Sunday, January 01, 2012

Now Indiana Knocks Off Ohio State

#15 Indiana 74, #2 Ohio State 70
It seems somewhat amazing that with all the success Indiana has had historically, they've never knocked off both the #1 and #2 teams in the nation in the same year. But after knocking off #1 Kentucky a few weeks ago, they've knocked off #2 Ohio State now. And the story in this game wasn't that Indiana got really hot from the floor or took advantage of some big Ohio State mistake. This was just a well-played game between two good teams, and Indiana ended up with the narrow win. And that's the story, that Indiana doesn't appear to be headed for a "reality check". They're not getting lucky - they look like they belong in these games. In this particular game, the narrow difference was turnovers. Ohio State had six more than Indiana did, led by an uncharacteristically sloppy Aaron Craft (4 assists, 6 turnovers).

Before we pencil Indiana into the Final Four, though, let's realize that there's still something they haven't achieved yet. They did knock off Kentucky and Ohio State, but they haven't won a game against a quality team where they were "supposed" to win. The best team they've beaten in a game in which they were favored was Notre Dame. No team plays at their best every game - everybody's going to have a few clunkers. How does Indiana handle those games? We'll find out. They'll play Michigan on Thursday, and then head to Penn State for a game next Sunday.

Ohio State is still, in my opinion, the Big Ten favorite. I don't think it's a dramatic upset for them to lose on the road against one of the better Big Ten teams. They'll get a breather on Tuesday against Nebraska, and then head on the road to play a frisky Iowa team on Saturday.

Purdue 75, Illinois 60
Staying in the Big Ten for a while longer, this game on its face looks like a "taking care of business" game for Purdue, at home against Illinois. But the reality is that this was an underwhelming performance against an Illinois team that has looked really iffy the past few weeks. Purdue only won this game because of a big 26-5 run to start the second half, and for the game as a whole they just shot the ball really well (a 52.9 3P% and a 67.0 eFG%). They were destroyed on the offensive boards (a 12-to-3 advantage for Illinois).

It's another performance that makes me a little bit unsure of just how good Purdue is. They are 2-0 in the Big Ten and have wins over Temple, Illinois, Iona and Miami (Fl), and only one iffy loss to Butler, but they still don't have any really good or dominant wins. Until they beat a team like Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State or Indiana, I can't consider them a serious challenger for a top four spot in the Big Ten standings. They'll play at Penn State on Thursday, and then at Minnesota next Sunday. They follow that up with a home game against Wisconsin, their first real chance for a big win.

This isn't a bad loss for Illinois, but it reinforces the fact that they're playing like a bubble team. This is the type of game that you expect a bubble team to lose. The Illini are 12-3 but, other than that upset win over Gonzaga, their best win was in two overtimes at home against Minnesota. They're probably going to need to reach 9-9 in Big Ten play to make the NCAA Tournament. They're currently 1-1, and will next play Wednesday at Northwestern. They'll come home to play Nebraska next Saturday.

#23 Harvard 74, Saint Joseph's 69
This game for Harvard didn't get 1/10th as much attention as the win over Florida State but, to me, this kind of win is at least as impressive. St. Joe's is a quality team - potentially a bubble team - and they were clicking in the first half. Their shots were falling while Harvard's weren't, and Harvard trailed by as much as 12 points in the second half. But they found a way to fight back, and they fought back by leaning on their best players. In the clutch, they got away from their regular offense and just fed the ball into Kyle Casey, who finished with 26 points on 10-for-16 shooting. This is the type of game that bubble teams lose, and it's impressive that Harvard toughed out the win.

Like last season, Harvard is going to be hamstrung by a soft schedule. This win and that win over Florida State will be their only quality wins as they head into Ivy League play. If they go 12-2 or 11-3 in Ivy League play and lose the auto bid then they'll be stuck on the bubble against teams with much better wins on their resume. But unlike last year, Harvard doesn't have a serious challenger. I think Princeton is the most likely team to give them trouble, but Harvard has to be considered the very heavy favorite. They'll open conference play on Saturday against Dartmouth. Their first game against Princeton will be on the road on February 11th.

The good news for St. Joe's is that this won't be a bad loss. They do have a really bad loss to American, but that's partially made up for by wins over Villanova and Creighton. They are now 10-4 heading into Atlantic Ten play, where they'll open up with a road game at Duquesne on Wednesday. In my opinion, St. Joe's needs to finish at least 10-6 with at least one win over the Temple/Xavier/SLU trio to be in a good position to make a run at an at-large bid in the Atlantic Ten tournament.

2 comments:

ryan said...

Thank you for finally giving Indiana some respect, unlike many other so called "experts"....see Gottlieb, Doug.

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