Friday, March 19, 2010

Thoughts On Day Two

I wanted to throw up a post if people wanted to discuss Day 2. So leave any thoughts you have about a day that (so far) isn't quite living up to Day 1. Just to get things started, here are a few of my thoughts. I'll post more in the comments section for this post - hope to see you there!:


Cornell: Usually you want to bet against the team that everybody is hyping as the best upset pick in round 1. This year the two teams everybody was hyping were Cornell and Siena, and so I intentionally went against them. Upsets generally happen because the higher rated team doesn't take the lower seeded team seriously enough, and you had to figure that Temple and Purdue have heard all week that they were going to lose and would show up. But Temple's defense (rated top ten in the nation) was just torched by Cornell. Cornell was absolutely hitting on all cylinders today - this was even better than they played when they almost beat Kansas. They even managed to keep Jeff Foote from committing a foul, which is important because he has a tendency to get himself in foul trouble, and there are a lot fewer of those open three-pointers when Foote isn't on the floor. If Cornell plays like this on Sunday then they'll give Wisconsin all that they can handle.

Xavier: A very efficient performance from them. They played like the major conference team, while Minnesota was playing wildly undisciplined defense - they were trying to steal every pass and block every shot, rather than just getting themselves in front of people. Minnesota had more Sportscenter highlights, but Xavier played with coolness that comes with a lot of Tournament success the last few years. Occasionally Minnesota gets saved by a big shooting night from Blake Hoffarber, but he was nowhere to be found today. Xavier will now play a weak 3 seed (Pittsburgh) or potentially the 14 seed Oakland (hey, Oakland is better than Ohio, and Pitt is not as good as Georgetown, so anything is possible), so a Sweet Sixteen is a real possibility.

30 comments:

Mark said...

Jeff, as far as Syracuse is concerned- They will be a problem for me and I know Boeheim is reluctant to play any more than 7 guys on this squad for some reason. I don't recall seeing a bracket where the 1 seed had issues, the 2 is very good but plays a tough 2nd round game, the 3is suspect and the 4 is already gone. Going in to making my picks, I felt good about the other 3 regions and feel the "cream will rise to the top" but I labored over making my picks (as you know) in this region.

Jeff said...

Yeah that region is awful. I don't think anybody deserves to go to the Final Four there. You can see why I got onto the BYU bandwagon.


I really wonder what Syracuse will do against Vermont: there's no way they'll only play six guys. They have a couple of guys on the bench who can play.


Onuaku might be out for a while. They keep calling it a "quad" injury, but when it happened it looked to me like a knee injury. I could overhear on the camera that one of his teammates asked if it was a cramp and he shouted back, "No, I heard a pop" and he slammed his fist on the court. It struck me as the type of injury that could keep him out for a while.

CSURamsfan said...

Wisconsin isn't looking like a legit Elite 8 threat at the moment. Will be interesting to see if they can pull it out against these scrappy terriers.

Jeff said...

Wisconsin showed absolutely no sense of urgency in that game against Wofford. They were getting out-worked and out-hustled, and that stretch where Wofford hit nine straight shots from the field made this one a ball game. But you never know what to make of something like that, because so often we see teams come out asleep in their first game before waking up against better opponents.

Kansas, BYU, Wisconsin and Baylor are among the teams that looked bad for a half or longer in their first game, but that I'm still not too worried about. Even West Virginia looked awful for the first ten minutes of their game, but got things together by the half.


In fact, the only elite team that really grabbed hold of a game from the start and choked the life out of it was Kentucky.


One other thought: Missouri did what we expected them to do, they forced 19 turnovers and survived against a much bigger team. They could at least make things difficult for West Virginia on Sunday. I'm not sure if there's another team in the whole country that is more uncomfortable to play against than Mizzou.

Adam said...

Overall, my picks are doing better because of your suggestions, so I can't complain. The one I am kicking myself about is Xavier. It may be true that you can often go with major conference 11 seeds over mid-major 6 seeds. But Xavier has so much tourney experience, I don't think that holds. In any event, you nailed Washington (and many others) so overall, good job so far!

Jeff said...

Yeah, I was regretting that Xavier/Minnesota pick during the game today. It's clear that we should be thinking of Xavier as more of a major conference team than a mid-major at this point.


I think I might have just been jumping at the opportunity to go with a major conference lower seed, because it always works out so well. I couldn't believe that not one of the 12 seeds and only one of the 11 seeds came from a BCS conference. What a weird year...


Last year we had two BCS conference 12 seeds (Wisconsin and Arizona), and both came through. It's the safest upset you can ever pick.

Mark said...

I remember many tournament games that UConn would just blow teams out in the first round and the same holds true with Duke. They ended up getting bounced in the Elite-8 or even the S16. It doesn't bother me that Kansas, Baylor and Wisconsin struggled. It definitely gave me some heartburn but they got through. Matchups and styles are key to games. However, a couple of these 2nd round games are really intriguing. If Wisconsin plays with the same intensity against Cornell, that may be a problem. The same holds true with Kansas and Northern Iowa. #1 seeds get tested a bit in the second round because 8-9 seeds are usually at-large bids from Big Conferences who are formidable teams. Northern Iowa isn't from a big conference but they've been Top-25 caliber all year. I just don't think they are in the same league as the Jayhawks. I'd like to know the overall record of 1 seeds in the 2nd round. We all know they've never lost to a 16 in the 1st round but would like to know how they've done against 8-9s in the 2nd.

