Monday, November 16, 2009

More Problems For Oregon State, Iowa

Texas Tech 64, Oregon State 60
Oregon State loses yet again. Texas Tech isn't as bad of a loss as Texas A&M CC, but it's not a good loss either. Texas Tech is a serious contender to finish in last place in the Big 12, and in my opinion is unlikely to make a run at any kind of a postseason tournament. And this wasn't a fluke loss, like it would have been if Texas Tech just got really hot from behind the arc, or something like that. The Beavers had more steals and blocks, and blew Texas Tech off the boards. And they show 82% from the line. The difference was ball handling, with 20 turnovers being the difference in the game. Nobody is eliminated from the NCAA Tournament with two losses, and let's not forget that Oregon State got off to a terrible start last season before playing decent during the Pac-10 season. So there's plenty of time to turn things around. But this is not at all the start that Craig Robinson was hoping for. As for Texas Tech, while I did say that I don't view them as a serious postseason contender, it wouldn't be the first time that I was wrong. Texas Tech has this win to go with a solid victory over Texas A&M CC, and a nice taking-care-of-business blowout of a bad South Dakota team. They now have four straight games that they should win, followed by a game against Washington where they'll probably lose. I'm going to look instead at the stretch after that: at TCU, at Wichita State, vs Stanford, at New Mexico. If they're going to make any noise this season they've got to win at least two of those, and avoid any bad losses out-of-conference.

Texas-San Antonio 62, Iowa 50
Most analysts expect the Big Ten to be the best and deepest conference this season, and I agree. Ten of the 11 teams are legitimate Tournament contenders, and there just aren't any opponents that are easy beats... except for Iowa. They were bad last season, and should be even worse this season. Players have transferred out or graduated, and the recruiting classes just haven't been there. It's a near-certainty that they'll finish in last place in the Big Ten, and the real question is just whether they'll show signs of life. They've got a lot of young players, and some of them have to show signs of developing into quality players. Because if they don't then it's hard to see Todd Lickliter getting another year at the helm of the Hawkeyes. And as for UT-SA, how about the Southland West? As bad as Iowa is, they're still a nice scalp for a Southland team. And Texas A&M CC has that win over Oregon State, and nearly beat Texas Tech. And the Southland West also features the team I picked to win the conference (Sam Houston State), as well as perennial Southland power (and the defending regular season and tournament champion) Stephen F Austin. Is it really going out on a limb in November to project two Southland West teams meeting in the finals of the Southland tournament?

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