Thursday, February 28, 2008

Letdown Games And More

#14 Vanderbilt 72, #1 Tennessee 69
I always talk about player psychology on this blog, and one of the most important types of games is the letdown game. And the classic set-up for a letdown game was what Tennessee went through Saturday night at Memphis. It was a game they'd been looking forward to for a month - they were playing for number one in the country, in their own state, with a frenetic crowd. Everybody went all out in that game, and I'm sure that many of the Tennessee players didn't have much left to give after the buzzer went off. Following that up with a key game at Vandy, against a hostile crowd, was just a perfect recipe for a letdown game. It was so obvious that even the normally-oblivious studio hosts on ESPN were predicting an upset before the game. Now, as I discussed here, Vandy is set up for their own letdown game. They head to a desperate Arkansas squad, enjoying the glow of their own epic win. I'd say that Arkansas has got to be favored for that game. So, while Vandy fans are penciling their team into the Final Four, I think people need to realize that the Commodores are vastly overrated. I don't think any Final Four team has ever entered the Tournament with a Sagarin PREDICTOR of 48th (where Vandy is right now). They're obviously on pace for a nice seed - something in the 4-to-6 range. But I have to warn you against buying into the Vandy hype all too much.

Missouri State 86, #20 Drake 83
Speaking of letdown games, Drake hit a speed bump after their huge BracketBusters win at Butler. In the end, this game actually doesn't mean all too much. Drake should easily take care of Wichita State in their finale, to wrap up the regular season at 25-4, and 15-3 in the Missouri Valley. Even if they somehow lose to Wichita State, they're still a lock for the Tournament. The only question is if they can nail a #4 seed, or if they slip to something like a 6 or 7 seed. The Valley as a whole has still got a decent shot of being a multi-bid conference, with Illinois State and SIU well in the bubble mix, and Creighton still alive as well. Assuming the top seeds all progress through the early rounds, a key could be the Missouri Valley Semifinals. If all goes according to seeding, we'd see Drake against Creighton, and Illinois State against SIU. And there's a good chance that those games will be must-wins for Creighton, Illinois State and SIU. Should be an interesting Arch Madness.

#12 Indiana 72, Ohio State 69
Another tough, heartbreaking loss for an Ohio State Buckeyes team still struggling to get off the bubble. Barring a total collapse, I still think that the Buckeyes will be a Tourney team - but they've got to earn their way in. The RPI has slipped to a very dangerous 51st, although the Sagarin is at a reasonable 36th. But the fact is that Ohio State has had a ton of chances to impress, and just haven't cashed in. They are now 1-9 against the RPI Top 50, with two more home games against RPI Top 50 teams (Michigan State and Purdue). I think that a key will be their other game, which happens to be their next game, on Saturday at Minnesota. A loss there would be devastating, and might actually knock them out of the bracket. If they can take care of business there, then it comes down to the aforementioned games against MSU and Purdue. A split there should probably be enough to get an at-large bid. A sweep and they will probably need a little run in the Big Ten Tournament to wrap up a slot in the Tournament. With all the talent on this Ohio State team, it's shocking that they're still on the bubble. But they're just so young that they don't have the experience necessary to close out close games against more veteran teams like Indiana and Wisconsin. If all of this talent sticks around, Thad Matta will have a heck of a team next year. If not, he might start regretting the recruiting of so many one-and-done players.

Florida 77, Georgia 64
A key "taking care of business" win for a Gators team still looking for a marquee win. They are now 21-7, including 8-5 in the SEC and a win over Vanderbilt. The Sagarin is 38th, although the RPI is in the 50s. If the season ended now, they'd probably be in the Tournament, but they've got a very tricky end to the season. They get Mississippi State at home, Tennessee at home, and then head to Rupp Arena. Mississippi State is a very key game, because Florida might end up fighting with the Bulldogs for an at-large spot. Nobody will criticize Florida for losing to Tennessee, although it's obviously a very winnable game in front of what should be a very loud O'Connell Center crowd. If they can't take out Tennessee, the game at Kentucky could be the key to locking up an at-large bid. Kentucky is obviously on a heck of a roll, and a win over them would be a nice closer for the Gators.

Kentucky 58, Mississippi 54

Speaking of Kentucky, how is this game for a Tale of Two Seasons? I bet you could have gotten about 100-to-1 odds a month ago that at the end of February, Kentucky would be ranked higher on the Bracket Matrix than Mississippi. Kentucky's overall RPI is still in the low-60s, but I think the Selection Committee is going to weight the late season wins over the early season losses. A lot of people have the attitude that the Tournament should invite the 34 best teams right now, not the 34 teams that were best in November. Still, the resume can't be that bad. We can overlook the early-season losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego, but you can't look past the 4-8 record against the RPI Top 100. They still need to finish strong. If they can't win at Tennesse, they probably need to win their final two games. If they lose their home finale to Florida, they will probably slip to 11-5 in the SEC, and there's a good chance that won't be enough. As for Ole Miss, they are now in very bad shape. This makes their 9th loss in the SEC, and they need to win their final three regular season games to even be in the discussion on Selection Sunday. It's hard to see a 7-9 SEC team making the Tournament, even with more than 20 wins. But a 6-10 SEC team? No chance.

Nebraska 63, Oklahoma 45

For those people who question - this is why I keep around teams with awful resumes in my teams "still alive, but basically need a miracle" category. Nebraska's season looked pretty bleak at 3-7 in the Big 12 with a triple-digit RPI. But three straight wins over Kansas State, Texas A&M and Oklahoma, along with a Sagarin Rating of 60th, means that Nebraska has popped into at-large consideration as February comes to a close. They're obviously real long shots still, but there is a scenario for them to sneak in. Of their three remaining games, they have two winnable games sandwiching a game at Texas. If they can pull the upset at Texas, they'll have a real shot at an at-large bid. If not... well, it's not like Cornhusker fans really expected much out of this season anyway. Oklahoma, of course, is much better positioned for an at-large bid. They are also at 6-7 in the Big 12, but the rest of the resume is much stronger. Even with this loss, they're inside the Top 40 in both the RPI and Sagarin. They're also a decent 8-9 against the RPI Top 100, and despite a mediocre 18-10 record they can balance that with a top ten schedule (which you probably could have guessed from the fact that 17 of their 28 games were against the RPI Top 100). The thing is, I don't think a 7-9 team in the Big 12 has ever gotten an at-large bid. So that means they need a minimum of two wins in their final three regular season games. All three games are winnable... and all three are losable. They need to win two to stay firmly in the at-large discussion. And unless they sweep all three, they'll need to make sure that they win at least one game in the Big 12 Tournament. In other words - they really could have used this one. Not a good loss at this point in the season.

W-2.5 BP65

I know, a few hours later than usual:

1. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
1. TENNESSEE (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Duke
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas

3. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
3. Stanford
3. WISCONSIN (BIG 10)
3. Louisville

4. UConn
4. DRAKE (MVC)
4. Michigan State
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)

5. Notre Dame
5. Purdue
5. Vanderbilt
5. Marquette

6. Washington State
6. Indiana
6. Clemson
6. BYU (MWC)

6. Kansas State
7. Arizona
7. Pittsburgh
7. Texas A&M

8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. USC
8. West Virginia
8. Miami (Fl)

9. Mississippi State
9. Saint Mary's
9. Oklahoma
9. Syracuse

10. Maryland
10. Saint Joseph's
10. UNLV
10. Wake Forest

11. Baylor
11. Arkansas
11. Ohio State
11. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

12. KENT STATE (MAC)
12. Villanova
12. Florida
12. Houston

13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. NEVADA (WAC)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)

15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)

16. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Massachusetts, UAB, Illinois State, New Mexico, Kentucky

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Virginia Tech, Dayton, Rhode Island, VCU, Creighton, Southern Illinois, Arizona State, Oregon, Mississippi, Western Kentucky

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Florida State, Temple, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Wright State, Ohio, San Diego State, California

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Charlotte, Duquesne, Minnesota, Missouri, Texas Tech, Bradley, Washington, San Diego, Boise State, Utah State

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Looking Back at Sunday & Monday

#23 Louisville 75, Pittsburgh 73
A tough loss for a Pitt team that is just starting to get comfortable, healthy and on a roll. This loss won't be too devastating, other than that they miss an opportunity to pick up a slightly higher seed. Even though they've fallen to 7-7 in the Big East, they are not really in much danger of missing the Tournament. The computer numbers are pretty nice and they're 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, including wins over Duke and Georgetown. In addition, they'll get some credit for doing all of this with a bunch of tough injuries. With a relatively easy remaining Big East schedule, they should have no problem getting to 9-9 overall. Hard to see them missing the Tournament if they hit that .500 mark. As for Louisville, they are in a great position right now. They are tied with Notre Dame and Georgetown atop the Big East, all with three losses. Louisville's next three games include a home game against Notre Dame (who are only 5-5 in road/neutral games this season), and a road game against a very mortal-looking Georgetown team. Louisville controls their own destiny in the Big East, and we'll just have to wait to see if they can earn that title.

