Sunday, March 27, 2011

Sunday Open Thread + Picking The Lines

The NCAA Tournament continues to surprise me this year. It's been one of the most topsy-turvy I can recall. And while statistics say that over the long haul there is almost no correlation between having won close games in the past and winning close games in the future, we sure have had a few teams that continue to win close game after close game (Butler and UConn being the most blatant).

Please join me in the comments to this post to chat about today's games. Here are my thoughts on the two games coming:

Saturday ATS: 1-1
Total through Saturday ATS: 38-23-1
2010 Tournament ATS: 35-25-3

VCU (+11.5) over Kansas: You'll notice that I didn't include VCU on my list with Butler and UConn, and that's because VCU hasn't been lucky. Despite being by far the worst team given an at-large bid this year, they've flipped a switch and have just played great for the past four games. They put up 1.20 PPP against Georgetown and then an insane 1.43 against Purdue. Even the 0.97 PPP they put up against Florida State was impressive when you consider that FSU is (in my opinion) the clear best defense in the nation. And one thing that's really important to point out here is that the only real weakness Kansas has is ball handling (they were only 112th in the nation, and 6th in the Big 12, in offensive turnover rate), and VCU can really pressure ball handlers (they led the Colonial in both defensive turnover rate and defensive steal rate). Kansas knows that they've been handed a gift draw, particularly now that they're due to face Butler if they make the Final Four, and they're going to be very nervous about blowing it against such a wildly inferior VCU team. As poor as VCU was this year as a whole, they only lost one game by more than 12 points. I just think that spread is way too large, and honestly a win here for VCU wouldn't be any more surprising than Butler making the Final Four.

North Carolina (+1) over Kentucky: I know that Pomeroy is projecting a two point victory for Kentucky and Sagarin is projecting about a 1.5 point victory, but I strongly disagree for a few reasons. First of all, UNC's computer ratings are a bit deflated by their weak play early in the season. They've been playing their best ball lately. Despite the fact that Kentucky's gotten their best wins late in the season, from the perspective of the computers there actually hasn't been much of an improvement in Kentucky throughout the year, and they simply changed from having close unlucky losses to close lucky wins. But more importantly, Sagarin and Pomeroy do not take into account individual player match-ups, and I think there's a huge edge for UNC there. UNC will push the pace - they are averaging 73 possessions per game - and Kentucky doesn't like to run. Only three times all year did the play a Top 100 team in a game with more than 70 possessions, and they went 1-2 in those games, including that loss to North Carolina. Kentucky plays a six man rotation, and they are likely going to wear out. There's going to be huge pressure on Josh Harrellson to stay with Tyler Zeller and John Henson up-and-down the floor. If either Harrellson or Terrence Jones gets in foul trouble it's going to be a major problem. The one way Kentucky can win this game is with outside shooting. They're a better outside shooting team (although North Carolina is the better three-point defensive team), and if they can get hot then they can put up enough points to keep up with North Carolina. But Kentucky's been living off of their half court defense, and North Carolina is likely not going to give them a lot of opportunities to play half court defense. I can't see Kentucky beating North Carolina. But then again, I couldn't see Kentucky beating Ohio State, and then the Buckeyes chose to launch 20 foot contested jumpers all game and blew their chance of a National Title. With UConn getting out of the West Region, either Kentucky or North Carolina will very likely be my Final Four pick (UConn might be favored in Vegas just because they're so overrated by the public), and Kansas is the only team that will scare them on the other side of the bracket. So this game will have massive NCAA Title implications. My pick is UNC.

23 comments:

Jeff said...

VCU's forcing turnovers, which is precisely what they need to do. It's unbelievable how much confidence they're playing with. They're more impressive than George Mason's Final Four team - just an unbelievable run.

And as I type this they hit a three to go up 20-10 over Kansas. Unbelievable.

Jeff said...

33-17. Words don't describe...

Jeff said...

One thing I can say is that VCU's outstanding play is overshadowing the fact that Kansas is playing terribly. They can't hit a shot and they're rushing. We've seen this from Kansas many times under Bill Self.

Anonymous said...

Wow at VCU, I was mad when Ohio State blew it, but with all these upsets, I'm honestly just thinking **** it...

