Saturday, January 28, 2012

Kansas Falls To Iowa State

Iowa State 72, #5 Kansas 64
From a distance, this wasn't that shocking of an upset. Iowa State was only a seven point dog in Vegas. But this is a very important win for the program. Iowa State has won one NCAA Tournament game in the last decade and haven't been to a postseason tournament of any kind since 2005. In the past six seasons heading into this one, the Cyclones were a combined 27-69 in Big 12 play. They did beat Texas at home earlier this season, but this is clearly their biggest win in the (coach) Fred Hoiberg era.

That said, this isn't necessarily a turning point into a sustainable quality program. Three of the top four Iowa State minutes earners are transfers, after all. It's made them better in the short term, but you can't have sustained success in college basketball unless you're getting quality production from your high school recruits. Hoiberg had a fairly strong recruiting class this season and has another one coming in next year. Only time will tell if those guys end up being producers down the line. Royce White, the transfer from Minnesota, actually outplayed Thomas Robinson here. White had 19 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists, compared to 13 points, 7 rebounds and 0 assists for Robinson. And with Kansas within three points with five minutes to go, it was White who scored eight straight Iowa State points to help them keep their nose in front.

While the jury is still out on the long-term possibilities of the Iowa State program, this win is huge for their NCAA Tournament hopes. I had already moved Iowa State into the Field of 68 even before this win, but now they're even more firmly in. They are 5-3 in Big 12 play, with wins over Texas and Kansas along with a bad loss to Drake. With the strength of the Big 12, I think that a 10-8 conference record and a win in the Big 12 tournament will probably be sufficient for an NCAA Tournament bid. That means only .500 play the rest of the way. The Cyclones will try to avoid a letdown home loss to Kansas State on Tuesday before heading on the road to play Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

Even after this loss, Kansas is still a game clear in the Big 12. If they win at least a share of the conference title and then win the Big 12 tournament then they will earn a 1 seed. They shouldn't have much trouble bouncing back on Wednesday at home against Oklahoma, but then they'll head on the road to play Missouri and Baylor. If they can somehow win both games then they'll just about lock up the Big 12 regular season title... though the odds of them winning both games are not high.

#13 Florida 69, #16 Mississippi State 57
This was a deceptive final score, and an underwhelming performance by the Gators at home. This game was tight almost the entire way, and Florida led by only four points with under 8 minutes to go before closing on an 18-10 run. They seemed to struggle with Mississippi State's size, and their paint help defense opened up the perimeter for Mississippi State's shooters (the team shot 7-for-16 behind the arc).

But a win's a win, and it's important to take care of business at home when trying to make a run at a conference title. In the loss column, Florida is tied with Vanderbilt and a game back of Kentucky, and they still have a home-and-home to play against both opponents. Those will be the games that likely will decide which team will win the SEC regular season title. The Gators are 17-4 overall and 5-1 in the SEC and are rated in the Top 15 in both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR, but the concern is that they haven't really beaten anybody. They could really use a win over Kentucky to firm up their resume heading into Selection Sunday. Without a big win they risk ending up with a seed that won't make them happy on Selection Sunday.

Mississippi State is 17-5 overall and 4-3 in SEC play with wins over Alabama, Vanderbilt, West Virginia and Arizona, along with bad losses to Ole Miss, Akron and Arkansas. They are 5-5 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is likely to be right around 35th after this game. They'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, but not by much. If they get to 10-6 in SEC play they'll be in good shape for an at-large bid, but if they only go 9-7 then they'll probably need at least one win in the SEC tournament. Their schedule will be tough down the stretch, but it's easy the next couple of weeks. Their next three games will be at home against Auburn, Ole Miss and Georgia. They need to take care of business in all three to stay on pace for the NCAA Tournament.

UMass 72, St. Louis 59
UMass blew this game open late in the first half, going on a 22-5 run in the final 8:10 of the half. St. Louis shot 2-for-11 over that stretch with a pair of turnovers. Things didn't improve much in the second half. This was the worst St. Louis offensive performance of the season... by far. They had a 38.1 eFG% and scored 0.77 PPP. To put that in perspective, their previous worst performances of the season were 42.7% and 0.95 PPP in their loss to Dayton to open A-10 play. UMass is a good defensive team, but I can only give them so much credit for this. Heck, St. Louis only hit 42% of their free throws.

This loss is a major concern for St. Louis. They came into this game ranked as one of the 15 best teams in the nation by both Sagarin and Pomeroy, but they don't have any big wins. Their best win this season came over Xavier, and they slipped up with a bad loss to Loyola-Marymount. The Billikens are 0-3 against the RPI Top 50 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is going to tumble to around 50th after this loss. In fact, if the season ended now I don't think St. Louis would make the Field of 68. There won't be any more chances for big wins the rest of the way, so they're going to have to earn their at-large bid by winning enough games to put together a nice won-loss record and solid computer numbers. I think they've got to finish at least 10-6 in conference play, and should really get to 11-5 to feel good about their chances. At 4-3 now, they will head home to play St. Bonaventure on Wednesday and Dayton on Saturday.

UMass didn't do anything out-of-conference, losing to Charleston and beating nobody of note. But they are now 5-2 in A-10 play with wins over St. Louis and St. Joe's. Their RPI is up to 56th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should move up to around 65-70th. They're not quite on the Tournament bubble yet, but they're close. If they can get to 11-5 in A-10 play and win a game or two in the A-10 tournament, we'll have to at least consider them seriously on Selection Sunday.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Not really sure Ole Miss, Akron, and Arkansas are "bad" losses. Unless one of them goes on a major winning or losing streak, they'll all be in the 51-100 category of the RPI. Thing is, the Akron loss was at the beginning of November, and the other two came on the road. Maybe it's bad enough to drop the Miss State seeding, but that's nowhere near enough to put them in danger of missing the NCAA field.

I'll agree Miss State is overrated by the media, but there's a difference between being overrated and being on the bubble. Alabama looks much more likely to be on the bubble in March than Miss State. Just pick Miss State to lose their first NCAA game and in a couple months you'll look like a genius :)

Jeff said...

I don't disagree on Alabama. In fact, I wrote a post yesterday titled: "Alabama Falls Onto The Bubble". I think both are bubble teams.

And you're right about the "bad" losses. A team like Arkansas could win a bunch of games down the stretch and no longer be a bad loss. Anytime you say something like "bad loss" or "quality win" or "RPI Top 50 win" you have to accept the fact that it can change before Selection Sunday. That's why I never say that a team has "3 bad losses" or something like that without listing the teams, so that my readers can judge for themselves how bad those losses really are.

And obviously the Selection Committee will weigh different "bad" losses differently. Losing to Arkansas isn't as bad as losing to Presbyterian.