Wednesday, July 04, 2007

Post-Draft BP65

As promised, a new BP65 within a week of the NBA draft. The point of this one is to account for guys who went pro early. I made assumptions for the Preseason BP65, and some of the guys I assumed would go pro chose not to, and vice versa. Some of those errors will mostly cancel out. For example, Georgetown, where I assumed Roy Hibbert would go pro and Jeff Green would stay. I had forgotten the cardinal rule in scouting, that basketball ability and success takes a back seat to pure athletic talent when it comes to the Draft. I know that the mock drafts had him that high, but I am still shocked that anybody thought Jeff Green was one of the top five guys in the draft after he completely bombed in the most important game of his college career.

If I was running an NBA team, I would focus on college success. The best players on the best teams generally are not going to bomb. If they don't blow away everyone with their physical skills they might never be a Hall of Famer, but once you get past the first few picks in the draft you're not looking for a Hall of Famer anyway. By the time you reach the end of the first round, you are drafting for role players. At that point it's an absolute must to go for quality college players who you know will atleast be reasonable successful role players. I can't understand general managers reaching for 17 year old prospects from South Korea in the second round. Just look at the second round "steals" in recent years: Gilbert Arenas, Michael Redd, Carlos Boozer, Chris Duhon, Ryan Gomes. What do they all have in common? They all starred in the Pac-10, Big 10, ACC or Big East. If I was in charge, I can assure you that Arron Afflalo and Alando Tucker would not have gone 27th and 29th, respectively. I don't care if they aren't the right size or athleticism: Those guys won Player of the Year in BCS Conferences. That's enough for me.

Anyway, getting back to the topic at hand, some teams will get moved around because of changes to who went pro. Ohio State will struggle even more without Daequon Cook. Depaul loses Wilson Chandler. Georgia Tech is especially hard-hit as both Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young went in the first round. One final note: This will be the last BP65 until just before games start getting played, sometime around the first of November.



1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. OHIO STATE (BIG 10)
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
2. Michigan State

3. Georgetown
3. Duke
3. Arizona
3. Texas

4. Indiana
4. Alabama
4. Marquette
4. UConn

5. Oklahoma State
5. Washington State
5. Mississippi State
5. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)

6. Pittsburgh
6. Missouri
6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Washington

7. Kentucky
7. Clemson
7. Wisconsin
7. USC

8. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
8. Wichita State
8. Syracuse
8. BYU (MOUNTAIN WEST)

9. Florida
9. North Carolina State
9. GEORGE WASHINGTON (ATLANTIC 10)
9. Arkansas

10. Michigan
10. Texas Tech
10. Illinois
10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

11. Virginia Tech
11. VCU (COLONIAL)
11. Georgia Tech
11. Stanford

12. Texas A&M
12. Northern Iowa
12. LSU
12. Oregon

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. BUTLER (HORIZON)
13. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)

14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

15. YALE (IVY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
15. COPPIN STATE (MEAC)

16. SOUTHERN UTAH (MID-CON)
16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. LAMAR (SOUTHLAND)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, Virginia, Rhode Island, Xavier, Depaul, Cincinnati, Villanova, West Virginia, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Drexel, George Mason, Houston, Indiana State, New Mexico, San Diego State, California, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Nevada, Utah State

Other teams that can believe they have a plausible shot at an at-large bid:
Miami (Fl), Wake Forest, Fordham, Massachusetts, Notre Dame, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Penn State, Baylor, Iowa State, High Point, Hofstra, Old Dominion, Alabama-Birmingham, Southern Miss, UTEP, Wright State, Central Michigan, Miami (Ohio), Toledo, Bradley, Creighton, Illinois State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Utah, Arizona State, Bucknell, Appalachian State, Georgia, Ole Miss, South Carolina, South Alabama, San Diego, Saint Mary's, Fresno State, Hawaii