today and tomorrow, keep this all in mind. Take anything that an announcer says about a team in the game with a big grain of salt. Before you think that a win over Texas Tech or Iowa is suddenly going to be the win that is going to blow away the Selection Committee, check out what other teams are doing in other conferences. Make your own brackets. You're going to realize that a lot of teams that feel like they should be in are going to get left out. There just aren't enough spots.

D-1 BP65

This will mostly just be a reaction to the games over the last day or two. I'll do a more in-depth study of the bubble teams Saturday afternoon, and we can take a look at how the bubble has shifted. For now:

1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. FLORIDA (SEC)
2. Wisconsin
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas A&M

3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Pittsburgh
3. Texas
3. Southern Illinois

4. Virginia Tech
4. Oregon
4. Washington State
4. Maryland

5. Marquette
5. Nevada
5. BYU (MWC)
5. Tennessee

6. CREIGHTON (MVC)
6. UNLV
6. Virginia
6. Boston College

7. USC
7. Louisville
7. Duke
7. Notre Dame

8. Kentucky
8. Butler
8. Michigan State
8. Arizona

9. Villanova
9. VCU (COLONIAL)
9. Illinois
9. Indiana

10. Air Force
10. Syracuse
10. Xavier
10. Vanderbilt

11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Old Dominion
11. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
11. UTAH STATE (WAC)

12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. GEORGE WASHINGTON (ATLANTIC 10)
12. Texas Tech
12. Arkansas

13. Florida State
13. WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)

14. AKRON (MAC)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)


15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. NIAGARA (MAAC)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. NORTH TEXAS (SUN BELT)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Georgia Tech
Kansas State
Drexel
Missouri State
Stanford

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
West Virginia
Purdue
Oklahoma State
Bradley
Mississippi
Mississippi State

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Alabama
Georgia

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Massachusetts
Michigan

It Begins

After several relatively slow days in smaller conferences, the BCS Conference Tourneys showed up in a torrent today. A slew of quasi-elimination games for teams like Stanford and West Virginia. Without further ado, let's go into the most important:

Florida State 67, Clemson 66
The closest to a true elimination game, with both teams facing likely NIT trips without a win here. Coming in, FSU had the better resume, simply because they've finished stronger. Looking at their overall records, conference standings, RPI and records vs. top teams, both teams look relatively similar. But Clemson has been in a free-fall, while FSU has played relatively solid ball lately. Surprisingly, Clemson gave it a real good effort, losing only on a very questionable foul call. But in all honesty, Tigers fans can complain about nothing. They've had a slew of opportunities to wrap up an at-large bid, and they've dropped the ball entirely. You can't be relying on a close call in the final seconds of an ACC Tourney game. Not to mention that a win might not have been enough for a bid anyway. The loss, of course, sends them straight to the NIT. FSU is looking pretty good for a bid, but without an upset victory over UNC they'll have to sweat it out until Selection Sunday. And that's even if they continue getting help, like they did today. Speaking of help for bubble teams:

Kentucky 79, Alabama 67
Another devastating loss for an Alabama team that is so much better than their record. But their record is their record, and they've probably played themselves out of the Tournament. All year as they struggled with their SEC record, their resume was buoyed by a strong strength of schedule and RPI. But the RPI has almost dropped out of the Top 50, to the point that it now hurts rather than helps their resume. And without the computer numbers, all Alabama has is a 7-9 record in the easy half of the SEC, and a lot of "what if Ronald Steele was healthy" talk for the next 8 months.

#16 Notre Dame 89, Syracuse 83
Another good win for a surprisingly good Notre Dame team. You watch them play, and you don't see the great star, you don't see a lot of great talent. But they just win, and they're going to have a nice single-digit seed regardless of the rest of the Big East Tourney. But this is all a topic for discussion during the new BP65 after Friday night's games. The more important issue in this game is Syracuse's Tournament status. They didn't make it as easy on the Selection Committee as they did last year, and are definitely going to have to sweat it out. The RPI is a very mediocre 50, and the 3-6 record versus the RPI Top 50 is more of the same. I know that a lot of analysts consider the Orange a lock or near-lock. But from where I'm sitting, Syracuse needs to keep rooting for the favorites the rest of this weekend, or they might find themselves very disappointed on Sunday evening.

