Saturday, August 22, 2009

Very Early 2010-11 Preview: Big 12

Kansas: The Jayhawks will almost definitely be the preseason #1 team in the nation for the 2009-10 season, and another good recruiting class is being put together for 2010, but that doesn't imply that Kansas should immediately be a favorite to win the Big 12 in 2011. They will be losing a lot, both to graduation and the NBA Draft. Sherron Collins is arguably the best player on Kansas right now, and he will graduate, as will regular rotation player Mario Little. But the real loss will be to the draft, where Cole Aldrich is expected to be a top ten pick, and Xavier Henry is expected to be a one-and-done player. Not only that, but Tyshawn Taylor might go pro early as well. Assuming all of those players leave, however, the cupboard will not be totally bare in Kansas.

Tyrel Reed and Brady Morningstar will both be back in the backcourt in 2010-11. Travis Releford and Elijah Johnson are good prospects who should also be back. Two other guards that will be back are Conner Teahan and C.J. Henry, although neither is highly rated. In the frontcourt, the key returners will be Marcus and Markieff Morris. Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey are both good prospects that should be back, but that's it at the moment. At the point of this writing, the only oral commitment for 2010 is shooting guard Royce Woolridge (Rivals: 117), but Bill Self is in the mix for most of the top names left in the 2010 class, and you can be sure that he'll grab a few of them. Even if Tyshawn Taylor goes pro, Kansas will still be deep and good at the guard positions. The question mark will be inside, where they will be thin and very dependent on the development of '09-10 true freshman Robinson. They also really need a swing forward. Marcus Morris can potentially play at small forward, but Self could really use a star small forward in his 2010 class. Kansas will still be very talented in 2010-11, but they will only compete for a Big 12 title if they have a really good 2010 recruiting class.

Texas: Like Kansas, Texas seems to lose several key players each season, yet seems to always have an elite recruiting class that keeps them among the best teams in the nation. They had a ton of turnover between the 2008-09 and 2009-10 season, and the pattern will continue in 2010-11. Unlike Kansas, however, Texas has already locked up a couple of top 2010 recruits (both Rivals.com and ESPN.com rate it among the Top 5 classes, at these early stages). But first, let's talk about who they are going to lose. The key losses for Texas will actually be to graduation: Damion James, Dexter Pittman and Justin Mason should all start in 2009-10, and all will graduate. Another potential loss is Avery Bradley, who is rated by many the top recruit in the entire nation for 2009, and could be a one-and-done guy. That said, right now Bradley is projected as a borderline lottery guy for the 2010 NBA Draft, and one can imagine that if he drops any further that he will stick around for another season.

But even if Bradley goes, I still believe that Texas will contend for the 2011 Big 12 title. Starting with the front court, Dogus Balbay was one of the most underrated players in the nation last season - not only should he be a quality starter in 2010-11, he is also really fun to watch play. If Bradley goes pro then the second starting guard will be uncertain, but there are a ton of players to choose from. Varez Ward is a quality prospect, and J'Covan Brown is an even better prospect if he can play (he was actually a 2008 recruit, but failed to qualify academically... I believe he is expected to play in 2009-10, but I'm not positive). Jai Lucas is a quality point guard who has transferred in from Florida. Texas also has a 2010 oral commitment from shooting guard Daniel Bejerano (Scout: 7 SG, Rivals: 57). If Bradley comes back for his sophomore season then Texas will almost definitely have the best backcourt in the Big 12, but they'll be good and deep at the guard position even without him. Things aren't quite as certain in the frontcourt, but Texas is still deep with several good prospects. The one certainty in the frontcourt for 2010-11 is Gary Johnson. After that there are several decent prospects who didn't play much in 2008-09 but are expected to become quality players in the future: Clint Champman, Alex Wangmene and Matt Hill. All four of the aforementioned players can play power forward or center, but neither would make a good small forward. No fear, however, as 2009-10 freshmen Jordan Hamilton and Shawn Williams are both swing men. Whichever of those two players has a better '09-'10 season will likely start at small forward in 2010-11. Texas will also potentially have a freshman starting in the front court in '10-'11 with Tristan Thompson (Scout: 1 PF, Rivals: 17). Even if Texas doesn't sign another 2010 player they will contend for the 2011 Big 12 Championship, but another big recruit or two could potentially make them a Final Four contender.

Texas A&M: The Aggies got good news when Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis elected to come back for the 2009-10 season, but both will be seniors and will graduate in 2010. They will also lose a third starter to graduation: Derrick Roland. Texas A&M has a good coach in Mark Turgeon, but can they compete near the top of the Big 12 in 2010-11 after losing three starters? It's possible, but the disparity in talent makes it unlikely. B.J. Holmes and Dash Harris will compete for starting backcourt jobs, but neither has played all too well thus far in their collegiate careers. 2009-10 freshman Naji Hibbert is a quality prospect, but not a sure thing. Jeremy Adams will also potentially get a lot of minutes in 2010-11. The 2010 recruiting class doesn't yet have any guards. The front court situation is a bit better for A&M, but they're still not remotely in the class of Texas/Kansas in terms of talent. David Loubeau does look like a very good young player, and Nathan Walkup played fairly well in 2008-09, but after that the Aggies just have a bunch of decent prospects that haven't yet proven anything at the collegiate level: Khris Middleton, Kourtney Roberson and Ray Turner. Expect Turgeon to look early to his 2010 recruiting class, which has two good frontcourt oral commits already: Tobi Oyedeji (Scout: 16 PF, Rivals: 82) and Daniel Alexander (Scout: 17 PF, Rivals: 89).

