Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Providence... Upsets Fairfield? Meanwhile, FSU Rolls

Providence 80, Fairfield 72
Yes, this was an "upset". Fairfield was favored by about seven points in Vegas. Fairfield is the team most people think is the favorite in the MAAC. While I picked them back in April, I switched to Iona after MoMo Jones became eligible to play. I do still think Fairfield is a borderline Top 100 team in the nation, however. Providence, meanwhile, is in a rebuilding state with a new coach. But in this game? Fairfield just struggled athletically with Providence. Other than Boston College transfer Rakim Sanders, the Fairfield guards just couldn't keep up, and couldn't get the ball into the paint themselves. Fairfield took 26 threes, to 8 for Providence. Providence took 20 free throws, to 7 for Fairfield. It was the guard trio of Bryce Cotton, Vincent Council and Gerard Coleman that dominated, combining for 67 points on 25-for-41 shooting from the field and 15-for-18 from the line. Those three alone combined for more two-point shots and more free throw attempts than the entire Fairfield team.

Fairfield doesn't have a lot of time to lick their wounds, as they head to Minnesota on Thursday. But they were a very long shot to earn an at-large bid anyway. These non-conference games have to be about growth and improvement so that they can be best positioned to try to win the MAAC. Providence plays a couple of cupcakes before playing heading to the South Padre Invitational the day after Thanksgiving. They'll play Iowa State on November 25th and Northern Iowa on November 26th. A win in either game, honestly, would be an upset, despite this win over Fairfield. Fans should be satisfied if they can get a split.

#24 Florida State 73, Central Florida 50
What was intriguing about this game wasn't the fact that Florida State shut down UCF's offense because, honestly, they do that to everybody. The size and athleticism they have on defense is unreal, and they've been the best defense in the nation over the past few years. What was intriguing was Florida State's offensive performance. They had a 53.6 eFG% and scored 1.06 points per possession. For reference, they played 25 games last year against quality opponents ("quality" meaning teams from BCS conferences, or NCAA opponents, or Butler), and did better than 1.06 points per possession in only four of those games. What particularly stood out were Bernard James and Xavier Gibson - their two defensive rocks in the paint - scoring a combined 30 points on 13-for-18 shooting. So is this a trend or a blip?

Right now I'm leaning towards "blip", honestly. UCF just doesn't have the size to handle FSU, and they were just physically forcing their way into the basket. James and Gibson combined for only 3-for-10 at the free throw line, and the team as a whole hit 56% from there. They also hit 3-for-14 behind the arc as a team. Until FSU does this against a team with a more formidable front line, I'm hesitant to believe that Florida State's offense has broken out. They will play UMass on Thanksgiving, but their next test against a top quality front line probably won't come until they play Michigan State on November 30th. UCF has to figure out what went wrong. They're still a young team, and still learning how to win. They will play High Point on Friday, a game that could potentially cause them trouble, and then they'll play a quality College of Charleston team on Thanksgiving.

#16 Arizona 73, Ball State 63
It was great to see Kevin Parrom on the floor, only seven weeks after being shot while visiting his family. He only played 18 minutes, but I'm sure that will increase as he gets back into game shape. I was shocked to even see him in a game at all this early in the season. This win wasn't dominant, but it's a nice win nonetheless. Ball State is my pick to win the MAC, and there's a good chance that they'll end up as an RPI Top 100 team.

Arizona hasn't dominated anybody yet, but their three wins this season (over Duquesne, Ball State and Valparaiso) are really quite impressive. I picked Arizona preseason as my favorite in the Pac-12, and I feel even better about that projection now. Their next test will be Thursday when they continue Coaches vs Cancer with a game against St. John's. Ball State heads to Indiana State for a game on Friday afternoon, and then their schedule eases up for the rest of the month.

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