Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Cincinnati Knocks Off Georgetown

Cincinnati 68, #11 Georgetown 64
Georgetown led by a few points for almost the entire second half, but a 13-3 run late in the second half (during which Georgetown had five turnovers) stunned the Hoyas. One thing I noticed in this game is something that has plagued Georgetown for years now - that because they never show any flexibility in their system, opponents can force the ball out of the hands of certain players. I used to complain about this constantly when Roy Hibbert and Greg Monroe were on the Hoyas and weren't getting nearly enough touches. Nobody on the current team has that level of dominance, but Hollis Thompson is getting there. Thompson was 5-for-5 from the field in the first half, including 4-for-4 behind the arc. In the second half? He took a single shot. Georgetown still finished with a 65.9 eFG% even without second half contributions from Hollis Thompson, but with the lead slipping away late they should have tried to get more offense through their star.

Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick were the stars for Cincinnati. They combined for 49 points, but their biggest contributions were defensively, where they had four steals apiece. Cincy finished as a team with almost as many steals (13) as Georgetown had assists (14). And this result is a good bounce-back win after that disappointing home loss to St. John's. It's also a very good sign that this improved play from Cincinnati since the Xavier brawl is here to stay. They had their "reality check" game, and immediately got back to beating quality teams. The Bearcats are now 3-1 in Big East play and have wins over Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and Oklahoma, along with a bad loss to Presbyterian. A 9-9 Big East record will put them on the bubble and a 10-8 record probably gets them into the Tournament. They'll try to move to 4-1 on Saturday at home against Villanova before heading on the road to play UConn and West Virginia next week and then coming home for Syracuse.

Georgetown falls to 3-2 with this loss, and the fact that it's a home loss makes it particularly damaging for their Big East title chances. They do have a soft upcoming schedule (at St. John's, at DePaul, vs Rutgers), so they should move up in the standings. Their one game this season against Syracuse will be at the Carrier Dome, on February 8th. If they can somehow get that upset then they can get back into the Big East title race.

Purdue 79, Minnesota 66
This game wasn't really as close as the final score would suggest. Purdue led by 15 at the half and by 22 in the second half before cruising to the finish. Lewis Jackson led all players with 20 points, but this win was about DJ Byrd and Ryne Smith combining for 8-for-10 shooting behind the arc. Both of those two players have a nice shooting stroke, and it really opens up the offense when they can get hot. Minnesota had 11 different players that earned seven minutes or more in this game. Tubby Smith has often played a very large rotation at Minnesota, and I just don't get what he's doing. The best teams have 8/9 man rotations. 11 is just too many unless you're a mid-major team playing a full-game full court press (e.g. Belmont).

Purdue is now 3-1 and in a tie for third place in the Big Ten, but it's come against a soft schedule. That schedule strength will pick up in the next few weeks, beginning with a home game against a reeling Wisconsin team tomorrow. They'll come home to play Iowa on Tuesday before heading out on the road to play Michigan State. They also will have a home-and-home with Ohio State, Indiana and Michigan, and will get a return visit from Michigan State, so they'll have plenty of opportunities to get quality wins.

Minnesota is 12-5 overall, but they're 0-4 in the Big Ten with a win over Virginia Tech more than balanced out by a bad loss to Iowa. Their Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings have all slipped outside the Top 60. And unless they pull an upset at Indiana tomorrow they'll head into a must-win road game at Penn State on Sunday, trying to avoid an 0-6 start to the season. As good as the Big Ten is, Minnesota can put themselves in the NCAA Tournament with a 9-9 record, and even will put themselves on the bubble if they can get to 8-10, but an 0-6 start will make that extremely difficult. They have a brutal six game stretch in February (vs Wisconsin, vs Ohio St, at Northwestern, vs Michigan State, vs Indiana, at Wisconsin) and are going to rack up several losses in that month no matter how well they play.

#16 Connecticut 64, West Virginia 57
West Virginia actually controlled this game for the first 30 minutes or so. But UConn's defense started to take its toll in the second half. They were playing tight on the perimeter, and held WVU to 25% on threes. And then in the paint it was the Andre Drummond show. Drummond had only three of UConn's nine blocks, but re-directed close to a dozen others. UConn's defensive rebounding continues to be terrible (West Virginia had 16 offensive boards), but their ability to swat away everything near the paint kept the Mountaineers from profiting too much. Offensively, UConn got a strong performance from Jeremy Lamb (25 points on 9-for-17 shooting).

This was nearly a great win for West Virginia coming off a win over Georgetown. Instead they fall to 3-2 in Big East play with a home game against Rutgers coming up on Saturday. The Mountaineers have wins over Kansas State, Missouri State and Miami (Fl) in addition to the win over Georgetown and a weak loss to Kent State. A win over Marshall next week and a 9-9 Big East record more than likely will be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament.

UConn is 13-3 overall and 3-2 in Big East play, though they have a softer resume than most people realize. This is probably their best win of the season. Their other quality wins have come over Florida State and Harvard, and they've got bad losses to UCF and Rutgers. I don't think there's any risk of them being a bubble team, but I don't see why they should be considered a Big East contender. They play at Notre Dame on Saturday and then will come home to play Cincinnati next Wednesday.

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