Oklahoma: The Sooners were very happy to get Willie Warren back for his sophomore season, but it's extremely unlikely that he'll come back for his junior season. Fellow backcourt starter Tony Crocker will also be gone after 2009-10 to graduation, as will Ryan Wright. The one sure player left in the backcourt for 2010-11 will be Cade Davis. Ray Willis should be in the rotation, but the other starting guard will likely be either Tommy Mason-Griffin or Steven Pledger. Amazingly, the frontcourt situation is actually worse, with 2009-10 freshman Keith Gallon the only elite talent, although at 6'8", 300 pounds, he's probably got to shed a little bit of weight before he can play 30 minutes a game in the Big 12. Other key front court returners will be Orlando Allen, Andrew Fitzgerald and Kyle Harrick. Honestly, it's hard to see how Oklahoma is going to have the talent to hang with the top teams in the Big 12 in 2010-11 unless they bring in an elite 2010 recruiting class. They're in the hunt for several of the big names, but thus far they have none committed.

Missouri: Mike Anderson has had a ton of success at Missouri these last couple of years, but he's going to need to start winning with a whole new group of unknowns, because the core of his 2007-08-09 teams will be completely gone by 2010-11. J.T. Tiller, Zaire Taylor and Keith Ramsey will be the key players from the 2009-10 team that will graduate in 2010. In the backcourt, Anderson will have three key guards from his 2009-10 team that will return: Marcus Denmon, Kim English and Miguel Paul. Michael Dixon will be a freshman shooting guard in 2009-10 who likely will not be a huge presence as a freshman, but has the potential to be an important player in 2010-11. The best front court returners will be Justin Safford and Laurence Bowers, with Steve Moore potentially being a rotation player as well. The 2010 class doesn't yet have any oral commits, although one possibility is power forward Keith Dewitt, a 2009 recruit who failed to quality academically, and who for the time being is saying that he'd still like to come to Missouri if he can qualify this coming season. Missouri is not going to have any of the big time future-NBA stars that Texas and Kansas will have in 2010-11, but Mike Anderson has never had those guys and yet has constantly found ways to win. It's hard to project what kind of team they'll be in 2010-11 until we see how a lot of these young guys develop in 2009-10. It will also depend on which high schoolers eventually get signed for the 2010 class.

Oklahoma State: 2009-10 is a rebuilding season for Oklahoma State, but they should be much better in 2010-11. Obi Muonelo is the one key player who will graduate, and all of the young players getting all of the playing time in 2009-10 will just be one year older and more experienced. The one question mark is leading scorer James Anderson, who is a potential first round draft pick in 2010 should he decide to go. In the backcourt, Keiton Page will likely be the best returner (assuming Anderson goes pro), along with Ray Penn. Other quality returners will include Nick Sidorakis and Fred Gulley. In the frontcourt, Marshall Moses will likely be the starting small forward, and will be joined by Roger Franklin (who is listed as a small forward, but might be moved to shooting guard), Karron Johnson, Torrin Walker and Teeng Akol. The 2010 class does not yet include any blue chippers, but even without any new stars one has to expect that Oklahoma State will be better with so many good young prospects. The only way they'll compete for one of the top two or three spots in the Big 12 will be if James Anderson returns and they can sign a big time recruit or two, but even without that they do seem likely to get back to the NCAA Tournament.

Kansas State: The Wildcats will lose two starters to graduation in 2010: Denis Clemente and Luis Colon. Clemente is the tougher loss, of course, but Kansas State will still have Jacob Pullen as a starter, as well as several other quality backcourt returners. Nick Russell and Devon Peterson will provide depth. The one 2010 commitment right now is a point guard, Will Spradling, who will likely back up Pullen. Right now it's unclear who will start at shooting guard, and Frank Martin is probably hoping to find one in his 2010 class. Dominique Sutton can play shooting guard, although Martin might prefer to have him start as a small forward with his size. Jamar Samuels is another key returner, who is athletic enough to play the three but is best at power forward. Wally Judge will be another good frontcourt returner. Kansas State will likely have a better starting lineup than a majority of Big 12 teams in 2010-11, but they're thin because of a string of transfers out. They are definitely a potential Tournament team in 2011, but they're going to need a couple more 2010 recruits for me to feel good about projecting them there.

