Amazing Illinois Comeback

Illinois 76, #19 Clemson 74
This victory for Illinois is almost inexplicable. I watched most of the first half of this game, and Illinois wasn't even in good shape before Demetri McCamey went to the bench with three fouls, but after that happened this wasn't even a contest. The Clemson lead got as high as 23 points early in the second half, and it even seemed worse than it was - Illinois could not buy a basket without McCamey in there. What makes the comeback even more amazing is that McCamey didn't even really do much in the second half because he was tentative with four fouls (only two points for the entire game, although he did have seven assists). Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale were pretty good inside, but they're usually a fairly good combo. What stood out for me was the outstanding guard play of true freshmen Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson (a combined 34 points on 10-for-19 shooting, including 6-for-11 behind the arc). Both were good recruits, but neither was a truly elite blue chipper, so it's surprising to see how good they've both gotten so early in this season. The knock on Bruce Pearl [ed. this should say Bruce "Weber"]used to be that he couldn't recruit, but he seems to have a good backcourt in place for the next few years, even after McCamey leaves. As for Clemson, this is a heartbreaking loss at home. Once again we're seeing how hard it is to open things up for Trevor Booker. The Clemson backcourt is good, and could become very good as Noel Johnson develops throughout this season, but their frontcout (other than Booker) is very mediocre. If they're struggling with the Illinois big men then they're really going to struggle with the big men on the elite ACC teams. Overall Clemson now only has a win over Butler on their out-of-conference resume (although they get a shot against South Carolina tomorrow), but they have no bad losses either. So they've got a Tournament quality out-of-conference resume. A 9-7 ACC record will lock them into the NCAA tournament at the very least.

Miami (Fl) 63, Minnesota 58
Minnesota continues to struggle with these close losses, but I'll continue to insist that they're a good team. Here are some stats: Sagarin gives them an ELO_CHESS ranking of 70th, and a PREDICTOR of 11th, and Pomeroy ranks them 7th overall. It's still too early to have total confidence in the computer rankings, but it's hard to argue with numbers like that: they are a Top 25 team that has just been snake bit. It's hard to see them not going something like 12-6 or 11-7 during Big Ten play. That said, they do have problems, namely the lack of a go-to guy. Last season they were very clutch in close games, but I think the pressure of expectations is hurting this time around. They need a player to lean on late in games, and right now I don't know who that is. Pomeroy rated gave them a luck rating of 90th last season, and 341st this season, which is all you need to know about their play in the clutch (despite the name, the Pomeroy "luck" rating has more to do with clutch play than anything else since it rates how many more or less wins you have compared to what you should based on your overall play). As for Miami, they're happy to benefit from Minnesota's struggles, because this will go down as a really nice win on their resume in March. Freshman Durand Scott led the way with 20 points here, and is really starting to come into his own. The Hurricanes are now 8-0, but this is their first win against a real team. And with only patsies left on the out-of-conference schedule, Miami will end up with a good overall record this season, the question is what their computer numbers will look like. They open up their ACC season against Boston College tomorrow (believe it or not, some conferences have actually been playing intra-conference games for about a week now), so we'll get an early sense of whether Miami can continue this play against more than one good team.

Boston College 62, Michigan 58
Speaking of Boston College, they continue to prove that this might not be the rebuilding year that most everybody thought this would be. Both Corey Raji and Reggie Jackson have improved greatly over last season, and seem to be flourishing now that Tyrese Rice is not dominating the ball. This win comes on the heels of a win over Providence, and their two losses (against Northern Iowa and St. Joseph's) aren't going to be bad losses. They have a number of decent opponents left on the their out-of-conference resume (Rhode Island, UMass, South Carolina and Harvard - don't forget what Harvard did last year), which will strengthen their computer numbers should they take care of business. As for Michigan, it's a good thing that they get to play Arkansas-Pine Bluff today, because they now have three straight losses, against three teams that are decent but not exactly great. I think it's mental more than anything, as their team shooting has been atrocious even though they've got a bunch of good shooters on the roster. They head to Kansas in a couple of weeks, but nobody expects a win there. The question for Michigan will be getting on track by winning the rest of their out-of-conference games (including a tricky one at Utah on Wednesday night). They start Big Ten play at Indiana on December 31st.