Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Virginia Knocks Off Michigan To Open Big Ten/ACC Challenge

The Big Ten/ACC Challenge got underway tonight. Here are my thoughts on the first three games:

Virginia 70, #15 Michigan 58
Virginia had already proven earlier this season that they were a little better than most people thought they'd be. I thought they were still a year away from getting back to the NCAA Tournament, yet they'd been playing like a true Bubble team in November. But this was a truly impressive win in all facets of the game. First, Virginia sliced up a defense that had shut down Memphis (0.91 PPP). Michigan didn't seem to know how to handle Mike Scott (18 points and 11 rebounds), and Virginia did a really nice job of passing the ball to the open man whenever the Wolverines defense collapsed or over-pursued. Virginia finished with 16 assists on 22 made baskets, and 1.13 PPP.

It's not a surprise that Virginia played well defensively, of course. Tony Bennett, like his father, always has teams that play deliberate, scrappy defense. They also got some help with Tim Hardaway, Jr picked up two very early fouls, putting a lot of the offensive playmaking pressure on true freshman Trey Burke. So it wasn't a surprise that they held Michigan's offense as they did. It was their offensive outburst that made this win impressive, and made me think they really could make a run at an at-large bid this season.

Virginia's resume is still fairly soft. This is their only real quality win and they've got a bad loss to TCU. They will play a cupcake on Saturday, but then will play George Mason on Tuesday. Oregon is their only other quality opponent. In other words, they're going to have to finish 9-7 or better in ACC play to earn an at-large bid.

This is Michigan's second loss of the season. Neither loss was a bad loss (the other was to Duke), and they've got quality wins over Memphis and UCLA, so there's no reason to panic. Let's see how they respond on Saturday against Iowa State.

Northwestern 76, Georgia Tech 62
Despite this being a road game, this was a "taking care of business" game for Northwestern. This would have been a bad loss. And Northwestern didn't play spectacular here - no player had a great day - they just took care of business and won. In fact, if there was a breakout game it was from Georgia Tech sophomore Jason Morris, who had a career high 21 points (on 6-for-11 shooting) off the bench.

Northwestern is quietly up to 6-0, with wins over Seton Hall, Tulsa and now Georgia Tech. Of course, none of those are particularly good wins. Their two chances for resume-building wins before starting conference play will be against Baylor and Creighton. The Baylor game is up first, on Sunday. Georgia Tech is now 4-3, and while none of their losses (LSU, Northwestern and St. Joseph's) are horrible losses, they don't have any great wins either (VCU is the best). They will head to Tulane on Saturday, and then head to in-state rival Georgia next Wednesday.

Illinois 71, Maryland 62
The transfer of Sam Maniscalco from Bradley to Illinois went totally unnoticed in the national media when it happened, but think about where this team would be without him. Not only is he leading the team in scoring this season, but he's been best in the biggest moments. Illinois trailed at halftime, and Maryland was playing confident and with a very active crowd firing them up. But in the second half? Maniscalco scored 15 points on 4-for-7 shooting (including 3-for-5 behind the arc) and a perfect 4-for-4 at the line in the final minute to salt the game away. Meyers Leonard (12 points on 6-for-9 shooting) also continued his strong play.

For Maryland, James Padgett really impressed (16 points, 5 rebounds). He's become a very nice interior complement to Terrell Stoglin. But I felt like Maryland ran out of steam in the second half because they just don't have any other quality players. They're just short on talent. Mark Turgeon is a very good recruiter, and he's already tapped into the DC area AAU circuit better than Gary Williams did, so eventually the talent will be there. But it's not there yet.

Maryland doesn't have any "bad" losses yet this season, but the closest thing they've got to a decent win was beating Colorado by seven points. They will get Notre Dame on Sunday in a quasi-home game (it will be played in Washington DC). The Irish will be vulnerable after losing Tim Abromaitis for the season. After that, Maryland is really just playing cupcakes until beginning ACC play on January 8th at NC State.

Illinois is 7-0, though they still lack any really big wins. Victories over Richmond, Maryland and Illinois State are all decent wins, but there's a chance that none of those teams will end up in the RPI Top 100. They'll have a chance for a nice win on Saturday when Gonzaga comes to town. They also will play UNLV and Missouri before beginning Big Ten play on December 27th against Minnesota.

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