Thursday, January 31, 2008

Midweek Update: Big East, SEC

Syracuse 71, Providence 64
UConn 69, Louisville 67
Cincinnati 62, West Virginia 39
Syracuse 60, Depaul 55
Key wins for Syracuse and UConn here. UConn is really on a tear here, and has pushed both the RPI and the Sagarin numbers inside the Top 20. Barring a huge collapse down the stretch, they'll be in the Tournament. Syracuse is not such a big slam dunk. The RPI is 36th and the Sagarin is 47th - both numbers which are right in the fat part of the bubble. The Orangemen have no bad losses, but have also struggled to get a signature win. If they make the Tournament, they will be one of those "look at the full resume" teams. They did a great job taking care of business this week, with two key wins to drive their Big East record to 5-4. They need to be a minimum of 10-8 in the Big East to get an at-large bid, and that is certainly very possible. If they continue to take care of business, and even steal an upset or two, they will get into the Tourney.

West Virginia is a more complicated case, especially with this atrocious loss to Cincinnati. Losing to the rapidly-improving Bearcats is not embarrassing, but the way that they shot was. Any time you shoot 20% from the field, you're going to have trouble beating anyone. Although you have to question Bob Huggins for allowing his team to continue chucking up three-pointers when they were headed for a 1-for-22 night from behind the arc. Either way, West Virginia would almost definitely still be an at-large team if the season ended now. The RPI is a very weak 48th, but the Sagarin is 32nd. More importantly, the Sagarin PREDICTOR is a remarkable eighth in the country. In other words, this is a hard-luck team that should finish strong. The schedule gets tough, but I see no reason that this team can't pull off an upset or two. They already have the win over Marquette, and with a 4-4 Big East record are poised for a solid finish in the Big East standings. If I had to project the rest of the way, I'd guess a 10-8 finish, which should be enough to get them in. But if they finish 9-9, they might well get left out. Without a doubt, the Mountaineers can't afford any more 20% shooting nights.


#8 Tennessee 93, Alabama 86
#22 Mississippi 74, #18 Vanderbilt 58
Arkansas 78, #25 Mississippi State 58
Tennessee and Ole Miss continue their strong runs. And Vandy should still be fine for an at-large bid. But the real story for the SEC was the Arkansas/Mississippi State game. I don't really know what the pollsters were thinking putting Mississippi State in the Top 25. I know that they were 5-0 in the SEC, but they haven't really beaten anybody. And if the season ended now, they definitely would not be in the Tournament. Still, 5-1 is pretty good, and they just need to take care of business the rest of the way. This was an unfortunate result for a team that needs to just keep winning. Without any glamor wins, even a 10-6 record in the SEC will almost definitely not be good enough for the Tournament. They need to get to 11-5 for me to take them seriously.

As for Arkansas, they're actually probably in a better overall position. The win at Baylor is looking better by the week, and this was a good win as well. They are a solid 4-2 in the SEC, and a strong 15-5 overall. They obviously need to get upwards of 22 or 23 wins to get an at-large bid, but that's not out of the question. Looking at the rest of their schedule, I'd probably project them to finish 9-7. And that won't be enough. But if they can pull off another upset or two, they can get to 10-6 or 11-5. Even 10-6 might be enough for this team. If not, the SEC could amazingly be looking at only four bids to the Tournament. Definitely a down year for a conference that had been so good in recent years.

Midweek Update: ACC, Big 12

I've been a bit delinquent the past few days. So I'll try to update the major conferences a couple at a time:

#3 Duke 93, Maryland 84
Georgia Tech 92, Virginia 82, OT
Maryland 75, #25 Clemson 72
Wake Forest 70, Miami (Fl) 68
Virginia Tech 89, Florida State 80
Maryland 85, Virginia 75
A lot of important jockeying in the ACC. The fact is that the ACC is probably the best conference in the land. I'll hear arguments for the Pac-10, but until this past week the ACC actually had zero teams with an RPI outside 100 - which is pretty remarkable. What that also means is that everybody in the conference will have a great strength of schedule and good computer numbers. Right now everybody is beating up on everybody else, so the RPIs are all stuck in the 50s and 60s. But at some point somebody has to beat somebody else and get up to around 10-6 or so. And anybody that gets to 10-6 will probably be a lock for the Tournament. And most anybody that gets to 9-7 should get in also. Which is why all those people who are projecting only four ACC teams into the Tournament are simply saying that they can't figure out which teams will get those wins.

The games played earlier this week actually did more to complicate things than to clear things up. You see wins for Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Maryland. Meanwhile, Miami and Clemson fell. Clemson would still be an obvious Tournament team if the season ended now, and should still get in when the season actually ends. They are only 3-3 in the ACC, but should be able to get to 9-7. The RPI is 30th, they have no bad losses, and they'll end up with more than ten wins against the RPI Top 100 (they already have five). Throw in a +.500 record on the road and they're looking good. Miami is not looking nearly so good, and missed a huge opportunity against Wake Forest. They are now 2-4 in the ACC and the schedule is just getting rougher. They have to play Duke and Florida State twice. And they have to head to Virginia Tech, Florida State and Clemson. Miami has great computer numbers, but a 6-10 ACC record is far too real of a possibility. In fact, without pulling off an upset or two, that's where they'll end up. In order to even get considered for an at-large bid, Miami needs to get to 7-9. And even 7-9 probably won't be enough. Things are looking bleak for a team with an RPI of 39.

Virginia Tech is an interesting case, because they had an atrocious out-of-conference schedule. They fell to Richmond, Penn State and Old Dominion. Without any good wins, the RPI is a poor 71st. But they are also 4-3 in the ACC, and the schedule strength is getting better with every ACC opponent. Not only that, but they're actually through the toughest part of their ACC schedule. They're done with Duke and Florida State, and only have UNC and Clemson once. A 10-6 record is a real possibility. If they really finish 6-3 the rest of the way the computer numbers will climb, and this will be a Tournament team. Sagarin agrees, as despite Va Tech's early bad losses he still gives them a PREDICTOR of 52nd. Speaking of the Sagarin PREDICTOR, another team it suggests keeping an eye on is Georgia Tech. A lot of people have been ignoring the Jackets because of that 10-9 record. They obviously need to finish more than a game over .500 to get an at-large bid, but they will get credit for a very tough schedule. Both the RPI and the Sagarin put them 57th, which isn't that far from an at-large bid. I'd say that they need to get to 10-6 in the ACC (they're 3-3 now), which is very reasonable if you look at their remaining schedule. They have an important out-of-conference game against the improving UConn Huskies as well. A win there would help the computer numbers, as well as the overall record.

A final team to keep an eye on is Florida State. The loss to Virginia Tech dropped them to a poor 2-5 ACC record, but their overall resume is still pretty good. They still have UNC twice, but don't be surprised to see an FSU pull that big upset this weekend when they get the Tar Heels at home. Meanwhile, the rest of the ACC schedule is very winnable. If Florida State can get to 9-7 they'll be an at-large team. A win over UNC would go a long way. Of course, there are other potential at-large teams here, but I have nothing new to say about them at this point. NC State, Maryland, Boston College and Wake Forest are all in the thick of things. Even the last place team, Virginia, is still alive. Although they obviously need a rapid improvement. I was shocked by those last two losses, and it really hurt their resume.


Oklahoma 64, Oklahoma State 61
#24 Kansas State 84, #2 Kansas 75
#23 Texas A&M 80, #10 Texas 63
Every day, the Big 12 looks more and more like they're on pace for at least five teams. If the season ended now, in fact, they'd almost definitely have six. Kansas, Texas and A&M have all looked safe for an at-large bid all season. Although I should note that this win for the Aggies should settle the nerves of A&M fans who got too worried during their losing streak. This is still a very good team that should still get a fairly high single-digit seed. As for the rest of the conference, it was a real jumble earlier on in the conference season. Thankfully for the Big 12, things have started to clear up. Oklahoma, Baylor and Kansas State all have been on strong runs, and are all looking better for an at-large bid by the day. As I type this, in fact, all three have an RPI inside the Top 30. Sagarin gives K-State a PREDICTOR of 15, so they should continue to win big. I don't think anybody was all too shocked that they backed up their talk last night against the Jayhawks. Oklahoma also has an overall Sagarin rating inside the Top 30. The only iffy team, as it's been since they made their move to the top of the conference, is Baylor.

