Saturday, January 23, 2010

Killer Loss For Minnesota

#7 Michigan State 65, Minnesota 64
This was a brutal loss for Minnesota in a number of different ways. For one, it seemed like they had this in hand, leading by about ten points most of the way and never trailing at all until the final 90 seconds of the game. They allowed Kalin Lucas to get loose, who despite struggling for many of the recent Michigan State games managed to go for a game-high 22 points here. Michigan State constantly hit clutch three-pointers (including the shot by Lucas to give the Spartans their first lead with 1:27 left), combing for 46% as a team for the game. But while I can keep going through the reasons that Michigan State pulled this game out, the real story is that this is a game that Minnesota was supposed to win, and you have to start wondering whether this team will ever get their act together. All season long, Sagarin and Pomeroy have insisted that this team is much better than their ranking, with Pomeroy giving them a Luck rating of 332nd in the nation coming into this game (it will get even worse with this one-point loss). But sometimes teams just never win close games (like Georgetown and Georgia Tech last season) and that is looking more and more like the case for a Minnesota team that has certainly had the type of off-court distractions that can affect teams in this way. They are now 3-4 in the Big Ten play, although the toughest part of their Big Ten schedule is over with already. I'd still be very surprised if they miss the NCAA Tournament, but I don't see any way that Minnesota finishes higher than fifth in the final conference standings. As for Michigan State, they are entering a very tough part of their schedule, but they now have quite a buffer between them and their chief challengers for the Big Ten title. They have a 2 1/2 game lead over second placed Wisconsin, and are at least three games ahead of the two teams that I believe have the best chance to challenge for that regular season title (Ohio State and Purdue). Unless they really fall apart on the road (six of their next nine are on the road) they are solid favorites to win the regular season crown.

Alabama 62, Mississippi State 57
Give a lot of credit to Alabama's perimeter defense, which completely shut down Mississippi State's three-point shooting game. They came into this one hitting 40.2% as a team from behind the arc, good for 22nd best in the nation, and shot only 2-for-18 here. As good as Jarvis Varnado is defensively, he's not a potent offensive force, so when Mississippi State isn't hitting their threes they just are not a good scoring team. The Bulldogs backcourt did a good job of getting to the hoop and to the line, which kept this game close, but in the end it was not enough. This is a really tough loss for a Mississippi State team firmly on the bubble. They are still leading the SEC West, but at 3-1 their lead has shrunk. They're 15-4 overall, but against a soft schedule. Their best win of the season is over Ole Miss, they have a bad loss to Rider, and this loss drops their RPI out of the Top 50. Sagarin and Pomeroy are more positive about their chances, and I agree that they'll more likely than not be a Tournament team, but they no longer have a lot of room to spare. If the season ended now they'd be one of the last teams in the field. Alabama, meanwhile, is starting to make a little bit of at-large noise, but they're still pretty far away from being a serious contender. Their RPI has finally moved inside the Top 100, but the only win they've had all year better than this was over Baylor, but they're an awful 5-7 against the RPI Top 200. I can't see them even being in contention for an at-large bid on Selection Sunday unless they finish at least 10-6 in the SEC. This win moves them to 2-3.

Virginia Tech 63, Boston College 62
This was the type of game that Virginia Tech kept losing last season. Last season they went 0-5 in games decided by two points or less. This year they're 2-0. And that is the reason why they went to the NIT last season, yet might just sneak into the NCAA Tournament field this season. They've played a very soft schedule so far (Pomeroy rates their out-of-conference schedule at 328th in the nation, and their ACC schedule so far has been pretty soft by ACC standards), but a 15-3 record is still very impressive. Their RPI is still outside the Top 75, but that will rise naturally as their schedule strength improves. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be around 35th when it comes out tomorrow, which means that they'd be in the NCAA Tournament field if the season ended now (the ELO_CHESS is a much better projector of NCAA bid status than the RPI). But they have to prove that they can keep winning as their schedule toughens, and they get two tough road tests next week: Virginia and Miami. As for Boston College, they came into this game off a quality win at Miami, and could potentially have clawed their way into the at-large discussion with a win here, but this just is not their season. They are 2-4 in the ACC with a brutal next few weeks, so they're going to have to pull several upsets to make any noise at all.

No comments: