Sunday, March 14, 2010

FINAL BP65

Here's my final guess of the bracket. Some teams moved relative to my last bracket simply because I spent a lot of time today going through all of the resumes again, trying to perfect this as best as I can. In my opinion, the last spot in the bracket comes down to Minnesota vs Florida. Florida has better computer numbers, but I'm giving the edge to Minnesota because of the better finish and because of the better collection of Top 25 wins. The only thing holding Minnesota back is their ELO_CHESS, which is right around 56th-57th, and would be one of the worst we've seen in the field in several years.:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. Syracuse

2. WEST VIRGINIA (BIG EAST)
2. Kansas State
2. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Villanova

3. Baylor
3. Purdue
3. Pittsburgh
3. Georgetown

4. Texas A&M
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
4. New Mexico
4. Tennessee

5. BUTLER (HORIZON)
5. Wisconsin
5. Maryland
5. Vanderbilt

6. Michigan State
6. BYU
6. Texas
6. Xavier

7. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
7. Richmond
7. Marquette
7. Florida State

8. Gonzaga
8. Oklahoma State
8. SAINT MARY'S (WCC)
8. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)

9. Louisville
9. Notre Dame
9. Clemson
9. Wake Forest

10. Missouri
10. Washington (PAC 10)
10. California
10. UNLV

11. UTEP
11. Georgia Tech
11. Utah State
11. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

12. Virginia Tech
12. Minnesota
12. CORNELL (IVY)
12. SIENA (MAAC)

13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
13. OHIO (MAC)

14. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
14. HOUSTON (CONFERENCE USA)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)

15. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
15. NORTH TEXAS (SUN BELT)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)

16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
16. ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF (SWAC)


If I missed somebody on the bubble, these are the most likely teams:
Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Illinois, Wichita State, Florida, Mississippi State

Other more distant possibilities - that could possibly get a bid but probably shouldn't:
Dayton, Cincinnati, South Florida, UAB, Memphis, Arizona State, Mississippi

7 comments:

csuramsfan said...

I think you'll hit 65/65 this year, though I think VT is more likely to miss than Minnesota.

Jeff said...

From your lips to the Selection Committee's ears!

I do agree that Va Tech is the only other team I might miss on.

csuramsfan said...

I think the selection committee was quite drunk while making this abomination of a bracket.

Jeff said...

There are a couple of bizarre things - I wonder if they thought UNLV won the Mountain West tournament?


I'll have more thoughts in a full post. I'll put it up in about an hour.

csuramsfan said...

Nice job hitting 64 out of 65. You missed quite a bit on seeding, but nobody was thinking Tennessee was a 6, SDSU an 11, etc. Odd seeding choices all over the place.

Jeff said...

Well, the seeding skill is usually based on being within 1 line, since the Selection Committee can move a team one seed line in either direction for logistical reasons, and I don't even take into account things like arenas and whether two teams from the same conference are seeded against each other.

And I do think that I nailed right around 48-50 teams within 1 line, which is pretty good. Usually the best anybody gets in 51-53.

I haven't gone through and checked all of the numbers for sure. I leave it up to other websites to calculate stuff like that.

Hubbo said...

Well you placed 30th out of 83 brackets on the matrix. Not bad. A little better than average is better than a little worse than average.

To toot my own horn (and my bracket isn't listed on the matrix), I scored a 316 even though I stupidly left Wofford off of my bracket.