Saturday, November 14, 2009

Washington Gets Off To A Solid Start

#13 Washington 74, Wright State 69
I know that some people will look at this score and view it as a disappointment for the Huskies, but I watched about half of this game and was encouraged, and still feel good about picking them to win the Pac-10 this year. First of all, Wright State is a good team. In my opinion they're the second best team in the Horizon League (after Butler), and have the potential to steal the Horizon's automatic bid, or to actually make a run at an at-large bid. Second of all, this game was not as close as the final score. Wright State shot the lights out of the building - they were 49% from the field, but so many of those shots were long jumpers. I kept watching that game expecting Washington to blow it open, and constantly was surprised to look at the score and see it still so close. The game felt like a demolition. Now, Washington does have problems. One problem is the lack of size, and we might end up seeing them go with a 4-guard lineup from time-to-time (they went with four guards at several times in this game). In addition, their team defense is weak. They do have a good individual defender in Venoy Overton, but Wright State sliced up Washington's defense by picking Overton off his man and then counting on Washington doing a bad job of defensive rotation... which they often did. But the fact is that there aren't a lot of good big men in the Pac-10 this year, and Washington's chief competition (California) has the same problems: a lack of big men, weak team defense, et cetera. To me, Washington is more athletic than California, and has the ability to play better defense overall. And besides, the Pac-10 is down this year, and might actually contend with the SEC for the worst of the BCS conferences. Washington may not be a serious Final Four contender (and in my opinion, they're not), but they don't have to be a Top Five, or even a Top Ten team to win the Pac-10.

San Diego 77, Stanford 64
I talked about this game about a week ago as a "low hanging fruit as far as BCS opponents go" for San Diego, and they certainly did take care of business. I do still think that San Diego is at best the third best team in the WCC, and that they've got a lot more to prove if they're going to be a bubble team. But if they are going to make noise nationally, they've got to take care of games like this. As for Stanford, this disappointing loss to San Diego is probably symbolic of how this season will go. They just don't have a lot of talent, or a lot of game experience. They're going to be near the bottom of the Pac-10, and I'll be surprised to see them make any postseason Tournament.

Saint Mary's 100, New Mexico State 68
A lot of people assumed that Saint Mary's would disappear from the national scene with the loss of Patty Mills and Diamon Simpson, but the fact is that they still have a lot of talent left. Omar Samhan is still around, as are other quality players that are less well known, like Wayne Hunter and Ben Allen. I don't think they're as good as they were last season, but that doesn't mean that they can't make some noise and get back to the bubble. And while Saint Mary's always plays a lot better at home than on the road, a 32 point demolition has nothing to do with homecourt advantage, and everything to do with just being the better team. As for New Mexico State, I didn't think they had a great chance of contending for the Tournament to begin with, and this result suggests I was right. Their ceiling is probably third place in the WAC, as they just don't look to be nearly as good as Nevada or Utah State.

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