Thursday, March 11, 2010

D-3 BP65

There are now just four days left of games, and the last of the conference tournaments begin this coming afternoon. I'm not going to really talk about the bubble right now, because I'll have another post after this where I talk about where the bubble stands now. I know that I'm confusing some people by doing a "where the bubble stands now" post since my BP65s are all projections of where I think things will end rather than where they stand now, but hopefully at least my regular readers will figure it out. Please remember to read About The BP65 to answer any questions that you have about what exactly the BP65 is and how the teams are listed. Also please remember that I've previewed all of the conference tournaments, and those previews can be found here.

Please stay tuned for another post tonight on where the bubble stands. And I'll also be happy to delve into the comments on this post for anything substantive that people want to discuss. One thing to note is that I really struggled to find a last at-large team. I decided to go with Rhode Island because I think they'll beat Saint Louis on Thursday, and because if you don't weigh heavily their "final ten games" (the Selection Committee says they're downgrading that in importance anyway) their total numbers really are not that bad. But most likely that spot will actually be taken by an auto bid, by a team like Nevada or UAB. But I don't feel any better projecting one of those teams getting in than I do projecting Rhode Island. Basically, I can't come up with any team really worthy of that spot, so I picked the least unworthy. Obviously Rhode Island has to win their game over Saint Louis to have any hope of an at-large bid.

For now, here's how I see things ending up:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. DUKE (ACC)

2. Kansas State
2. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
2. West Virginia
2. Ohio State

3. Pittsburgh
3. Villanova
3. Wisconsin
3. NEW MEXICO (MWC)

4. Tennessee
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Michigan State
4. Baylor

5. Maryland
5. Vanderbilt
5. Texas A&M
5. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)

6. BYU
6. Temple
6. Georgetown
6. Texas

7. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
7. Florida State
7. Richmond
7. Louisville

8. Gonzaga
8. Oklahoma State
8. CALIFORNIA (PAC 10)
8. Marquette

9. UTEP
9. Virginia Tech
9. SAINT MARY'S (WCC)
9. Clemson

10. Wake Forest
10. Missouri
10. UNLV
10. Georgia Tech

11. CORNELL (IVY)
11. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
11. Washington
11. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

12. Notre Dame
12. UTAH STATE (WAC)
12. Florida
12. SIENA (MAAC)

13. San Diego State
13. Rhode Island
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)

15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. NORTH TEXAS (SUN BELT)
15. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)

16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
16. ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Illinois, UAB, Wichita State, Arizona State, Mississippi

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Dayton, Cincinnati, Mississippi State

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Seton Hall, Minnesota, Marshall

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Saint Louis, Connecticut, South Florida, Tulsa

12 comments:

Chris said...

Woah...you have Rhode Island in. Interesting...

Jeff said...

It doesn't mean too much, Chris. As I said in this post, I could not figure out who the last time in should be. I expect that spot to be stolen by somebody else, but at this point I just have no idea who. Rhode Island has to win at least one more game to even have a chance because we know that at least one of these bubble teams is going to get hot and jump some teams.

But at this point I'd argue that Rhode Island's resume is still better than the likes of Ole Miss and Illinois, and they also have an easier upcoming schedule, which gives them less of a chance of losing their next game.

Chris said...

Jeff -- That is kind of what I figured. Assuming URI beats St Louis tomorrow afternoon (which is a big assumption with the way they have been playing as of late), I really hope the Bonnies can upset Temple. Temple OWNS Rhode Island, 53-15 all time record. Uggh.

*fingers crossed*

DMoore said...

I see you have Maryland as a 5 seed. Does that assume they get to the ACC finals and lose? Are you thinking that they need to get to the ACC finals to get that high a seed, or would getting there bump that up?

Jeff said...

I actually think Maryland is probably a 5 seed right now. They're either a 5 or a 6. I'm assuming that they have about a 50-50 shot of making the finals. If they make the finals of the ACC tournament and lose a close one to Duke, then depending on what happens with the rest of the bubble I could see Maryland getting as high as a 4.

If Maryland wins the ACC tournament I see them getting a 3.

Anonymous said...

Maryland is a clear four right now. 13-3 in the ACC is huge, especially with a win over Duke.

Missouri and Wake both seem a little low as 10 seeds.

I like UAB over Rhode Island. URI totally collapsed down the stretch, and a win over St. Louis isn't really going to do much for them. They need to make the A10 finals. UAB beat Butler OOC and doesn't have the bad losses the Rhode Island does.

Anonymous said...

Xavier has what, two wins over tournament teams, neither of which are top 25 quality wins. Hard to get a five with a resume like that, imo.

Anonymous said...

Not sure how you can consider UConn still alive...at least put a team like William & Mary in that column.

Jeff said...

UAB is probably going to have to beat Memphis to make the Tournament, and I don't think they will. They're going to need a very, very weak bubble to still get in if they lose to Memphis.

If I'm wrong and they beat Memphis, however, I'm probably moving UAB into the bracket.

Anonymous said...

How is that any different than URI having to beat Xavier to get in???

Memphis = Oops...tried telling you that all year about them. Not sure why everyone thought they were so good. Pastner was not ready for that job.

Jeff said...

If you thought Memphis would lose to Houston you could have bet on it. The computers all had Memphis 6-7 point favorites, so I'm sure the Vegas money-line was upwards of +220 for Houston. A one point loss is a fluke loss, and you cannot gain any information from it. There's a reason why they play the games - nothing is certain. I'm confident that if Memphis plays that game ten times they'd win eight.

And go talk to the Memphis fans, they're all convinced I'm the biggest Memphis hater on the planet.

Although this is good: this year is the first year I've been accused of being too pro-Memphis. I'm hoping to be called too "pro" and too "anti" all 347 teams. I'm getting there...

Jeff said...

Temple a 6 is utterly laughable.