Wednesday, November 25, 2009

UConn Rolls In The Garden

#13 UConn 81, LSU 55
It's hard to tell how good UConn is from this game just because their opponent was so bad. LSU just looked terrible - even Tasmin Mitchell didn't impress me. One bright spot was Storm Warren, who looks like he's developing into a really dominant low post presence. After being at the end of the team's rotation last season, he's emerged as perhaps the best player on the team other than Mitchell. Still, as awful as LSU played, UConn did look like they always look: they're athletic, they can rebound, and they can block shots. I'm particularly impressed with the development of Stanley Robinson, who was an after-thought for the last couple of years, but has now emerged as a true inside threat. We'll get a better sense of where UConn is as a team whenever they play a worthy opponent. That will happen in their next game if Duke takes care of Arizona State tonight. As for LSU, there are plenty of opportunities to win games in a terrible SEC West, but they're going to have to play a lot better than this to beat anybody.

Wisconsin 78, #24 Maryland 69
A nice performance by Wisconsin here salvages the Maui Invitational after their bad performance against Gonzaga yesterday. For the first time in this tournament they hit their outside shots, with Jason Bohannon particularly deadly (4-for-5 from behind the arc). I also really like the inside presence of Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil, who have both really developed since last season and are poised to be one of the better frontcourt duos in the Big Ten. The one worry I have for this Badgers team is depth, as I'm not too impressed with the backcourt when Trevon Hughes is off the floor, and they don't have anybody who can score inside when Nankivil and Leuer are out (as we learned during their victory over Arizona a couple of days ago, when both were in foul trouble). Still, two quality wins means that Wisconsin is well on their way to another at-large bid. I think they'll finish somewhere in the 4th-7th range in the Big Ten, and the Big Ten should get seven Tournament teams. As for Maryland, this was not a good tournament for them at all. They looked unimpressive against Chaminade before opening up the game late, and then were out-worked and out-played on consecutive days by Cincinnati and Wisconsin. I thought they might have had the ability to challenge for second or third in the ACC with all of the players they brought back from last season, but instead they look like a bubble team. They get a quick chance to bounce back against a bad Indiana team next week, but will have to beat Villanova on December 6th to salvage anything at all from the out-of-conference portion of their schedule.

#24 Vanderbilt 84, Arizona 72
This tournament was looking like a bit of a disaster for Vanderbilt, but they went on a really nice run over the last five minutes of the game to land a solid victory over Arizona. They clearly have room for improvement (for example, an atrocious 15-for-29 from the free thrown line), but I think Vandy will be a Tournament team when all is said and done. But Kentucky and Tennessee look a class better, and Florida is a solid team as well. And don't forget South Carolina in the battle for third place in the SEC East either. As for Arizona, I don't see how the Maui Invitational is anything but a bust for them. The losses to Wisconsin and Vanderbilt will not be bad losses, since both will be RPI Top 50 teams, but that overtime victory over a bad Colorado team isn't going to do anything for them. The Pac-10 is wide open this season, and there's no reason that Arizona can't finish as high as third, but the Selection Committee is going to want to see out-of-conference victories from Pac-10 teams, since so few quality victories will be available in conference play. The rest of their out-of-conference schedule features UNLV, at Oklahoma, at San Diego State, vs North Carolina State and vs BYU. They've got to win at least three of those games and then avoid any bad losses, or else they'll probably need to go 12-6 or better in the Pac-10. An 11-7 record along with one more loss than I recommended would put them at 19-11 heading into the Pac-10 tournament - it's hard to see how that will be a Tournament resume considering how weak their strength of schedule will possibly be.

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