Sagarin puts Baylor at an overall 33rd, but with a PREDICTOR of 45th. The overall record of 15-3, including 4-1 in the Big 12, looks great. But the schedule is weak, and you have to wonder if Baylor is going to fall into a losing streak as the schedule gets tougher. The win at Texas A&M was huge, but they still have to head to Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. If you look at their remaining schedule, it's very possible for Baylor to slip to 9-7. And if they drop that low, do they still get an at-large bid? I say no. I think they've got to finish 10-6, and they've got to finish strong. If they lose something like three of their last four games, it's going to look bad and it's going to keep them out.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

W-7 BP65

1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Duke

3. Texas
3. Washington State
3. Indiana
3. Marquette

4. Texas A&M
4. Wisconsin
4. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
4. Vanderbilt

5. Pittsburgh
5. Clemson
5. Mississippi
5. BUTLER (HORIZON)

6. DRAKE (MVC)
6. USC
6. UConn
6. Notre Dame

7. Ohio State
7. Oklahoma
7. Stanford
7. Kansas State

8. Arizona
8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. Oregon
8. Florida

9. Villanova
9. Florida State
9. Rhode Island
9. BYU (MWC)

10. Creighton
10. West Virginia
10. Boston College
10. Purdue

11. Saint Mary's
11. Louisville
11. Baylor
11. Virginia Tech

12. Missouri
12. Virginia
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. KENT STATE (MAC)

13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. NEVADA (WAC)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
14. CSU NORTHRIDGE (BIG WEST)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)

15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)
15. YALE (IVY)
15. HAMPTON (MEAC)

16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Miami (Fl), NC State, Wake Forest, Dayton, Massachusetts, Providence, Syracuse, Minnesota, Texas Tech, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, UNLV, Arizona State, Arkansas, Mississippi State, South Alabama

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Georgia Tech, Maryland, Duquesne, St. Joseph's, Seton Hall, VCU, Houston, Indiana State, San Diego State, California, Washington, Alabama, Georgia

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Charlotte, Temple, Cincinnati, Depaul, Illinois, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, UAB, Cleveland State, Akron, Ohio, New Mexico, Utah, Auburn, Utah State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
St. Louis, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska, Pacific, UCSB, Tulane, UCF, UTEP, Valparaiso, Wright State, Miami (OH), Bradley, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Kentucky, South Carolina, San Diego, Santa Clara, Boise State

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Saturday Update, Part II

Purdue 60, #11 Wisconsin 56
The Indiana loss was obviously bad for the Big Ten, but I think that this result was actually good for the conference. Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana and Ohio State all look headed to Tournament bids. But with Illinois shooting at an atrocious level and Minnesota unable to get a signature win, the conference might be headed to only four Tournament bids. This win puts Purdue on the right side of the bubble, for now at least. The weak schedule means that they still have poor computer numbers (that loss to Wofford really kills their numbers), but that will improve just as they continue to play in the Big Ten. And regardless of the computer numbers, a 6-1 record in the Big Ten will turn a lot of heads. This win now gives them something to brag about on Selection Sunday. The computer numbers will never be great, but if they finish 12-6 in the Big Ten (or better) it's hard to see them getting denied.

Mississippi State 88, Mississippi 68

Thie game has ramifications that will go beyond rivalry bragging rights. Don't look now, but Mississippi State is now 5-0 in the SEC, while Ole Miss is way back at 2-3. Overall, Ole Miss has played better this season, and the computer numbers still agree (Ole Miss has an RPI in the teens while Mississippi State hasn't punched through the Top 50 yet). But can we keep ignoring Misssippi State if they keep winning? The schedule does get tougher for the Bulldogs, of course. They have to play Tennessee next weekend, and still have to head to Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Florida. So they'll get a few losses, but there's no reason that they can't finish 11-5. And if that's enough to get the first seed out of the SEC West, they could have a favorable route to the SEC Tourney finals. I'm not going to project them into the Tournament yet, but they're getting close. I should point out that the Sagarin Ratings suggest that this Mississippi State run isn't too big of a surprise. Entering today, they had a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 78th and a PREDICTOR of 35th. Anytime your PREDICTOR jumps into the Top 30 (like Mississippi State's probably will when tomorrow's Sagarin numbers come out), you're in good position to make a run at a Tournament bid.

Richmond 80, #19 Dayton 63
I hope Dayton fans enjoyed seeing their team's name with a number in front of it, because this is the last they'll see that for a while. I've talked about this a lot, so I'm not going to rehash these Atlantic Ten issues. It will be interesting to see how the Bracket Matrix responds to Dayton's horrific week. There really are too many brackets on that page - I think I keep my text font pretty small, but I still can't even come close to getting all of those on the screen at once. The idea of combining everyone's logic is a great one, but some people just are a bit clueless. Anyone who had Dayton as a #3 seed should have their bracket privileges revoked. Okay, not really, but I was personally appalled at that. You can't have a Sagarin PREDICTOR in the 60s or 70s and hope to get anything close a #3 seed. My guess is that if the season ended today Dayton would still get in the Tournament. Probably something like an 8 or a 9 seed due to the strong RPI numbers (Realtimerpi has them 17th as I'm typing this). But I'm dropping them out altogether and moving Rhode Island in. Texas A&M's poor stretch was a fluke, but Dayton's poor stretch is a trend. They should take care of St. Louis at home, but I would project them to lose at Rhode Island next weekend. That puts them at four losses in conference, and I think most people agree that Dayton has to finish 11-5 or better to get an at-large bid. That's just not enough wiggle room for a team that will probably have another upset loss or two. These guys are out of the BP65 unless they show significant improvement.

#9 Georgetown 58, West Virginia 57

Amazing finish in this game. In college basketball, experience is just so important towards the end of games. West Virginia is a building team that plays a lot of young guys. Georgetown is one of the most experienced teams in the Top 25, and they know how to steal a win. A month ago, you would have said that both Marquette and Pitt had a great shot to win the Big East, with other dark horses in the waiting like Louisville. But right now, Georgetown just seems to be running away with this thing. Pitt's injuries have been devastating, and Marquette has just been too inconsistent. Barring a big turn of events, Georgetown will win the conference to more-or-less guarantee a top two seed in the Tournament. As for West Virginia, they let a huge opportunity go here. They're still probably on the right side of the bubble, but this win would have allowed them to shoot way up the charts. They could have been 5-2 with a signature win and an RPI near 20th in the country. But there's a reason that you get so much benefit for beating a Top Ten team - it's supposed to be hard to do. The Mountaineers would be a Tournament lock if they could get to 11-7 in the Big East, but the schedule makers didn't do them any favors. They still have to head to Pitt, UConn, Villanova and Providence. And the home slate includes Pitt and the suddenly-dangerous Rutgers team. Hard to see them finding a way to only lose four games the rest of the way. Depending on how many more signature wins they get, 10-8 will probably still get them in the Tournament. But it will depend what happens around the rest of the country. West Virginia could have really grabbed hold of their Tournament destiny with a win in this one. Now they're probably going to be doing a lot of scoreboard watching the rest of the way.

Saturday Update, Part I

I'm going to talk about the most important games from today. So many games were played that I can't possibly get to all of them, but I want to talk about enough of them that I'm going to break it up into a few different posts. As usual, I'll talk about games in more or less a chronological order:

Notre Dame 90, #18 Villanova 80
A very impressive showing for the Irish in this one. The perception one has watching them play is that they aren't very athletic, but that they have a bunch of good shooters both on the inside and the outside. Villanova did what you'd expect them to do here - they pushed the pace and tried to out-athlete the Irish. And in a lot of ways, they succeeded. They forced 15 turnovers and out-rebounded Notre Dame, leading to nineteen more shots from the field. But Notre Dame's shooting was out of this world - above 50% from the field, including 9 for 19 from behind the arc. This was an imperative win for a Notre Dame team that has been lying in the weeds, below the radar of ESPN and many bracketologists. A loss here would have dropped them to 3-3 in the Big East with an RPI approaching 50th. Instead the RPI is up to 37th, with the 4-2 Big East record. Notre Dame lacks any real stand-out win (this one is their most impressive, actually), but they are the dictionary definition of "overall resume". They have just been a solid team all year, racking up wins against a fairly good schedule. They are 10-0 against teams with an RPI worse than 75, which shows a good job of not taking a night off. Meanwhile, Villanova is slipping out of the Tournament. This loss drops the RPI out of the Top 50, and they need to get that Big East record back over .500. They have been the anti-Notre Dame in a lot of ways, by pulling off a big win or two while also dropping games against a couple of really bad opponents. If Villanova can get to 11-7 in the Big East they're a lock for the Tournament. But this 3-4 start makes it more likely they'll end up at 10-8, which might not be quite enough.

UConn 68, #8 Indiana 63
Probably the most surprising result of the day. UConn was playing without the suspended Jerome Dyson and Doug Wiggins, yet shut down Eric Gordon (14 points on 5-of-16 shooting) and beat the Hoosiers at Assembly Hall. I will tell you that the effect of the suspensions might be overrated by the media in this case. UConn absolutely oozes talent - in my mind, they have Top Ten talent. We talk all the time about teams whose total value is greater than the sum of its parts, but UConn is a team whose parts sum up to a lot more than the total. At least so far. I can't pretend to know what the specific chemistry problem was, but if kicking out Dyson and Wiggins improved the chemistry then UConn could actually become a better team. The Huskies had a great balanced attack in this one, with five double-digit scorers. They also dominated the boards (41 to 26), which has got to be a bad sign for Indiana as they get ready to face the big bodies of Wisconsin and Michigan State. UConn has great computer numbers, with an RPI inside the Top 25 and a Sagarin Rating most likely to be around there when the numbers come out tomorrow morning. If the season ended now, I think they'd be somewhere around an 8 seed or so. But if you look at their remaining schedule, it's really very easy. No more Marquette or Georgetown, and they only have to play Pitt at home. I would not be at all surprised to see the Huskies end up at 12-6 in the Big East, which could drive their seed even higher. I will probably move them up somewhere around a 6 or 7 seed, depending on what else happens the rest of the day.

Kentucky 78, South Carolina 70
In one way, this game wasn't a huge surprise. The Gamecocks have struggled this year, and are near the point that I'm going to drop them from bubble consideration. They are 1-4 in the SEC, 9-10 overall, and the RPI is well outside the Top 100. But still, you can't help but notice that Kentucky's hot shooting (51% from the field, 62% from behind the arc) has driven them to an SEC record over .500 (3-2), and up to .500 overall (9-9). The RPI is still outside the Top 100, but what happens if Kentucky keeps winning? The real test will be in their next two games, at Georgia and at Auburn. Neither of those teams are very good, but Kentucky is still 0-5 in road and neutral games this season. If they drop one or both of these games we'll know that it's just Kentucky's home crowd driving the Wildcats to victories, and we can forget about them getting bubble consideration. Kentucky has talent, but they lose when they don't show effort. If they show effort on both the offensive and defensive ends, and win those next two games, then what? They play Alabama at home, where Kentucky will probably be favored. You look at their remaining schedule, and you can easily see that a 10-6 SEC record is not all too unlikely. But a 10-6 SEC record won't get a team with Kentucky's out-of-conference disasters into the Tournament. But what if they get to 11-5? I don't know, I can't think of another team in recent years that had such a dichotomy. I suppose the answer is that we'll worry about it when we get there. If Kentucky drops four more games in the regular season, we can just forget about them. Maybe the NIT will take them.