#21 Notre Dame 94, Syracuse 87
Speaking of Notre Dame, they racked up their 36th consecutive home victory in this one. I'm still not entirely convinced that this is a truly elite team, because they just seem a bit too slow in the backcourt. Luke Harangody is a very good player, but Tournament play is about guard play, and I just don't see Kyle McAlarney as that kind of elite scorer/creator. Regardless, they are now in great position, tied atop the Big East. Like I said, they have to head to Louisville. But other than that, their other three remaining games are against Depaul, St. John's and South Florida. Doesn't get much easier in the Big East. At worst they're looking at something like a 24-8 overall record and an RPI in the high-20s. I doubt they'll slip lower than something like a 6 or 7 seed, and they still have a chance at something like a 3 seed if they can win the regular season or tournament title out of the Big East. As for Syracuse, they seem destined for yet another nail-biting Selection Sunday. They had a great chance to put themselves firmly into the Tournament in this one, but couldn't come up with the big road upset. Now they are 7-8 in the Big East, with three pretty tough games to go. They could go 8-10 overall and still make the Tournament, but only if they have a respectable showing in the Big East Tournament. A first round exit would mean a final record of 18-14, with seven losses in their final nine games. That will almost definitely not get a Tournament bid, even with the excellent strength of schedule and nice computer numbers. So if we look at their final three regular season games and their first round Big East Tourney game as their next four games, I think it's safe to say that they need to get at least two of those. They need to go on a little spurt to give the Selection Committee a reason to put them in.

#21 Marquette 85, Villanova 75

A gritty effort from a Marquette team that is really starting to find its stride. This is now five consecutive wins in the Big East, and eight of ten. At 20-6 and 11-5 in the Big East, they have now wrapped up a Tournament bid. The Big East title is too far out of reach, but a nice Big East Tournament run is not. Assuming they end up fifth in the Big East they will have a relatively easy first round opponent (probably Depaul or Seton Hall) that they should be able to beat. After that it will be a second round match-up against the #4 seed, which is most likely UConn. I think Marquette needs to finish strong and maybe get to something like the Big East Semifinals if they really want consideration for an elite seeding. Something like a #3 seed in the Tournament is not out of the question if the Golden Eagles keep playing like they have lately. As for Nova, this gets back to what I said here and here. They really needed to take care of business at home in this one. They have now slipped to 7-8 with a game at Louisville looming. If they drop that one, they absolutely need to take care of business against South Florida and Providence to get to 9-9. I would guess that a 9-9 finish and a first round victory in the Big East Tournament would probably be enough for an at-large bid, but not necessarily. They could really use that win over Louisville on Sunday.

#9 Texas 74, Kansas State 65
The newest glamor team in the national media is Texas. Listening to various analysts on tv, you'd think it was Texas that just became the #1 team in the country - not Tennessee. Yes, they've won eight straight, and this win was nice as was their three-point victory at home over Kansas. But other than that it's been six relatively mediocre opponents. And Texas still has some holes - they're not a perfect team. Certainly, they are now in the driver's seat for a #1 seed. But they've got to take the Big 12 Tournament. A loss to Kansas there would probably knock Texas back to a #2 seed, and even a #3 seed is possible if they drop two games the rest of the way. Kansas State, meanwhile, doesn't get hurt too much by this loss (other than the opportunity cost of a missed chance). The RPI has slipped out of the Top 40, but that's not all too important. At 8-5 in the Big 12 they head to Kansas next, but then finish up with two easy games. Figure they get to 10-6, to go with wins over Kansas and Texas A&M, and a 3-4 record against the RPI Top 50, and that's a pretty solid resume. They haven't locked up an at-large bid yet, but they'd clearly be in if the season ended now. If they can get that 10-6 finish, and then avoid a first round upset in the Big 12 Tournament, they should be pretty safe for an at-large bid.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Happy Anniversary

It's now been two very good years here at Basketball Predictions. After very little attention during the first six to nine months, this website is now getting a ton of hits. Feel free to read back to last year's anniversary post, here. In it, I talk about how I had about 17,780 hits in the first year. I set as a goal a doubling of that. I hoped to have 35,500 more by February 24th, 2008. Well as I type this we're at around 52,280 overall, or 34,500 for the year. That's pretty close to the goal. It works out to about 100 per day, although almost nobody visits this site between mid-April and mid-October. I guess I should set another goal for the next 12 months, so I'll set 50,000 new hits. That would be nice growth continuation.

Now, as for game updates, I'll do that later today or tomorrow. Obviously a lot went down last night, from Tennessee's big victory to Kent State throwing their name into the at-large possibility hat. I probably answered some of the larger questions with my BP65 which came out late last night - very late, thanks to the scheduling of the St. Mary's-Kent State game. Honestly, it was too bad that the Memphis/Tennessee game had to happen this weekend, because it drew all of the oxygen away from a very interesting BracketBusters weekend. The original point of BracketBusters was to give the mid-majors a weekend of their own, where they were the main attraction. A lot of great games (especially that Butler/Drake match-up) did not get nearly as much attention as they should have gotten.

Again, I hope to have some more game reviews soon. And there will be, as the past couple of weeks, a new BP65 after Wednesday night's games.

W-3 BP65

1. TENNESSEE (SEC)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Duke
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas

3. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
3. Stanford
3. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)
3. Wisconsin

4. DRAKE (MVC)
4. UConn
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Louisville

5. Notre Dame
5. Washington State
5. Purdue
5. Marquette

6. Vanderbilt
6. Clemson
6. Indiana
6. Kansas State

7. BYU (MWC)
7. Arizona
7. Pittsburgh
7. Texas A&M

8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. USC
8. West Virginia
8. Miami (Fl)

9. Mississippi State
9. Maryland
9. Syracuse
9. Saint Mary's

10. Arkansas
10. Rhode Island
10. Oklahoma
10. Wake Forest

11. Ohio State
11. Villanova
11. UNLV
11. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

12. KENT STATE (MAC)
12. Florida
12. Houston
12. Baylor

13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. NEVADA (WAC)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)

15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)

16. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Massachusetts, St. Joseph's, Illinois State, New Mexico, Arizona State, Kentucky, Mississippi

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
NC State, Virginia Tech, Dayton, VCU, UAB, Oregon, Western Kentucky

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Boston College, Florida State, Duquesne, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Wright State, Creighton, Southern Illinois, San Diego State, California

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Georgia Tech, Virginia, Charlotte, Temple, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, UTEP, Ohio, Bradley, Washington, San Diego, Boise State, Utah State

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Evening Look at BracketBusters

Hey, did you know that Memphis and Tennessee are playing later today?

What's ironic about the over-hyping of this game is that it actually doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. It should be a fun game because of the styles of play and because there are probably five or six future NBA players on the floor. But both of these teams can lose this game and still earn a #1 seed in the Tournament. The biggest issue for me is whether Tennessee can keep Memphis from getting that regular season undefeated record. Memphis fans should almost hope that they do, because we've seen in seasons past that an undefeated record is quite a burden. Teams are much more loose when they can snap the undefeated season in time for the post-season Tournament (just ask the 2004-05 Illinois team).

Anyway, let's get to games that have actually finished already:

#6 UCLA 75, Oregon 65
The Ducks led nearly this entire game before faltering down the stretch. The final score is deceptive, as this game was much closer than the ten point victory margin might suggest. Despite the hideous uniforms (I hope they're already in the trash), Oregon played very well. The problem is, they'd already dug themselves into a hole where this was nearly a must-win game. At this point the Ducks probably need to win their final three regular season games to still earn an at-large bid. The Ducks have slipped to 6-9 in the Pac-10, to go along with a 3-8 record against the RPI Top 50, and a 4-8 record on the road. They don't quite need a miracle, but they need a huge turnaround immediately.

Southern Illinois 74, Nevada 49

So where was this performance for the past month? SIU is clearly a very dangerous team, despite what people might think from looking at their overall record. Their overall team defense isn't where it was the past two years, but they still have some great individual defenders. And the offense is obviously in decent shape if they're putting up 74 points on a solid Nevada team. This win catapalts the RPI into the mid-50s, and SIU does have a few decent wins to brag about. Their downfall has actually been playing down to their competition, as they're a remarkable 7-6 against the RPI Top 100 and 9-6 against teams with an RPI of 101+. Can they still earn an at-large bid with all of their bad losses? It's doubtful, but possible. They absolutely need to win out the regular season and get to the Missouri Valley Tournament Finals. If they lose a close game to Drake, for example, the Salukis would have to merit consideration on Selection Sunday.

#18 Drake 71, #8 Butler 64
Drake possibly put on their most impressive performance of the year in this one - although I say that with the caveat that this is one of the rare times I've actually gotten to watch them play live. They looked cool, calm and collected, and they never panicked when Butler went on little runs. And they absolutely clamped down on the perimeter, holding a hot-shooting Butler team to 6-for-24 from behind the arc. Drake didn't shoot much better, percentage wise (5-for-17 for them), but they were smart enough to not take as many. It seemed like Butler settled for deep threes, while Drake was more inclined to push the ball inside. I will also add that this game was a display of the difference between playing an entire season in the Missouri Valley versus the Horizon League. The Horizon League is an above average league with some decent teams. But the Valley is just a brutal schedule, with good teams all over the place. There are no easy wins in the Valley (despite being ranked below the Atlantic Ten in virtually every computer ranking, there's no question that the bottom of the Valley is superior to the bottom of the A-10). Drake is simply a more battle-tested team, and that experience came through in terms of demeanor in this one. Of course, this game actually doesn't do much for the bracket. Drake is still looking like a 4 or 5 seed, and Butler is still looking like a 4-6 seed. The Butler players shouldn't get too down on themselves - this game was more about gaining the experience of playing elite teams than anything else.