Jeff said...

A 1 seed loses a second round game about once every other year. In fact, for a while there we had it going every other year for about an 8 or 9 year stretch.

I actually just went out for a little jog (too much sitting on the couch) and have a few things to take care of, but I'll be back by the time the Utah State/A&M game gets down near the end and I'll go get some stats while I'm watching.

Jeff said...

Okay, I've got the stats. The run of it happening every other year was longer than I thought: From 1989 through 2005 (a 17 year stretch) we had at least one 1 seed lose in the second round on every single even year, while all four 1 seeds made it through to at least the Sweet 16 in every odd year.

If we go back to the beginning of the 64/65 team field in 1985 we have had 25 NCAA Tournaments. In those 25 years, 12 different 1 seeds have lost in the second round. But two stats stand out to me:

1) Between 1990 and 2004, a 15 year straight, we had a 1 seed knocked out in the second round on 10 occasions. From the beginning of the 64/65 team bracket through 2006 we had never gone more than two straight seasons without seeing a 1 seed go out in the second round. Yet we've gone five straight years without it happening now.

2) Of the 12 losses by 1 seeds in the second round, nine of them have come to 8 seeds and only three of them against 9 seeds, despite the fact that 9 seeds actually beat 8 seeds 54% of the time. I actually knew this one before I looked it up, because if you ever look at "expected seed performance" graphs, 8 seeds average more wins than 9 seeds, even though they're more likely to lose in the first round. They're simply a lot more likely to win second and third round games. It's probably a statistical fluke due to the small sample sizes, but it's interesting nonetheless.


So we're in by far the longest drought without a 1 seed going out in the second round. Is this a sign of the times, or are we just far overdue? I think we're just overdue. I can't fathom Kansas losing to Northern Iowa, but I could see the other three top seeds going down. I wouldn't be surprised at all.

Mark said...

Thanks. This tournament has already shocked me more in the 1st day and a half then I would have thought. Did all #1 seeds make the Final 4 last year or was that 2years ago. Just tuned into the Zags game- they played a heavy duty non-conference schedule and posted wins over Wisconsin, Illinois and lost close games to Michigan St., Wake and got blown out by Duke. Why are you so convinced they are going to lose to FSU?

Jeff said...

Pomeroy gives FSU a 69% chance of winning, and Sagarin has them as a 3-4 point favorite. Both are about as big as I can recall for an 8/9 game.

The main reason is FSU's defense, which is the best in the nation. And Gonzaga has actually played poor offense against good teams all season long (I detailed that in my NCAA Tournament previews... you can look at the exact stats there). I figured that unless Gonzaga shot out of their mind from deep (which they've done over the first ten minutes of this game, mind you) they would score under 60 points and would probably lose.

In addition, Gonzaga has played much better in the NCAA Tournament over the last 15 years as the underdog than as the favorite. And when in doubt in 8/9 games, take the 9 since they win more often. So all of those things together made Florida State the big favorite.

It's not a good start, but it's still pretty early on.

Justin said...

Yea Jeff, I went with FSU cause of your advice but did it reluctantly. I understood what you were saying as far as being a superb defensive team and I know "defense wins championships" but you do have to score and thats someting FSU does struggle with. Not that FSU will win a championship either. I think they can hold a team under 60 like you said but would have a hard time scoring over 50. Your thoughts? Still like the blog and am still trusting your opinion.

Jeff said...

Well the game's not over yet, but if Gonzaga wins it would certainly be the surprise of the day. Gonzaga has shot very well from outside (53% shooting as a team, and most of it has been in the form of jump shots), while Florida State can't hit a shot (2-for-13 behind the arc, 35% overall shooting from the field).


I still think FSU has a run in them. But this is where their bad offense is a liability, and the fact that they don't have "spurt-ability". FSU plays better from the lead than behind - no question.

Mark said...

At this point in the night, the Zags are a tougher team than I thought and with St. Mary's winning yesterday, maybe their conference wasn't a cream-puff. I think the Zags travel real well and they'll play anybody which is helping them. Don't know too much about FSU but the ACC was pretty average this year without UNC being dominant and BC being terrible. Looks like the lead is 5now...Hope Tech can pull it out here.

Jeff said...

I think the FSU/Gonzaga game is actually proving that FSU was the right pick, even though they're probably going to lose. Basically, this could not have gone better for Gonzaga. They're banking in three-pointers, they've made five of their last six free throws while FSU is missing the front ends of one-and-ones... and after all of that it's a 5 point game with a couple of minutes left.

The computers said FSU had about a 70% chance of winning, which is the widest gap for an 8/9 game in some time. And that even discounts the fact that Gonzaga has historically disappointed in games where they're the better seed, and the psychological advantage that 9 seeds always have on 8 seeds.