Missouri 66, Colorado 62
A huge comeback for Mike Anderson's boys, in a win that might have saved their Tournament chances. The Tigers had fallen to seventh or eighth in the Big 12 pecking order, which is unacceptable in a conference that might only get four or five Tournament teams. And with under eight minutes to go in this one, they trailed by double-digits to bottom-feeder Colorado. So what did Missouri do? They hustled. Nobody hustles like Missouri, as they harassed Colorado into 16 turnovers. Several of those turnovers came at the key point in this game, with about five to eight minutes left in the game. A loss here would have dropped Missouri's RPI out of the Top 100, but this win moves it into the Top 80. And with a 2-3 record in conference, they are in position to finish with a decent place in the Big 12 standings. You look at their remaining schedule, and it's really not that bad. They're done with Texas and Texas Tech, and only have Kansas once. Barring a huge upset (like a win at Kansas), I don't think that 9-7 will be enough for Missouri to get an at-large bid. In my mind, they've got to get to 10-6. It's a tough task, but it's not impossible. They're worth keeping an eye on.

Oklahoma 77, Baylor 71
Sticking with the Big 12, Baylor clearly had a letdown game in this one. I always remind my readers that teams often follow up huge wins with disappointing performances. It's simply natural to have a letdown. And Baylor stuck with the script, looking mediocre in the early going of this one. By the mid-point of the second half, Oklahoma had opened up a 16 point lead. At that point, Baylor turned it on and made a frantic comeback, actually get a brief one point lead with a little bit under two minutes to go. But in the end, the difference was Blake Griffin. With all of the over-hyping of freshmen this season, it's hard to imagine a freshman not getting enough attention. But the most underrated freshman nationwide has got to be Griffin. He came back from injury in a big way against Baylor, putting up 17 points and 15 boards. This game could possibly have huge ramifications later on in the season. Assuming Texas A&M gets their act together and wraps up a Tournament bid, these two teams could be dueling for the 4th spot in the conference. Depending on how things go, this conference might only get four or five teams in. And room could get even tighter if a team like Kansas State finishes strong.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Heading Into the Weekend

Just a quick post that will have to keep you until tomorrow. A few important games went down on Wednesday night, and I spoke about some of the most important results here. And as usual, nothing much of note on Friday night. So that just leaves Thursday evening's games. For the most part, Thursday evening was a Pac 10 showcase, but I'll start with the most important non-Pac 10 game:

#22 Xavier 69, #19 Dayton 43
Xavier's suffocating defense had its best performance of the year so far. A Dayton team that had been shooting the lights out was held to 30% from the field and 11% (2-for-18) from behind the arc. In general, a loss at Xavier would not be embarrassing for any team. But getting creamed this badly will be held against the Flyers. It's hard to tell what to make of their resume. In the out-of-conference part of the schedule Dayton had a slew of upsets. A win at Louisville, and the 25 point whooping of Pitt are both hugely impressive. The RPI is still outstanding (inside the Top 20). But a double-digit home loss to UMass followed by a 26 point demolition by Xavier? In and of themselves, they are outweighed by the Louisville and Pitt wins. Forget the scores - losses to UMass and Xavier aren't embarrassing by any means. If Dayton gets their act together and finishes 11-5 or 12-6 in the A-10, they're still probably getting an at-large bid. But I'm going to argue that I think these losses are indicative of the fact that Dayton was just overrated. The Pitt game involved a serious injury to Levance Fields, and came in the game after Mike Cook's (possibly) season-ending injury. Clearly Pitt struggled horribly dealing with new line-up combinations. And Dayton also has a history beating Louisville, including last season. Those wins still happened and still help the resume, but they make you think that this Dayton team is in for a disappointing second half. The Sagarin Ratings agree: His ELO_CHESS more or less agrees with the RPI (20th in the country) while his PREDICTOR agrees with my predictions (73rd in the Country). The ELO_CHESS and PREDICTOR will rarely end up a season with that kind of disparity, and historically it has been the PREDICTOR which is the better barometer of where the team will end the season. Depending on what happens tomorrow, I will put serious thought into moving Rhode Island into the Tournament while moving Dayton out. I'm sticking with my prediction of two A-10 teams in the Tournament, but I might change my projection of which two teams those are. Xavier's win here, obviously, doesn't change my projection of them as A-10 champions.

Arizona 76, #6 Washington State 64
Washington 72, Arizona State 61
#7 UCLA 80, Oregon 75
I'm just going to tackle the Pac-10 slate all at once. First of all, a key comeback for UCLA last night. I was too tired to stay up for the end of that game, and the Bruins were losing when I called it a night. In fact, UCLA was losing almost the entire second half before grabbing a lead with about 2 1/2 minutes to go. I think most analysts still expect UCLA to beat Washington State for the Pac-10 title, but many had begun projecting Tennessee as a #1 until the Vols went down to Kentucky this past week. By squeezing out a win here, the Bruins will hang onto the perception as an eventual #1 seed. They'll still most likely be ranked 5th, but I expect Duke to lose at least two out of three to the Tar Heels, and that will allow the Bruins to slide into the fourth #1 seed.

As for Washington State, I think they're walking a bit of a tight-rope here. They took a risk by playing a very, very weak out-of-conference schedule. The win over Baylor looks better than it did at the time, but the Gonzaga win looks less so. Their 12-0 start in the out-of-conference was impressive, but their non-conference RPI of 240th is really pathetic for a team hoping for a top seed. If they can roll through the Pac-1o then all will be well. Even a 13-5 record in the Pac-10, followed by a trip to the Pac-10 Tourney finals would make them 27-6 overall, and nobody will care how weak their out-of-conference schedule was. But if they lose a couple games in a row, or maybe get knocked out early in the Pac-10 Tourney, the Cougars could find their Tournament seed tumbling. For now the RPI is 18th, with a Sagarin Rating of 9th, so they're still safe. But they can't have too many of these losses.

As for Arizona, the RPI is up to a very solid 7th in the land. But recall that their RPI of 14th last season only landed them an 8 seed. The fact is that the Selection Committee just isn't that excited about a tough strength of schedule if you keep losing these games (the RPI can actually bias towards teams that play very tough schedules and lose all the games). Last year's Wildcats team had the #2 strength of schedule in the country, and they are #1 so far this season. This year's team has a very unimpressive 12-6 record, but they have no "bad" losses. This win will be good for the resume, but the lesson we learned last year is that you have got to finish with a good record to be considered for a top seed. 20-10 just won't cut it again. The problem is that Arizona's remaining schedule is pretty brutal. They have to play at USC and UCLA in a 48 hour stretch. And they still have games at Wazzu and Oregon. Don't be surprised for a repeat of last season, with an RPI in the teens but a 7 or 8 seed.

The most devastating loss among these three games was probably that of Arizona State. The record is still a very good 14-4, but their strength of schedule is pathetic. They had an out-of-conference RPI of 325th, which you almost wouldn't think was possible for a BCS conference team. Arizona State is the anti-Arizona in a lot of ways - their sterling record only gets them an RPI barely inside the Top 90. Just the increase in strength of schedule should move the RPI up quite a bit, but the Sun Devils can't finish 10-8 in the Pac-10 and expect to get an at-large bid. I understand that James Harden was limping through this one, but the Selection Committee really isn't going to care - all they'll see is a loss at home to Washington.

Finishing up, we come to Washington and Oregon. Oregon remains a likely Tournament team, although the RPI is approaching dangerous levels. Those back-to-back losses to Nebraska and Oakland could come back to haunt the Ducks if they can't finish in the top half of the Pac-10. As for Washington, this win keeps them alive and well on the bubble. The computer numbers are bad, but last year's Stanford team can remind them that a good finish in a good conference will get you in the Tournament regardless of a bad RPI. The Huskies are poised for a run up the conference, with a decent 3-3 record. If they can win a few straight games to get a couple of games over .500 in the Pac-10, they'll certainly be worth some at-large discussion.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Missed Opportunities

An update on the most important games from the past couple of days. The theme of this blog post is missed opportunities:

#9 Georgetown 64, Syracuse 62, OT
An exciting game before everything bogged down in overtime. Syracuse looked pretty inexperienced in tight situations, and really struggled to get good shots with the pressure on. To go with the theme of this post, this was a win that Syracuse really could have used. This would have given them a win to stand out on their resume, and it would have moved them up near the top of the Big East standings. Instead, their best win remains the squeaker over Virginia a while back. They don't have any glaring bad losses, but the RPI has nearly slipped out of the Top 40. And they are a very disappointing 2-7 against the RPI Top 100. It's impossible to get an at-large bid with those kinds of numbers, so the Orangemen need to find a way to steal a win over one of the Big East powers. To be sure, the schedule-makers have set them up with opportunities. Marquette, Pitt and Georgetown are all heading to the Carrier Dome later this season.

#12 Texas 63, Oklahoma State 61

Not quite last year's classic, but a good game nonetheless. Texas led most of the way, but had to hold off a late OSU comeback. Lucky for the Longhorns, JamesOn Curry wasn't around to spark the Cowboys attack like he did last year. The Longhorns were sparked by DJ Augustin, who was deadly accurate from behind the arc (3 for 4) en route to a game-high 26 points. This was a huge missed opportunity for Oklahoma State to get back in the bubble discussion. A win would have put them at 2-2 in the Big 12 with a huge win over Texas. Instead, they remain with zero wins over the RPI Top 50, an overall record of 9-8 and an RPI outside the Top 100. They're still in the discussion if they can get hot and go on a run, but right now they're so far out of the picture that they're not even being discussed on most bubble watches.