Baylor: The Baylor Bears have been rapidly improving as a program under Scott Drew and I expect to see them contending near the top of the Big 12 in 2010-11. They do lose two key players to graduation in Tweety Carter and Josh Lomers, but neither of those players is irreplaceable. Both Nolan Dennis and LaceDarius Dunn will be very good returners at the guard position, although neither is a point guard. Depending on the development of A.J. Walton as a freshman in 2009-10, he could potentially start at point guard in 2010-11, or else Baylor can just go with Dennis and Dunn. It's not like a lot of other teams have true point guards anyway. Mark McLaughlin will provide depth at the shooting guard position. Baylor will have two excellent options at the small forward position in Quincy Acy and Givon Crump. Fred Ellis is also an option. On the inside, Ekpe Udoh will almost definitely start in 2010-11, where he can play power forward or center. Cory Jefferson will also be a key returner on the inside. Another potential starter is 2010 recruit Perry Jones (Scout: 4 C, Rivals: 6). A starting lineup of Dennis, Dunn, Crump, Udoh and Jones would be one of the best in the conference. Throw in Acy, Walton, McLaughlin and Jefferson and that's a really good nine man rotation. Don't be too surprised to see Baylor actually contend for one of the top two or three spots in the Big 12 in 2010-11.

Nebraska: Ryan Anderson, Sek Henry and Chris Balham will be key graduation losses for Nebraska in 2010. Throw in a few transfers out and the Cornhuskers will be fairly thin in 2010-11. The two best returners will be point guard Brandon Richardson and shooting guard/small forward Toney McCray. Shooting guards Eshaunte Jones and Adrien Coleman should also be key returners. Due to transfers out, though, the frontcourt cupboard is almost entirely bare in Lincoln. Returners will be Quincy Hankins-Cole, Brandon Ubel, Brian Diaz, Christian Niemann and Christian Standhardingen. Nebraska will be especially dependent on Niemann and Standhardingen, who both come from Germany, and will have to pick up the slack for a series of weak recruiting classes in terms of US high school-based big men. Doc Sadler often goes with a three-guard lineup, so that's a real possibility in 2010-11 if the young big men don't pan out. But however the lineup is organized, it's going to take a few good 2010 recruits for Nebraska to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament.

Colorado: Dwight Thorne graduates from the starting lineup after the 2009-10 season, but he will be the only key loss for Jeff Bzdelik's gradually improving Colorado program. Backcourt starters Nate Tomlinson and Cory Higgins will be back, with Tomlinson most likely starting at the point, with Higgins most likely starting at shooting guard. Levi Knutson, Javon Coney, Andrew Zehnder, Alec Burks and Shannon Sharpe also return as guards. None of those players are projected to be stars, but with so many possibilites you have to figure that at least one or two of them will develop into quality players. Colorado is also very deep in the frontcourt, with starting power forward Austin Dufault returning. Other key returners will be Casey Crawford and Trey Eckloff. Toby Veale also might be a key bench player in 2010-11. Right now there are no 2010 commits yet. Colorado is slowly improving under Bzdelik, and they will be very deep with a large rotation in 2010-11, but they still lack the kind of elite talent that will allow them to compete with the top teams in the conference. They're going to need to bring in a blue chipper or two if they're going to make a plausible run at the 2011 NCAA Tournament.

Texas Tech: Pat Knight is on the hot seat because he has been unable to bring top talent to Texas Tech, and I don't see why the talent gap is going to narrow in 2010-11. The Red Raiders also lose key players Nick Okorie, Darko Cohadarevic and Trevor Cook to graduation. In the backcourt, the key returner will be point guard John Roberson. Other backcourt returners will be David Tairu, Mike Davis and Jaye Crockett, none of whom are highly rated prospects. Things aren't much better in the frontcourt where D'Walyn Roberts, Robert Lewandowski and Corbin Ray will be key returners. Roberts and Ray are both small forwards, although Roberts is better suited to playing at power forward than Ray. Lewandowski is a power forward. Brad Reese and Theron Jenkins will also be small forward returners. Right now there are no players signed for 2010, and it's going to take several good 2010 recruits or a couple of good players transferring in for Texas Tech to have any chance at postseason basketball in 2011.

Iowa State: The Cyclones lose only Jamie Vanderbeken and Marquis Gilstrap to graduation from the starting rotation, but the real worry is Craig Brackins, who is expected by most to go pro and be a late lottery pick in the 2010 NBA Draft. If Brackins leaves then Iowa State becomes very thin in the frontcourt in 2010-11, with only center Justin Hamilton as a real quality returner. Laron Dendy and L.A. Pomlee will be the other frontcout returners. Things are better in the backcourt, with Diante Garrett and Lucca Staiger both good returners, along with Charles Boozer, Dominique Buckley and Chris Colvin. Colvin will only be a freshman in 2009-10, but he is one of the highest rated point guards to come through Ames in recent memory, and will potentially be starting at the point from day one. If Greg McDermott can bring back Brackins for one more season, and can pull together a decent 2010 recruiting class, Iowa State can potentially make a run at the 2011 NCAA Tournament. But most likely Brackins does leave, and Iowa State will then probably finish in the bottom half of the conference.

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