Mark said...

I'm only getting the Ga Tech/OSU game here so I haven't been able to see the Zags game. Michigan St. has some issues too. Right now, I see they're losing and their is plenty of time left but they've had the same on-court/off-cort problems that Villanova and Georgetown have- inconsistent, discipline stuff, etc. Hope that pick doesn't bite me/

Jeff said...

What is going on in that Michigan State game? I watched most of the first half and it looked like a romp, and now I've been switching between the FSU/Zags game and the OSU/GT game and somehow Michigan State has blown their whole lead. What the heck is going on there?

Mark said...

No idea with the MSU game. I'm getting the Tech/OSU game and caught the end of the Zags game. Looks like the Aggies made their move.....can't believe Izzo hasn't had a coronary by now. I can't figure that team out to save my life.

Jeff said...

That Georgia Tech game is that one game every season that makes you figure that you might as well pick teams out of a hat next year. Georgia Tech is a 64.2% free throw shooting team on the season, and then they go and shoot 24-for-25 tonight??

Between that game and the Gonzaga game, today might have more crazy results than yesterday. Despite all the crazy finishes yesterday, the only real surprising result was the Georgetown loss. The Gonzaga and Georgia Tech wins, on the other hand, are pretty big shockers.

Anonymous said...

overall, i'm glad i took your advice for the most part on my bracket, i've never done so well before...so for that i thank you...you can't get upset over the variance, just like in poker, alot of the time the correct play (or pick in this case) doesn't have the outcome you envision due to that, but it doesn't discount the fact that it was the correct pick, who would've expected the best FG% Defensive team in the country would've let the Zags steamroll them they way they did in the first half...so overall i'm really happy...i hope BYU scores me some points as the tourny progresses, we shall see...and P.S., slightly unrelated...is there a more exciting announcer than Gus Johnson? lol

Jeff said...

Well there is certainly variance. Anybody who had 16-out-of-16 after the first day wasn't as good as they were lucky. But today has been a crazy day.

It looks like I'll end up 12-4 again today (unless Houston pulls a shocker tonight, or Cal blows that massive lead). And I think one of those misses was a legitimate mistake by me - in retrospect I should have picked Xavier. I still stand by my FSU/Zags and OSU/GT picks, as it took statistical craziness for those games to go the wrong way. For the fourth game I lost, the Cornell/Temple game, I'm still unsure. I feel like my logic was sound, but at the same time it was just a Cornell beat-down. No statistical flukes. I'll have to think more about that game to see if I can learn something from it to use next year.

And I agree that Gus Johnson is the best college basketball play-by-play guy. It's a shame he didn't get any really good games to call. It seemed like he was waiting to explode during the FSU/Zags game and it never happened.

Mark said...

I agree that Gus Johnson is the best play-by-play guy, by far. It's too bad he's stuck in obscurity doing New York Knicks radio games. He's the best thing going for the Knicks.

Jeff, looks like Syracuse might make it through the first round- I look forward to seeing what happens with them on Sunday. Suprisingly easy time against UVM due to the injury issue.

Jeff said...

Well the question wasn't whether Syracuse would survive round 1. Vermont just isn't any good.

The first real test for Syracuse will be Gonzaga, particularly since it's looking likely that Onuaku will not play yet again. It looks like Boeheim is getting 7-footer DaShonte Riley some playing time so that he can be ready to fill some of the void inside on Sunday. I would be surprised if Boeheim doesn't dip even deeper into his bench with this game against Vermont pretty much out of reach.

Anonymous said...

Just wondering, Jeff, if you were going to make any more posts tonight, or just converse on the comments page here?

Mark said...

Now's probably a good time to see who else can play off the bench. Look forward to Day 3! I hope Cal can hold on for the next 20 minutes!!

CVH said...

Houston is giving Maryland a run for their money- okay, that last 3-pointer before the half-time buzzer was an awesomely lucky fluke, but Houston sure doesn't look weak for a 13-seed.

Jeff said...

Anonymous, I'm undecided if I'm going to post again. If I did a daily recap post it would end up being a repetition of what I've already been saying here in the comments to this post.

I'll maybe throw up my thoughts on Sunday's lines tonight.

The Day Three version of this post will go up around 1-2pm eastern time, most likely.

Anonymous said...

Cal is in the process of losing its grip on this game...and Houston is still hanging around with Maryland...thoughts?

Jeff said...

I'm not too nervous about Cal yet. The nature of the way they play (a lot of jump shots) lends itself to slumps and spurts. But they're a very good free throw shooting team, and they're very senior-heavy and experienced, so I don't see them falling apart down the stretch.

As for Houston, they seem to be treading water down by 10 points or so, but you have to respect the fact that they're at least hanging in there. They can teach UTEP a thing or two about second half effort.

Anonymous said...

simultaneous intentional foul on kyle curic and technical on rick pitino and i didnt even see what happened cuz it was away from the play...and CBS doesnt show a replay? booo!