LSU 69, Mississippi 49

LSU continues to play solid ball while playing spoiler in the SEC. This one ends up as an embarrassing loss for an Ole Miss squad that is in a total tailspin. They do, indeed, seem to be the '06-'07 Clemson of 2007-08. They are now 4-8 in the SEC, and the RPI has slipped to 50th. They have the wins over Vanderbilt and South Alabama. And I'm sure that the Selection Committee will remember how close the Rebels came to stealing a win in Knoxville. But if they can't win their final four regular season games they will end up 7-9 or worse in a fairly weak SEC. I just can't see a 7-9 SEC team making the Tournament. Heck, I have trouble seeing an 8-8 SEC team making the Tournament, although Mississippi would have a great shot if they could pull it off. Unfortunately, they are now 3-7 in their last ten games, so a four-game winning streak doesn't seem all too likely. Honestly, the Ole Miss players shouldn't even be thinking about the Tournament right now. They need to try to end the season on a high-note - maybe by making a little run in the SEC Tournament or the NIT. They have a very young nucleus, highlighted by their stellar guard duo of Chris Warren and Eniel Polynice. If they can keep everybody from going early to the NBA, this team could do special things in the not-so-distant future.

Look at First Two Sets Of Games

With the first two sets of games in the books, let's look at the biggest results of the day:

Villanova 67, #13 UConn 65
After opening up a nice early lead, Nova tried their best to blow this game. But in the end their speed was just a tiny bit too much for UConn's strength. Corey Stokes was the spark off the bench with 18 points in this one. Nova has now had five straight strong games which followed that five game losing streak which seemed to torpedo their at-large hopes. They have now won four of their last five, with the one loss being that injustice against Georgetown. They're now up to 7-7 in the Big East, with an RPI in the mid-50s. I'll refer back to what I said after their last game. I said that winning five of their next six would almost definitely put them in the Tournament. Well, that's one down. Now they need four of the next five. And you look at their schedule and that looks like a real possibility.

Miami (Fl) 78, Maryland 63
Miami seems to have really been energized by that Duke win. That's the thing about being in the ACC - anytime you can beat Duke or UNC it always feels like your season has taken a big turn for the better. The computer numbers have been nice all year, but this win is more important in that it brings the ACC record up to .500. And you look at their remaining schedule and it's really about as easy as it can get in the ACC. Three of their final four remaining games are against Virginia, BC and FSU. Hard to see them finishing worse than 8-8 now. Eight conference wins also means 20 overall wins. So the question might become: would you rather have an 8-8 ACC team or a 9-7 Atlantic Ten team. Yeah, me too. Miami is looking very good for a Tournament bid right now. Maryland is another team that has benefited by a win over one of the Big Two, but they have to be careful not to drop any more games like this one. They are now 7-6 with three very winnable games the rest of the way. If they can get to 9-7 they're pretty safe for a Tournament bid. They only have one bad loss (American University), and that is more than wiped out by the win at UNC. If they drop to 8-8 they might miss the Tournament, however. So they really need to take care of business by winning at least two of their final three.

Kentucky 63, Arkansas 58
Arkansas seemed to have the upper-hand with a few minutes to go, but just did not play with the same intensity as Kentucky in the game's key moments. Kentucky's defense was just fierce. You almost have to imagine who these guys are wearing the Kentucky uniforms, and what they did to the team that played "matador" defense against San Diego and Gardner Webb. If Davidson can take care of business in the SoCon Tournament, Kentucky becomes the most interesting bubble case. A month into the season they had an RPI of around 250th. And the computer numbers are still poor (even with this win, the RPI is still around 60th, and the Sagarin will be in the 60s as well). But 9-3 in the SEC, with a real chance to finish 12-4? You can't ignore that finish. At this point, I would say that Kentucky's future is beginning to clear up a little bit. If they finish 10-6 they'll get some token bubble discussion, but there's almost no way they'll get in the Tournament. At 12-4 they'll be a near lock for the Tournament. If they finish 11-5... I'll have to get back to you. It depends what happens with other bubble teams. As for Arkansas, this loss drops them to 7-5 in the SEC. I think they'll actually miss the Tournament if they slip to 8-8, so they need to make sure they get at least two of their final four regular season games. That makes their Wednesday game at Alabama a near necessity. With games against Vandy and at Ole Miss to follow, the Razorbacks have absolutely got to take care of business against a bottom feeder of the SEC.

Virginia Tech 92, Georgia Tech 84
A.D. Vassallo's 27 points powered the Hokies in this one, making it two straight wins now to keep their at-large hopes breathing. The win pushes Virginia Tech up to a respectable 7-6 in the ACC, and pushes the RPI up to around 60th. Their three remaining games are not all that impossible, although it's been tough to beat Clemson on the road this season. The fact is that Virginia Tech needs to win two of their remaining three to remain in the bubble conversation heading into the ACC Tournament. Honestly, they need all three if they're going to have a good shot. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, is essentially done. They are now 4-7 in the ACC and 11-14 overall. The computer numbers remain great (when compared to their overall record), but they need to win their final five regular season games to even be in the conversation. So I guess that makes Wednesday's match-up at Duke a must-win. I don't like their odds.

Kelvin Sampson + Game Reviews

I'll be with you most of the day today, and I'll try to have a few updates. The biggest story of the past 24 hours, of course, was the resignation of Kelvin Sampson. I had said that the best case scenario as far as Indiana going far in the Tournament this season was to announce that Sampson was stepping down at the end of the season. The players have clearly rallied behind their embattled coach, and have been playing inspired ball since this scandal broke. Of course, as I noted, it might have been impossible to keep Sampson on that long. And if they had to get rid of him, it was ideal to do it as soon as possible. I had heard earlier this week that the most likely scenario was a ten-day suspension while the team reviewed this further, and that would have been a debacle. You can't have this hanging over the team, undermining the authority of the new boss, Dan Dakich. Now Dakich has a couple of weeks to get his team together before the Tournament. The question will be what happens to team chemistry. As I noted in the linked post above, this Indiana team is really in "one last run" mode. Their two big stars are playing their last season of college ball. It can be very hard for players to suddenly accept a new coach as they're heading into the homestretch. Dakich will have to walk a tight-rope, trying to get his kids to buy into a new scheme and leader, while still trying to rally them around the thought of winning for their former coach. There's no way to know how this is going to play out until we see the team play a game or two. There just isn't.

Now, a quick look at the biggest games played in the past two days:

UMass 98, Rhode Island 91
A very impressive road victory for a Massachusetts team that had been in a bit of a slump. I really like Chris Low's ability to get to the basket, and he should be a real star in the A-10 during his next and final season. The win helps keep UMass on the at-large border, as a loss would have dropped them to 5-7. They are now 6-6 with three very easy games in their final four. Even if they fall to Richmond, they'll be 9-7 overall. With the way that teams like Baylor, Arizona State and half the ACC have been falling - is it possible that a 9-7 UMass team could get a third Tournament bid for the Atlantic Ten? Absolutely. They'll just need to perform well in the A-10 Tournament while hoping to get some help in other conferences. As for that second Tournament bid, Rhode Island has by no means wrapped it up. After avoiding the upset bug that had hit Dayton and UMass, Rhode Island has now fallen into a slump at the worst time. Don't look now, but they've lost four out of five and are now 6-6. Worst of all, they have four lose-able games remaining. Not only is it extremely doubtful that they'll win all four, but there's a real possibility for a split. Hey, when you're 1-4 in your last five conference games, you can't expect too much out of your next four. As with all Atlantic Ten teams, the RPI is inflated for both of these teams. UMass is 31st and Rhode Island is 43rd. Meanwhile, the Sagarin Ratings have them 57th and 42nd, respectively. Pomeroy has them 76th and 67th, respectively. It will all come down to how these teams close. Both can wrap up a Tournament bid by winning out in the regular season. But both teams can easily play their way into the NIT.

La Salle 81, Dayton 78, OT
Sticking with the other big Atlantic Ten game, what a sad ending to this Dayton season. They are just finding ways to lose games, including missing the front-end of a 1-and-1 late in the second half of this one after LaSalle had to intentionally foul. In a testament to how many people are blinded by the RPI, some of the brackets that came out yesterday still had Dayton in the bracket. Thankfully, most bracketologists have finally figured out what I've been saying all along - RPI just isn't that important. If you can't win your conference games, you won't get a Tournament bid. Teams with 8-8, 9-9 (and even occasionally 7-9 and 8-10) records can get an at-large bid out of the biggest conferences. I can see .500 teams escaping the ACC, Big East and Pac-10 this season. But there won't be a .500 team getting out of the Big Ten, so there definitely won't be a .500 team getting out of the Atlantic Ten. Dayton's RPI is still 33rd (hence fooling some bracketologists), but they are now 5-7 in the A-10. And they end up with four tough games, including their next one at home against Xavier. Dayton has slipped to 68th in the Sagarin Ratings, and has absolutely got to beat Xavier if they want to even stay in the bubble picture. The odds of an 8-8 team escaping the A-10 are a million-to-one.

