Is USC A Tournament Team?

I have three more game recaps for games from Christmas and earlier, and I'm going to take them out of order to talk about this intriguing USC team first:

USC 67, #20 UNLV 56
It's hard to think of another transfer in the nation (other than Wesley Johnson at Syracuse) who has had more of an impact than Mike Gerrity, who has completely changed the psyche of this USC team since gaining his eligibility (this was his fourth game for USC). His first game was that big upset of Tennessee, which we all assumed was just a fluke game where Tennessee couldn't hit a shot to save their lives. Then a four point squeaker over Western Michigan and an upset of St. Mary's seemed to suggest that they'd found a higher ceiling, but not one that would get them anywhere near the NCAA Tournament. But with this win, we might need to raise that ceiling. Gerrity's impact doesn't completely show in the boxscore (his 13 points and 3 assists here look pedestrian), but he is the clear floor leader, and not only does he create offense for his teammates, but his teammates just play all around better basketball with him on the floor. All of last year's leadership left the team, the recruiting class fled the scene over the summer, so this team was listless until now. And suddenly those close victories that they pulled out over the likes of UC Riverside and Idaho State are huge, because they didn't murder their at-large chances with Gerrity in street clothes. They are 8-4 with two quality wins and only two bad losses (Loyola Marymount and Nebraska). It can be argued that USC has played better than every Pac-10 team other than Cal or Washington since Gerrity has been playing, and we'll find out if this play continues later this week when they open up Pac-10 play at home against Arizona and Arizona State. As for UNLV, they are now 12-2, but those wins over Louisville and Arizona are pretty far in the rear view mirror, and they've missed their chance to really have an overpowering resume by losing to the last two quality opponents they've played (Kansas State and USC). They are now going to need something like an 11-5 Mountain West record just to make the NCAA Tournament, and something like a 13-3 if they're going to contend for a seed in the 4-7 range. On the plus side, they have a fairly young starting lineup by the standards of their last few seasons that is still learning to play together, and they should improve their play throughout the year.

Missouri 81, Illinois 68
Missouri has really flown under the radar this season because of all of the players they've lost, and because they have had an underwhelming out-of-conference schedule, but they've still got the likes of JT Tiller and Kim English, and Mike Anderson can turn just about any team into something dangerous with his high intensity press, so Missouri is still at least a bubble team. Illinois is the best team they've beaten this year, although that 39 point whooping of Oregon is probably the most impressive win. That is all balanced by a weak loss (Oral Roberts). They will need some quality wins to have a Tournament resume, but they'll get their chances in Big 12 play. They open with a big home game against Kansas State on January 9th, and will likely have to finish 10-6 to have a good shot at a Tournament bid. As for Illinois, I think their disappointing season has to do with a nonexistent bench. Alex Legion has been a bust, and their best bench player in this game was actually Jeffrey Jordan. Teams are focusing all of their defensive energy on Demetri McCamey, and their other players just are not explosive enough offensively to score a lot of points. They are only going to win games when they rebound well and play solid defense, and hold their opponents to 65 points or less. I don't see how this Illinois team will put up 80 points on anybody other than cupcakes. They are now 8-4 with two quality wins (Clemson and Vanderbilt), but three bad losses (Bradley, Georgia and Utah), and will have to win against Gonzaga on January 2nd to get much of anything from their out-of-conference schedule. On the plus side, the Selection Committee looks more kindly upon a team that gets a lot of nice wins with bad losses than a team that beats up on an easy schedule with no good wins or bad losses.

BYU 88, Nebraska 66
This has been a good week for BYU, with both UNLV and New Mexico losing games, and with this very nice thumping of Nebraska. BYU played out of their minds, shooting 61% from the field. Their backcourt of Jackson Emery and Jimmer Fredette torched Nebraska's backcourt, getting to the rim at will. They are now 12-1 with some decent-but-not-great wins (Arizona State, Nevada, Nebraska), but a decent loss as well (at Utah State). They have a very important game tonight at Arizona, which will likely be their toughest game of the season thus far. They then play a creampuff before a very important home game against UNLV to open up Mountain West play. If they can beat Arizona then they'll probably be a Tournament lock if they can get to 11-5 in the Mountain West. If they go 10-6 or 9-7 then it will depend on who they beat, when they beat them, and how they play in the Mountain West tournament. As for Nebraska, they have some decent young talent, although some of it isn't playing at the moment. The Big 12 is too good for a team like Nebraska to go better than .500, so this season will be about building for next year. Despite some good young players, they've got to recruit better athletes to hang with the big boys in the Big 12.