#15 Louisville 82, West Virginia 71, 2OT
A great game that just went back and forth until Louisville finally pulled away in the second overtime. Just a little bit more in the way of elite and experienced talent. They didn't shoot well from behind the arc today (6 of 25), but when those shots fall they can really beat anyone. As for West Virginia, they've surprised a lot of people this year. No matter what happens, they have a season to be proud of. But I'm just not seeing the Tournament resume. RPI of 59. No RPI Top 100 wins out of conference. Only 2-7 against the RPI Top 50 overall. Only three road wins all year. They'll certainly be in the discussion on Selection Sunday, but right now I can't see myself putting them in.

USC 83, Stanford 79, OT
Speaking of great finishes, how about that block by Taj Gibson at the end of regulation? Both of these teams are oozing with talent and potential, and it remains to be seen how many of these guys will stick around for another year. This is especially true for a USC program that may have the top recruiting class in the nation this year. For now, USC will be enjoying a trip to the NCAAs with an outside shot at a Sweet 16 run. Stanford, on the other hand, will probably be waiting for the NIT. They have the big wins, but don't have a consistent enough resume to overcome the loss here. The RPI has dipped to 62, with a Sagarin rating outside the Top 50. The only chance Stanford has is for the Selection Committee to realize that there isn't much else to look for. With teams like Syracuse and West Virginia and Georgia Tech falling early in Conference Tourney play, there are so many teams playing their way out of the Tournament that there have to be some teams sitting at home that will work their way back in just by sitting idle. Today's mess is good for Stanford's hopes, as well as for teams like Georgia and Drexel. We'll see what happens over the final three days of games before Selections are made.

D-3 BP65

1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. FLORIDA (SEC)
2. Wisconsin
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas A&M

3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Pittsburgh
3. Texas
3. Washington State

4. Southern Illinois
4. NEVADA (WAC)
4. Maryland
4. Tennessee

5. Marquette
5. Virginia Tech
5. Duke
5. Kentucky

6. Oregon
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Villanova
6. Virginia

7. UNLV
7. Louisville
7. Arizona
7. CREIGHTON (MVC)

8. USC
8. Air Force
8. Boston College
8. Indiana

9. Vanderbilt
9. Notre Dame
9. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
9. Butler

10. Michigan State
10. Georgia Tech
10. Syracuse
10. VCU (COLONIAL)

11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Illinois
11. Texas Tech
11. Missouri State

12. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
12. Old Dominion
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. Stanford

13. Massachusetts
13. WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)

14. AKRON (MAC)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)


15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. NIAGARA (MAAC)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. NORTH TEXAS (SUN BELT)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Florida State
West Virginia
Drexel
Bradley
Alabama
Arkansas

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Purdue
Georgia
Mississippi

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Clemson
Michigan
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Mississippi State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
San Diego State
Washington

Looking at the Colonial

I'm going to devote a whole post to the Colonial Conference, because it's the talk of the day after last night's exciting Final. After George Mason led almost the whole way (VCU only had one lead the entire game until the final few minutes), Eric Maynor went off and almost singlehandedly dragged VCU to the title. In a lot of ways that made things easier, since VCU was a true bubble team that we can stop worrying about now. And George Mason has no shot at an at-large, so a win for them would have stolen a spot from the rest of the bubble hopefuls. George Mason did end Hoftra's NCAA chances during the Quarterfinals, which leaves us with Drexel and Old Dominion:

The first step if to analyze which team should get in before the other. Drexel has the early lead with the superior out-of-conference resume. They had an excellent trio of games in December, where they won at Villanova, Syracuse and Temple. Best of all was probably the win at Creighton during Bracketbusters. Old Dominion played more top tier teams, but just didn't win enough. The win at Georgetown was excellent, but that's it. Still, that doesn't say to me that Drexel is a better team than Old Dominion, just that they had different opportunities. I don't think the Dragons could have won at Virginia Tech or against November's version of Clemson either. And I think Old Dominion would have had a great shot against Drexel's wins.

Moving into conference play, Old Dominion was clearly superior to Drexel, and I think that's where the real difference is. Not only did the Monarchs finish with the better record (15-3 to 13-5), but they were clearly better against the top teams. They swept Drexel and split with VCU. Drexel got swept by both Old Dominion and VCU. It's always better to judge teams against common opponents, and Old Dominion really looked a lot better against the common opponents. And, of course, both teams had pretty identical Colonial Tournament runs, so that's a wash.

Moving onto the computer numbers, Old Dominion's 37 RPI is a wash with Drexel's 38. Drexel's 12-5 road record is outstanding, but not much better than Old Dominion's 8-5. In conference, Old Dominion went 6-3 on the road, to Drexel's 7-2. Old Dominion does have better numbers against the top teams, with a 4-3 record vs. the RPI top 50 to 3-4 for Drexel. Jeff Sagarin isn't as impressed with both teams, but he again gives them a near wash: 68th for Old Dominion and 74th for Drexel.