South Alabama 69, Western Kentucky 64

A game that Sun Belt fans have been looking forward to for about six weeks. Heck, I've been looking forward to this game for a couple of weeks. Of course, the Sun Belt gets no attention the national media, so I didn't even get to see highlights of this one on ESPN. Thankfully I have a sports package on my tv that had this game, and I was able to watch the entire second half live. I was very impressed at how the USA guards, especially Demetric Bennett, were able to blow by the WKU perimeter defenders and get to the basket. Western Kentucky was bigger inside, but they lost this one based on speed. And this all gets back to my conference preview, from more than ten months ago. I acknowledged that WKU would remain the best on the inside while USA would remain the best on the outside, but I predicted that WKU's improved perimeter play would be good enough to "run with" USA's guards. I said that they would negate USA's perimeter advantage enough for WKU's vast superiority on the inside to win the day. It turns out the WKU's guards aren't good enough to hang with USA's guards. And college basketball, in the modern era, has consistently been dominated by guard play. South Alabama's guards are better, and that's why they have earned the top spot in the Sun Belt. The real question at this point is whether the losses to North Texas and Middle Tennessee State will sink their at-large chances if Western Kentucky steals the automatic bid. On one hand you have the RPI of 27th. On the other you have a Sagarin of 46th. If South Alabama wins out before dropping the Sun Belt Tournament Finals to WKU, it's going to be very tough to keep them out. It's going to come down to what happens in other conferences. They'll have to be rooting for an upset-free Championship Week. The Sun Belt Tournament starts two weeks from today, so we'll revisit this issue if USA can't lock up the title.

USC 81, Oregon 75
OJ Mayo looked great in this one, following up a fairly mediocre stretch of basketball. After so much hype in the pre-season, Mayo's season has actually not been all that newsworthy. He's been overshadowed by some of the other freshmen. But he showed up at the right time, as USC has by no means wrapped up an at-large bid. This win keeps them from dropping below .500 in the Pac-10, and they now sit 7-6 overall with the embarrassing Oregon State coming to town next. They have a Sagarin ranking of 25th, and I think they just have to take care of business the rest of the way. As long as they can avoid any upsets the rest of the way, it's hard to see them getting left out of the Tournament. That's not true, however, of Oregon. This loss drops the Ducks to 6-8 just in time for a game at Pauley Pavilion. A loss there and they're going to need a miracle just to get back to 9-9 in the Pac-10. I think they're really playing themselves out of the Tournament at this point. Of course, a win over UCLA today and you can forget everything I just said. A 9-9 Pac-10 record and a first-round win in the Pac-10 Tournament will be enough to get Oregon 20 wins and a hard look on Selection Sunday. But if they're going to get there, today's game at UCLA is practically a must-win. And anytime you've got a "must-win" at the sixth-ranked team in the nation, you're in a tough spot.

Davidson 60, Winthrop 47
A good game, although somewhat unexpected in the way it played out. Not the choice of victor, of course. The way Davidson has been playing lately (especially Stephen Curry), they've been rolling through everybody. What was surprising was how tight the defense was, and how low the scoring became. Both of these teams rely on the three-pointer, and there were plenty of those in this one. But interestingly enough, each of these teams gave the formula for stopping the other in the NCAA Tournament. The two teams combined for 16-for-49 shooting from behind the arc, and neither of these teams are going to win a game against a BCS Conference power in March with that kind of outside shooting. Winthrop, of course, was playing for pride only. They entered this one with a Sagarin rating outside the Top 100, so any hopes of an at-large bid were long-ago dashed. But Davidson would be a really interesting at-large case if they get taken out in the SoCon Tournament Finals. The argument against an at-large bid would be obvious - they went 2-6 in the out-of-conference, and only 1-4 against the RPI Top 100 (and even that's deceptive, as their one win was at home over 95th ranked Georgia Southern). Yes, they put together a killer out-of-conference schedule, but they didn't win any of them. Of course, the counter is that they were in all of those games. They lost to UNC, Duke, NC State and UCLA by an average of under six points per game. They had the one slip-up very early on to Western Michigan, and a not-very-embarrassing loss to Charlotte. Other than that, the Wildcats have been absolutely perfect. Seventeen straight wins is impressive against any competition. The RPI is still weak, in the mid-40s, but the Sagarin is up to 32nd. If they win out, but fall in the Southern Finals, I don't think that's going to move much. It will still be in the 30s. They'll have broken a win streak of more than 20 games. The Selection Committee will probably want to reward them for playing such a tough out-of-conference slate. I think they'll get in. Although it will obviously depend on what happens in the other conference tournaments. It would certainly be the most interesting case on Selection Sunday. Suffice to say, I think I can speak for all bracketologists when I say that we're all rooting for Davidson to win the SoCon Tournament for the sake of minimizing out stress.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

W-3.5 BP65

1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. DUKE (ACC)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. North Carolina
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas

3. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)
3. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
3. UConn
3. Wisconsin

4. Stanford
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Louisville
4. DRAKE (MVC)

5. Notre Dame
5. Washington State
5. Purdue
5. Clemson

6. Marquette
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Kansas State
6. Indiana

7. Texas A&M
7. Pittsburgh
7. Vanderbilt
7. Arizona

8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. USC
8. West Virginia
8. Arkansas

9. Maryland
9. Saint Mary's
9. Rhode Island
9. Oklahoma

10. Wake Forest
10. Mississippi State
10. Syracuse
10. Miami (Fl)

11. Ohio State
11. Mississippi
11. UNLV
11. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

12. Florida
12. KENT STATE (MAC)
12. Houston
12. Oregon

13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. NEVADA (WAC)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)

15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)

16. PORTLAND (BIG SKY)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Dayton, St. Joseph's, Villanova, Baylor, Illinois State, New Mexico, Arizona State, South Alabama

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, NC State, Massachusetts, VCU, UAB, California, Kentucky

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Florida State, Duquesne, Temple, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Wright State, Ohio, Creighton, Southern Illinois, San Diego State, Utah State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Virginia, Charlotte, St. Louis, Providence, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, UTEP, Akron, Bradley, Utah, Washington, South Carolina, San Diego, Boise State

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Wednesday Night Update

Remember, a new BP65 comes out after all of tonight's games are complete. Before then, a look at some of the most important results from last night and tonight:

#14 Indiana 77, #15 Purdue 68
Indiana is certainly playing inspired ball for their embattled coach. Honestly, it shouldn't be much of a surprise. Kelvin Sampson is a coach who really connects with his players, which is why he is such a good recruiter. And this Indiana team really has a "let's make one run" sense about it. Eric Gordon will be in the NBA next year. DJ White and Lance Stemler will graduate. Indiana really needs to hang onto this momentum to make a frenetic final run. The conventional wisdom is that Sampson will be suspended by the school sometime before this week is out, and that he will probably be asked to step down. If the Hoosiers can get away with it, however, they should try to hang onto Sampson for the rest of the season. They should make an announcement that Sampson will resign at the end of the season, when a full search can be done for a new coach. The Hoosiers can then rally around one last run for Coach Sampson. Gordon and the seniors can try to go out on a high. A motivated team like that could easily make a run deep into the Tournament. If Sampson is removed in the next few days, however, it's going to be hard to guess what will happen. We'll have to see if the interim coach can find a way to harness the emotions that the team will be feeling.

Oklahoma 92, Baylor 91, OT
A huge win for a Sooners team that is looking better and better for the Tournament by the week. Blake Griffin is an unbelievably talented freshman who continues to live off the national radar for no good reason. It's probably some combination of the fact that he wasn't as highly touted in the preseason as some of the other to freshman, along with the fact that he doens't play for a glamor team. Regardless, his 29 points and 15 boards led the way in this one. This win puts the Sooners at 6-5 in the Big 12, and in good position to finish at least 9-7. There's a good chance that 9-7 will be enough, with all of the chaos on the bubble. The RPI is safely inside the Top 30, and they will benefit from their tough schedule. This win makes them 8-7 against the RPI Top 100, to go along with a 6-5 record in road/neutral games. Neither of those stats blow you away, but they're definitely solid. If the season ended now they'd be in the Tournament for sure. They just have to take care of business the rest of the way. Baylor, meanwhile, is really digging themselves into a hole. At 5-6 they are probably going to need to win four of their final five games in order to steal an at-large bid. They lack a lot of big wins, and the computer numbers have become mediocre. Baylor has had a great season, and Scott Drew has clearly helped the program turn a page in its history. This program has good days ahead of it, but I think they're probably going to have to wait another year to make the Tournament.

UAB 101, Houston 99
The most important game tonight that you didn't hear about. A game with massive implications not only for these two teams but for the entire Conference USA. This result actually hurts the conference's chances at a second team, as they'd be better off if a second place team could establish itself clearly. With this win, UAB nearly pulls even with Houston in the overall resume, and it's hard to see the conference getting three teams. Both teams are now 8-3 in the conference. And this loss will drop Houston's RPI out of the Top 50 (UAB's will move up somewhere into the high-60s). UAB is still a fairly long-shot to get into the Tournament, even with this win. They had a chance against Memphis this past week, and didn't pull it out. Houston probably needs to win their final five regular season games, which is quite doable. Their toughest match-up is the finale at UTEP. If they drop that game, they will really need to get into the Conference USA Tournament Final. A loss there to Memphis would make them 25-8 overall, 12-4 in the conference, and with an RPI probably somewhere in the low-40s. Does that get in? I say yes. There is more parity this year than in previous years, so the last few teams to get into the Tournament are going to have a lot of holes in their resume. The fact is that Houston is 19-0 against teams with an RPI worse than 70, and that's a stat which will look really good on Selection Sunday. I still think this is a Tournament team.

