Sunday, January 31, 2010

W-6 BP65

Six weeks until Selection Sunday. Only about four weeks until conference tournaments begin. The next BP65 will be out a week from now, after next Saturday night's games. But after that I will begin posting new BP65s twice weekly, after Wednesday night's games and after Saturday night's games.

For the time being, here's how I see things ending up:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. Texas
2. Syracuse
2. Michigan State

3. West Virginia
3. Georgetown
3. Ohio State

4. Tennessee
4. Kansas State

5. Georgia Tech
5. Missouri
5. North Carolina

6. Pittsburgh
6. Clemson
6. Wisconsin

7. Washington
7. Wake Forest
7. Baylor

8. Vanderbilt
8. BYU
8. Xavier
8. UConn

9. Florida
9. Louisville
9. Mississippi
9. Cincinnati

10. Minnesota
10. Maryland
10. Oklahoma State
10. Mississippi State

11. Texas A&M
11. UNLV
11. Arizona State

12. Illinois
12. Florida State





Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Dayton, Richmond, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Northwestern, UAB, Tulsa, Wichita State, San Diego State, Saint Mary's

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Charlotte, Marquette, Seton Hall, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, VCU, UTEP, Arizona, South Carolina, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Boston College, NC State, Virginia, Saint Louis, Providence, St. John's, South Florida, Michigan, Iowa State, George Mason, Northeastern, William & Mary, Marshall, Harvard, Iona, Illinois State, Missouri State, Oregon, Washington State, Alabama, Georgia, Portland, Nevada

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Duquesne, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, George Washington, DePaul, Rutgers, Northern Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, Colorado, Nebraska, Pacific, Houston, Southern Miss, UW-Green Bay, Wright State, Akron, Bradley, Creighton, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Colorado State, Utah, UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU


Anonymous said...

UNC may not make the tournament and you have them off a 5 seed. Do you watch college basketball?

Jeff said...

No, I've never watched college basketball. What is it?

Anonymous said...

Cal and UNC 5 seeds. what a joke.

SF just beat Gonzaga at home. BYU shalacked SF by 25. Explain by you have the Zags a 3 seed and BYU with only a 8 (only blog on the entire matrix) while everyone else has BYU at 3 or 4

DMoore said...

Sigh. OK, let's talk about UNC again.

They are absolutely the definition of a bubble team. They have lost 5 of their last 7 games, and three of those were home games in conference. They simply add up to less than the sum of their parts, and Roy has pretty much run out of time to seriously change that. This is just not one of his better coaching jobs -- other teams in the conference are doing a much better job of improving and overcoming injuries.

They were blown out at home by 15 against Virginia tonight, in a game that was in NO WAY as close as the final score. I do think he has learned something about his team, as Ginyard was benched for the last 4 minutes in favor of Strickland, until the final minute or two when he threw in the towel and pulled his starters.

Ken Pom predicts them to go 2-8 their remaining 10 regular season games. I see them doing better than that, and going 4-6. I do not see any possibility of them doing better than 5-5, which would bring them up to 7-9 in conference. It's highly unlikely they will get to that point, and even if they do, they would need a strong finish in the ACC tournament to get on the right side of the bubble.

Cal as a 5 seed isn't unreasonable at all. Ken Pom has them rated at 21st, and they have already had all four Washington and Arizona away games. They will likely be favored in every game they have remaining.

BYU should get more love. They will also be favored in every remaining game, with only 1 remaining top 100 away game (UNLV). They should end up with a strong rating, ranking, and record, so they should get a good seed.

Jeff said...

DMoore, as I explained my reasoning before, I'm saying that North Carolina may be a bubble team at the moment, but they will not be at the end of the season. Let's recall where this team was in November and December when they handled Michigan State at home and Ohio State on a neutral court, and lost by two points at Kentucky. When the team is playing well they're as good as any team on the nation.

Psychologically they're in a tailspin right now, and the reason that I don't just regurgitate the Pomeroy ratings is because computers aren't capable of asking how good a team might be, they can only judge the performances so far, and UNC has had a bunch of bad ones in a row. I believe Pomeroy even weights for recent performances, which means he overrates the bad slide they're in and underrates the good play earlier.

