UCLA Is Struggling

Cal State Fullerton 68, UCLA 65, 2OT
I watched a lot of this game and, honestly, it didn't feel like much of an upset. A couple of weeks ago I talked about how this UCLA team might be a bubble team, and you could see in this game how much the lack of experienced players, and the string if minor injuries, has affected this team. They looked like a team that just hadn't practiced together. And while the freshmen and sophomores on the team are quality recruits, none of them are super-duper stars like a John Wall or Abdul Gaddy that a BCS team can rely on from day one. So they're left relying on a senior class that just is not very good. I do expect the team to improve as the season goes along, when you consider the fact that things have to get better once the team gets healthy and gets to practice together a bit more. If there's one more thing to point out that alarmed me, it was a startling lack of athleticism on the perimeter. Washington and California, the two best teams in the Pac-10, have plenty of weaknesses, but both have a slew of quick, creative guards. The way that UCLA looked in this game, you just get the sense that Washington and Cal will tear them up. In my opinion, the best UCLA can hope for is a third place finish in a mediocre Pac-10. Worst case scenario? Missing the NCAA Tournament altogether.

Saint Mary's 80, San Diego State 68
Omar Samham dominated inside, and Saint Mary's also dominated with guard play, and in the end this game wasn't even close. Saint Mary's has looked dominant in their first two home games, but the question now is how they'll do on the road. I'm looking ahead at road games at Utah State and Oregon. If they can win those two games, and avoid any bad losses, then they'll be in good shape entering the WCC regular season. If they can beat Vanderbilt on Friday night then they're really in good shape. As for San Diego State, this loss goes down as a missed opportunity, but it will not be a bad loss at the end of the season. In the Mountain West there are plenty of chances to make up for a loss like this one.

#2 Michigan State 75, Gonzaga 70
The question people want to ask is: Does this mean that Michigan State is overrated, or Gonzaga is underrated? In reality, it's always a mistake to draw too many conclusions for one game. It's quite possible that neither team is overrated or underrated. But I have been saying that Michigan State is a little overrated, and what we saw during this game was what I was warning about. Too many people are underestimating the effect of the loss of Goran Suton, in two important ways. The fact that he could stand near the top of the key and they could run the offense through him meant two things: they could run their offense closer to the basket, and the paint was cleared up so that Kalin Lucas could cause havoc. Watching this game I saw two bad things: Michigan State was running their offense by passing the ball around behind the three-point line, and Lucas found the paint full of Gonzaga defenders who did not near to go away from the basket to guard Michigan State's big men. Michigan State is still an elite team that will contend for a Big Ten title, but in my opinion they are not the favorites. That would be Purdue. And as for Gonzaga, they look again to be the favorites in the WCC. I'm not sure they're a Top 25 team, but they're good.