Saturday, January 28, 2012

Luck Matters: Syracuse Over West Virginia, Baylor over Texas

#4 Syracuse 63, West Virginia 61
I often talk about the difference between team resume and team quality. The better team doesn't always win, and there is a lot of luck involved in close games. While the media always creates post hoc rationalizations for close wins ("they willed themselves to the win" or "they made all the big plays down the stretch"), the reality is that in the long run luck evens out. Does a ref make an iffy call? Does a shot that rolls around the rim end up rolling in or out? These are all things that add up and matter in a game, though it's rare that one instance of luck is so blatant that nobody can dispute it... such as this game. Down by two points with the clock running out, Deniz Kilicli took a shot near the basket that would have tied up the game and Baye Moussa Keita blocked it, but there was goaltending that wasn't called. That's not an opinion, it's a fact - the ball clearly hit the backboard before it was blocked. This game should have had an overtime. Instead, because of a referee error, Kevin Jones had to take a tough, contested three at the buzzer that missed, and West Virginia lost.

On Selection Sunday, nobody will remember or care that a ref blew this game for West Virginia. Nobody is going to move them into the bracket or up a line because "Hey, remember that loss to Syracuse? That really should have gone to overtime." Their Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR numbers will reflect this strong performance, but their resume won't. It's just a loss. And West Virginia now drops to 5-4 in Big East play and 15-7 overall with wins over Georgetown, Kansas State and Cincinnati, along with bad losses to St. John's and Kent State. They'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, but not by a wide margin. A win at Syracuse would have changed that. I think they need five more wins to more-likely-than-not make the NCAA Tournament. They've either got to get to 10-8, or they need to go 9-9 and then win at least one Big East tournament game. Their next game will be on Monday against an improving Pittsburgh team.

Syracuse was in danger of falling back to the pack in the Big East. With this win they hang onto first place in the Big East. Either way, though, I still think they're the best team in the Big East and in the driver's seat for a 1 seed in March. They have scuffled in their last three games without Fab Melo, though. They have a week to get ready for their next game, on Saturday at St. John's.

#7 Baylor 76, Texas 71
Unlike the West Virginia/Syracuse game, there was no one play you could credit to "luck" in this game. Baylor got some home-cooking from the refs (two Texas players fouled out and a few more were in foul trouble), but nothing beyond what is typical for college basketball games. Home teams get an extra four points in Vegas, and studies have shown that refereeing is the dominant reason for "home advantage" in basketball, and all other major sports. But that said, Texas is now 0-6 in games decided by six points or less, and their two losses that weren't that close came on the road against Top Ten teams (Missouri and North Carolina). If Texas had gone 6-0 in those games instead of 0-6 they'd be 19-2 instead of 13-8, and they'd be ranked in the Top Ten instead of being considered by most people as an NIT team.

As I already said, all that matters on Selection Sunday are wins and losses, and so the fact that Texas hasn't won these games will affect their seed in a big way, but casual fans and the media are very mistaken in not realizing that Texas is an elite team. The media, and most fans, will rationalize these close losses, as I said above. It would be easy to say that Texas is a young team, and young teams tend to lose close games, but that would be wrong. Read this post I wrote about Memphis for a longer discussion about that. Memphis was super young last year and had incredibly good luck (14-2 in games decided by five points or less), and so they entered this year way overrated, and have actually had bad luck this year despite having every key player back (more experience means better clutch play... right?).

I agree with Ken Pomeroy: Texas is the most underrated team in the country. Even after this loss they will still be rated as a Top 25 team by both Pomeroy and Sagarin, and they're actually playing better now than they were back in November and December. I expect Texas to be one of the 10 or 15 best teams in the country by the time the Tournament comes around. But the big question is: what will their seed be? If the season ended now, they actually wouldn't even be in the NCAA Tournament. They're only 3-5 in Big 12 play. But their schedule will be a lot more manageable the rest of the way. They still have home games against Missouri, Baylor and Kansas State (opportunities for big wins) in addition to a bunch of games against the bottom of the conference (a home-and-home against Texas Tech, for example). I still think they'll finish 10-8 or 11-7 in conference play and then will win a couple of games in the Big 12 tournament. Remembering that the Selection Committee weights the final 10/12 games of the season much more than the rest of the season, Texas still has a good chance at a quality NCAA Tournament seed.

