Sunday, November 27, 2011

W-15 BP68

We're 15 weeks from Selection Sunday, and at this point basically every top team has played at least one quality opponent. The sample sizes are still small, and so it's a mistake to make too many judgments, but at least we've seen some of each of the top teams.

My regular readers know that I move teams slowly in my bracket - I'm not going to respond wildly to each upset. This week, for example, I'm not going to panic and drop North Carolina from that top spot. The pollsters will drop them from #1, of course, and I'm not too confident that UNC is still the best team, but I'm not going to overreact to one poorly played game in what was effectively a true road game against a team that (in my opinion) is one of the 25 best in the nation.

As for the field of 68, I've made two changes this week. I've finally dropped UCLA out, and I've moved Stanford into the field in their place. Among the auto bids, I've changed my pick in the Ohio Valley Conference, replacing Austin Peay with Murray State.

Among teams not in the field yet, but that have earned my attention and a place in this post, are Southern Miss (despite the loss to Murray State) and Kent State. Teams that were in last week's post that have been dropped from this week's post because of poor play and results are Evansville, Fresno State, Princeton and UTEP.

As always, this is my projection of where things will be on Selection Sunday, and not a statement on where things stand now.

Here we go:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)

2. Duke
2. Louisville
2. Florida
2. TEXAS (BIG 12)

3. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas
3. Wisconsin
3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

4. UConn
4. Alabama
4. GONZAGA (WCC)
4. Vanderbilt

5. UNLV (MWC)
5. Marquette
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Purdue

6. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. West Virginia
6. Michigan
6. Georgetown

7. Texas A&M
7. Xavier
7. Baylor
7. Florida State

8. Illinois
8. Michigan State
8. New Mexico
8. California

9. Virginia Tech
9. San Diego State
9. Oklahoma State
9. Saint Louis

10. Villanova
10. BYU
10. Cincinnati
10. HARVARD (IVY)

11. Washington State
11. Missouri
11. CREIGHTON (MVC)
11. Washington

12. Indiana
12. BUTLER (HORIZON)
12. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
12. Miami (Fl)
12. Saint Mary's

13. IONA (MAAC)
13. Stanford
13. Notre Dame
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)

14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BALL STATE (MAC)
15. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. FLORIDA ATLANTIC (SUN BELT)
16. LIBERTY (BIG SOUTH)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Kansas State, Tulsa, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, UCLA, Oregon, Mississippi State, South Carolina, New Mexico State

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Clemson, Virginia, Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Seton Hall, Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma, UAB, Central Florida, Marshall, Cleveland State, Detroit, Indiana State, Oregon State, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, Nevada

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Georgia Tech, Maryland, St. Joseph's, Providence, Rutgers, St. John's, South Florida, Iowa State, Drexel, James Madison, Old Dominion, VCU, Houston, Southern Miss, Valparaiso, UW-Milwaukee, Fairfield, Kent State, Drake, Boise State, Colorado State, TCU, Arizona State, Colorado, USC, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Charleston, San Francisco

6 comments:

Joe D said...

Very nice job with the blog, I too was up watching the Great Alaska Shootout which means I too am an out of control college hoops junkie. One question though, I'm surprised you still have Notre Dame in your field of 68 after they got blasted by Missouri, lost to Georgia and especially because Abromaitis is lost for the season.

DMoore said...

Well, when I see Cincinnati & Notre Dame in the field, and UCLA in the Seriously Considered list, we desperately need some surprise teams to emerge. Some of the expected strong teams look really bad at this point.

Anonymous said...

Texas a #2 lol..Read your site everyday great stuff. You must like the Big East..I don't see W.Vir..Cincy even making the field and ND won't make the NIT or Butler for that matter...Extremely under seated is Marq..Mizz..Harvard..Crieghton Solid teams

Jeff said...

I dropped Notre Dame from a 9 seed to a 13 because of the Abro injury. Still unsure about them. I watched a lot of that Missouri game and they looked like a team that hadn't had a practice yet. They are usually so prepared and solid that I'm wondering if that was just a terrible game for them. Sometimes teams just have clunkers at these Thanksgiving tournaments.

So what I'm really saying is that I just need to see a little bit more from Notre Dame to drop them out of the field entirely.

In particular, I'm waiting for one of the several Missouri Valley teams I have just outside the Field of 68 to do what is needed to earn their way into the Tournament. I feel fairly confident that the Valley will be a multi-bid conference... it's just way too close to call which teams those will be.

Ken Miller said...

You are certainly out on a limb at the moment saying that Texas will finish as a #2 seed. No one else seems to think they are going anywhere in the Big 12. They looked very shaky yesterday versus Sam Houston St., but if all of those youngsters start figuring how to work with one another on the floor you might end up looking like a genius in March.

Jeff said...

Texas is a very young team right now. Myck Kabongo is playing like a scared true freshman right now - I don't think he'll still be playing that way in February and March.

Remember that Texas would have won that NC State game by double-digits if J'Covan Brown hadn't gotten that bizarre technical foul that took him out of the game with 8 minutes to go and Kabongo wasn't ready for the moment. I'm not ready to declare them dead and buried because of one strange loss to Oregon State.


Maybe the freshmen won't develop and I'll be way wrong. But I still feel pretty good about my Texas pick.