At some point things will click again for them, and maybe it will take until Tyler Zeller comes back. But I just can't believe that at some point in February the Tar Heels won't win four or five games in a row, maybe knocking off Duke in the process, and suddenly we'll be inundated by "North Carolina is back, baby!" stories. And since the Selection Committee weights end-of-season games most, that winning streak will be weighted more than some losing streak that happened all the way back in January.

It's a long season, and it's a mistake to think that trends going on now must continue forever.

Anonymous said...

Vandy an 8 seed? Do you even OWN a television?

Anonymous said...

I can't even remember the last time I had UNC in on the bracket matrix. Yet these clowns still have them as a five? Just makes no sense...they might not even go 6-10 in conference for crying out loud!

But just to talk about something other than UNC, how you don't have URI in is almost just as puzzling. 17-3, 5-2 A10 with a current RPI of 11 and projected end of season at 24. Mind boggling.

(CB on bracket matrix btw)

Jeff said...

If I was rating teams where I think they'd be if the season ended now I'd probably have Rhode Island in and North Carolina out also. But again, let's remember how the Tar Heels played in November and December. They're in a psychological rut right now, but I just can't believe they won't get out of it. Everybody else always over-extrapolates based on temporary losing streaks or winning streaks. I prefer to not go overboard every time a team goes hot or cold, even if it's for a few weeks.

And Rhode Island is rated 66th by Pomeroy and has a Sagarin PREDICTOR of 62nd. They're 8-3 in games decided by 6 points or less. They have one very tough games left that I think they'll lose (at Temple), and they have a couple of other tough games that they may or may not lose (vs Richmond, vs St Louis, vs Charlotte, at UMass). I figure they're likely to finish either 10-6 or 11-5 in the A-10. Assuming that they don't win the A-10 tournament that means they'll have 7 or 8 losses without any really good wins (their best win is over Oklahoma State). Rhode Island may still make the Tournament, but they're not as obvious as you think they are.

Anonymous said...

Vandy and BYU-8 seeds????? both are in the top 15 nationally.

Butler a 4 seed????

UNC and Cal. 5 seeds, neither will make the Dance.

You have no cred...............

while I am at it. Duke and Texas not 2 seeds. Come on

Old Prospector said...

your "predictive" model has vandy finishing with an 8 seed? what type of final SEC record would be needed to get an 8 seed? 9-7? 10-6? they already have 3 wins on the road in the SEC, will probably lose no more than 1 game at home, if that. 11-5 is probably the worst case for them.
11-5 is probably a 6 seed.

goroshnik said...

Please, Jeff, look beyond the front of the UNC jerseys for once and see them are who they really are... a bubble team.

So they have two big wins. They also have SIX top-50 losses, and are now just 5-8 against the RPI top 100.

If you're in the business of rewarding teams on how good they MIGHT be, instead of how good teams ACTUALLY ARE, I suggest you change businesses.

Anonymous said...

so you use URI's bad computer numbers as a reason to leave them out, yet UNC's computer numbers are just as bad, and yet they are a 5 seed? sweet logic dude.


DMoore said...

OK, let's be specific. UNC is currently 13-8 and 2-4 in conference. They need to finish at least 18-13 and 7-9 to have a shot at an at large bid. That means they have to do at least this in their final 10 games:
@VA Tech Win
@Maryland Lose
Duke Lose
NC State Win
@GA Tech Lose
@ Boston College Win
Florida State Win
@ Wake Forest Lose
Miami Win
@Duke Lose

I don't think they're good enough to do that. Their games show me that they don't have as much talent as everyone was hoping they had. And I say hoping, because none of their players had ever been (or had to be) a critical player on a college team in the past.

But to be a 5 seed, I think they would need to finish 8-2 in their last 10 games (and do well in the ACC tourney), to bring them to 21-10 and 10-6 in conference. I don't see how a team that is 2-7 against the Top 50 teams, with 4 straight losses to Top 50 teams where 3 of those were blowouts, can magically turn that around and pull that off. There's just not enough time left on the clock for that kind of comeback.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, Rhode Island's RPI of 11 certainly isn't good enough to make the field of 65. Better off having Arizona State in there as an you know that James Harden isn't there this year and that they are having a less than impressive year? What a waste of internet space this site is.