Monday, January 02, 2012

Creighton Bounces Back At Wichita State

#19 Creighton 68, Wichita State 61
After an impressive non-conference performance, Creighton stumbled in their Missouri Valley opener at home against Missouri State. Rather than getting to bounce back against conference bottom feeders, they instead had to head right on the road to face the team most likely to challenge them for the conference title - Wichita State. Creighton was actually a six or seven point underdog in Vegas. The Bluejays pulled the upset by doing what they do best - shooting the ball. They might be the best shooting team in the country (they're third in the nation in eFG%), and what made this performance (8-for-15 on threes and a 50.0 eFG%) so impressive was that Wichita State's strength is perimeter defense. Wichita State is top among Missouri Valley teams this season in both 3P% against (28.4%) and eFG% against (44.0%). They get up in your face and don't allow you to shoot. And that's especially true when the crowd is rocking at the Roundhouse, which it was here.

In my opinion, both of these teams deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament, and both will probably get in. The computers believe Wichita State is the slightly better team, and while they may be right, Creighton's got the much stronger resume for the time being. Creighton has wins over Wichita State, San Diego State, Northwestern and Iowa, and no bad losses (either the losses to St. Joe's or Missouri State could end up iffy, but right now both of those look like bubble teams). They're now 1-1 in Missouri Valley play and heading into a very manageable part of their schedule. They'll play Drake tomorrow. Their next competitive game will likely be January 10th against Northern Iowa.

Wichita State, as I said, is loved by the computers (14th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR and 16th in Pomeroy), but they haven't been able to pull out close wins against quality opponents (they lost to Temple in overtime, for example). They don't have any bad losses, but that win over UNLV is their only quality win of the season. They're now 1-1 in Missouri Valley play, and may need to get to 12-6 just to make the NCAA Tournament. At 11-7 they'll likely enter the Missouri Valley tournament with work left to do to earn their way into the Field of 68. The Shockers head on the road now to play Evansville on Wednesday and Southern Illinois on Saturday.

New Mexico 64, Saint Louis 60
If these teams were called "Memphis" and "Michigan State" this game might have gotten the attention it deserved. Of course, part of the problem was that this game was on The Mtn, which I'm convinced is a closed circuit television network that you can only receive inside arenas. I've never met anybody that actually gets the channel at home, which is a travesty when you consider how many great games are stuck on it. Let the SWAC be buried on Martian Television. College basketball fans should get to watch a game like New Mexico/Saint Louis.

Saint Louis acquitted themselves well here. They have struggled to score at times this season, but against a ferocious New Mexico defense (the Lobos are rated 7th in the nation in Pomeroy Defensive Efficiency) they committed only eight turnovers and shot 57.1% on twos. They were undone by 3-for-18 shooting behind the arc. Even Cody Ellis, who's usually lights out, was only 2-for-7. Credit has to go to New Mexico, too, for doing just enough offensively against a Saint Louis team that is excellent defensively as well.

I'll say the same thing about these two teams that I said about Creighton and Wichita State higher up in this post. Both teams deserve to make the NCAA Tournament, and the odds definitely favor both getting in. New Mexico, with this win, has won 10 straight games to get to 12-2 with victories over St. Louis, Missouri State, Oklahoma State and Washington State, along with bad losses back in November to Santa Clara and New Mexico State. A 9-5 Mountain West record should be sufficient for an at-large bid. They'll open up conference play January 14th at Wyoming.

St. Louis is also 12-2, with wins over Villanova, Oklahoma and Washington, along with a bad loss to Loyola Marymount. They probably need to get to 10-6 or better in conference play to feel good about their at-large chances. They'll open conference play Wednesday at Dayton. Their next tough game after that will be January 11th against Temple.

Gonzaga 72, Xavier 65
You can give a team a pass for losing a game or two against quality opponents when missing suspended players, as was the case when Xavier had their brawl with Cincinnati and then fell to Oral Roberts and Long Beach State. But there was no excuse to lose to Hawaii, particularly since they only had one regular suspended for that game. And then barely beating Southern Illinois by ten points? And now, with every last player back and the team at full strength, losing at home by seven points to Gonzaga? Remember that this Xavier team was 8-0 with wins over Purdue, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Butler and was ranked 8th in the nation before the suspensions.

While something has obviously gone wrong with this Xavier team, some credit has to go to Gonzaga for this win. What stood out were the 20 nice minutes that Sam Dower gave them off the bench (20 points on 7-for-11 shooting, along with 10 rebounds). Dower's not going to play that many minutes too often, but it's a sign of the tremendous frontcourt depth Gonzaga has. The Zags backcourt is still finding itself (they've got a whole bunch of good players, but no clear stars or go-to players), but the front court is as good as it's been in the Mark Few era.

Xavier now heads into A-10 play at 9-4 and spiraling out of control. If the season ended now they wouldn't even be in the Tournament. The Atlantic Ten is very strong this year, but Xavier's going to have to finish 11-5 or better to have a good chance at an at-large bid. They'll open up on Wednesday at La Salle. If they can get that win then their manageable early schedule could lead to a 4-0 or 5-0 start, which can help the team mentally get past the Cincy brawl and its aftermath.

The Zags are now 11-2 with wins over Arizona, Xavier, Notre Dame, Washington State and Butler, and no bad losses. They've got a couple of easy games coming up at home, on Thursday against Pepperdine and on Saturday against Santa Clara.

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