#25 Clemson 80, Wake Forest 75, OT
Clemson saves their spot in the Top 25 in this messy win over Wake Forest. I say "messy" because neither team could hang onto the ball in this one, with both teams hitting the 20 turnover mark. KC Rivers was a monster in this one with 19 points and 11 boards. But the difference was Wake Forest's atrocious shooting, including 22% from behind the arc and 47% from the line. Clemson is now 4th in the ACC standings and has the third highest RPI in the conference (24th, entering tonight). So they're looking pretty good for the Tournament. But Wake Forest is sitting outside the Tournament, and a win here would have really put them right in the meaty part of the bubble. Right now, Wake Forest's RPI sits near 70th, which obviously needs to improve for an at-large bid. But their 3-5 record against the RPI Top 100 isn't that bad at all. And considering that every opponent they play from here on out is in the RPI Top 100, a Wake Forest team that finishes in the middle of the pack in the ACC will end up with a pretty nice record against high RPI teams. But they really need one of those big resume-building wins, and this certainly would have been one.

Kentucky 72, #5 Tennessee 66

In this case, the missed opportunity was for Tennessee. With UCLA's loss, the fourth #1 seed is suddenly available. Considering that the #3 and #4 teams in the country (Duke and UNC, respectively) have to play each other two (possibly three) more times this season, it's very unlikely that both of those teams will get a #1. That put Tennessee in line for a #1... for about two days. They can still put themselves in the mix again if they can upset Memphis, but Tennessee really needed to avoid games like this. The SEC is down this year, and there aren't a lot of quality losses. Their RPI is still #1 overall, but I expect that to drop as their schedule strength drops relative to teams like Kansas and UNC. This game did expose a real weakness for this Tennessee squad, which is that they can rely too much on the three-pointer. They went 7-for-26 in this one. The Vols need to realize that when it's not falling you just have to stop shooting it. Tennessee is so much better than Kentucky, and they didn't need to keep throwing up junk from behind the arc. As for Kentucky, most of us were ready to write them off as an embarrassment when their RPI dropped near 250th in the country. They've halved that, to around 150th as I type this. Still way, way out of at-large consideration. But if Kentucky finishes 11-5 in the SEC, they'd certainly make for interesting at-large discussion, wouldn't they? I still think they're a very, very, very long shot to get an at-large bid. But they're worth paying attention to, so I still have them mentioned in my BP65.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Want to make your own bracket?

I've been putting the necessary materials in the "Other Important Links" to the right of this post. Some of these links weren't live early in the season, but now they're all ready for you. The final addition, Warren Nolan's "Nitty Gritty Report" now has its updated link. It's a great reference for stats like "Record vs. the RPI Top 50" that you'll hear me talk about a lot as the season goes along. The Selection Committee cares a lot about this type of statistics, in addition to simple things like conference record and RPI.

W-8 BP65

This is my first BP65 after January 15th, which means that I am starting to narrow the field. I am including every single team that I think has any kind of possibility of making the Tournament. Each week, from here on out, I will delete the teams who have blown their final chance of making the Tournament. No more teams will get added. This means that I will include a bunch of teams that people will say "come on, they don't have any chance at all", but it's because weird things happen. I want to include any team that could possibly make the Tournament, not just the teams with decent chances.

I am adding a fourth category at the bottom of the BP65, to include these teams that "need a miracle" to make the Tournament as an at-large. Enough talking, so let's get to it:

1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Duke

3. Marquette
3. Texas
3. Washington State
3. Pittsburgh

4. Texas A&M
4. Indiana
4. Stanford
4. Wisconsin

5. Mississippi
5. Oregon
5. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
5. Vanderbilt

6. Villanova
6. BUTLER (HORIZON)
6. Florida
6. Clemson

7. Arizona
7. Ohio State
7. West Virginia
7. Louisville

8. Creighton (MVC)
8. Notre Dame
8. Syracuse
8. Kansas State

9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. USC
9. Drake
9. Oklahoma

10. UConn
10. Florida State
10. Boston College
10. BYU (MWC)

11. California
11. Dayton
11. Arkansas
11. Miami (Fl)

12. Baylor
12. Arizona State
12. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

13. NEVADA (WAC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. MARIST (MAAC)

14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. ORAL ROBERT (SUMMIT)
14. CSU NORTHRIDGE (BIG WEST)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)

15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. YALE (IVY)

16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
NC State, Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Providence, Minnesota, Purdue, Missouri, Texas Tech, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, San Diego State, Mississippi State, South Alabama, Saint Mary's

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Duquesne, St. Joseph's, Temple, Seton Hall, Illinois, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, VCU, Houston, Cleveland State, Valparaiso, Indiana State, Missouri State, New Mexico, UNLV, Washington, Georgia

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Charlotte, Cincinnati, Depaul, South Florida, Penn State, Nebraska, Tulane, UAB, UTEP, Miami (OH), Ohio, Bradley, Utah, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Utah State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
St. Louis, St. John's, Iowa, Colorado, Pacific, UCSB, Delaware, James Madison, UCF, Wright State, Akron, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Kentucky, LSU, San Diego, Santa Clara, Boise State

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Upset Saturday

Sorry about being delinquent with the posting. I've been a bit busy today. Not too busy to keep me from getting to watch a bunch of the action... but busy enough to keep me from putting these long posts together. Anyway, I'm going to start with the early games and I'll work my way back to the present:

USC 72, #4 UCLA 63
I've gotten a lot of grief for keeping USC in my bracket. But then you see games like this, and it's remarkable how much talent this team has. Davon Jefferson and OJ Mayo are not the only future-NBA players on the squad, but they led the charge today. USC was able to get to the basket at will, and even made their shots from distance when they came up (4-for-8 from behind the arc). Meanwhile, UCLA seemed absolutely flummoxed by the USC zone. They settled for far too many outside shots, including 27 three-pointers. All in all, UCLA just seemed to be looking past this game, or just unprepared in a more general sense. Very surprising for a Ben Howland squad. In the all-important Mayo/Love match-up, Love did have a good game (18 points and 8 offensive rebounds). But nobody else on UCLA showed up for this one, on the offensive or defensive end. I'm not taking away UCLA's #1 seed, but the Bruins are clearly the most likely to fall out if a team like Tennessee steals a top seed.

Purdue 74, Illinois 67
Purdue hasn't gotten a lot of attention this year. Most analysts (myself included) thought that this team would take a step back without Carl Landry, but Matt Painter is really establishing himself as one of the best coaches in the Big Ten. As usual, Purdue won with hustle. They were undersized against Illinois, and were badly out-rebounded, but managed to get extra possessions and free points with 21 forced turnovers. It also helps that Keaton Grant has really blossomed in his second season, after a mediocre freshman year. Still, the Boilermakers have to explain away the back-to-back losses to Wofford and Iowa State. The RPI is still suffering, as Purdue is still outside the top 70 despite a 4-1 Big Ten record. Because of the poor computer numbers and out-of-conference resume, I'm thinking that an 11-7 season probably won't be enough for the Boilermakers. They probably need to get to 12-6.

Maryland 82, #1 North Carolina 80
And then there were two. I hope Memphis has some kind words to say as they slip past the Tar Heels to the #1 spot in this coming Monday's poll. Honestly, nobody could have been too surprised about this result. Not that North Carolina would lose this particular game - but just that they were due to lose a game in general. Just like Vanderbilt, UNC has won a lot of very close games in a row. It doesn't matter how good or clutch you are - if you play enough close games you're going to end up losing some. It's just a matter of probability. Honestly, I think that all of these close games are going to make Carolina a very, very tough team to beat in March. What happens when a squad like Memphis ends up in a close finish in a Tournament game? Most of their experience this season will be beating up on inferior competition. North Carolina is a relatively experienced team that will be very battle-tested. These close games are going to give them great late-game experience for their March run. Despite this loss, they are obviously still the favorites in the ACC, and they are still looking pretty good for a #1 seed.

Cincinnati 62, #16 Pittsburgh 59
Mick Cronin is really building a very, very dangerous squad at Cincinnati. He still has a pretty low name recognition nationwide, but I think that's going to start to change as he builds a real power at Cincy. Of course, let's remember that Rome wasn't built in a day. This team went 2-14 in the Big East last year (11-19 overall), so just making the Big East Tournament would make this a fairly successful season. And losses to Belmont and Bowling Green probably destroyed any chances this team had at a miracle run to the Tournament. But I don't think anybody in the Big East is happy about playing the Bearcats right now. Especially a Pitt team that has had serious injuries which are finally starting to catch up to them.

Kansas State 75, Texas A&M 54
It seemed like Texas A&M was starting to take control of this game late in the first half, and then again in the early second half. But then someone put a lid on the rim. Between about 19 minutes and 4 1/2 minutes left in the second half, the Aggies hit a grand total of one shot from the field. They were a total of 1-for-16 from the field over that stretch. It's not that Kansas State didn't play good defense, but you need some help for a team to shoot that poorly. And this is two straight games that this has happened to Texas A&M, leading to two straight blow-out losses to Big 12 opponents. And it's not just the score differential, as Texas A&M's RPI has dropped out of the Top 40. I still think that they will cruise to an at-large bid, but Mark Turgeon had better come up with some good shooting drills pretty soon. Doesn't matter how good your offense executes if you can't hit the open shot. Kansas State fans should also note that this win pushes their RPI back inside the Top 50. If the season ended now, they probably would still be short of an at-large bid. But I've been keeping them in my bracket because I'm expecting their young talent to learn to play together and make a good final push (much like USC). With Kansas on the horizon, it's important for the Wildcats to take care of business in their winnable match-ups. Their next two games are against Colorado and Iowa State, two games which these guys need to win if they're going to continue to build on this solid win.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

So-Far on Thursday

The night obviously isn't over, but there have been a few important results already. Let's get to them:

Louisville 71, #13 Marquette 51

Louisville plays good defense in general, and they were very active in this one... but you need a little bit of help from your opponent for them to have an o-fer night from behind the arc. All in all, the Golden Eagles shot 30% from the field, which you can't do if you're going to hang with an underrated Louisville team. This was a tough game for Marquette in that a win wouldn't exactly send shock waves through the basketball world, but a loss wasn't all too unlikely even if they shot well. Louisville is getting healthy, which means that they are turning into the elite team that a lot of analysts thought they would be during the pre-season. The RPI is up into the Top 40, and will continue to improve if the Cardinals keep playing this kind of suffocating defense. Meanwhile, Marquette fails to cash in on Georgetown's loss earlier this week. They now have two losses in the Big East, and need to get hot quickly if they're going to make a run at the regular season conference title.