Villanova 78, West Virginia 56

A big victory here means that Villanova can stay in the bubble picture for at least a little while longer. Maybe West Virginia's players were out late last night, because they were a sluggish 2-for-20 from behind the arc in this one. If they shot even a mildly average level from deep, they would have made this a game. But their loss is Nova's gain, and the Wildcats now enter the most important stretch of their season. Their next two games are at home against UConn and Marquette. At 6-7 in the Big East, a home sweep would put them above .500 and in good position to finish 10-8 in the Big East. A split and Villanova's at-large chances get a lot longer. A loss in both of those games and they can just forget the Tournament. As for West Virginia, I think they're still in pretty good shape to be the seventh team out of the Big East. This loss drops them to 7-6 in conference play, but they finish with a pretty easy schedule. Unless they really fall on their face, they should get to safety at 10-8. If they can do that they should be able to lock up an at-large bid with a win in their first Big East Tournament game.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Sunday & Monday Results

A quick look at the most important results from the past two days. The regular season is actually starting to wind down in many of the mid-major conferences, and conference tournaments are just around the corner. I've said it before and I'll say it again - I think Conference Championship Week is the most exciting sports week of the year. I enjoy it more than the NCAA Tournament itself. For one thing, I enjoy being able to flip back and forth between all sorts of different games. But more importantly, the games are just higher quality. The games are played between rivals who know each other well. UNC/Duke is always going to be higher quality than UNC/Kansas because the two teams know each other. You also get to experience home crowds and student sections (not in all conferences, of course) that can't be matched by any neutral court experience. But that's still a while off. For now, getting down to business:

Michigan 80, Ohio State 70
The top five teams in the Big Ten had done a great job of beating up on the lower-tier teams in the conference. I suppose an eventual slip-up was inevitable. This game was all about the young guys. Kosta Koufos continues to be a dynamic scorer. I've also become more and more impressed with Evan Turner - he's not yet All-Big Ten caliber, but he shows a lot of potential for next season. But the real star here was Manny Harris. If he returns next season he'll be a preseason All-Big Ten player for sure. He led the way for both teams with 27 points in this one. Like I said, it was inevitable for one of the top five Big Ten teams to drop a game to a lesser opponent. But of all of the top five teams, Ohio State is the one that can least afford a speed bump. Their RPI is now way into the danger territory, at 45th overall. The Sagarin rating of 35th (and Pomeroy of 30th) are both better, but are also in the danger zone. The 8-5 Big Ten record, and 17-9 overall record are decent. But when you look at their remaining schedule, it is high-risk, high-reward. They get Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan State at home, and Indiana and Minnesota on the road. The good thing is that all five of those games would qualify as "quality" wins. The bad thing is that they could easily lose all five. I'd say that Ohio State is pretty safe for the Tournament if they get to 11-7. What's more likely, however, is that they'll finish 10-8. If that happens then they will absolutely have to win their first Big Ten Tournament game. A loss would drop them to 19-12 overall, and 5-7 in their final twelve games. With the way the other bubble teams have been falling on their face, Ohio State could still sneak in with that resume. But it would be pretty doubtful. So I think it's safe to say that Ohio State can control its own destiny if it can win three of its next six games (the final five regular season games, and the Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals). A 3-3 record would make them a near-lock, and it would be hard to see them missing out without a totally disastrous turn of events in other conference tournaments.

Wake Forest 86, #2 Duke 73
I warned you. Duke is just too reliant on the three-pointer to win every single game. The thing is that Duke has a slew of outstanding outside shooters, so it takes a lot for all of them to get cold. They are very comfortable at home, so don't expect them to lose another home game (with the possible exeption of UNC looking for revenge). But when they're on the road or a neutral court, with an unfriendly crowd, it's not unthinkable for Duke to go cold. They were only 8-for-28 in this one (the fact that they continued to take 28 three-pointers in a game where they clearly weren't falling is a testament to how reliant the Blue Devils are on the shot). When the outside shots weren't falling, Duke suddenly became exposed. Wake Forest was more athletic, and far bigger on the inside. Wake out-rebounded Duke by eight, and forced 21 turnovers. We all know that Duke will still earn the #1 seed if they can wrap up the ACC regular season and tournament titles. The real question is what this win does for Wake Forest. I'd say that this win clearly puts Wake in the top six in the ACC pecking order, possibly even fifth. Being above .500 in the ACC is great, and this win will be a huge thing to brag about on Selection Sunday. A real worry has to be that the overall resume just is pretty mediocre. None of the computer rankings (including the RPI) have Wake inside the Top 50. You can still get in with numbers in the 50s, but only with a good record out of an elite conference. I'd say that Wake absolutely has to make it to 9-7 to even get serious consideration for an at-large bid. So what are the chances? Well the odds of following up a win over Duke with a win at UNC are slim to none. The games at home against Maryland and NC State are wins that they will need to have. If they can take those two then it's all about the road games at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. They need one of those two. A 9-7 record, plus a win in their first ACC Tournament game should really do it. A big part will be seeing how the computer numbers move up as Wake's weak strength of schedule improves.

#20 Saint Mary's 100, Pepperdine 64
Saint Mary's has been a strong team at home for several years. But the difference this season is the way they've taken care of their road games, like this one. Diamon Simpson is quickly becoming a household name, and the way he draws defenses allows things to get opened up for their sterling perimeter players. They're not a truly elite squad, of course. Don't pencil them into the Sweet Sixteen or anything like that. But they are looking incredibly safe for an at-large bid right now. The RPI of 26th, Sagarin of 22nd and Pomeroy of 32nd are all nice. And at 22-3 with a 7-2 record against the RPI Top 100, they'd be a lock for the Tournament if the season ended now. I think they'll lose their road game at Gonzaga, but otherwise only have two relatively easy games to go. Unless they lose all three of these games, it's hard to see them missing the Tournament. Once they get to 25 wins (they have 22 at the moment) it will be a total lock.

Sunday, February 17, 2008

W-4 BP65

I know, not a lot of updates today. I'll try to cover some more of Saturday's games sometime on Sunday. For now, the new BP65. Remember, the next one of these will be out after Wednesday night's games:

1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. North Carolina
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)

3. Texas
3. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
3. UConn
3. Wisconsin

4. Stanford
4. DRAKE (MVC)
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Louisville

5. Purdue
5. Notre Dame
5. Washington State
5. Clemson

6. Marquette
6. Kansas State
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Texas A&M

7. Indiana
7. Pittsburgh
7. Arizona
7. Vanderbilt

8. USC
8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. West Virginia
8. Maryland

9. Rhode Island
9. Saint Mary's
9. Arkansas
9. Ohio State

10. Oklahoma
10. Mississippi State
10. Syracuse
10. Florida

11. Baylor
11. Illinois State
11. Miami (Fl)
11. UNLV

12. KENT STATE (MAC)
12. Houston
12. Oregon
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. NEVADA (WAC)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. CSU FULLERTON (BIG WEST)

15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)

16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
NC State, Wake Forest, Dayton, St. Joseph's, Arizona State, Mississippi, South Alabama

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Massachusetts, Villanova, VCU, New Mexico, California, Kentucky

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Florida State, Charlotte, Duquesne, Temple, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Missouri, Texas Tech, UAB, Wright State, Ohio, Creighton, Southern Illinois, San Diego State, Utah State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Virginia, St. Louis, Providence, Minnesota, Nebraska, UTEP, Akron, Bradley, Utah, Washington, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, San Diego, Boise State

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Saturday Afternoon Update

Syracuse 77, #8 Georgetown 70
Last week we had to wait until about 10pm to get our first Top 10 upset. This week, we had one in the first set of games. It looks like that South Florida loss was just a look-ahead game, as the Orangemen did a great job of out-working the Hoyas in this one. They won the rebounding battle 32 to 23, and made more free throws (23) than Georgetown even attempted (17). You can't stop Roy Hibbert, but Syracuse took the most effective strategy - get him in foul trouble. This win might have saved Syracuse's season, as they follow this one up with road games at Louisville and Notre Dame. A loss in this one could have meant a 6-9 record after that road trip. The tough schedule will still make it a tough finish (although it will help the RPI), but that 9-9 Big East record is looking more and more likely. I think that a 9-9 record will be enough, assuming Syracuse doesn't stink it up in the first round of the Big East Tournament.

Kentucky 67, LSU 63
Well it's not facetious anymore - Kentucky has now won six of seven to get to 7-3 in the SEC. The RPI is still 74th (as I type this), so they'd still have to be out of the Tournament if the season ended now. I talked about this a couple weeks ago as a pure hypothetical. But Kentucky has really just been taking care of business, while so many other bubble teams have been faltering. You have to figure that the game at Tennessee will probably be a loss, but every other game is winnable. So not only is 11-5 still a real possibility, but so is 12-4. At 11-5 they'd be right on the fat part of the bubble, and I'd have to evaluate how other bubble teams have done in comparison. At 12-4, though, it would be pretty hard to keep the Wildcats out. Especially when you consider how well they will have finished over their final twelve games.

