Illinois Stuns Ohio State

Illinois 79, #5 Ohio State 74
To say Brandon Paul had a great game here is an understatement. He finished with 43 points, including 8-for-10 on three-pointers. And Ohio State has excellent perimeter defenders that were trying to stop him all night long, they just couldn't. Anything he threw up went in. Offensively, Ohio State actually played fairly well. DeShaun Thomas scored 23 points on 8-for-12 shooting, and as a team the Buckeyes scored 1.12 PPP.

This game is one of several signs that the Big Ten is going to be a battle nightly. No game is going to be a gimme, and even the best teams are going to lose their share of games. In fact, I wouldn't at all be surprised if no team manages to finish better than 13-5 in conference play. If any team gets to 14-4, I think they'll earn the title. Ohio State has lost a pair of games, but both were on the road against quality teams (the other was against Indiana), and they're definitely still the favorite (in my opinion) to win the conference. Michigan State, off to a quick 4-0 start, looks to be their top rivals. Indiana will be another.

The Buckeyes will get ready now for a huge home game on Sunday against Indiana. It will be a revenge game, but also an imperative game for them to stay in the thick of the Big Ten title hunt. Their next game after that will be on the road at Nebraska. They still will have to play a home-and-home against Michigan State, but those games won't start for a few weeks. The first will be in Columbus on February 11th. The return trip to East Lansing will be on March 4th.

Illinois started 2012 looking like a true bubble team, but they're now 3-0 in this calendar year with wins over Ohio State, Northwestern and Nebraska. They are now 4-1 with a road game at Penn State up next, a week from today. But beware, road games at Penn State are going to be difficult this season. They'll play extremely hard, and will win the game if the Illini don't match their effort level.

#13 Michigan 66, Northwestern 64, OT
Another tough, hard-fought loss for Northwestern. This is the type of game that Northwestern always seems to lose. The Wildcats shot the ball well (46.2 3P%, 56.3 eFG%), but they couldn't handle Michigan's athleticism on the boards (Michigan had a 34.1 OR%, compared to a 13.6 OR% for Northwestern). Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. both played all 45 minutes for Michigan, and Hardaway's 5-for-9 behind the arc was a big key. Burke was explosive as well, and even though he didn't score much he did create a lot for his teammates with seven assists.

This is the second straight heart-breaking loss for Northwestern, coming off a one-point loss to Illinois where they had dominated for the entire first half but fell apart late in the second. If they had somehow won both of those games they'd be 3-1 and looking firmly on their way to an NCAA Tournament bid. But as it seems to happen every season, Northwestern lost both and is now 1-3 and looking like yet another trip to the NIT.

That said, Northwestern will get plenty more chances for quality wins in the Big Ten. They'll play Michigan State on Saturday, and then head to Wisconsin for a game next Wednesday. They are only 1-5 against the RPI Top 50 at the moment, but have ten more games in the regular season alone against teams currently in the RPI Top 50. Even a 5-5 split in those ten games would put Northwestern in a pretty good spot, particularly if they can get to 9-9 overall in Big Ten play.

Michigan isn't a team that the computers love. Their only decent wins out-of-conference came over Memphis and Iowa State, and they're rated 29th in the Pomeroy ratings and 36th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. But with this win coming on the heels of that huge victory over Wisconsin, they're now 4-1 in Big Ten play, only a half game behind Michigan State. I'm not sure they really have the offensive horses to hang near the top of the conference all season long, but they'll get their chance to prove me wrong. They will have to avoid a look-ahead game on Saturday at Iowa with a Tuesday home game against Michigan State looming. Iowa's been playing very well so far in Big Ten play, and if Michigan is looking past them to the Spartans at all, they will lose.

#21 Creighton 63, Northern Iowa 60
Doug McDermott didn't have a good game here at all. His 7-for-15 shooting from the floor was downright frigid by his standards (he has a 68.5 eFG% this season), and he even missed the front end of a one-and-one with a couple of seconds to go that gave Northern Iowa one final chance to tie up the game. But it shows that Creighton is about more than just Doug McDermott, pulling out a win against a very good Northern Iowa team without him playing well. Antoine Young led all players with 21 points on 9-for-15 shooting, including ten points in the final 8:40.

This win allows Creighton to keep pace with Wichita State and Missouri State at 4-1 atop the Missouri Valley. With wins over Northwestern, San Diego State, Wichita State and Northern Iowa, and zero bad losses, a 12-6 conference record along with a win or two in the Missouri Valley tournament should be sufficient for an at-large bid. A 13-5 record will really put them in a good position. That said, their upcoming schedule is pretty tough. They have to head to Illinois State for a game tomorrow, and are less than a week away from a road game at Missouri State.

That home loss to Evansville is really haunting Northern Iowa. This isn't a bad loss here by any means, but it drops them to 2-3 in Missouri Valley play. They have a win over Colorado State, but that's more than made up for by the loss to Evansville as well as losses to Illinois State and Ohio. It's hard to see them earning an at-large bid unless they can finish at least 12-6 in Missouri Valley play, which means they'll need to go at least 10-3 the rest of the way. They will play Missouri State at home on Friday, and then will head on the road to play Bradley on Sunday.