But, man, that SDU game, where San Diego just missed some open shots and had some dumb turnovers is really hurting now, they get to the final four, and I might have won despite losing my two final teams (OSU and Kansas) which shows just how crazy this tournament has been.

Jeff said...

Yes, this Tournament has been insane. If VCU hangs on against Kansas we'll have a 11 seed, 8 seed, 3 seed and a 2/4 seed. Sum that up and we'll get either 24 or 26, smashing the record of 22 set in the year 2000.

Jeff said...

VCU was a 34.5% three-point shooting team in CAA play and they hit 9-for-17 in the first half in this game. Unreal. And they're not even that open. Guys are dribbling up and launching 25 footers, which under ordinary situations would be poor basketball.

But everything's working for VCU right now - whatever they try.

And the fact that so many front court players on both teams are in foul trouble is a good sign for VCU, since Kansas's biggest mismatches are in the paint.

Anonymous said...

kansas coming back

Jeff said...

Definitely. And VCU is wearing out physically . But foul trouble is a lot worse for Kansas than it is for VCU, so you have to wonder if that will be a factor down the stretch.

Jeff said...

This game had the feeling like if Kansas got the lead they'd never give it up again... but after getting within two, Kansas's deficit is back up to nine. This game is going to come down to the final minutes. VCU is not going to go away.

Jeff said...

Bill Self has to get one of the Morris twins back in the game. Kansas has played so much better with them in than with them out. I know that they both have three fouls, but the attitude has to be that they've got four fouls of Morris twins left. So get one of them out there, and if he picks up a fourth foul then bring in the other. Can't go too long with both on the bench.

Jeff said...

Going back to Pomeroy's pre-Tournament projections, he gave a 3-in-a-million chance to a Butler-VCU Final Four game.

Anonymous said...

One of VCU or Butler are going to be in the Finals.

Wow.

Sam said...

I know I sure don't want to go to war with the Rams.

Jeff said...

Yeah. And that is a catchy chant, too. I don't recall hearing it before this year. Of course, other than the Eric Maynor Era, I don't recall a whole lot about VCU before this year...

Jeff said...

Supposedly Butler is opening as a 3 point favorite over VCU. Butler was obviously the better team over the season, but VCU's been playing far better in the NCAA Tournament.

I'll have to go over the match-ups this week to make a call on that one.

Jeff said...

The third foul on Henson with about 7 or 8 minutes to go in the half was huge. This game's being played at Carolina's pace, but Henson is one of UNC's two big mismatches (Zeller is the other). With Henson on the bench Kentucky can put Harrellson on Zeller and won't feel a serious mismatch anywhere.

Henson's not normally foul prone, so if I was Roy Williams I'd throw Henson in to start the half and I'd just tell him to be careful. Can't afford to get less than 10 minutes out of him in the second half. Justin Knox simply doesn't scare Kentucky.

Jeff said...

Stupid mistake by Henson to pick up his fourth foul - how can you leave your feet there? UNC is playing very tight and Kentucky is playing like VCU, just flinging up threes and getting them to go.

Jeff said...

The fact that Kentucky is 12-for-22 on threes and UNC is 3-for-14 tells you all you need to know about this game. If the teams shoot anywhere near their season averages it's a UNC romp.

On the plus side, when this Final Four is inevitably taken away by a future NCAA investigation, John Calipari can have Final Fours taken away at three separate schools. That's an unbeatable record, like Cy Young's 511 wins.

Kemba said...

Kentucky wins again, no surprise for me : )

Jeff said...

They did win the game. Although with the way they were hitting outside shots and the fact that UNC couldn't hit anything (and John Henson fouled out of a game for the first time in his entire collegiate career), the fact that the game was so close at the end tells me I'm right that UNC wins that game at least seven times out of ten.

Jeff said...

The upside of Kentucky winning means that we've got a few days of great Calipari jokes coming. For example, I saw somebody on twitter make the "Congratulations to John Calipari for making it to his first Final Four for the third time" joke.

Anonymous said...

Hi Jeff,
Your kenpom analysis is excellent. Any possibilty of breaking down the CBI, CIT and NIT remaining games?

Jeff said...

I wasn't planning on doing that simply because I'm turning my attention to the 2011-12 previews. If you want to know about a specific team or game I can probably give you some thoughts, though with those secondary tournaments a huge part is just motivation, and how badly each team wants to win.