It's getting time for a conclusion, which I think needs to come in three parts. The first is that on overall body of work, Old Dominion seems to just be a little bit better. Just a little bit of a better record, RPI, conference performance, head-to-head, Sagarin, vs. RPI Top 50, etc. I don't think anyone will disagree there. They even have finished stronger, with 12 straight wins before the Semifinal loss to VCU, vs. Drexel's 7 of the last 10. But that immediately brings us to the George Mason scenario - last year Hofstra swept George Mason, but missed out on the bid because of George Mason's superior out-of-conference resume. And this year, Drexel has the better out-of-conference resume. So shouldn't that overcome ODU? I disagree. For one, last year George Mason's resume against the rest of the conference was atleast as good as Hofstra's. They finished with a share of the regular season title while Hofstra was a game back. They also had pretty identical performances against the other top teams in the conference. This year, Old Dominion finished two games ahead of Drexel and had a better performance against the other top teams.

In the end, I don't think anyone can look at these performances and really think Old Dominion isn't the better team. Drexel could still get the bid first because they have more name reputation, and are getting more play on Sportscenter and other analysis shows. But I think Old Dominion's overall resume gets them in first. Both teams could still possibly get in, but the Horizon isn't getting three teams in unless a lot of stuff breaks right during the rest of this week. So for now I'm putting ODU in and keeping Drexel out, but I'm keeping both teams firmly on the bubble and we'll see how the rest of the week plays out.

Getting Left Behind

#11 Southern Illinois 53, Bradley 51
The inspiration for the title of this post. Taking SIU down to the wire and playing them this tough actually adds a little bit to a resume that is already pretty good. They already have 20 wins, and a fourth place finish in a conference that has a higher RPI than the Big 12 and Big East. The RPI is decent at 39. And their road record of 6-7 isn't too good, but actually looks pretty decent when you compare it to other bubble teams like Georgia Tech (1-8), Arkansas (2-8) and Florida State (4-8). If the season ended now, they'd have a great chance of getting in. I'd probably even put them in as the last or second to last team. But you'll also notice that after yesterday's games I took Bradley out of my BP65. How can those past two sentences be consistent? Well like I've consistently stressed to new readers to this site that complain, this website is a PREDICTION site, not a "what if the season ended now" site. And it seems silly, from my vantage point, to ignore the fact that there is another week of basketball left. Teams like Drexel, Florida State, Clemson, Arkansas and VCU are all going to get a chance for big wins. Some will get them and some won't. But there are going to be more good wins like Georgia Tech over UNC, and those wins are going to push new teams into the Tournament. Bradley is at a huge disadvantage in that they're done for the year. There is nothing else they can do to gain respect, to gain ground on other teams. When Georgia Tech beats UNC, Bradley drops a spot. This process should continue a few more times over the next week, and Bradley will most likely be knocked out of the Tournament.

Creighton 75, Missouri State 58
Speaking of the Valley, there were definitely some Tournament implications in the other Semifinal as well. The game meant less for a Creighton team that is already a lock for the Tournament. The RPI is a strong 25, and they're a good 10-7 agains the RPI Top 100. At this point, they're playing for seeding, with a loss here probably meaning something like a 10 or 11 seed. With the win they shouldn't do worse than a 9. A win over Southern Illinois in the Valley finals would give them a shot at something like a 6. Let's remember that the top seed in the Valley hasn't won the Tournament in almost a decade, so you can't count the Bluejays out based on that stat alone. That said, the larger implications were for a Missouri State team that has been on the bubble all year. At no point have a majority of people thought this didn't feel like a Tourney team, but at no point did it feel like the Bears were really going to blow away the Selection Committee either. I still feel like this is a Tourney team. An RPI of 38, a Sagarin rating of 29, and a decent 9-9 record against the RPI Top 100. They could possibly get screwed if Conference Tourney Week turns into a total mess (you can bet they'll be Butler fans on Tuesday). But it just seems like too much has to happen for the Missouri Valley not to get three teams. Right now, you've got to have the Bears in the Tournament.

