Sunday, November 30, 2008

W-15 BP65

I'll have more game recaps later today and tomorrow, but I want to get the new BP65 out before today's games get started:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)
1. UCONN (BIG EAST)
1. UCLA (PAC-10)

2. Notre Dame
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Duke
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. Purdue
3. Florida
3. Louisville
3. GONZAGA (WCC)

4. Wake Forest
4. Oklahoma
4. Pittsburgh
4. Georgetown

5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Syracuse
5. Kansas
5. Baylor

6. Clemson
6. Arizona State
6. Marquette
6. Wisconsin

7. Ohio State
7. Villanova
7. UNLV (MWC)
7. Maryland

8. USC
8. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
8. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
8. Miami (Fl)

9. Washington State
9. Kentucky
9. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
9. West Virginia

10. Michigan
10. Oklahoma State
10. Virginia Tech
10. Dayton

11. Texas A&M
11. Oregon
11. LSU
11. South Carolina

12. Utah
12. Missouri
12. KENT STATE (MAC)
12. SIENA (MAAC)

13. NEVADA (WAC)
13. BUTLER (HORIZON)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
14. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)

15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

16. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
16. MOUNT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. STETSON (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Florida State, NC State, Virginia, Rhode Island, Temple, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Illinois, Minnesota, UAB, Southern Miss, UTEP, Creighton, BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State, Arizona, California, Stanford, Alabama, Saint Mary's, San Diego, New Mexico State

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Georgia Tech, Charlotte, George Washington, UMass, Richmond, St. Louis, DePaul, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, Kansas State, Nebraska, Texas Tech, VCU, East Carolina, Houston, Illinois-Chicago, Rider, Miami (OH), Ohio, Bradley, Drake, Illinois State, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Washington, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee State, San Francisco, Fresno State, Utah State
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4 comments:

Unknown said...

Texas and UCLA as one-seeds?

Michigan State's loss to Maryland makes me want to see a few more wins from them before I once again think of them as in the top eight.

I'd probably put Cal in over Oregon right now, but I don't think I've seen Oregon play, so I guess I can't question that.

South Carolina? Really?

November 30, 2008 11:14 AM
Anonymous said...

As an East Carolina fan, I'm happy we made the list of teams that you should keep your eye on. It's been a long time coming, but I hope the Pirates can finish with a winning record and a postseason tourney berth.

-Greg

November 30, 2008 5:47 PM
Jeff said...

Well you can't think about how teams are ranked now, but how they will finish their conference. Almost every year, the four 1 seeds are four of the BCS conference champions. Assuming that the SEC champion doesn't get a 1 seed, and that no non-BCS team will get a 1 seed, that means that the 4 top seeds will go to the ACC and Big East champion, along with the champion of two of the following three: Pac-10, Big 12 and Big Ten. I chose to go with the first two.

I think few people disagree that UCLA is the favorite in the Pac-10, so you've got to make them a 1 seed or else you've got to put the Big Ten champion in. And Michigan State has got to be the Big 10 favorite, because even with that loss they've been the best performing Big Ten team, and they've done it all without Goran Suton.

I put Oregon in because I really like their style of play. They're going to steal a couple of good wins before all is said and done. They got rocked by UNC because they showed an uncharacteristic lack of effort over the first 5-10 minutes, and UNC just destroys any team that takes its foot off the pedal for a moment. I just feel like Cal has too low of a ceiling.

And South Carolina, I really like their depth and improvement. It's not like I'm picking them to contend in the SEC, but I'm pretty sure that they'll be a bubble team at the very least. They're definitely far improved over last season.

And East Carolina has back-to-back wins over VCU and Winthrop, without any bad losses, so they're worth keeping an eye on. They're still a long shot at-large team, though. They've got three ACC opponents coming up, so we should get a better idea of where they stand after those contests.

December 01, 2008 1:26 AM
Unknown said...

I still don't see UCLA is being a 1 seed. Unless they dominate in their early non-conference games (which they aren't, so far), then that whole conference is going to look weak. I suspect they will be passed in the rankings and RPI by teams that rise to the top from one of this years power conferences (a second team from the Big East?).

Also, why are you dismissing the idea of a SEC team getting a 1 seed? Tennessee looks far more worthy based on who they've played and how they've done. The Kansas and second Gonzaga game may determine if they get a 1 seed or not.

Coming from the other point of view, the Big Ten looks like it will have a stronger RPI record than the Pac 10. I assume you've implying that all the teams in that conference will come out with their records a bit battered from conference play, which seems legit -- no teams stand out above the rest.

Let me throw out a more wild possibility. If Gonzaga can beat Washington State & Arizona, dominates their conference (more likely than UCLA dominating the Pac 10), and doesn't lose to a good but less heralded non-conference team (Utah & Memphis), then they will be a very likely 1 seed. A loss to UConn would be forgiven, as would the rematch against Tennessee.

December 02, 2008 3:53 PM

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