#7 Tennessee 80, #14 Vanderbilt 60
Yet another amazingly impressive performance for Tennessee. At this point, we might want to re-think the idea that all of the #1 seeds are locked up already. If the Vols can run through the SEC, they might earn a shot at a #1 seed when they head to Memphis in late February. You might as well go ahead and circle February 23rd on your calendar, because no college basketball fan is going to want to miss that match-up. Both Tennessee and Memphis ooze athletic talent and play upbeat, exciting basketball. Don't be surprised if somebody breaks 90 points in that one. As for Vanderbilt, I got some grief on the Vandy fan forums when I compared this team to last year's Clemson team. But the test will come this week. A 16-0 start followed by two fairly poor losses? Sounds a bit too familiar. They are standing on a precipice right now, and need to walk away from the edge by beating up on a pretty bad LSU team at home this weekend. To be fair, this year's Vanderbilt team is better and more senior-heavy (i.e. mature) than last year's Clemson team. I think this team will still make the Tournament with a high single-digit seed. It's not embarrassing to lose to Tennessee by any means. But keep an eye on the LSU game on Saturday, because it's followed by games at Florida and Ole Miss. A loss to LSU could be part of a 5-game losing streak. And let's just say that wouldn't be good for confidence.

Cleveland State 56, #12 Butler 52
This was due to happen. All season, Butler has been playing lackadaisical first halves and followed it up with strong second halves. Finally, a poor first half caught up with them. Although as much as this is going to be discussed as a huge upset, Horizon League fans will probably be quick to point out that Cleveland State actually went into this game with the conference lead already. They are now 6-0, with both Valpo and Butler back with two losses. Since Cleveland State has spent so much time bottom-feeding in the Horizon in recent years, can the Vikings hang onto this lead? I'm not ready to say that quite yet. Butler is still obviously the best team in the conference, and Valpo has a history of winning big games under Homer Drew. Cedric Jackson and J'Nathan Bullock are both having great seasons, but I haven't seen enough of them to really compare their overall talent level to the other big boys in the Horizon League. But even if this team fails in its effort to steal a Tournament bid, the aforementioned dynamic duo is a set of Juniors. Keeping in mind how much talent Butler loses to graduation (Graves, Green & Betko), Cleveland State could very well find itself the favorites to win the conference next year.

A-10 Nightmare

For those who don't read the comments on my posts here, the Atlantic Ten has been a constant source of debate. The question has been whether the conference is worthy of the hype that they're on pace for three, or even four bids to the Tournament. I have consistently argued that these teams are going to start racking up losses. The Atlantic Ten is an unfortunate conference to be in because you have to survive against very good opponents (like UMass, Temple and Duqesne) while also taking the RPI hits against bad teams like Lasalle and St. Bonaventure. And God forbid you blow a game to the latter type of team.

So that brings us to the past 24 hours, where Xavier lost at Temple, Dayton lost to Umass, and Rhode Island fell at St. Louis. Xavier, Dayton and Rhode Island all entered this week ranked. This coming Monday, the Atlantic Ten may lose all of their ranked teams.

I've said that the only way the Atlantic Ten will get three or four teams will be if those teams clearly separate themselves from the pack. Basically if they beat each other but then roll through everybody else. This is why Rhode Island's loss at Dayton wasn't a problem, since one of those teams has to lose everytime they get together. And even Dayton's loss to Umass isn't that bad since Umass is a bubble team in their own right. With the win, their RPI jumps up near the Top 20. But Xavier's loss to Temple is a problem. And Rhode Island's loss to a fairly dysfunctional St. Louis team is a real problem.

I think I'm still going to project Xavier and Dayton as the two teams to make the Tournament out of the conference. They have been my two picks the past couple of weeks, and they had "better" losses than Rhode Island did. With Rhode Island now dropping to 1-2 in conference, they might actually no longer be the third pick out of the conference. At the time of writing this post, Rhode Island's RPI hasn't yet updated from tonight's loss. But I would expect it will actually drop below that of the Minutemen.


All in all, this is a mess for the Atlantic Ten. You've got to make it easy for the Selection Committee. If you give them three teams that blew out the rest of the conference, it's easy for the Selection Committee to take those three teams. But if you have a four- or five-team free-for-all, the Selection Committee might throw up their hands and move on to teams that are more clear-cut Tournament teams. It's still early, and it's still possible for three or four teams to separate themselves. But it's got to start soon, because we're less than two months from Selection Sunday.

Whatever-It-Was-Called Tuesday/Wednesday

Maybe I've lost perspective here, but it seems like we have far more great games being played during the week this season. ESPN now advertises its Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday night games, each with a different cute name and each with a different sponsor. Really great stuff - college football just can't match this kind of day-after-day excitement. But before I get to tonight's games, let's talk a bit about some action from earlier this week:

#11 Michigan State 66, Ohio State 60
Can't be too encouraged by this performance if you're a Spartans fan. They got off to a great start and then basically went to sleep for about an hour. Lucky for them, Ohio State struggled with the three all-night (6 for 22 for the game) and ran out of time before they could complete the comeback. I still think the Spartans are the favorites to win the Big Ten, but they need to continue to fight through these games. Michigan State doesn't have overwhelming athletic talent. They win with strength and toughness. As for the Buckeyes, you can't feel too bad about losing on the road to the best team in the conference (as my readers all know, the Top 25 doesn't rank teams by how good they, because most analysts recognize that Michigan State is a better team than Indiana). Ohio State's overall record won't blow you away (12-5 overall, 3-2 in the Big Ten), but they've played through a very tough schedule (and it doesn't get any easier this weekend when they head to Tennessee). So the computer numbers are going to be strong. In my mind, this team is basically a lock for the Tournament. I'd be shocked if they don't get the 11-7 Big Ten record that would make them an absolute guarantee. Even 10-8 might do it with their strong out-of-conference schedule.

#23 Clemson 70, NC State 54
Friendly rims can go a long way, as Clemson found out with a surprising 10-for-25 performance from beyond the arc. As NC State falls further and further off the bubble, Clemson moves closer to wrapping up a bid. Last year's Clemson team felt a little bit like a car crash. The stellar start seemed a bit out of control, and as soon as they lost that first game it was like the floor dropped out. This year's team is much more under control, much more mature. They opened up 10-0, but they were able to move on from the Ole Miss loss without any big emotional after-effects. To make the Tournament out of the ACC, you don't need to beat UNC or Duke. You just have to take care of business, which is what the Tigers have done by beating Florida State and NC State at home in their last two games. The out-of-conference schedule was pretty weak, so they're going to have to earn their at-large bid with conference wins. But RPI numbers are always good in the ACC. Clemson's RPI is currently 28th, which puts them third highest in the ACC. Clemson fans lived through a nightmare last season, but they should be in for a much more pleasant March experience this season.

Boston College 76, #24 Miami (Fl) 66

The final score is deceptive as this game just wasn't that close. The dust is still settling from everyone jumping off the Canes bandwagon. Back in December I tried to put some needles in the Miami balloon here and here. This just isn't that good of a team, and the computer numbers are finally recognizing it. Miami kept beating up on a lot of halfway decent teams. They did a great job of not scheduling any elite teams (since they'd lose) or any really bad teams (which kill the RPI). So for a while there, this was the team with the #1 RPI in the country. But now, despite still have a record of 13-2, the RPI has plummeted out of the Top 40. I think this team will stick around as a bubble team, but they're going to need to fight hard to make the Tournament. With such an atrocious out-of-conference schedule, they lack any resume-building wins. The ACC schedule makers are giving the Canes lots of chances, with all of the top teams at home (UNC, Duke, Virginia, Clemson, BC, et cetera). They'll need one or two of those, because this team could easily go 22-8 and still miss the Tournament.

Mississippi State 69, Kentucky 64
The Bulldogs did the SEC a favor by hanging on to a win here. After Kentucky's atrocious losses in the out-of-conference, it would be pretty embarrassing if they started winning all of their games in conference. Now, Mississippi State's resume isn't all too strong yet. The losses to Miami of Ohio and South Alabama knocked them off a lot of radar screens. Well don't look now, but the Bulldogs are now leading the SEC West with a 3-0 record. I'll admit that I've missed the boat on this team as well. As I try to keep emphasizing, schedule-makers can have a big effect in conferences that aren't complete round-robins. Mississippi State, for example, should have received their schedule with gift wrapping on it. They only have to play Florida, Tennessee and Vandy the minimum of once each. I don't think these guys have the talent to run with a very impressive Ole Miss squad, but I see no reason why the Bulldogs can't finish second in the SEC West. I'd also like to give respect to Mississippi State's Justin Varnado, who put up a Stephane Lasme special with 10 blocks to go along with 10 points and 12 boards.

