Saturday, December 19, 2009

Looking Ahead To Saturday Afternoon

Despite the slow week to this point, there are a lot of good games today. Here is a quick heads up on some of the key games that I'll be paying attention to this afternoon (all times eastern time):

Noon: Michigan at #1 Kansas - On paper this seems like a blowout, but let's recall the two big upsets that Michigan pulled last year despite not being any better than they are this year. And Kansas has to be softened up because they've played a joke of a schedule (Sagarin rates their schedule 296th thus far). This might actually be their toughest opponent so far. Kansas is the best team in the country and is far better than Michigan, so this could be a blowout, but don't be shocked to see Michigan play this game close.

2PM: #10 North Carolina at #2 Texas - I don't need to explain this one. For North Carolina, they struggle most against teams with good backcourts, and Texas has one. For Texas, they've played a pretty soft schedule. They've played only one team in my most recent BP65, and that's Long Beach State. We'll see if UNC's tougher schedule has toughened them up for a game like this.

2PM: Xavier at #17 Butler - An important game for both teams. There is a huge logjam at the top of the Atlantic Ten, and not all of those teams can make the NCAA Tournament, so it's important for a team like Xavier to get separation from teams like Temple and Rhode Island. They can do that with conference wins, but also with big out-of-conference wins like Butler. As for Butler, every game like this matters. They won't see a team as good as Xavier during their entire conference regular season, and they need to prove that the win over the Evan Turner-less Ohio State Buckeyes was not a fluke.

4PM: #15 Gonzaga at #7 Duke - Again, I don't need to explain this one. A win here along with a loss by UNC might make Duke the new favorite to win the ACC. Gonzaga, of course, is in the same position as Butler: they've got to keep winning games over big teams before they get into conference play.

4PM: Western Kentucky at Louisville - Louisville has had two mediocre losses so far this season, but they also had two mediocre losses early last season before getting to #1 in the country. Pitino often has his teams start slow and finish strong. But if they can't take care of business against a dangerous Western Kentucky team then they will start falling so far behind the pace of the top Big East teams that they might never catch up.

6PM: Memphis at UMass - Memphis is a big question mark right now. They haven't beaten anybody good yet, but that's mostly been because of a soft schedule. And the computer think that they're better than they've been playing: Sagarin's ELO_CHESS puts them 53rd and his PREDICTOR puts them 13th, and Pomeroy has them 7th. If they're really that good then they'll take care of a UMass team that has struggled since Travis Ford left.

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