Saturday, January 30, 2010

Texas Loses Again

Baylor 80, #6 Texas 77, OT
Anthony Jones hit an impressive, clutch layup as time was expiring in regulation to send this one to overtime. A.J. Jones then hit three free throws in the final fifteen seconds of overtime to end this game. Both teams had a lot of foul trouble, but Baylor had it worse with leading scorer LaceDarius Dunn fouling out with more than four minutes left in regulation. At the time Texas had just fought back from a double-digit second half deficit to tie the game, and it just seemed like they were finally going to put the Bears away. But Texas has lost three of their last four games, and they've done it by just not hitting the big shot, not making the big stop, and losing that confidence that they had when they were 17-0. Texas now falls two full games behind Kansas and will potentially fall all the way out of the Top Ten in the polls on Monday, but the bigger issue is righting the ship with several more tough games coming before they get a breather: at Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma, vs Kansas. As for Baylor, this win only moves them to 3-3 in the Big 12, but they're an impressive 7-3 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Oklahoma State, Xavier and now Texas. Their RPI is up to 27th, and their Sagarin rating will be up around 20th when the new numbers come out tomorrow morning. They certainly look in good position to make only their third NCAA Tournament in more than half a century.

Missouri 95, Oklahoma State 80
When Missouri is playing like this they're almost impossible to beat. They always force a lot of turnovers (Oklahoma had 22 of them in this game), but they also shot 17-for-31 from behind the arc here. When they're scoring efficiently, with the high pace of their games, it's really difficult for their opponents to stay calm. This win moves them to 4-2 in the Big 12 with a relatively easy upcoming schedule, so they're in a good position to really move up the standings. For Oklahoma State this loss drops them to 4-3 with a big home game against reeling Texas coming up next. They are 16-5 overall, including 4-5 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS rating of 31st. At this point they're probably sixth in the Big 12 pecking order (behind Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Missouri and Baylor), but the Big 12 will get at least six Tournament teams this season, and Oklahoma State would definitely be a Tournmament team if the season ended now. If they can finish 4-5 to get to 8-8 in the Big 12 they should earn an at-large bid.

Washington 92, Washington State 64
This game was actually pretty close for the first 25 minutes, but Washington end this game on an insane 56-23 run. Despite the high number of points scored the key was actually Washington's defense, which completely shut down Wazzu's offense. They were particularly impressive in shutting Klay Thompson down with seven points on 2-for-15 shooting, by far his worst game of the season (he was averaging over 22 points per game heading into this one). This was a key game for a Washington team that actually entered this game in a tie for last place in the Pac-10, although it was with a 3-5 record. With as jumbled as the Pac-10 is, a 12-6 record might be enough for a share of the regular season title. Over the next two weeks they will play the two teams that are most likely to challenge them for the Pac-10 title (Arizona State and Cal), so they still have a realistic shot to claw their way back into serious contention. As for Washington State, despite this loss they might still have the third best NCAA Tournament resume of any postseason-eligible Pac-10 team, but that isn't saying a whole lot this season. They are now 14-7 overall, including 7-7 against the RPI Top 200 with a Sagarin rating near 100th in the nation. They will have to win at least six of their final nine Pac-10 games to have any kind of a shot at an at-large bid.

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