Sunday, November 13, 2011

W-17 BP68

Here we are. The season is under way, and we're 17 weeks from Selection Sunday. Time for a new bracket.

For those new to my BP68 brackets, you can read about them here. In short, this is a projection of how I think things will end up on Selection Sunday, rather than a statement on where teams are right now. Teams left out of the bracket are separated into groups, but within each group they are ordered alphabetically, by conference and by team name. The reasons I do that is twofold. First, I'm acknowledging the inherent margin of error, and just giving you a general idea of where teams stand. And second, I just don't think there's much point in determining whether a team is the 21st team out of the bracket or 22nd.

Obviously this bracket is going to be mostly influenced by my preseason projections. But we have played some regular season games, and those results will impact the bracket a little bit.

Without further ado:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)

2. Duke
2. Louisville
2. TEXAS (BIG 12)
2. Florida

3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
3. Pittsburgh
3. UConn
3. GONZAGA (WCC)

4. Kansas
4. Vanderbilt
4. Wisconsin
4. UNLV (MWC)

5. Alabama
5. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Purdue
5. Texas A&M

6. West Virginia
6. Marquette
6. Baylor
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

7. New Mexico
7. UCLA
7. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
7. Xavier

8. Michigan State
8. Florida State
8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Michigan

9. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
9. Georgetown
9. Illinois
9. San Diego State

10. Oklahoma State
10. Virginia Tech
10. Cincinnati
10. Notre Dame

11. BYU
11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Washington State
11. California

12. South Carolina
12. Villanova
12. Washington
12. Miami (Fl)
12. Saint Louis

13. CREIGHTON (MVC)
13. Missouri
13. Indiana
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. IONA (MAAC)

14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

15. BALL STATE (MAC)
15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)

16. FLORIDA ATLANTIC (SUN BELT)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. LIBERTY (BIG SOUTH)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Virginia, Duquesne, Rutgers, Iowa, Northwestern, Kansas State, Drexel, VCU, Tulsa, UAB, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Oregon, Stanford, Saint Mary's, Nevada, New Mexico State

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Clemson, Maryland, George Washington, St. John's, Minnesota, Nebraska, Old Dominion, Central Florida, Marshall, Cleveland State, Detroit, Indiana State, Colorado State, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi State, Tennessee

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, Dayton, Seton Hall, South Florida, Iowa State, Oklahoma, James Madison, UTEP, Valparaiso, UW-Milwaukee, Princeton, Fairfield, Drake, Evansville, Missouri State, Arizona State, USC, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Charleston, San Francisco, Fresno State

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello Jeff, in your America East preview, you talk about two players of vermont (G.Kissel and S.Marsalis). But they aren´t on the roster do you know where are they?

Des said...

A few picks im pretty intrigued about.

UCLA a 7? I know their backcourt situation will definitely improve since its horrendous right now but I do not see such a high seed in the future. Something around 10-11 seems more likely.

Purdue a 5? They were impressive in their opener but I dont see how their thin and unproven frontcourt other than Robbie Hummel will allow them to win enough games. And none of their guards can create offensive except for Lewis Jackson occasionally.

Texas a 2? I would uneasy placing them that high, it seems to me that the winner of the big 12 will get something like a 3-4 seed this time seeing how weak the top of the league is.

At the bottom of the bracket, I rather have South Carolina, Miami (FL) and Indiana out, in their places (in no particular order) I would rather have Wichita State , Oregon and Virginia.

Also I think Long Beach State will end up as 13-14 rather than a 15.

Jeff said...

Des, we can agree to disagree on UCLA and Purdue. I think those are two teams that are being underrated, UCLA's fluke loss to start the season notwithstanding. Purdue's backcourt, for example, is just going to be really, really good. Possibly the second best in the Big Ten.

As for Texas, I know there's plenty of disagreement on who will win the conference, and I agree that the top of the conference is wide open, but I find it doubtful that the best Big 12 team will get stuck with a 3-4 seed. Even though the top of the conference is weak, the bottom of the conference is very strong, and overall it's going to be just fine. That means that the winner of the conference - whoever that is - will end up with a lot of quality wins and good computer numbers.

Don't confuse this year's Big 12 with recent vintages of the SEC and Pac-10, which were just bad from weak to bottom. The Big 12 has plenty of depth.

And I don't have a ton of confidence in the bottom of my bracket, as I don't think anybody else does at this point. As I said on twitter, I am thinking seriously about putting a second Missouri Valley team in the bracket, but in the end decided against it this week. They need to show me more to prove that the conference has moved past where they've been the past few seasons. And as for Oregon, I'm not as impressed with their near-upset of Vanderbilt as others. If Tony Woods ends up their second best player, that's not a good sign. I think they're still a year away from making the Tournament.

And I agree that Long Beach State is a very good team this year, and I considered moving them up to the 14 line this week. There's just a very, very strong crop of 13-14 seed automatic bid winners this year.

I certainly don't see them passing up Utah State or Iona, so the only way they can get a 13 will be if we have some upsets in conference tournaments, and everybody gets pushed up a few lines.

Des said...

I agree with you with the much improved depth of the big 12. What I feel is that because of the depth, I envision the big 12 winner having something like a 13-5 record with much parity. Will that be enough for a 2 seed?

I accept what you say on pursue and ucla. I just have not been impressed with ucla at all that their team can make a whole bunch of improvements during the year and for purdue, I felt that their guards , especially ryne smith and sj Byrd, benefitted a lot from the extra attention opponents assigned to Johnson and Moore (like Jon diebler from turner and sullinger)

It seems like this year the bottom of the bracket is just incredibly strong. Any 2 seed playing long beach state or vermont ought to be extremely wary. Hopefully we dont have scrub teams upsetting too many of them in the conference tournaments.