To me, Texas is a test of what people understand about advanced stats. If you think that "the team that wants it more" wins most close games, or that Tim Tebow "willed" his team to any victories this season (read my Tim Tebow post) then you think I'm an idiot and that Texas stinks. But if you understand that all teams in all sports win approximately 50% of their very close games over the long run and that clutch play is wildly overrated, then you understand that Texas is an elite team that is extremely underrated.

The Longhorns have an important game coming up on Monday at home against Missouri. I expect them to win that game, but if they don't then I will start to really drop their seed and start writing my "Pick Texas as a Cinderella team" posts for the NCAA Tournament.

By the way, there was another team in this game. This is an excellent win for Baylor. They are now only one game behind Kansas for the Big 12 lead. They lost at Kansas but will get a chance to get them back in Waco on February 8th. I'd bet against them winning the conference (I think Kansas is the better team), but they've put themselves in a position where they've got a legitimate shot, which is as much as you can ask for in a conference that Kansas has absolutely dominated for the better part of a decade. Baylor will play their next game on Wednesday at Texas A&M.

#18 Marquette 82, Villanova 78
Marquette's had bizarre troubles in the opening minutes of games in Big East play this season. They trailed Louisville 18-2 and came back to win. They trailed Pittsburgh 17-8 and came back to win. They trailed Syracuse 35-12 in the Carrier Dome and actually pulled within five points in the final minute before falling. And here? They trailed 28-10... and came back to win again. Makes you wonder if Buzz Williams needs to mix up his team's pregame routine.

The turning point in this game was a very dicey technical foul called on Maalik Wayns that nobody who was at the game thought he deserved (I wasn't at the game - that was just what I read from folks that were, and the announcers calling the game agreed). Marquette went on a quick 8-0 spurt following that technical foul that turned a four point deficit into a four point lead. With the refs taking over this game (45 fouls, 57 free throws, 3 technical fouls and a regulation game that took more than two and a half hours), Villanova just couldn't find a rhythm down the stretch.

Marquette is only one game behind Syracuse in the loss column. And if Georgetown loses (they're down to Pittsburgh as I'm typing this), the Golden Eagles will move into second place alone in the Big East. A 2 or 3 seed is definitely in play for Marquette, and even a 1 seed is possible if they can defy the odds and win the Big East tournament. They have already lost at Syracuse and will not get a return visit, but it's not inconceivable that they could be favored in every game the rest of the way. They could really build up their resume these next few weeks. They'll play Seton Hall on Tuesday, and then at Notre Dame next Saturday.

Villanova falls to 3-7 in Big East play and 10-12 overall with this loss. They're a better team than their record, but not that much better. They do have eight days now to get ready for their next game, on Sunday at Pitt.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Regarding your post in the Syracuse-West Virginia game, you said, "That's not an opinion, it's a fact - the ball clearly hit the backboard before it was blocked. This game should have had an overtime."

I agree that it was goaltending that was not called. But I disagree that this game should have gone to overtime. The goaltending happened with 8 seconds left in the game. Syracuse would have had the last shot in a tie game so there was certainly no guarantee of overtime.

Jeff said...

You're right, that was sloppy of me. And of course, even if the game went to overtime, West Virginia had a 50% chance of losing there anyway.

I just meant to illustrate the fact that there is a lot in any game that is out of the hands of players - a lot of "luck" - and so it's a mistake to pretend that because one team won a very close game that they were somehow destined to win it because of intangibles. And so there's a difference between a team's won/loss record and how good they are.

I just used the WVU/Cuse play to give an example of a really blatant case of a key moment in a game being taken over by a referee instead of a player. Obviously there were plenty of "lucky" things that benefited West Virginia throughout the night as well.