Sunday, January 10, 2010

W-9 BP65

This is the last BP65 before I add the full Bubble. So while I'll include every team with even the slightest chance at an NCAA at-large bid next week, there's a chance that a team that I leave off this week could get on a huge hot streak and get into the bubble picture.

But for the time being, here's how I see things ending up:


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. Texas

2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. West Virginia
2. Michigan State

3. Duke
3. Syracuse
3. Georgetown
3. GONZAGA (WCC)

4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. WASHINGTON (PAC 10)
4. Clemson
4. Wisconsin

5. UConn
5. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
5. Florida
5. California

6. Mississippi State
6. Ohio State
6. Missouri
6. Kansas State

7. BYU
7. Minnesota
7. Louisville
7. Arizona State

8. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
8. Wake Forest
8. Georgia Tech
8. Cincinnati

9. Dayton
9. Tennessee
9. Vanderbilt
9. Xavier

10. Mississippi
10. Baylor
10. Pittsburgh
10. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)

11. UNLV
11. Miami (Fl)
11. Texas A&M
11. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

12. Maryland
12. Illinois
12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

13. CORNELL (IVY)
13. LOUISIANA TECH (WAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)

14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)

15. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Florida State, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Rhode Island, Marquette, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Michigan, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, William & Mary, UAB, Tulsa, Wichita State, San Diego State, Washington State, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Boston College, NC State, Charlotte, George Washington, St. John's, South Florida, Penn State, Iowa State, Nebraska, Oklahoma, VCU, Marshall, UTEP, Illinois State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Oregon, Alabama, South Carolina, Portland, Utah State

Other teams that I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Virginia, Duquesne, Saint Louis, Providence, Colorado, Southern Miss, Wright State, Harvard, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Arizona, UCLA, Stanford, Georgia, LSU, Nevada
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2 comments:

DMoore said...

OK. Regarding the ACC seedings:
1. You can't lose to the College of Charleston, have 3 other losses in non-conference play (even to good teams), lose as many games as you would expect in a conference where you project 7 teams to make the tourney, and still get a 2 seed bordering on a 1 (UNC).
2. Maryland has looked VERY suspect this season, and Florida State has looked pretty solid (at least on defense). I would swap those.
3. You can remove Boston College from even the "Teams with a Decent Shot" category. They will come in last in the ACC this season. Of the bottom tier, Virginia is improving, and NC State has at least some talent. I don't think BC has either of those things going for them.

Baylor is becoming a trendy pick as an underrated team. Have you sen them play, and is that real?

January 10, 2010 1:36 AM
Jeff said...

1) The UNC ranking is assuming they win the ACC. If they lose the ACC then obviously they'll drop and whoever wins the ACC will move up.

2) Maryland has looked suspect, but I'm not sold on Florida State. They are a team that is very athletic, but is horrendous at offensive efficiency in the half court. Teams like that tend to do well against athletically inferior teams, but struggle against teams that can match them athlete-for-athlete. I need to see Florida State win some ACC games before I get on that bandwagon.

3) I debated dropping BC a level, and thought that they still deserve to be above Virginia. But at this point I have them as the second worst team in the ACC. Next week when I have four categories I'm planning on having them in the third. One thing to keep in mind is that they have a 2010 recruit sitting on their bench who is redshirting and they can choose to play if they want (I forget his name at the moment, but he's a guard). If they sense that they have a shot at an at-large bid, they might pull that redshirt and put him in there, and that would immediately improve them.

4) I've been a big Baylor fan since the offseason:

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2009/04/baylor-goes-scavenging-finds-gold.html

I think they're a legitimate contender for third place in the Big 12 (of course, so is Kansas State, Missouri, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State...).

January 10, 2010 3:29 AM

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