Bradley 87, Creighton 59
I don't really know what's been going on with Creighton. They have a lot of talent, but it's just young and inexperienced. P'allen Stinnett, especially, will be a real Missouri Valley star someday. Losing at Bradley isn't embarrassing - but being down by 30 points is. And it follows up a disappointing loss to bottom-feeder Evansville. The RPI has spiraled out of the Top 60, and they don't have much to brag about right now. The 16-8 record is nice, but the 1-4 record against the RPI Top 50 is not. The fact is that Creighton needs to go on a serious run right now if they want an at-large bid. I'd say that their final three regular season games are absolute must wins - especially the match-up at Illinois State. A 10-8 record out of the Missouri Valley simply won't cut it this year.

Kent State 72, Ohio 62
Kent State firms up their lead in the MAC with this important win. They are now an impressive 21-5, including 5-3 against the RPI Top 100. Speaking of the RPI, Kent State is up to 50th right now. The Sagarin Ratings (62nd overall, PREDICTOR of 88th) and Pomeroy Ratings (85th) are not quite as kind. But the fact is that the MAC still has a chance at getting two teams in the Tournament. However, Kent State is their only realistic shot at an at-large, and the Golden Flashes need to win everything but the MAC Tourney final. If they win all the way to that final and then lose in a close one, they could still sneak in. Again, it will depend on what the other bubble squads do.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Can We Shrink The Bracket?

There are often calls to increase the size of the NCAA Tournament. Maybe to 96, maybe even to 128. But I'll tell you what - at this point I think we're all struggling to find even 65 teams worthy of this year's Tournament. It seems like as soon as any bubble team gets hot and wins a couple, they quickly lose a couple and fall back out of Tournament consideration. It's why I moved Houston into the BP65 this week. Sure they don't have any huge wins, and the computer numbers are just decent. But they win when they're supposed to win, and they've racked up an 18-5 record, including 7-2 in the Conference USA. In a year of parity (or mediocrity, depending on whether you're an optimist or a pessimist), that looks pretty good. Onto some more bubble teams that had bad days:

Boston College 82, NC State 65
A nice win for Boston College, although their at-large chances are still pretty long. They are still 4-6 in the ACC, and the RPI and Sagarin numbers are nowhere near where an at-large team needs them. And I must say, the crowd was really rather awful. BC plays in a small gym and there were still tons of empty seats right near the court, and you could hear a pin drop during much of the action. I know that Boston is a pro sports town, but you'd think somebody would care about a program that has been consistently strong for so many straight seasons. As for NC State, this obviously wasn't a game that they could expect to walk in and take without a fight. But they could certainly have used the win. This loss drops them further into the ACC scrum, now at 4-6 overall in conference. Saturday's game against Clemson now becomes an absolute must-win. A loss there would mean that they'd need a win over North Carolina to avoid a 4-8 conference record. The computer numbers will be there, but I really think NC State needs to get to 8-8 in the ACC to make the Tournament. A 4-8 record would not be a good start.

Wake Forest 78, Florida State 70

A horrible night for Florida State. Not only this loss, but also the impending loss of Ryan Reid, who will surely land a suspension after his sucker-punch in this one. The Seminoles are nearly done for an at-large bid now, as this is their seventh loss in conference. They need to play almost perfect ball the rest of the way to get a bid. Wake Forest puts their name back on the bubble, however. They are now a solid 5-5, although their poor out-of-conference resume will be held against them (258th ranked schedule, overall RPI of 86th). I don't know if an 8-8 ACC record will be enough, as the RPI would still probably be outside the Top 50 and the Sagarin wouldn't be much higher than 50th either. They get a great chance for a glamor win on Sunday when Duke comes to town. If they win that, they'll garner some serious at-large attention. If they don't, they will head to Chapel Hill next and will probably end up just another 5-7 team in the ACC.

Fordham 76, UMass 72
An absolutely devastating loss for the Minutemen, who see their RPI nearly double in one evening. Bryant Dunston (apparently a nephew of ex-Chicago Cub Shawon) was a beast in this one, as Fordham really dominated the paint. I watched almost this entire game live and I really saw a lot of talent on UMass, but they just lack poise and experience. They had a chance early to put some real distance in the scoreline and bury the Rams. Instead they let their opponents hang in there and build confidence. UMass finally started playing well late in the game, but by that point they'd already allowed it to become a ballgame. It felt like Fordham had an answer for everything, and they've now nearly dashed the Minutemen's Tournament chances. The RPI is still a shade inside the Top 40, but that won't save them now. The 4-6 Atlantic Ten record will be an albatross around their neck for some time. Remember, they still have to head to Rhode Island and Richmond, and play a few other tough games. Even if by some miracle they finish 5-1, they'd still only be 9-7 in a mid-major conference. Would that be enough? Maybe. But even a strong 4-2 finish would put them down at 8-8, and there's just no way that a team from outside a BCS conference can finish 8-8 and expect to get an at-large bid. With the poor recent play out of UMass and Dayton, I think St. Joe's really becomes the third team in the A-10 pecking order. They wouldn't get an at-large bid of the season ended now, but they could certainly earn one if they can finish strong. The Atlantic Ten can still get a third Tournament team - they simply need to turn to an unlikely source.

W-4.5 BP65

The first of the twice-a-week brackets this season. This will continue until the final week of the regular season.

1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. North Carolina
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)

3. Texas
3. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
3. UConn
3. Wisconsin

4. Stanford
4. DRAKE (MVC)
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Louisville

5. Purdue
5. Notre Dame
5. Texas A&M
5. Clemson

6. Washington State
6. Vanderbilt
6. Marquette
6. Kansas State

7. Pittsburgh
7. Indiana
7. BYU (MWC)
7. Arizona

8. USC
8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. West Virginia
8. Maryland

9. Arkansas
9. Saint Mary's
9. Rhode Island
9. Ohio State

10. Oklahoma
10. Florida
10. Illinois State
10. NC State

11. Syracuse
11. UNLV
11. Oregon
11. Mississippi State

12. Houston
12. Miami (Fl)
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. KENT STATE (MAC)

13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. NEVADA (WAC)

14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. CSU NORTHRIDGE (BIG WEST)

15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
15. HAMPTON (MEAC)

16. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)
16. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Florida State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Dayton, Massachusetts, St. Joseph's, Baylor, Creighton, Mississippi, South Alabama

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, Duquesne, Seton Hall, Villanova, VCU, New Mexico, Arizona State, Kentucky

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Charlotte, Temple, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Missouri, Texas Tech, UAB, Ohio, Southern Illinois, San Diego State, California, Utah State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Virginia, St. Louis, Providence, Nebraska, Pacific, UTEP, Wright State, Akron, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Utah, Washington, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, San Diego, Boise State

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

A Couple More Before The New Bracket

Remember, there will be a new BP65 out after tonight's games are completed. I'm going to try to stay up tonight to put it together, although there's a chance I might wait until the morning. A couple more games to discuss before that, though:

Alabama 76, Mississippi 67
I talked about this game earlier this evening. Right now the SEC is just an absolute mess. Obviously Tennessee is a Tournament team, but they are the only lock in the SEC right now. Vanderbilt is looking pretty safe, although they can't afford a collapse down the stretch. But after that, what is there? Arkansas would be in if the season ended now, but they don't have a huge margin of error. I do think Arkansas will stay in the Tournament, but it's not completely out there to think that the SEC might only get three teams. Especially if Ole Miss has more games like this. This loss drops the SEC record to a horrid 3-6. The RPI has also fallen to 34th. Seeing as how 9-7 is looking like a long-shot right now, the question will be if the Rebels can get in at 8-8. An 8-8 finish would make them 22-8 overall. If they could win a couple of SEC Tournament games to get to 24 wins, that's going to look pretty good. They'll definitely be in the bubble discussion. I do think at this point that they've fallen behind Mississippi State in the pecking order. Despite an inferior RPI, the Bulldogs are 7-2 in the SEC and their out-of-conference resume isn't all that awful (out-of-conference RPI of 119th). They can't get in as a 9-7 team, but 10-6 is a real possibility and that could very well be enough. Either way, the SEC needs to learn from the Big Ten. The bottom of the Big Ten has been rolling over, and even though the conference as a whole is having a down year they are looking very safe for five Tournament bids. Five teams have cleared the field and are rolling over everyone other than themselves. The SEC basement, however, is made up of spoilers. And it's going to shrink the conference's Tournament contingent.

Southern Illinois 65, #15 Drake 62

I don't really understand why Drake hasn't been getting a lot of national love. I'm sure that Drake fans will be angry that they're only finally going to get national attention because they got upset by Southern Illinois. The real story here is that it's even an upset for SIU to beat Drake. It's like the "Sign of the Apocalypse" moment during the college football season when Kansas football coach Mark Mangino had to remind fans that Nebraska was still a decent team. Either way, the Missouri Valley is the eighth best conference in the land (by basically every ranking system), and Drake has been rolling. No fan is going to jump off a cliff because the team is only 21-1 in their last 22 games. I really think that they're primed for something like a 4 seed. Southern Illinois, meanwhile, could use this win as a way to make a desperate push for an at-large bid. The 13-12 record means that the odds are long, but the Top Ten ranked schedule means that they have good computer numbers. They end the season with four winnable games. If they win those and make it to the Valley finals they'll end up 19-13, and with eight wins in their final ten games. And the computer numbers will be there. It's obviously an unlikely scenario, but I don't understand why people are dismissing Southern Illinois. They still have good defense, and they still have Randal Falker. Don't forget that this team could easily win the Missouri Valley Tournament outright. I don't think we've heard the last of the Salukis this season.