Texas Tech 68, #9 Texas A&M 53

Amazingly, the final score was deceptively close. Bobby Knight's boys led by more than 20 points for much of the second half. Watching a lot of this game, though, I was constantly surprised by the score. Texas Tech played well, but they didn't really look any better than A&M. The Aggies simply couldn't hit a shot for their life. They hit 34% from the field, and even bricked their way to 57% from the foul line for good measure. If you're an A&M fan you just write this game off and move on. They won't play like this often. More importantly, this game jumbles up the Big 12 even more. Texas, Kansas and Texas A&M are all pretty safe bets for the Tournament. But after that, I don't think anybody really knows where to put these teams. Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas Tech, Missouri, Kansas State... any of these teams could get in the Tournament or miss it altogether. It's going to come down to who can win the head-to-head match-ups, who can avoid slip-ups, and who can steal a game or two against the big boys (like Tech did in this one). Texas Tech is still a mediocre 9-6 with an RPI out near 60, so there's no way they'd make the Tournament if the season ended now. But this win puts them right back in the discussion. As an aside, did anyone else find it kind of silly that any discussion of Bob Knight's 900th win had to include the fact that Pat Summitt has more than 900 wins? She coached a different sport! It's comparing apples to oranges. Why not point out that he's nearly 3000 wins behind Connie Mack? The record was Dean Smith's and Knight broke it. And now he's keeping the record warm until Coach K comes through on his unstoppable march to 1000 wins. Pat Summitt's win total is irrelevant.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Oregon 71, #22 Stanford 66
Oregon definitely stole a win in this one. Overall, not a very impressive performance for the Ducks. They were out-rebounded fairly badly (36 to 26). They did a good job of controlling the ball, but couldn't force any turnovers. The fact that Tajuan Porter had his best game in a month had to be encouraging (he has the potential to be a future Pac-10 player if the year if he eschews the NBA for a year or two). But he's not there yet. In this one, the difference was Stanford's 3-for-19 shooting from behind the arc. Oregon's strength will continue to be in speed and hustle, but they need to find a way to deal with a powerful inside player. They had no match for Brook Lopez on the inside, who sprung for 26 and 6 (on only 16 shots). But the three-point shooting was the difference, and Oregon knocked Stanford out of the Top 25. The Ducks are moving closer to locking up a Tournament spot. They are 3-1 in the Pac-10 and 12-4 overall. The wins over Stanford, Cal and at Kansas State will remain solid results. And the losses at St. Mary's and Arizona State don't look nearly as bad as they did when they happened. The RPI is up to 25th, and I expect it to stay near there. With a lack of any "bad" losses left on the schedule (save Oregon State), it's hard to see these guys missing the Tournament even if they're only 10-8 in conference. If they get to 11-7, they're a lock.

#16 Pitt 69, #6 Georgetown 60
I really like the way that Pitt's senior leadership is stepping up to fill in for their injured talent. Keith Benjamin, specifically, is taking advantage of his first real chance to start. He tied for the lead among all players in this game, with 18 points. DeJuan Blair was probably the star in this one. His 15 points and 9 boards were nice, but his real accomplishment was holding Roy Hibbert to 12 points. He also energized the team (and the Zoo) every time he came down with a big rebound. This will will help a lot on Selection Sunday as Pitt hopes to get something like a two or a three seed, instead of something like a five or six. The loss isn't that bad for Georgetown either, as it's never embarrassing to lose at a team like Pitt. The Hoyas are still the favorites in the Big East. Although the quirky Big East schedule means that they don't get a rematch with Pitt. And that's too bad.

#3 Kansas 85, Oklahoma 55

What else is there to say about this Kansas team? Darrell Arthur, Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush all have the NBA scouts drooling. Darnell Jackson could find himself playing with the big boys next year as well. The announcers during this one mentioned that fifteen NBA scouts were in the crowd. They could have been exaggerating, but I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't. It's interesting how much the top three teams in the country have separated themselves from everybody else. At this point, is there even a five percent chance that either Kansas, UNC or Memphis is going to miss a #1 seed? Throw in the fact that UCLA has made some room between itself and #5 in the country after the win over Wazzu and you can practically pencil in the four #1 seeds at this point. Compare this to last season. At around noon on Selection Sunday, we still had nine teams thinking they had a shot at a #1 seed. In the end, I was one of the few brackets to get the four #1 seeds correct, but it took me about 2000 words to figure it all out. Kind of remarkable how much those four teams have separated themselves this season. As for Oklahoma, this is where the loss at home to Kansas State really hurts. It's not a "bad" loss by any means, but it's one that they probably counted on as a likely win. Now they're 0-2 in the Big 12 with games at Baylor, at Texas A&M, and at home vs. Texas among their next five. Those home games against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are practically must-wins at this point. I still think the Sooners are making the Tournament, but they need to start winning the games they're supposed to win. A real resume builder, like a win over Texas A&M or Texas, would go a long way toward an at-large bid.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Understanding the Big Ten Network Controversy

http://www.basketballforum.com/blog.php?b=131


Understanding the Big Ten Network Controversy

Posted Today at 12:36 PM by BasketballPredictions
I'm back with my first blog post of the new year. As you probably know, a common set of themes I've addressed have been misunderstood parts of the sports world. And perhaps no part of the sports world is more misunderstood than the business aspects, especially in college sports where we're often told "it's all about the kids". As for as business-related issues in college sports, nothing is more controversial than the Big Ten Network. Go to any Big Ten team's message board and you'll see dozens of threads where people viciously attack each other over these issues. You'll hear things like "If you care about the team just switch to satellite, it's better quality anyway" or "This is all just a failure of capitalism". In general, it seems like most people are just missing the fundamental issues. So let me try to get into this as well as I can in a single blog post:


So what is this Big Ten Network thing anyway?
Colleges and conferences have created their own tv stations before, but this is the first large scale attempt to go nationwide with a college conference-centered sports channel. Think NBA TV or NFL Network, but for the Big Ten. The station pledges to cover basically every single basketball and football game featuring a Big Ten team, other than those already on national tv. It also will have lesser sports, like soccer and baseball.


Sounds great - people in the midwest must be thrilled to have all of these games on tv... right?

Sort of. The fact is that college sports is very regionalized. Someone who lives in Minnesota is going to want to watch the Gophers. They'll care a bit about the rest of the Big Ten, and even less about the rest of the country. This was already reflected in television coverage. If you lived close to a Big Ten school, you already got basically every football and basketball game. Anytime the local school's game was on ESPN Full Court, for example, it would be showed on local cable. Of course, the Big Ten Network still provides a lot more games than people got before. If you live in Illinois, suddenly you have access to all of Michigan State's games and all of Ohio State's games. Clearly, all Big Ten basketball fans would be happier if this channel was on tv everywhere.


But this channel does give the Big Ten an advantage over the other conferences, right?

This is perhaps the most misunderstood fact. The idea that if the Big Ten Network just got on tv everywhere, the Big Ten would have a huge step-up over the other major conferences. The fact is that once the Big Ten Network succeeds, we'll probably have an SEC Network, an ACC Network, a Pac 10 Network (and so on) within 5 years. The other conferences are simply waiting to see how the Big Ten does.


So why aren't the cable companies putting the Big Ten Network on?
The price. The Big Ten Network originally asked for $1.10 per month per customer in Big Ten states, and $.10 per month per customer in the rest of the country. To put this in comparison, the average cable viewer pays around $2-$2.50 per month for the entire ESPN package (depending on which provider you have, this includes some combination of ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Classic, ESPN News and ESPNU). To realize how absurd this price is, think about my previous point about the other conferences wanting their own channel. Whatever deal the Big Ten Network gets will set a precedent that the other conferences will want matched. Imagine someone living in Florida who would have to pay $1.10 for the SEC, ACC & Big East Networks, as well 10 cents per month for the other three. They'd be paying $3.60 per month for college sports? Compared to $2.50 per month for everything ESPN? That's insanity.


Why don't you admit that a real issue is that the cable companies want to put the Big Ten Network on the sports tier. Why can't this be on basic cable when we get crap that nobody watches like the Hallmark Channel and TruTv on basic cable?
Again, this is about the price. The Hallmark Channel gets on basic cable, but they're not paying a cent. They're putting that channel on for free, and making their money merely from advertising. If the Big Ten Network was willing to be on basic cable for free, my guess is that the cable companies would give in.


But if the price is so bad, why is the Big Ten Network on satellite? Both DirecTV and Dish Network have it... so what's the deal?
A couple issues here. First, DirecTv is partially owned and controlled by News Corp. Those are the people that run Fox, the company that also owns 49% of the Big Ten Network. Obviously they were going to put the channel on, and they probably got a deal. And once DirecTv gets a channel, Dish Network has to match. In general, however, the satellite companies are always willing to overpay for sports channels. Despite what you may here from satellite tv fanatics, satellite tv is simply lower quality than cable. A lot of people don't have physical access to it (either because of a tree in the way, or because an apartment is on the wrong side of a building, or because the owner of your building prohibits dishes). Also, bad weather can knock it out. If all else is equal, probably nobody would choose satellite over cable. So, satellite generally tries to offer really cheap basic set-ups (say, 50 channels for $19.99 per month) to try to hook people. Also, they try to get all of the sports channels. They know that if a lot of sports channels are only on satellite that a lot of sports fans will overlook everything else and go with satellite. This is why things like the NFL Network, Big Ten Network, and some of those league packages are only available on satellite. The cable companies, on the other hand, already have a huge advantage on issues like convenience. So they're not going to overpay for a sports channel.


Why was the Big Ten Network dumb enough to demand $1+ per month per customer when the cable companies would never accept something like that?
They weren't dumb, they were playing the business game. First of all, tv revenues are up for the Big Ten teams. These teams are just like major corporations - it doesn't matter how many people have access to the product, only how much money they pay. Even if less people can watch the games, the Big Ten gets a larger amount of money per customer. So they actually make more money. Secondly, I think there is an issue of pride here. The Big Ten is under pressure from the other major conferences to hold out for a good deal. The SEC will be upset if the Big Ten puts their channel on for 10 cents per month, because then the SEC won't be able to extract anything more than that for themselves when they create their own channel.


