Saturday, January 21, 2012

North Carolina Beats Virginia Tech, Loses Dexter Strickland

#8 North Carolina 82, Virginia Tech 68
This was an impressive win for North Carolina. They obviously came in highly motivated off of that embarrassing loss to Florida State, but Virginia Tech was desperate for a big win as well. And Virginia Tech does this every year - they have bad losses and then come home and knock off North Carolina or Duke. It's why they end up on the bubble every year. And Virginia Tech did lead this game for most of the first half, and by as much as eight points in the second half before a 19-0 North Carolina run opened the game up. But while this was a nice win, it came at a heavy, heavy cost. Dexter Strickland got hurt, and the team found out yesterday that it was a torn ACL and he'll be done for the year. With Leslie McDonald out for the year also, the Tar Heels backcourt is now very thin behind Kendall Marshall and Reggie Bullock. It's time for true freshman PJ Hairston, who was a blue chip recruit, to step up and give the team big minutes. I wouldn't be surprised to see Justin Watts getting a bump in minutes as well.

It seems like a lock every season that Virginia Tech will mix bad losses with huge wins and will get their way onto the NCAA Tournament, But this season, I'm starting to wonder whether they'll even be able to get onto the bubble. They've already blown their home games against North Carolina and Florida State, so they've only got the Duke and Virginia games (as well as a non-conference game against BYU) left to get a big scalp. More importantly, they're now 0-4 in a down ACC, with an 0-5 record against the RPI Top 75. They'll need to get to at least 8-8 in conference play to have any chance for an at-large bid heading into the ACC tournament. They'll play a road game at Virginia tomorrow.

I've felt all season that North Carolina was one of the four best teams in the country, and I still felt that way immediately after this game ended. But without Dexter Strickland? I'm going to have to seriously consider not just dropping them from the 1 seed line, but dropping them as the ACC favorite (and taking Duke instead). Unfortunately, we won't be able to see them play again until Thursday, when they'll play NC State.

Washington State 81, Stanford 69
Oh, Pac-12, how you confuse. Washington State's defense has been horrible this season, allowing 1.10 PPP in conference play this season. Yet rather than attack this defense, and despite the fact that Stanford couldn't hit an outside shot to save their lives, and despite the fact that they had opened up a double-digit lead early in the second half, the Cardinal just kept chucking, and chucking.... and chucking. They launched 33 three-pointers in this game, hitting 8 of them (24.2%). When they actually attacked the rim, they scored at will (a 61.5 2P%).

Stanford is still 5-2 in Pac-12 play, though in the Pac-12 there are no quality wins - only bad losses. They now have bad losses to Oregon, Washington State and Butler, and their best win was probably the victory over NC State (or maybe Colorado State). Their RPI has slipped to 74th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is out to 63rd. Honestly, if the season ended now, Stanford would be out of the Tournament, and California would be the only at-large team from the Pac-12. That doesn't mean that the Pac-12 is likely to be a one-bid league (remember, the odds of California winning the Pac-12 tournament are lower than 50%), but it means that it's still very plausible. Because Stanford can't get any quality wins, they're going to have to earn their at-large bid by overwhelming the Selection Committee with their won-loss record. I think they've got to get to 12-6 in Pac-12 play (which would make them 22-8 overall) and then need to win a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament. They'll play later today at Washington.

This is a nice win for Washington State, but it's their best win and they have bad losses to Utah, UC-Riverside, Colorado, Washington and Oregon. They're outside the Top 100 in every computer rating. They'd have to win four or five more games in a row to get into the bubble discussion. Their next game will be later today at home against California, an excellent chance for them to bump those computer numbers up.

#9 Michigan State 83, Purdue 58
You have to feel sympathy for the Purdue players. Last night their plane got stuck on the tarmac for two hours and then was cancelled, sending the players back to their dorms. They were able to take a short nap before waking up for a 5am bus ride that took five hours to get them to East Lansing. They got into town two hours before tip and just went straight to the arena. They never even checked into their hotel. They actually came out competitive for the first ten minutes of the game, but then just wore out. What chance did they really have?

Of course, there's a 0% chance that anybody on the Selection Committee is going to know and remember this travel difficulty on Selection Sunday, and so this is just a big missed opportunity for Purdue to grab a quality victory. They're now 4-3 in Big Ten play with wins over Illinois, Minnesota, Temple and Miami (Fl), along with bad losses to Penn State and Butler. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be around 40th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. They'd definitely be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, but they don't have a lot of room to spare. I think they've got to reach 10-8 to lock down a Tournament spot before the Big Ten tournament tips. They'll play Michigan next, on Tuesday, before a road game at Northwestern next Saturday.

Michigan State is 5-2 in Big Ten play, putting them in a tie with Michigan for the lead in the Big Ten standings. Considering everything that's happened so far in conference play, I don't think there's any question that MSU is the most likely team to challenge Ohio State for the conference title. They still have both of their games against the Buckeyes ahead. They'll play in Columbus on February 11th, and then back in East Lansing on March 4th. The Spartans next game will be Wednesday against Minnesota.

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