Tuesday, March 16, 2010

More Bracket Analysis Tuesday Night

I think that's enough bracket analysis for one night. I've got to sleep, and I've got to work a full day tomorrow, so the rest of my bracket analysis will have to wait until Tuesday evening. I just wanted to warn people of that so they aren't reloading the page over and over again on Tuesday afternoon waiting for my take on the Midwest bracket. It will be up in the evening.

16 comments:

individually wrapped slices said...

Thanks for all this! I know nothing about basketball but am shooting for my office pool anyways. I'm taking a lot of your suggestions (and a few of my own) and seeing how I come out this year!

You have a well written blog and its actually understandable for noobs like me.

Thanks :D

J.Schmidt said...

Very insightful and detailed analysis. I learned quite a bit.

One team I am having a hard time agreeing with you is Notre Dame...They have been playing very well and also played very well when Harangody was injured. I'm not saying they well go far. But I would be willing to put them past the first round.

Bud said...

Every year I overthink and overanalyze my picks. I end up confusing myself. Your insight is just what I need to get rid of some doubts on teams I am not as familiar with. Thanks for taking the time to share it!

Anonymous said...

Does the fact that you are from Wisconsin have any thing at all to do with you putting them in the Elite Eight?

Will said...

^ ruh roh

Jeff said...

The fact that I've lived in the Wisconsin for the last few years has as much to do with me putting them in the Elite 8 as it does with the fact that I under-seeded them in my final bracket (I gave them a 5 and they got a 4).

Anonymous said...

byu has no chance at beating cuse, they'll be lucky if they get by kansas st.

Anonymous said...

I don't know everything about Wisconsin, hence the reason for asking about you living there. In your analysis it seems like you are slightly pulling for them even when the numbers aren't in their favor. No disrespect.

Jeff said...

Actually, if you go back to last year's bracket analysis I pointed out that the numbers screamed to pick Wisconsin over Florida State, but my gut said that Florida State was the pick, so I warned people against taking Wisconsin even though every number said to take them. The only time I felt so strongly with regards to guts vs numbers in recent years was a couple of years ago when Western Kentucky played Drake, where my gut said Drake but the numbers screamed WKU. Both times the numbers won over gut.

This year the numbers scream Wisconsin over Kentucky. In fact, you can't even make a number-based argument for Kentucky over Wisconsin, the only argument you can make it "John Wall, John Wall, John Wall", and that just doesn't work for me. I've learned my lesson, and I'm always going to go with numbers over gut in the Tournament.

My gut tells me Syracuse and Kentucky should beat BYU and Wisconsin, respectively. But the numbers all scream the opposite, and in years past the numbers have always been a better predictor of future success than gut.

sonicman2006 said...

Awesome stuff Jeff!

I'm like Bud int hat I over think this thing every year. Found your blog this year and I really like your writing and insight into the match-ups over some of the other stuff I've read.

Appreciate it!

Anonymous said...

filthy badgers....I'll be cooking badger burgers after the first round homie

sstroudmd said...

Thank you for all the time involved in producing this analysis. I am going to really enjoy watching the tournament because of your efforts. I am looking forward to your assessment of the Maryland Terrapins. They are fun to watch when they are on!

Anonymous said...

I've tried to find this on your blog but cant. What are your credentials....Have you won an office pool or anything like that? How accurate have you been with this in the past?

Craig said...

Jeff, how did you do last year with your picks? What kind of record did you have?

Anonymous said...

you have great stats and good arguments for your positions. My question is how have you fared in the past years with your brackets?

Jeff said...

For those wondering about my picks in years past you can go back and read my posts from March of 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. I don't know how to quantify "how good have you been."

But here's the thing, I'm not going to tell you what you hear on ESPN, which is something like "I love Ohio State in this game because Evan Turner is just too good." Really? We all know Evan Turner is really good, so what does that tell us? Evan Turner is "too good" in every game, but they can still lose. That's a stupid analysis.

So I'm not going to just pick the winner of all 63 games and tell you to pick the same 63 teams as me. I'm giving you reasoning and stats, and I'm also talking about alternative match-ups so that if you have any realistic Sweet 16 or Elite 8 match-up then I'll have at least a few words about it. So you can judge my facts and stats for yourself, and choose to go with them or not. I don't pretend to see the future: I'm just telling you what the numbers tell me, and what my own eyes tell me.