Thursday, February 17, 2011

W-3.5 BP68

We're less than four weeks from Selection Sunday, and less than two weeks from the start of the first conference tournaments. Bracketbusters is coming up this weekend, and don't forget that my next bracket will be out after Saturday's games are complete.

Remember, this is a projection of where things will end up and not a snapshot of where things are now. If your team is not rated where you think they should be, please tell me what you think I did wrong in the comments and I'll be happy to discuss it with you.

As always, here is how I see things ending up:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. Texas
2. BYU (MWC)
2. Purdue
2. Georgetown

3. San Diego State
3. Notre Dame
3. Wisconsin
3. Louisville

4. Villanova
4. Syracuse
4. North Carolina

5. UConn
5. Texas A&M
5. Florida

6. Arizona
6. Vanderbilt
6. Missouri

7. Tennessee
7. West Virginia
7. Illinois

8. Richmond
8. Cincinnati
8. Saint Mary's (WCC)

9. Michigan State
9. Virginia Tech
9. Xavier
9. Baylor

10. Minnesota
10. St. John's
10. George Mason
10. Marquette

11. Georgia
11. Kansas State
11. Maryland

12. Florida State
12. UCLA
12. Boston College
12. Washington State




16. LIU (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Duquesne, Oklahoma State, UAB, Southern Miss, Cleveland State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Gonzaga

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Dayton, Michigan, Northwestern, Penn State, Colorado, Nebraska, Drexel, VCU, UTEP, Valparaiso, New Mexico, Alabama

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Rhode Island, Providence, Oklahoma, James Madison, Marshall, Northern Iowa, California, Mississippi, Portland

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
NC State, Virginia, St. Bonaventure, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Indiana, Iowa State, Hofstra, Central Florida, Tulsa, Princeton, Fairfield, Air Force, USC, Stanford, Arkansas, Mississippi State, South Carolina


Chris said...

You don't see Xavier getting a better seed than Richmond in the bracket? Right now I see them winning the A-10, but understand how you have Temple above them.

I am looking fwd to seeing tonights Richmond v Temple game. Should be a good one.

Jeff said...

Well if they win the A-10 tournament certainly they'll be ahead. Xavier's on a heck of a hot streak, but I don't think they'll keep it up.

I think they'll lose one of their two remaining road games and I think they'll fall no later than the A-10 semifinals. If they do better than that then their seed will improve.

I second your thoughts on the Temple/Richmond game tonight. I'm glad it will be on a channel I get.

Anonymous said...

You're assuming Purdue beats OSU and wins @MSU and wins the Big 10 tourney. I see no other way they get a 2 seed. I think they'll be a 4/5 and be behind Wisky. Last night was their first good win.

Louisville a 3 is interesting. Washington too high even if they win out. Xavier too low. St Johns kind of low.

Jeff said...

I'm assuming that Purdue loses to Ohio State, beats MSU, and then beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament semifinals.

If that happens Purdue will have a nice set of wins: Wisconsin (twice), Michigan State (twice), Illinois, Minnesota and Virginia Tech. In addition, Purdue will be 27-7 with a Top Ten Sagarin ELO_CHESS.

Purdue is right on the border between a 2 and 3 seed, but I don't believe they need to win the Big Ten tournament to earn a 2 seed. A lot will depend on how the Big East plays out. If the top teams (other than Pitt) keep beating up on each they're going to keep amassing losses.

If we give a 1/2 seed to the Mountain West, 2 to the Big 12, one to Duke, OSU and Pitt, that still leaves another two of them available. The battle for those two will be between Purdue, a second Mountain West team, and some Big East teams.

Sam said...

Ivy League Double Watch:
Harvard: 18-4(7-1) ELO 33
Princeton: 19-4(7-0) ELO 40

I still don't think it's going to happen, but if the playoff-Princeton win scenario happens, Harvard may well wind up with the best ELO rating left out. Whether it's the very light non-conference schedule, the fact that they're not a very good team(around 100th Pomeroy) or just a committee block on putting two Ivy teams in the field, I don't think it will happen. I'm rooting for it, though(I like the weird stuff, but then, don't we all?)

