Is Dayton The Atlantic Ten Favorite?

Dayton 87, Xavier 72
Xavier actually shot 8-for-14 in this game behind the arc, but it didn't make a difference. They were throttled here by Dayton. Kevin Dillard was the star for Dayton, scoring 16 points with 9 assists. I thought that Xavier turned themselves into too much of a two-man team. Tu Holloway is their superstar, of course, but somebody else other than Mark Lyons has to be a big part of the offense. Dayton focused their entire defense on stopping those two.

With this win, Dayton moves to 4-1 and first place in the Atlantic Ten standings. They're clearly playing far better than they were during out-of-conference play and they already have wins over Temple, St. Louis and Xavier - the three teams that were supposed to be the A-10's Big Three. Dayton is now a full game up in the standings over all of them. So is Dayton the favorite to win the conference now?

There are stats working for and against the argument that Dayton is the favorite. The arguments for are obviously that they've already beaten their three top contenders. Also, the fact that they've had the toughest in-conference strength of schedule of any A-10 team thus far and are still in first. Working against them? The wins over St. Louis and Xavier were at home (and one went into overtime), and the win over Temple was a classic letdown game for the Owls just three days after knocking off Duke. In conference play, despite being 4-1, they are only outscoring opponents by 0.05 PPP. Xavier is best in the conference, outscoring opponents by 0.15 PPP so far.

In my view, Dayton isn't the favorite yet, and the reason is expectations. They've been the aggressor, knocking off higher-rated teams. Now they become the target. What happens on Wednesday when they head on the road to play St. Joe's? I think Dayton will lose that game, honestly. Until Dayton proves that they can "take care of business" and win games that they're supposed to win, I'm not going to pick them as the favorites. And if you don't think that a team that beats big time opponents can't struggle to mid-level opponents when the expectations are different, go talk to an Indiana Hoosiers fans. For the time being, Temple remains my pick.

Xavier is still 4-2 in conference play after this loss, but that brutal six-game stretch after the Cincinnati brawl is going to be an albatross on their Tournament resume all season long. They have wins over Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Purdue along with bad losses to Hawaii and Oral Roberts. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will fall to close to 60th after this loss. I think they have to finish at least 11-5 in conference play to stay in a good position for an at-large bid. The Musketeers have a great chance for a big win on Wednesday against St. Louis.

#2 Kentucky 77, Alabama 71
Sooner or later, people are going to realize that Kentucky has not at all played like the #2 team in the country for the past few weeks. They had a few close games lately, including this one. And honestly, they probably should have lost this game. They got some home court reffing down the stretch, particularly the way they got quite a few bailout foul calls when they were struggling with the Alabama press. Kentucky also hit eight straight free throws in the final minute, constantly keeping Alabama just more than a possession away from tying the game up. That said, Kentucky did get a nice balanced effort today, with six different players scoring in double-digits. Anthony Davis, as he always does, locked down the paint (6 offensive rebounds, 4 blocks, 4 steals).

For all Kentucky's struggles, they do have those Kansas and North Carolina wins still on their resume, and they've taken advantage of a soft schedule to run up 11 straight wins. And with a road game at Georgia up next, on Tuesday, they should keep on winning. Their schedule will get a lot tougher when they hit February, however. That's when they'll play a home-and-home against both Florida and Vanderbilt.

Alabama, meanwhile, has lost three straight games to fall to 2-3 in SEC play. They don't have any particularly bad losses, but they don't have a wonderful set of big wins either (Wichita State and Purdue). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS had slid to 32nd even before this game (not that they'll drop for losing at Kentucky). They're not as far from the bubble as they should be, and need a few wins soon to move things in the right direction. They'll play next on Wednesday at South Carolina.

Arkansas 66, #19 Michigan 64
This wasn't an upset by any means, despite the fact that the mainstream media is telling us that it is. Arkansas is underrated, Michigan is overrated, and Arkansas is much better at home than on the road. Vegas had Arkansas as anywhere between a 1 and 2 point favorite (depending on the location). And watching this game, you could see that the Arkansas players just wanted this game more - they played with a level of intensity that Michigan didn't match until the final minutes. The individual player that stood out the most, though, was Trey Burke. Burke had 13 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists, and he scored 7 of those points in the final 4:30. That said, I don't want to re-hash what I said here, but the one flaw in Burke's game is that he's not a great passer. On the final couple of possessions, Mike Anderson sent his entire defense to try to stop Burke, knowing that he wasn't going to pass. That needs to be improved, particularly with the array of quality outside shooters that John Beilein always puts out on the floor.

Michigan is still in a tie for first place in the Big Ten at 5-2, though I don't expect that to last too long. Despite their upset of Michigan State earlier this week, I still think MSU is better, and Ohio State is still the team to beat in the conference. Michigan's schedule picks up a bit in the next couple of weeks, too. They'll play next on Tuesday at Purdue, and then will play at Ohio State next Sunday.

Arkansas has been perfect at home this season. They have wins over Michigan and Mississippi State at home, too. The problem is that they haven't proven yet that they can score enough points to win on the road. In fact, they haven't won a true road game all season long. And no, an 8-8 SEC record (particularly with an "SEC West" schedule) is not going to be enough for an at-large bid. They have a home game coming up on Wednesday against Auburn, but then they'll head on the road to play Alabama next Saturday. They also will still have true road games against LSU, Georgia, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Auburn the rest of the way. In my view, they've got to win at least three of those five games to have a real shot at an at-large bid. The Selection Committee needs to see that you can win away from your home gym.