Wednesday Evening Update

Before I get to the games, some big news in that Stefhon Hannah is now done for his career at Missouri. It's a shame that the kid couldn't get his behavior under control, because he was really establishing himself as a star in the Big 12. He was an all-Big 12 quality player, but I have to question whether he has any NBA future. He can definitely get a job in Europe, but I guess we'll have to see. Sean Williams had life after being kicked off Boston College, so you never know. Anyway, to the games:

#17 UConn 84, #18 Notre Dame 78
UConn continues to tear through everybody in its path. And this despite the fact that Hasheem Thabeet had his worst game in a while - Luke Harangody outscored him by 28. But UConn's guards were just too quick for Notre Dame, which is a solid team but just seems a bit slow on the perimeter. They are also a mere 2-3 in true road games this season, something which you'll have to look at when March comes around (teams with poor road records tend to do poorly in Tournament situations). Certainly Notre Dame is still a Top 25 team, and they're still headed for a good seed in the Tournament. But this loss means that they now have very long odds at making a run for the Big East title. UConn jumps into third place in the conference, and the RPI is up to a sterling 10th. I don't think they really have a shot at a #1 seed because of the struggles early in the season, but there's no reason that UConn can't get a #2 seed if they can find a way to finish strong and take the Big East Tournament.

#14 Wisconsin 68, #12 Indiana 66
A great tight game, with a lot of scoring and action for a Big Ten game. So of course, the vast majority of people in Indiana and Wisconsin were unable to watch the game. What you saw in this one was, once again, the large amount of maturity and poise from the Wisconsin upperclassmen. They just hang in there and get the points from whoever is open and feeling it - in this one it was sophomore Jason Bohannon with a career high 18 points, all on six three pointers. Indiana, meanwhile, seems to be a bit too much about the Eric Gordon show. Don't get me wrong, Eric Gordon is a great player. But DJ White is a great player, too, and he didn't see the ball nearly enough in the last five minutes of the game because of so many isolation sets for Gordon. With the win, Wisconsin stays in the Big Ten title hunt. They are now alone in second place, although they'll need some help since they've already been swept by Purdue. The real worry here has to be for Indiana. The Hoosiers have done a great job of taking care of business, but they have absolutely been unable to close a big win. This loss drops them to 0-4 against the RPI Top 50. That is very worrisome for a team that had spent so much time this year in the Top Ten. They have their twenty wins, but they need something to brag about. And they get a great chance this coming week, when both Michigan State and Purdue come to Assembly Hall. And Ohio State comes to Bloomington the week after. Indiana absolutely needs to win two of those three games if they want to stay in consideration for something like a four or a five seed. As a side note, be aware that AJ Ratliff is done for the season. And ESPN is reporting that Kelvin Sampson is being investigated for yet more rules violations. Bad day for Hoosier fans.

Duquesne 63, Dayton 61

Dayton's collapse continues, as this is now their sixth loss in eight games. They're almost all healthy, but it almost doesn't matter at this point. It's clear that the pressure of expectations just got to this team. At 4-6 they could still finish 9-7, and a 5-1 finish to get there would probably be enough for an at-large bid. But does anybody see this team turning it around to win five of their next six games? I don't. The once-lofty RPI is down to 27th, as well. But while Dayton is heading down, Duquesne is on the way up. This is now three straight games over good teams - St. Joe's, Lasalle and Dayton. The RPI is up close to 70th and the Sagarin is nice as well. Most analysts will consider this an upset, but Sagarin's PREDICTOR lived up to its name - heading into tonight's games, Duquesne was 41st and Dayton was 79th. The Dukes obviously wouldn't be in the Tournament if the season ended now, but they're not out of this thing. At 6-4 in the Atlantic Ten, they've possibly leaped ahead of Dayton in the conference pecking order. They're definitely a team to keep an eye on.

LSU 85, Florida 73
Maybe they should've fired Brady earlier. Clearly the team is playing some inspired ball right now. Just lights out shooting in this one (60% from the field). Too bad all they can do at this point is play spoiler. And spoil Florida's week they did. The Gators were denied their 20th win, and their SEC record drops to a mediocre 6-4. More importantly, the RPI took an absolute tumble out of the top 50. They head to Tennessee next, and assuming they don't win that, it's going to be a struggle just to get to 9-7. And I don't know if 9-7 will be enough for a team out of a weak SEC without any real out-of-conference wins to brag about. This might have been a look-ahead game with the Vols coming to town. The Gators could definitely use that win. An at-large bid is absolutely an iffy proposition right now - that RPI is just unacceptable. And the Sagarin ratings will be mediocre as well (they were 34th before this loss - I'm sure they'll drop well out of the Top 40 with this loss). Florida has a lot of young talent, but they clearly lack the floor experience needed for consistency.

Will You Forgive Me?

Sorry about the lack of posting over the past three days. It's the political season here in Wisconsin (our Presidential primary is next Tuesday) and it's absorbed much of my free time. I will be around tonight, however. There are a ton of big games to look forward to, including two massive match-ups right at 7pm eastern time:

Indiana and Wisconsin battle for second place in the Big Ten. What's shocking isn't that they're battling for second, it's the team that they're chasing. Purdue has been on a shocking run - first by making me realize that I'd jinxed Saturday by dismissing it too early, and then by taking out Michigan State. Suddenly the Spartans are practically out of the regular season race. And Wisconsin might be out, for all intents and purposes, if they can't pull out the win tonight. Purdue only has one loss and has the head-to-head sweep of Wisconsin, so a third loss for Wisconsin will probably do it for them. A win for Indiana, however, would put them right in line for a run. They only have one loss in the Big Ten (to Wisconsin), and their one game with Purdue this season will be at home. They do still have a head-to-head with Michigan State to go, however.

Notre Dame and UConn battle for Big East position. The Big East is so bunched up that every single win or loss can mean three or four spots in the standings. UConn, despite their incredible run, is still a long-shot for the Big East regular season title. Notre Dame's chances are better, especially if they can pull off the upset tonight. It did seem as if Georgetown was running away with things, until Louisville took care of business in front of a crazed crowd on Saturday night. Now everything is a mess, and there are now four teams in the mix. There are too many scenarios to go throug here, but it's enough to say that tonight's game will have major implications.

A sleeper game tonight: Ole Miss at Alabama, 8pm eastern time. Ole Miss has great computer numbers, and their overall resume is pretty solid if the season ended now. The problem: they're 3-5 in the SEC. Their schedule the rest of the way is relatively easy, and they should win most of them. But a loss here would drop them to 3-6, and they'd have to be nearly perfect the rest of the way to make it to 9-7. If they drop to 8-8, a real possibility if they lose tonight, the Tournament will be a real long-shot.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

W-5 BP65

Please note, this is the last of the once-per-week BP65s. From now until the final week of the regular season, brackets will come out twice weekly. So, the next bracket will be out by sometime Thursday morning. Without further ado, the new bracket:

1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. North Carolina
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)

3. Texas
3. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
3. UConn
3. Wisconsin

4. Indiana
4. Stanford
4. DRAKE (MVC)
4. Washington State

5. BUTLER (HORIZON)
5. Notre Dame
5. Texas A&M
5. Clemson

6. Kansas State
6. USC
6. Louisville
6. Vanderbilt

7. GONZAGA (WCC)
7. Marquette
7. Purdue
7. Florida

8. Pittsburgh
8. BYU (MWC)
8. Arizona
8. Rhode Island

9. Syracuse
9. Saint Mary's
9. Baylor
9. Ohio State

10. Mississippi
10. West Virginia
10. Maryland
10. Creighton

11. Arkansas
11. Oregon
11. Oklahoma
11. NC State

12. UNLV
12. Boston College
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. KENT STATE (MAC)

13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. NEVADA (WAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CSU NORTHRIDGE (BIG WEST)
14. CORNELL (IVY)

15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. HAMPTON (MEAC)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)

15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)
16. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Florida State, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, Dayton, Massachusetts, Houston, Illinois State, Mississippi State, South Alabama

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, St. Joseph's, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, Minnesota, Missouri, VCU, San Diego State, Arizona State, Kentucky, Utah State

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Charlotte, Duquesne, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, UAB, Ohio, Southern Illinois, New Mexico, California

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Virginia, St. Louis, Temple, Depaul, Iowa State, Nebraska, Pacific, Tulane, UTEP, Wright State, Akron, Miami (OH), Bradley, Northern Iowa, Utah, Washington, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, San Diego, Boise State

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Nothing Saturday

Really, it's hard to imagine a Saturday this late into a season where less has happened. Few top teams playing each other, and no real upsets to speak of. I'll talk about the most important results from the day so far regardless:

#17 Washington State 74, USC 50
Maybe Washington State has really turned the corner, as I suggested was possible after their last game a few days back. After a bunch of horrible shooting games, Wazzu was scorching in this one. In all, 60% shooting from the field. When you're second in the nation in defensive points allowed per game, you don't need to shoot that well to beat good teams. In this one they shot real well, and buried a red-hot USC squad. It's too late for the Cougars to make a run at the conference title, but this win puts these two squads in a tie for third place in the Pac-10. If Washington State can finish somewhere around 11-7 in the conference they should still get a very nice Tournament seed. The computer numbers will continue to be spectacular, and they should remain safely in the Top 25. USC, of course, is not in too much danger right now of falling out of the Tournament. This would have been a great win, but nobody will hold it against them for losing at a team with such a strong homefield advantage. Now, they have 8 days to prepare for a big match-up against UCLA next Sunday. USC already took the win at Pauley Pavilion, and a win next Sunday would give them the season sweep. Other than the UCLA game, the USC schedule really isn't that bad at all. Even if they lose the game against UCLA, I still can't imagine them finishing worse than 10-8. And that will be plenty for a single-digit seed in the Tournament.