Jeff said...

It would be awesome if two Ivy League teams got in, but the odds are long, even in the scenario you suggest. The teams just don't have enough big wins.

But if the playoff/Princeton wins scenario does come to pass, and the bubble is weak enough, it is possible...

Sam said...

Oh, believe me, I know it's a long shot. In one of your recent posts, you mentioned that most years there will be a team in the top 40 by ELO that gets left out, and it's typically a team with a weak non-conference schedule. That's Harvard all over.

Jeff said...

Yeah, you can look at my "How Well The Computers Projected The Field" posts on the left side of the page. Last year ELO_CHESS teams #36 (Virginia Tech) and #40 (Seton Hall) missed out. The year before it #35 (Penn State).

All three teams actually finished .500 or better in quality conferences, but none of them beat anybody good out-of-conference.

Anonymous said...

ODU higher seed than GMU? How's that?

Jeff said...

I'm projecting ODU to win the Colonial tournament.

Anonymous said...

I don't get your St Johns hate no offense. How is Cincy 2 seeds higher than St Johns? Win total? St Johns has been more battle tested and won the more recent game of the two teams.

How is Michigan St a 9 seed and over St Johns? Mich St has the better track record over the past years sure but I just cannot see the understanding to have MSU as a 9 seed and St Johns after winning 2 conf. road games over fellow bubble teams move from a 11(Or was it 12) to a 10 seed.

I know you think they are "overrated" but still I just don't get it. I think people putting St Johns as far as 6th is a bit too high but 10th at this point? If they lose 2 of the games vs USF, DePaul And Seton Hall absolutely agree with you. But at the moment, with the momentum they have? 10 seed? Nah.

Anonymous said...

Because with so many losses already, it is unlikely that the selection committee will give st john's a higher seed even though they have a set of excellent resume wins. I feel that michigan state will be one of the last few in or one of the first out, we've given izzo almost the whole season for his Team to pick up the pace. The selection committee will look at their personnel losses and injuries but only to a certain extent. Dont think Baylor and Utah state should be that high as well.

Chris said...

With last nights loss, you can remove Providence from any mention on your brackets. I was at that game. Good God did they look awful.

Jeff said...

Yes, a loss at home to DePaul is... embarrassing, to say the least. There was a lot of positive buzz with that young team, and they were definitely moving in the right direction, so hopefully Keno is able to get his kids to not dwell on what happened last night.

As for St. John's, again, I agree that their seed would be a little bit higher if the season ended now. A 6 seed is a bit much, but maybe a 7 or 8? But I think they will go 3-2 down the stretch and will lose in their first Big East tournament game, and to me that drops them to a 10 seed.

Anonymous said...

I agree that I can see a 3-2 finish for St Johns(Wins over Seton hall, DePaul and USF. Losses to Nova and PITT).

That would get them 5th or 6th in the Big East tourney and it'd mean a 1st rd matchup with either DePaul or USF which I think St Johns can win either game, especially at The Garden. I think St Johns can win the 1st round of the tourney, from then on who knows.

Jeff said...

Actually, the Big East tournament has a complicated bye system. If St. John's gets a 6 or 7 seed they will not play in the first round against a team like USF or DePaul - they'll have a bye to the second round where they'll play a team like Cincinnati. I would make St. John's the underdog there.

Anonymous said...

With the Pitt upset now, St Johns has to be given its respect and due now!

Wow tough win vs a very tough squad who had a hot Gibbs returning. This might lock them in officially for the tourney....even with losses to DePaul, USF and Seton Hall(Which would be terrible but the SOS and big wins are just too big at this point)

STJ can have a legit 20 win season on the horizon.

Jeff said...

St. John's has been on an unbelievable run. Let me put a little bit of thought into their resume - I'll have a post on that game later in the day.