Sunday, January 17, 2010

W-8 BP65

This is the first week with the full bubble. From here on out I will list every team with any possible chance of an at-large bid. If your team is not listed in this post then they will not earn an at-large bid, and you probably know that. Each new BP65 from here on out will have some of those teams cut out, as we finally cut it down to the final 65, plus a few leftovers just in case I missed one of those 65. For this week, however, there will be close to 100 teams that will still potentially end up on the bubble at some point this season:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. Texas
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)

2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. GONZAGA (WCC)

3. North Carolina
3. West Virginia
3. Michigan State
3. Georgetown

4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. WASHINGTON (PAC 10)
4. Clemson
4. Ohio State

5. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
5. Missouri
5. Wisconsin
5. Tennessee

6. UConn
6. Kansas State
6. Pittsburgh
6. Florida

7. California
7. Georgia Tech
7. Arizona State
7. Louisville

8. Mississippi State
8. Minnesota
8. Wake Forest
8. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)

9. Cincinnati
9. Xavier
9. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
9. BYU

10. Vanderbilt
10. Baylor
10. Texas A&M
10. Mississippi

11. UNLV
11. Illinois
11. Miami (Fl)
11. Dayton

12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
12. Maryland
12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

13. CORNELL (IVY)
13. LOUISIANA TECH (WAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)

14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)

15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Florida State, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Rhode Island, Marquette, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, William & Mary, UAB, Tulsa, Wichita State, San Diego State, Saint Mary's

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
NC State, Charlotte, St. John's, Seton Hall, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, VCU, Marshall, UTEP, Illinois State, Missouri State, Arizona, Washington State, Alabama, South Carolina, Utah State

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Boston College, Virginia, Duquesne, La Salle, George Washington, Saint Louis, Providence, South Florida, Penn State, Iowa State, Nebraska, Northeastern, Houston, UW-Green Bay, Harvard, Iona, Creighton, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Colorado State, Utah, Oregon, Stanford, Georgia, Portland, Nevada

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
St. Bonaventure, UMass, DePaul, Rutgers, Northern Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, Pacific, George Mason, UCF, Southern Miss, Detroit, Loyola-Chicago, Wright State, Fairfield, Akron, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Bradley, TCU, UCLA, Oregon State, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Fresno State

10 comments:

DMoore said...

I think you can move Boston College down to the "Need a Miracle" category. Way too many bad losses.

I'd move VA Tech down to the Decent Resumes category. No bad losses, but no solid wins.

I think Florida State is good enough to make the field, but I understand the ranking because I don't see which team I would remove to make room for them (Illinois?). From a prediction point of view I think FSU will do better in the ACC than Miami, despite their lack of offense.

Do you really think Louisville is a 7 seed? They have no solid wins yet, and 2 bad losses.

Anonymous said...

Why isn't Northwestern in the field?? They have solid wins against nc state, notre dame, iowa state, michigan and purdue, and their losses are from illinois, butler, michigan state and wisconsin, which are all teams in your current top 65…their only blowout loss was at michigan state…How are they not in so far??

Jeff said...

I will agree with both of you to an extent. If the season ended right now, Florida State and Northwestern would be in the Tournament, and Louisville would be something like a 10-11 seed.

But I've made my case for Florida State. I do agree that Miami can easily play themselves out of things, but I'm still keeping Florida State out of the field until their offense improves.

And Northwestern is a very good team, but I'm making this call based on their team history the last few years. They beat big teams every year (didn't they win AT Michigan State last season?), but there's a reason why they have never made the NCAA Tournament. If they can survive the next couple of weeks without a bad loss then I'll probably move them into the bracket, but not until then.

And as for Louisville, I'm making this call based on two things. First of all, Pitino's teams always improve dramatically throughout the season. I can't think of any other coach whose teams so consistently look horrible in November and then look great in February. Their improvement this season has been somewhat obscured by two consecutive close losses to Pitt and Villanova, but I watched pieces of both of those games, and Louisville looks to me like a team ready to go on a run. But as I said, if the season ended now they'd be a bubble team, so I have them seeded high only because I believe they're going to keep playing better.

Anonymous said...

Why is Purdue still a 1 seed, they were blown up by everyone this week. Syracuse should be the 1 seed. Why is Gonzaga a two seed along with Duke, a team that blew them up and ahead of Mich. State a team they lost to?
Pitt is better then a 6, BYU should be a 5 or 4. New Mexico should flip with BYU.

Jeff said...

Purdue is a 1 seed because they are the best team in the Big Ten and I believe they'll win the Big Ten's automatic bid.

The Big East is very unlikely to get two 1 seeds, so for Syracuse to be a 1 seed you have to believe they'll win the Big East title. I think Villanova is the favorite.

I could keep going, but I think you are misunderstanding what this is: it is not about where things stand now, but about where I think things will end up. There's a big difference.

DMoore said...

I was going to ask about Purdue also. I see in the later article that you are still seeing them as the best team in the Big Ten, but I'm wondering why the Big East winner would not finish ahead of them in seeding. Is it because it's too hard to foresee who will end up winning the Big East (too many contenders), or because the Big East winner will have too many losses because of the competition?

Purdue still has to play Wisconsin and Michigan State at home, and at Michigan State, Ohio State and Minnesota. You'd have to project them with at least 5 losses total (3 already), wouldn't you?

Villanova and Syracuse both have only a single loss currently. If one of them wins the Big East, then I think they would have at least as good a record as Purdue and would have won a tougher conference.

Jeff said...

I did debate moving Villanova to the 1 seed, but stuck with Purdue because I think that if they finish strong that people will have long forgotten about this three game losing streak by March.

I think Purdue is due for 13-14 wins in conference, and the Big Ten tournament. They still have a lot of opportunities for big wins.

I think the Big East is going to beat itself up. If Villanova does somehow go 16-2 or something like that in the Big East, and wins the Big East tournament, then they will get the 1 seed over Purdue.

Anonymous said...

How do you justify moving BYU from a 7 seed to a 9 seed after they won blew out 2 teams? I understand that you are basing this on what you think is going to happen, but BYU is the only team in conference without a loss and New Mexico has 2 losses. BYU just got thier leading scorer back from illness and without him playing his normal minutes they beat UTEP on the road, UNLV, and Air Force on the road. 9 seed seems low.

Jeff said...

Well, it was more about moving other teams up than moving BYU back. You are right that BYU's computer numbers are outstanding, and they've certainly rolled through the last couple of weeks. But it's mostly been against weak competition, so I'm not totally sure what to make of them.

If BYU keeps winning, though, they will definitely move up a lot. The Mountain West champion has a chance to be in play for a 3-4 seed. The reason I haven't given one of those seeds to a Mountain West team yet is because I've believed they are going to beat each other up, the way they have the past few years. But maybe this year will be different.

Jeff said...

By the way, let me add that BYU would be something like a 4 seed if the season ended right now. I just find it hard to believe they won't lose a bunch of conference games. It's so difficult to win road games in the Mountain West.