Is this going to end soon?
Stories leak about once a month about how the Big Ten Network is "getting close" to a deal with one cable giant or another, but nothing comes to fruition. The fact is that major universities have long ago decided that the bottom line is the most important factor. If they're making more money, what do they care that a majority of local residents in Big Ten college towns have no access to most games outside of sports bars? Even worse, the state legislatures have become involved. And when has any government anywhere started caring more about the people than the money coming in? My guess is that the conference will wait another year or two, and then finally drastically reduce their demands, so that they can say that they were the ones who gave ground to make this happen. To try to look like the good guys. My guess is that the Big Ten can get on basic cable in the Big Ten states if they're willing to accept something like 15 or 20 cents per consumer per month.


So is this just a "failure of capitalism"?

The opposite, it's a failure of large government interests. The cable companies, in general, are a relic of the past. Think about how quickly telephone quality improved once the monopolies were broken up. Ideally, we could purchase all of our channels a la carte. But when you combine cable company monopolies with wealthy universities and government bureaucracy, you're in for a long and painful negotiation. It's depressing, yet predictable.


We can always hope that a new deal will be in place in time for next year's football games. But don't count on it.

W-9 BP65

As always, let's start the morning with the new BP65. I'll try to get to other games later in the day - although if this week ends up anything like last week, I'll spend the rest of the day in this post's comments section:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Duke

3. Marquette
3. Texas A&M
3. Texas
3. Washington State

4. Indiana
4. Pittsburgh
4. Stanford
4. Mississippi

5. Wisconsin
5. Oregon
5. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
5. Vanderbilt

6. Villanova
6. BUTLER (HORIZON)
6. Florida
6. Clemson

7. Arizona
7. BYU (MWC)
7. Syracuse
7. Ohio State

8. Louisville
8. California
8. West Virginia
8. UConn

9. Kansas State
9. Dayton
9. CREIGHTON (MVC)
9. Notre Dame

10. Oklahoma
10. Florida State
10. GONZAGA (WCC)
10. USC

11. Drake
11. Arkansas
11. Virginia
11. Miami (Fl)

12. Boston College
12. Arizona State
12. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

13. NEVADA (WAC)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. MARIST (MAAC)

14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. CSU NORTHRIDGE (BIG WEST)

15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. YALE (IVY)

16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Georgia Tech, NC State, Duquesne, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Providence, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, Baylor, Missouri, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, San Diego State, Washington, Alabama, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, St. Joseph's, Seton Hall, South Florida, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, VCU, Houston, Valparaiso, Kent State, Missouri State, Ohio, Indiana State, New Mexico, UNLV, Mississippi State, South Alabama

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to drastically improve their resume:
Charlotte, Temple, Cincinnati, Depaul, St. John's, Penn State, Iowa State, Nebraska, Delaware, James Madison, Tulane, UAB, UTEP, Wright State, Akron, Bradley, Missouri State, Wichita State, Utah, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, San Diego, Utah State

Saturday, January 12, 2008

Now Things Get Confusing

It's like Godfather III - just when you thought they were out... quite a few bubble teams pulled off big wins. Let's get to the most important games:

Oklahoma State 74, Texas Tech 55
With Texas, Kansas & Texas A&M all locks to make the Tournament, and Oklahoma in pretty good shape, there isn't a lot of space for new bubble teams in the Big 12. The fact is that the conference hasn't been all that great this season, and it's hard to see it getting six bids. This win clearly establishes OSU as higher in the Big 12 pecking order than Tech. Baylor is obviously in the mix, as is Missouri (see below). Don't get me wrong, Oklahoma State still has a ways to go. The RPI is still around 100, which is obviously unacceptable for a Tournament team. The LSU and Washington wins just don't look that special. I'm going to guess that 10-6 in conference probably won't be enough for the Cowboys. They probably need to get to 11-5 for an at-large bid. But 1-0 is a good start.

Missouri 97, #13 Texas 84
Speaking of Missouri, this win clearly puts them back in the thick of things. They are probably ahead of both Oklahoma State and Texas Tech after this one. The wins over Purdue and at Maryland are nothing to sniff out, but a win over Texas will go a long way on Selection Sunday. Also, the RPI is getting close to acceptable. With this win and the decent computer numbers, Missouri might be able to get in the Tournament at 10-6 out of the Big 12. As for Texas, they need to not get too down about this one. Missouri just played out of their minds. Teax was able to handle the press, so it's not like a loss here means that Texas will be unable to beat Kansas and their high tempo game later on. Mizzou simply shot 56% from the field and 46% from behind the arc. Sometimes that just happens. Missouri is a good team that relies heavily on energy, so they're tough to beat at home when they can feed off the crowd. The Longhorns are still competitors to win the conference.

Kentucky 79, Vanderbilt 73, 2OT

I hate to say I told you so, and it's not just because I talked about this as a possible upset earlier today. The fact is that there is randomness in sports - sometimes a ball just rolls in or just rolls out. Some things are out of your control. So the fact that Vandy had all of these close wins meant that they were due for some close losses. I got some grief on the Vanderbilt message boards for talking about this, because they're all convinced that Vanderbilt is just a "very clutch" team. I'm sorry, but in the end the numbers work themselves out. I've compared it to the Pythagorean Expectation for baseball. Back in the golden days for the Yankees they had the best closer and the clutchest players in the league. And even they would only finish about 5 games ahead of their Pythagorean Expectation. So every year during baseball you see a team that has a great record at the All-Star break despite a poor runs scored/runs allowed ratio. Those teams always go on long losing streaks in the second half of the year where they lose a bunch of close games. It's like clockwork. The "clutchness" of team (and I'll give you that Vanderbilt is clearly a clutch team this year) will help you pull out of more of these close games. But if you play enough close games, you're going to lose some. Sometimes the ball just isn't going to roll your way. Still, Vanderbilt remains a real threat to finish second in the SEC. Although Ole Miss's tough loss at Tennessee probably moves them ahead of Vanderbilt in the conference pecking order. And for Kentucky... they're still a long way from at-large consideration. This win just puts the RPI inside 200. But if this win can give them some confidence back, it could go a long way towards a moderately successful season. On a lighter note, how great was it that Gus Johnson was doing this game? Gotta love him.

Not Much In The First Two Hours

Florida seems to be taking care of business in Gainesville.

UNC looks amazing, as they tend to after poor performances. NC State, meanwhile, is playing themselves out of bubble contention. Didn't Joe Lunardi give these guys a two-seed in his first Bracketology? Their run in last year's ACC Tournament seems to have given too many people an over-inflated view of this team.

St. John's and Depaul - for those who don't have this game on tv, you're not missing much. I can't remember the last time I've seen so many missed open jumpers from inside ten or fifteen feet.

Xavier continues to hold serve in the A-10. I'm really looking forward to their matchup with Dayton on the 24th... and hoping that some tv station picks it up so I can watch it.

The two good games that just got started are both on CBS: Vandy/Kentucky and Texas Tech/OSU. No matter where you are in the country right now, CBS is probably your best bet for a good game. At 2pm eastern time we get UConn/Georgetown and other, regional action.

Saturday Discussion

I'm going to try to post a few times today, updating as the day goes along. I welcome everyone else to join me in the comments section for each post. A few things to note as this day gets underway:


ESPN is out with their first Bubble Watch of the season. Usually this is a good read, but this first installment for the year is a disappointment. Not much creativity as Andy Glockner just found the RPI rankings and went down in order. The only place he went out on a real limb was to project St. Mary's as a lock for the Tournament, which seems a bit preposterous to me. I've talked about this already here. As I've said, St. Mary's is a great home team, and they tend to play far below those levels on the road. They've only had to deal with four road games so far, and the results have been decent but not great (losses to SIU and Texas, and close wins over San Diego State and Fresno State). I think we need to see how that team performs on the road at San Diego and Santa Clara before we start throwing the Gaels in the Tournament.

Early games to look for include Florida needing a win over Auburn if they want to establish themselves as an elite SEC team. A loss in this one would throw them back into the bubble mix with teams like Georgia and Alabama. A lot of games with bubble implications in the Big 12, with Texas Tech facing Oklahoma State, and Missouri hoping to take out Texas at home. And don't overlook Vandy at Kentucky, a game that could potentially knock the undefeated ranks down to four. Kentucky is not as bad as their record, and they should be fired up to avoid more embarrassment at Rupp Arena. The idea that some people are treating Vanderbilt as a mortal lock at Rupp Arena is humorous, to say the least, based on the history of these two programs. Don't discount the pride of a wounded giant.


I'll be back soon...

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Rhode Island & Ole Miss Settle Some Issues

A lot of important basketball went down last night, although you might not have known it from the media coverage. Everything is all about the NFL playoffs now, and the most college basketball coverage that I saw centered on Psycho T dunking on Kenny George. Don't get me wrong, it looked really cool - Hansbrough looked about 5 feet tall next to the 7'6" George. But it's not like that game had any Tournament implications whatsoever. However, considering how much I've talked about anticipating the Rhode Island/Dayton game on this blog, I figured I had to talk about how it actually turned out:

#22 Dayton 92, #23 Rhode Island 83
I've spent a lot of time debating Rhode Island in the comments here and here. And I've said consistently that I'd move Rhode Island into the bracket if they won this game at Dayton, because that would put them firmly in the top two in the Atlantic Ten. I think the A-10 will only end up with two seeds, unless something really weird goes in the rest of the country. Now this game actually improved my view towards Rhode Island. They were on the road, and got down a few points early and just couldn't cut into the deficit. If they had played this game at home, they probably would have won it. Meanwhile, Dayton really played very well. They hit a remarkable 11-for-21 from behind the arc, a ratio that I doubt they'd replicate with unfamiliar rims. If the season ended now, I'm not quite sure if Rhode Island would get in. But in the end, I think they really need to finish ahead of Dayton or Xavier in the standings. Dayton, meanwhile, is in great shape. They can even lose their game at Rhode Island in February and still be on the right path to an at-large bid. With their out-of-conference resume, and the outstanding numbers (the RPI right now is 6th in the country - that's not a typo), a top-two finish in the Atlantic Ten should lock up a bid.

