Monday, November 28, 2011

Minnesota Loses Game And Trevor Mbakwe

Dayton 86, Minnesota 70
This isn't a terrible loss for Minnesota against Dayton, but the real story from this game is Trevor Mbakwe. While much of the team has struggled at times, Mbakwe has been a dominant force, and would have been one of the top big men in the entire Big Ten. And now he's done for the season. Mbakwe could potentially get a sixth season next year with a medical redshirt, but Tubby Smith honestly might not be around for that. His team has been decimated the past few seasons with injuries, transfers and off-court problems, and simply can't make it through a season with the roster in tact. The pressure was on Tubby to finally win this season and... now what? I already thought Minnesota was narrowly outside the Field of 68 even before the Mbakwe injury. Now? It's very hard to see them working their way to the NCAA Tournament.

This is a good win for Dayton, and honestly they probably would have won this game even if Mbakwe hadn't gotten hurt. Mbakwe played the entire first half, after which Dayton was still up by nine points. This team has really turned things around after that disappointing loss to Miami-Ohio. They've got consecutive wins over Wake Forest, Fairfield and Minnesota. Next up for them is a Wednesday night game against Buffalo and then a Sunday game at Murray State.

This is actually Minnesota's first loss of the season. While they have a few decent wins (Fairfield, Indiana State, DePaul, Bucknell), none are wins a Big Ten team will be bragging about on Selection Sunday. They have a tough home game on Wednesday against Virginia Tech, and then will go against USC on Saturday.

Indiana 75, Butler 59
Indiana fans have watched Butler have so much success the past couple of years, but they now feel like they've got the talent they need to contend in the Big Ten, and it was clear coming into this game that they had this one marked on their calendar. And Indiana put on a shooting display in this game, going 8-for-13 behind the arc (compared to 5-for-18 for Butler) and 80.6% at the free throw line (compared to 54.5% for Butler). Indiana's not going to shoot that well so often, and Butler can feel like the Hoosiers got a little bit of hometown reffing, but I don't think this result really was that much of a fluke.

First of all, Butler struggled in the same ways they've struggled all season. Their ball handling and offensive creation has been awful. Ronald Nored is the only backcourt player who can create his own shot, and even he's not creating a lot of offense for his teammates. As a whole they had seven assists and 19 turnovers, and allowed Indiana to collect 14 steals. In addition, this is just one in a string of disappointing results for Butler. They lost to Evansville, got destroyed at home by Louisville and had a very narrow win over a mediocre Gardner Webb team. Their Pomeroy rating has slipped to 105th and their Sagarin PREDICTOR is 193rd, believe it or not.

I expect things to get better for Butler. They're not playing up to their talent, and Brad Stevens does a terrific job of adapting his game plans to his talent. He's just still figuring this team out. They're not the 193rd best team in the country - that's for sure. I'm very curious to see how they handle their conference opener against Valparaiso on Saturday. It's a game that they should win if they play well. The Hoosiers are now 6-0, though their best wins were over Butler and Evansville, so they've still got to prove themselves. They've got an interesting Big Ten/ACC Challenge game on Wednesday night at NC State. It will be a great opportunity to steal a win against a team that they might be fighting with for an at-large spot on Selection Sunday.

Bowling Green 67, Temple 64
At first glance, it seems like Temple has really struggled this season. They needed some bad reffing in overtime to get past UPenn, and then needed another overtime (though no blown calls that I'm aware of) to beat Wichita State, and now have a bad loss to Bowling Green. They're only 3-2 overall. That said, Temple is not a team that's going to blow opponents away. Fran Dunphy's coaching style is to make his team solid and mistake-free. They don't beat themselves, but they will allow you to beat them if you play well enough. Bowling Green just played with great passion and energy. They blocked eight shots and won the rebounding battle (a 36.0 OR% to 29.6% for Temple). They fed off the home crowd and pulled out a huge victory.

This is the biggest win Louis Orr has had as head coach of Bowling Green. They also have wins over Detroit and Austin Peay, and both of their losses have been to decent/good opponents (George Washington and Georgia). The MAC, as it has been for the past few years, is wide open. There's no reason why Bowling Green can't throw their hat in the ring. Their next game will be Sunday, on the road at Western Kentucky. Temple will try to bounce back on Saturday against Central Michigan. Their next quality opponent will be a week after that, against Villanova.

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