Sunday, March 20, 2011

Day 6 Open Thread

It's the last day of the first week, so sit back and enjoy the action with another open thread. I've previewed today's games already here.

I just wanted to add some thoughts on yesterday's games:

1) Pitt had the easiest route to the Final Four, and seemed like the safest Final Four team, but it just goes to show you that other than the 14-16 seeds, just about everybody can beat everybody. But that was a truly amazing ending. I have seen many times a player commit a dumb foul 50+ feet from the basket in the final two seconds to blow a game. Oklahoma State's Roger Dowell committed a similar gaffe this year, and the closest example from the past few years was Jemelle Horne three years ago. But to happen to both teams, back-to-back? I've never seen that. And both were correct foul calls - particularly the final foul that put Matt Howard on the line for the win. I support refs not calling ticky tack fouls in the final few seconds, but Howard has arm grabbed and pulled... you've got to call that. The biggest over-looked thing from this game? That Andrew Smith should have been the hero for hitting the game winning shot with 2 seconds left, but now he's an after-thought.

2) BYU is a soft 3 seed, but they're still a team nobody wants to face because of the way Jimmer Fredette can go wild. And he's got teammates that can shoot threes when you put too much defensive pressure on him. Fredette was 7-for-12 behind the arc, and his team as a whole hit 14-for-28 against Gonzaga. But that said, Gonzaga's defense has been soft for much of the season because of poor effort. They had been playing good defense the past few weeks, but they regressed against BYU. BYU vs Florida will be an interesting game to preview.

3) UConn is definitely playing very well. There has been no post-Big East title swoon, which is rare.They're handling success well. I will do a preview for their game against SDSU later this week, so stay turned for that.

4) The story that Wisconsin is all Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer was obviously proved wrong last night. Leuer played well, but not great, and Taylor couldn't hit a shot to save his life, and all while K-State's star Jacob Pullen couldn't miss a shot. Instead it was Wisconsin role players that stepped up and hit the big shots, got the big rebounds, and made most of the big defensive plays. Coming into the Tournament I thought Wisconsin was the second best team in the Southeast and would be the toughest match-up for Pittsburgh. With Pittsburgh going down, and the fact that Wisconsin has an easier Sweet 16 opponent (as opposed to Florida and BYU, who have to play themselves), Wisconsin has to be the favorite to win the Southeast region now. I think Butler matches up well with them, though, so that could be another great game. But like I said, I'll have previews coming for these games later.


Enjoy the games today, guys! I'll see you in the comments section.

15 comments:

Tom said...

Let's go Arizona

Anonymous said...

I picked Arizona over Texas, but I'm going to be honest, with the physicality of Texas's front line, I'm not sure Arizona's going to be able to get it done.

Anonymous said...

i like basketball , i am from costa rica and i speak little english , but let me tell you that i have been reading your predictions and its interesting, and i like too much your blog.... congratulations .... i need to learn about NCAA .... bye.... rene@yahoo.com

Anonymous said...

i forgot to say that i love sports... NBA , MLB, NFL , but of course you cant to know about all , i was reading about NCAA last 3 weeks and its amazing and exciting when you love a sport and you are learning details that are important to know... congratulations again Jeff.... atte.... reneizandra@yahoo.com ( my email )bye.

Anonymous said...

Michigan playing well, unfortunately they don't have the talent to really stop Duke offensively and get anything other than threes on offense. As long as they keep it close though, you never know...

Anonymous said...

Michigan playing some sick d with the zone, Hardaway with the huge 3, Michigan down 1!

Jeff said...

Heartbreaking loss for Michigan. Duke had an off day, and if only Michigan could have hit another shot or two they'd have won.

Texas/Arizona coming down to a great finish. And VCU is clearly going to make things difficult on Purdue.

Jeff said...

Wow! What a shot by Derrick Williams! At the line for one more with a tie game, 9 seconds to go.

Jeff said...

Heartbreak for Texas. Leave it to a Rick Barnes team to lose because of a 5 second violation with a timeout still in the bag.

I'm now 4-0 on my gambling lines today and leading the fifth. Is an 8-0 day possible? I hope I'm not jinxing that...

Anonymous said...

Purdue is disappointing...think VCU has a shot to beat Notre Dame though because then its all good...

Anonymous said...

and that "think VCU has a shot to beat Notre Dame" is supposed to be a question

Jeff said...

Purdue's better than Notre Dame, so if VCU can beat them then they can beat Notre Dame. If that match-up comes to pass, I will dive into the stats to see if there's a match-up that either team can exploit.

Keep in mind that even if Purdue goes down tonight (looking increasingly likely), Notre Dame doesn't have a free pass against FSU. If their threes don't fall they could lose.

Jeff said...

VCU... wow. Where has this play come from? They remind me of Butler last year - another team that came out of nowhere and had its best performances of the year in the NCAA Tournament.


I feel for JaJuan Johnson, E'Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel, though. Those three deserved to go to a Final Four, and I'm sure they would have last year or this year if Hummel had been healthy.

charizard said...

I have missed only Syracuse for money ( 700$ ) :(

I bet Syracuse to win without hendikep :(

Congratulations on the analysis, we were really close

Anonymous said...

wow lol VCU over purdue, marquette over syracuse. Definitely didn;t see those two coming. And notre dame threes didn';t fall