#9 Tennessee 85, #15 Mississippi 83

A great game, and a very impressive performance for the Rebs. I've been talking about Florida and Vandy being in a battle for the second best team in the SEC, but this game proves that this Mississippi team is for real. Ole Miss did a good job in this one of handling the Tennessee pressure (only 10 turnovers), and actually won the battle for the boards (43 to 36). Mississippi really struggled to hit their threes (8 for 25) and still had this game as basically a toss-up in the final minute. And this game was in Knoxville. Homecourt advantage, especially at a school ike Tennessee, is worth a good four or five points. So that means that Mississippi would have won this game on a neutral floor, the way that they played. Those who read this blog often know how much I talk about the way that people mis-rank teams. And I can assure you that this loss will cause Ole Miss to drop in the rankings, even though they should move up. If they were exactly equivalent to Tennessee, a Top Ten team, they'd have lost by more than 2 points here in Knoxville. Too bad rankings are done of the form "They lost, therefore they must drop in the polls" - an irrational system. Sagarin's rankings noticed, though, moving Ole Miss up to 11th in the country. I think I'm under-ranking this team as a #8 seed, especially as the chances rise that this ends up the second best team in the SEC.

Arizona State 64, Arizona 59, OT
Last week I mentioned how Arizona State was sneaking up on everybody, under the radar. Well no more. They're now 13-2, including 3-0 in the Pac-10. The RPI is up to 62nd, and their Sagarin rating is up to 41st. If the season ended now, they would be very, very borderline. But they're in a great position to make the Tournament. They don't have any big wins, and the schedule is weak, so they'll have to win a lot of conference games. But who's to say that they won't do that? I've long talked about how underrated Herb Sendek has been as a coach. And this is probably the most talented team he's ever had, at any school. It's got to be exciting in Tempe right now, as they're not used to elite basketball. Remember, this is a program that has been to the NCAA Tournament once in the last dozen years.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Join The Conversation

Just because there haven't been new posts doesn't mean that there haven't been things written and discussed here. In case you aren't aware, there's been a pretty active discussion going on in the most recent BP65s. One of the great things about having a predictive bracket instead of a "where are we now" bracket is that there is much more to debate. There are already 36 comments on the W-10 BP65, so feel free to join in. I welcome as many viewpoints as possible, as long as the dialogue stays positive and mature. No personal attacks against anybody, or I will delete your post. And it's nice if you can leave your name (as opposed to "anonymous") so that when everyone else responds to you, they know who they're talking to.



I'll only have light posting (if any) until Saturday afternoon. But I'm finally putting together my next piece for baskeballforum.com. It's going to be about the Big Ten Network. Understanding what each side's position is, the myths perpetrated by each side, why the cable companies will never give in, and why it might take a couple of years before the Big Ten cracks and gives in.

Saturday, January 05, 2008

W-10 BP65

Late night update because I won't have a lot of time Sunday morning to write this up. Only ten weeks until Selection Sunday:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Duke

3. Marquette
3. Texas A&M
3. Texas
3. Washington State

4. Indiana
4. Pittsburgh
4. Stanford
4. Villanova

5. Arizona
5. Wisconsin
5. Oregon
5. Vanderbilt

6. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
6. Florida
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Louisville

7. BUTLER (HORIZON)
7. Syracuse
7. Ohio State
7. Clemson

8. USC
8. Mississippi
8. California
8. West Virginia

9. Kansas State
9. Oklahoma
9. UConn
9. Dayton

10. Illinois
10. Florida State
10. GONZAGA (WCC)
10. CREIGHTON (MVC)

11. Notre Dame
11. Boston College
11. Arkansas
11. Virginia

12. Southern Illinois
12. Miami (Fl)
12. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

13. NEVADA (WAC)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. MARIST (MAAC)

14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)

15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. YALE (IVY)
15. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)

16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. LIU (NORTHEAST)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Georgia Tech, NC State, Duquesne, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Providence, Minnesota, Purdue, Baylor, Missouri, Drake, Illinois State, San Diego State, Washington, Alabama, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, St. Joseph's, Depaul, Seton Hall, South Florida, Iowa State, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, VCU, Houston, Valparaiso, Akron, Kent State, Missouri State, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, UNLV, Arizona State, Mississippi State, South Carolina

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to drastically improve their resume:
St. Louis, Temple, Cincinnati, Rutgers, St. John's, Penn State, James Madison, Tulane, UAB, UTEP, Wright State, Ohio, Bradley, Wichita State, Utah, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, South Alabama, San Diego, Boise State, Utah State

Saturday Afternoon Update

As usual, too many important games on Saturday's slate. So I'll give you my take on the afternoon games with Tournament implications:

Oregon 84, #21 Arizona 74
A very important match-up, with huge Pac-10 implications. UCLA and Washington State seem to be a step ahead of everybody else, but third place is up for grabs. These two teams are in the battle, as are California, USC and Stanford. Even Washington could be part of the conversation. So not only did Oregon win this one, but they won it at the McKale Center. And once again, Arizona shows us flashes of brilliance followed by long stretches of mediocrity. It seems like this team just zones out for long stretches of time. In this one, they allowed themselves to fall nineteen points behind before getting dragged back into by the crowd. To be fair, Jerryd Bayless was absent yet again. But it's got to be distressing to an Arizona fan to see that incredible crowd going wild while the players seem absent-minded. On the plus side, Chase Budinger finally showed real consistency. He is such a talented player that if he can keep his head in the game every night he will be an All-American. As for Oregon, it's the same old from Ernie Kent - Kamikaze Kids, Version 2.0. Today, it was Malik Hairston stepping up with 29 points. But the star changes every day for the Ducks. There is no one man that you can dedicate yourself to shutting down if you're coaching against Oregon. I was bashing Oregon earlier this season because they were way over-hyped and placed in the Top Ten in the polls. But now that they're back out of the Top 25, I think people are sleeping on these guys. People have no perspective anymore - people just jump on and off bandwagons after a game or two. They're still a good team. Not a Top Ten team, but certainly a threat to make a Sweet Sixteen run.

#17 Butler 73, Valparaiso 65
A tough loss for a Valpo team that was up by as much as nine points in this one. A win here would have put Valpo two games up over Butler in the Horizon, along with the well-being of knowing that they'd taken the game at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Even with the loss here, they're still tied with Butler, with the opportunity to get their lead back when these two teams meet again on February 5th. Valparaiso is now 9-4, with their four losses coming on the road to Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Butler. Pretty impressive. Even with the loss today, the RPI is still at 33. The strength of schedule will obviously start to drop, so the Crusaders need to keep winning to stay in the bubble discussion. They can probably lose one more game in conference (assuming it's not to a bottom feeder). Let's say they win 14 of their final 15 conference games and then lose in the Horizon Tournament final at Butler (remember, the regular season champion gets the Horizon final at home), that would make Valpo 25-6 with an RPI around 35. Hard to see that not getting into the Tournament as an at-large. As for Butler, what else is there to say? They're looking pretty safe for an at-large, even if Valpo edges them out in the conference tournament.

Arizona State 72, Oregon State 53
Don't look now, but Arizona State is 12-2. Sure, the schedule stinks, but it's still a great start for a team that has struggled to break .500 in recent years. And this win follows an even more impressive win over Oregon, which puts the Sun Devils at 2-0 in the Pac-10. I haven't actually seen this team play yet this season, but it seems clear that they're getting production from more than just superfrosh James Harden. I'll definitely make sure to catch these guys the next time they're on tv so I can actually analyze their bubble chances properly. No need to do that for Oregon State, a team that seems headed for another season at the bottom of the Pac-10. As I type this they have an RPI of 266, compared to the next worst team in the conference at 101 (Washington). Yikes.

#15 Vanderbilt 97, UMass 88
Another big deficit overcome for this year's cardiac kids, Vanderbilt. UMass was up by as much thirteen, as well as an eight point lead early in the second half. And all of this in Nashville. Still, Vanderbilt has shown quite a knack for winning these close ones. In the end, this stuff has to even out. It's like how you can bet on major league baseball by assuming that all teams will regress back to their Pythagorean record. You can't really do that for college basketball because the opponents vary so wildly in their ability, but the Sagarin PREDICTOR is usually a decent substitute. I do, however, think that Sagarin is underranking the Commodores at 54th. This team is probably a marginal top 25 team, in the 20-35 range. The undefeated record is nice, but that bubble should get burst next week when they head to Tennessee. I would probably also bet against them the next week when they head to Gainesville. But the SEC is weak this year, so Vanderbilt could come out of this as the second best team in the SEC. Hard to see the second best team in a BCS conference getting anything much worse than a five or six seed. For Umass, you have to feel like they missed a big opportunity today. The RPI is still an insanely good 13, but it just seems like they're getting overshadowed by the Atlantic Ten teams with more glamor wins, like Xavier and Dayton. The Minutemen get a shot to earn their way into everyone's bracket prediction when they head to Dayton on the 16th. The RPI will drop as they move into the conference schedule and the strength of schedule weakens, so they will need another resume-building win. Syracuse and Boston College are nice, but not enough in and of themselves.