Arkansas 75, Mississippi 69
Another huge win for the red-hot Razorbacks. It's certainly a surprising turn of events, but at this point everyone would have to agree that there's no way Arkansas doesn't make the Tournament if the season ended now. The thing is that Arkansas doesn't have any wins that blow you away, and they do have a bad loss (Appalachian State), so they're getting in the Tournament on the 6-2 SEC record and the solid computer numbers (33rd in the RPI). So the key is keeping that strong SEC record. Unfortunately, they now head to Tennessee and Mississippi State for two straight tough road games. The fact is that if they play mediocre the rest of the way, something like a 9-7 SEC record is a real possibility. Can Arkansas get in at 9-7? Maybe... but probably not. It will depend who they beat and how they finish. A win at Tennessee, Ole Miss or Mississippi State would go a very long way. As for Ole Miss, what is going on? My guess is that they're struggling to deal with the pressure of being good. Once you pull off a few upsets and get that respect from the national media, suddenly everything gets a bit more stressful. There's just a bit too much pressure. You can see it in this game, where the difference in the game was nothing other than foul shooting. The Rebs hit 52% from the line, and that doesn't even count the misses on the front end of one-and-ones (which I still believe should be accounted for in foul shooting percentages somehow - since it represents extra points left on the table). They do get a chance to get their act together Monday when they welcome in a patsy to slaughter (Presbyterian and their RPI of 325). Ole Miss does have good computer numbers, and they already have wins over Florida and Vanderbilt to brag about. So they are much more likely to get in as a 9-7 team than Arkansas. But they've got to get there, and it's going to be tough with a 3-5 start.

Maryland 84, North Carolina State 70
Maryland moves into third place in the ACC with this solid offensive performance against NC State. State's defense has struggled for a while, but it's more than mediocre defense when a team shoots 58% from the field, 60% from behind the arc and 86% from the line. Maryland established a solid lead early in the second half of this one and just never let up. They just weren't missing. The computer numbers are still mediocre, but that 6-3 ACC record looks very good right now. Maryland's computer numbers are based on a weak out-of-conference schedule and performance (overall out-of-conference RPI of 110th in the nation). But that will improve as they keep winning and the strength of schedule keeps getting better. They head to Duke next, but after that the schedule gets really easy (at least as far as an ACC schedule can be). And they have that UNC win to brag about. I'm going to move these guys back into the BP65 after tonight's games are over, because they've definitely earned it. As for NC State, this was not what they need. Their overall resume has high points and low points, and they look like a team that is going to go the whole way as a bubble team. This loss drops them to 4-5 in the ACC, and they still have to play the mighty duo of Duke and UNC. If they can get to 8-8 in conference, they'll be a Tournament team. If they're only 7-9, it's too early to tell. They could really use a win over one of the aforementioned duo.

Afternoon Update

Most of the country is getting to watch Texas get all it can handle from a pesky Iowa State team. But for now, let's just get to games already completed earlier today:

#21 Notre Dame 86, #16 Marquette 83
Notre Dame didn't hit a shot from the field in the final 6:23 of this game. But what they did do was hit their free throws. They went 10-for-10 from the line during that stretch from their last field goal to the final buzzer. Very impressive - good teams find a way to win when things aren't going their way. And a key is always to hit your free throws. They're free points, and they devastate your chances if you can't hit them. Just ask Shaun Pruitt. Notre Dame's chances of winning the Big East are still somewhat long because of an unfortunate quirk in the Big East schedule - their only game against Georgetown was on the road. They lost that game, and don't get a chance to make it up. Still, 8-2 in the Big East is good for second place, and will look very good on Selection Sunday. And you can bet they'll be Louisville fans tonight. Nobody's schedule is ever easy in the Big East, but it really could be a lot worse than what the Irish have the rest of the way. I can easily see a 14-4 finish. As for Marquette, they're just kind of in a funk. You can't find much to criticize when you take it down to the buzzer against a team that showed up with a 33 game home winning streak, but this is yet another example of the Golden Warriors (as some stubborn Marquette fans call the team) coming up just short. They aren't in any danger of falling out of the Tournament anytime soon, but there is a good shot that they'll fall out of the Top 25. But as long as they can get out of this funk by March they'll be fine for a Tournament run.

Miami (Fl) 74, Virginia Tech 71

The Canes somehow survived this one to stay in the bubble picture. Virginia Tech shot very well (55% from the field), but could not deal with the Miami bigs on the inside. I was shocked at how Virginia Tech just got out-athleted in this one. This ends a very bad week for a Va Tech team that has fallen all the way out of the RPI Top 60. The 5-5 ACC record is still pretty good, but you need to win these kinds of games in the ACC. Because when you don't take care of business, suddenly you find yourself heading to UNC and Maryland desperately needing a win. Miami, meanwhile, stays alive by improving the conference record to 3-6. Still a long way to go, but the computer numbers are so good. They are still living off that early undefeated run (remember, this team was #1 in the RPI more than a month into the season). The schedule is not really that awful the rest of the way, but Miami needs to get to a minimum of 7-9 in the ACC to even be considered for a bid. And they probably need to be 8-8. That requires a 5-2 finish against a tough schedule. Not an easy task for anybody.

TCU 68, San Diego State 62
A bad loss for a San Diego State team that just really can't get over the hump. The overall numbers seem pretty solid (6-3 in the Moutain West, 15-7 overall, RPI of 64), but they just haven't been able to get a win over a good team. California, St. Mary's, UNLV, BYU... all of those would be solid victories. But all of them have been losses. Throw in the losses to Northern Colorado and this one to TCU, and the odds are just getting pretty long to the Aztecs. They might need to win that conference Tournament, unless they basically go undefeated the rest of the regular season.

Good Morning

Excited for another Saturday of action? Me too. We are really getting pretty far into the schedule, with some smaller conferences actually nearing the end of their in-conference slates. A couple notes:

I forgot to link this article yesterday. A good analysis of offensive and defensive efficiency by the top seven teams in the country. There are too many statistics here to go through all of them right now, but I thought I'd focus on Duke/Carolina since I talked about it two days ago. First, this data backs up what I said about Carolina's defense being underrated. It has seemed to me that they have a few good individual defenders, who can each do a good job of shutting down their own man. If I recall, it was Marcus Ginyard who was Stephen Curry's shadow back in their season opener, for example. North Carolina gives up a lot of points, but they also score a lot of points. They simply have a lot of possessions, and that gets worked out of the process when you stop analyzing points per game, and start analyzing defensive efficiency. As for Duke, this analysis actually goes against my theory that Duke's offensive has a high variation. If you look at the variance of the offense, it's actually about average for the top seven teams, and essentially the same as Carolina's (variance is the square of the standard deviation, for those not statistically inclined). I'm not sure that this really changes my theory about their Championship chances, though, because the fact still stands about teams that depend on the three-pointer. So far this year, Duke hasn't had the shot fail them against a top team. But you can't assume that will always be true. This team hasn't had a whole lot of experience in important Tournament games (especially shocking for a Duke squad). When they get in unfamiliar circumstances against unfamiliar teams, it's possible that they'll just get cold. And Duke is not going to be able to beat a good team when the three-pointer isn't falling at a decent clip.

One last note from the Illinois/Indiana game. Good to see that Illinois has apologized to Eric Gordon for the performance of the student section. I talked about my disappointment regarding their abuse yesterday. What I also noted, which was ironic, was that the obsession with getting on Gordon actually hurt the Illini's chances of winning the game. In the first half, they really rattled Gordon, who only scored one point. And that's why Illinois led for most of the first thirty minutes of the game. But eventually, Gordon pushed the crowd out of his mind and played well. He ended up with a decent 19 points (although 3-for-13 shooting from the field still looks pretty bad). But the point is, while the crowd was so obsessed with Gordon, they forgot about the rest of the game. They were remarkably quiet when Indiana had the ball, wiping out the strong home-field advantage that the Illini generally enjoy. Especially on the final possessions of the second half, when I was shocked at how dead-looking the Illinois student section was. Except when Gordon touched the ball, of course. Regardless, it's good to see that Illinois apologized. It's been a tough season for that team, especially for its seniors. But one bright spot about that game was the coming-out performance by Demetri McCamey, the Illini's own super-frosh. He is going to be a star in the Big Ten at some point, and definitely is something for Illinois fans to look forward to.