#1 Ohio State 65, Michigan 61
I'm pretty sure that a couple weeks ago I called this obvious scenario. Michigan is always good but not good enough, and I think that both Tommy Amaker and the team he coaches need a fresh start and a new direction. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go during the offseason. Analysts discussed the 10-0 Buckeye run at the end of this game as evidence of the great strength of Ohio State. And while that's partly true, it ignores the greater issue: the total collapse of Michigan. Calling them terrible in the last two minutes of this game is to give the Wolverines too much credit. Missed dunks, missed free throws, matador defense and unforced turnovers - and all at home, on Senior Day, against their hated rival? This team will be on everyone's bubble watch until the end, but there's no way this team should get in barring a major upset in the Big 10 Tournament. I'd rather take a scrappy Purdue team if somebody wanted a sixth Big 10 team.

W-1 BP65

Final week! For the last week there will actually be three updates to the BP65. Partly because things move quickly. But mostly because all bracketology sites are judged on their final prediction, so I don't want to put myself at a disadvantage by not taking advantage of knowing the results of Sunday's conference title games. So, there will be an update after Wednesday night's games and Friday's nights games, followed by the final BP65 on the afternoon of Selection Sunday.

1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. FLORIDA (SEC)
2. Wisconsin
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas A&M

3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Pittsburgh
3. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
3. Washington State

4. Texas
4. NEVADA (WAC)
4. Maryland
4. Tennessee

5. Marquette
5. Virginia Tech
5. Duke
5. Kentucky

6. Oregon
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Villanova
6. Virginia

7. UNLV
7. Louisville
7. Arizona
7. USC

8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Air Force
8. Boston College
8. Creighton

9. Vanderbilt
9. Notre Dame
9. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
9. Indiana

10. Michigan State
10. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
10. Georgia Tech
10. Syracuse

11. Missouri State
11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Alabama
11. Illinois

12. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
12. Drexel
12. Texas Tech
12. VCU

13. Florida State
13. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
Bradley
Stanford
Arkansas

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Massachusetts
Purdue
Georgia
Mississippi

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Clemson
Providence
Michigan
Kansas State
Mississippi State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Hofstra
San Diego State
Washington

They're Starting To Fall

Championship Week is well underway, and we already have our first big casualty (Appalachian State). Meanwhile, other teams are trying their best to punch their own tickets (Georgia Tech). Of course, we should remember that every year features a few teams playing their way into the Tournament by getting hot in early March. This is bad news for teams like Florida State and Bradley that have good resumes, but are going to get leapfrogged unless they too can pull off a big upset.

Let's get to the most important games from the last two days:

Georgia Tech 84, #8 North Carolina 77
Not quite as much media attention for this performance, even though it was a lot more impressive, than the game that made Syracuse a "lock". In fact, at this point I'd say that Tech is in before Syracuse. I think they both get in - but if someone stays home it's going to be Syracuse. Tech has the better RPI, and though they are hurt by the atrocious road record (1-8) the Jackets have just played a lot more elite teams, and won a lot more of those games. They have an excellent 7-8 record versus the RPI Top 50, compared to the Orange's 3-5. What has to be on the minds of all Georgia Tech fans, however, is the NBA Draft. Are any of these young guys going to go pro? Their two offensive stars are both freshmen, and they have no seniors playing important roles. They can be a real threat to win the ACC next year if they can hang onto that talent.

Missouri State 67, Wichita State 64
A good win that the Bears needed to have. They came into the Missouri Valley tournament with a pretty good resume, that more likely than not would be good enough for a Tournament bid, but with teams like Georgia Tech knocking off UNC you can never be too sure of a bid. Especially since there is nothing about Missouri State's resume that will really blow away the committee, other than the very early season upset of Wisconsin. To be sure, avoiding an upset at the hands of the utterly disappointing Shockers was a plus. An upset of Creighton on Saturday would be the clincher for sure. Even without it, Missouri State is without a doubt the third team in the Valley pecking order. I can't see them only getting two teams.

College of Charleston 89, Appalachian State 87, OT
An incredibly disappointing loss for an Appalachian State team that I really wish could make the Tourney. They'd been on a great roll, but probably got caught looking ahead to Davidson. Definitely a surprise for a team with so much senior leadership and experience. They have played well when given the opportunity, including a very solid 5-2 record against the RPI Top 50. If they had lost the SoCon finals to Davidson in a close duel, I could easily see the Mountaineers sneaking in. But this loss dips the RPI outside the Top 60, and probably dooms them to the NIT. Would it be more fun to see this team get in than an 8th ACC team? Definitely. But you have to win a big game to define your season for the casual fan and the Selection Committee. Appalachian State needed to schedule a tougher out-of-conference schedule, to give themselves the chance to pull off a big upset or two. Wins at Virginia, Vanderbilt and Wichita State are nice, but nothing that screams at-large bid. I don't want to do it, but I'm going to have to pull Appalachian State out of the next BP65.