Thursday, February 10, 2011

W-4.5 BP68

We're at the time of year that I'm publishing BP68s twice weekly. The next one will be out after Saturday night's games, as usual.

I do have plenty of thoughts on the games earlier tonight, but I won't post that now. I'll write some posts up tomorrow evening (or tonight, depending on what time zone you're in), so tune back then.

As always, here is how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)

2. Texas
2. BYU (MWC)
2. Purdue
2. Georgetown

3. San Diego State
3. Villanova
3. Notre Dame
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)

4. Louisville
4. Wisconsin
4. Syracuse
4. Texas A&M

5. North Carolina
5. UConn
5 WASHINGTON (PAC-10)
5. Florida

6. West Virginia
6. Arizona
6. Missouri
6. Vanderbilt

7. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
7. Cincinnati
7. Tennessee
7. UNLV

8. Illinois
8. Marquette
8. SAINT MARY'S (WCC)
8. Minnesota

9. Florida State
9. Richmond
9. Maryland
9. Baylor

10. UTAH STATE (WAC)
10. Georgia
10. Virginia Tech
10. Michigan State

11. Kansas State
11. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
11. Oklahoma State
11. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

12. Boston College
12. Xavier
12. Northwestern
12. Washington State
12. George Mason
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. BUTLER (HORIZON)
13. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
13. HARVARD (IVY)

14. CHARLESTON (SOUTHERN)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. KENT STATE (MAC)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

15. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)

16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. FLORIDA ATLANTIC (SUN BELT)
16. LIU (NEC)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Duquesne, St. John's, VCU, Southern Miss, Cleveland State, Missouri State, New Mexico, UCLA, Gonzaga

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Dayton, Penn State, Colorado, Nebraska, Drexel, UAB, UTEP, Valparaiso, Colorado State, Alabama

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Rhode Island, Providence, Michigan, Oklahoma, Hofstra, James Madison, Marshall, Northern Iowa, California, USC, Mississippi, South Carolina, Portland

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia, St. Bonaventure, UMass, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Central Florida, Tulsa, Wright State, Princeton, Fairfield, Air Force, Stanford, Arkansas, Mississippi State

11 comments:

Ken Miller said...

After CSU's home loss to Butler, it looks like you were right about the Horizon League. I still think Butler ends up a 3 seed in a strange conference tournament where being a 1 or 2 offers a double-bye, but if they play on a nearby floor in Valparaiso for the title and get a matchup that they own in CSU in the semis, then Butler will fight its way in to the NCAA's.

Evan said...

I love this blog! I check it all the time for my Michigan Wolverines. Good job man, keep up the good work.

Jeff said...

Thanks for the kind words, Evan!

CSURamsfan said...

Hey Jeff:

Having trouble understanding Northwestern staying in the field (4-8) in conference, ELO_Chess 68, and my beloved CSU Rams not even making the bubble with a good conference record and an ELO_Chess of 51. Are you projecting a bad turn of events for the Rams?

Do you discount head-to-head victories? I'd think Colorado State would have the edge on Southern Miss as we beat them, our ELO_Chess is only 2 spots below theirs, and we've played a much harder schedule.

Thanks for putting up with a concerned homer.

Ian

Jeff said...

Well, a 4-8 Northwestern team is not in the bracket - I'm pulling them out after that loss to Michigan. I was projecting a win for them in that game. There's no question that Colorado State's resume better than Northwestern's resume at the moment.

But the problem I see for Colorado State is that they really need to beat BYU or San Diego State on the road. If they lose both of those games then they've got to win every other remaining regular season game (including games against New Mexico and UNLV) and then they will need to win a game or two in the Mountain West tournament. I don't see them going perfect. Look at their last three games against the bottom half of the conference - all three have been won by 6 points or less. When you play enough close games you're eventually going to lose one.

So that's my concern about Colorado State. But the nice part of that is that there is a path for them. The odds are just against them...

CSURamsfan said...

That makes a lot of sense. I agree that the Rams face long roads @San Diego St. or @BYU -- so they better not choke against one of the sub-RPI 100 teams left.

Jeff said...

Yeah. I just checked Pomeroy's projections and he projects four more losses for Colorado State in the regular season. If you look at RPIForecast, which uses a basic formula that takes the Sagarin PREDICTOR as input, four losses is also projected as most likely. A 10% probability of two or fewer losses is the projection.

Colorado State might lose twice and still be out of the Field of 68 heading into the Mountain West tournament, so that tells me that CSU's odds of being in the Field of 68 at the end of the regular season are in the 5-10% range.

At least that's a more accurate number than those stupid fake percentages that Lunardi has been using on ESPN this year to give his bracket an illusion of statistic competency.

Jeff said...

Interested to hear your logic of picking ODU to win the Colonial over both George Mason and VCU while they currently stand 2 games behind.

Jeff said...

The team that wins the regular season title in a conference often doesn't win the automatic bid. I just think Old Dominion is the best team, and is also best positioned to win in a tournament setting. George Mason is a team very dependent on outside shooting, which is a good way to pull an upset in the NCAA Tournament but is not a good way to grind through a conference tournament with win after win.

Old Dominion, with their dominating rebounding, is the team best positioned to win in a conference tournament setting. And besides, George Mason is going to have a reality check at some point. They're peaking early, and now that they're starting to get some national buzz they are going to start feeling the pressure. ODU is under the radar, which I like.

Anonymous said...

Why would a BYU or San Diego St. not be concidered a #1 seed at this time. Every conperison I have read this year says that the MWC is the 4th rated conference above the PAC 10, ACC and SEC. With that said, why is BYU and SDSU being snubbed?

Many sites have Texas and Kansas as #1 seeds. Shouldn't the #1 seeds be from the top 4 rated conferences?

Jeff said...

Even if the Mountain West was the fourth best conference, it doesn't work that way. The Selection Committee looks at individual teams, not conferences. Often times there are two teams from the same conference that earn 1 seeds. But besides, the Mountain West is only fourth in RPI. Sagarin rates the Mountain West fifth (behind the ACC) and Pomeroy rates them sixth (behind the ACC and Pac-10). I'm not sure if I'd put the Pac-10 ahead of the MWC, but the ACC is definitely underrated. Look at the quality of the lower level teams in the ACC versus the lower level teams in the MWC. Pomeroy rates four of the MWC's 9 teams out of the Top 100, compared to only 1 of 12 ACC teams.

If SDSU or BYU win out then they will get a 1 seed, as I've said several times. But right now I see BYU losing again, and I see SDSU losing at least twice, and that drops them to 2 seeds. Keep in mind how much easier it is for a Big East team to build their resume quickly than a Mountain West team.