Ohio State Thrashes Indiana While The Missouri Valley Scuffles

#5 Ohio State 80, #8 Indiana 63
I don't think that anybody paying attention was too surprised by this result. This game got plenty of hype because of the programs involved and their rankings in the polls, but this was a revenge game for the Buckeyes. And remember, Indiana had absolutely everything go right for them in Bloomington, and that game still came down to the final seconds. Unlike the Bloomington game, the Buckeyes did a good job of forcing turnovers here (10 steals). The fact is that ball handling is the weakest area of Indiana's offense (other than, arguably, post scoring), and you can bet that other teams will try to replicate what OSU did... though it's a little bit harder to accomplish when your team doesn't have Aaron Craft.

The star offensively for Ohio State was Lenzelle Smith, who scored 28 points on 10-for-12 shooting (including 4-for-5 behind the arc). This was the game of Smith's life so far, but I do think that's only because he hasn't had enough opportunities to play in his young career. Smith is an excellent shooter (53.1% on threes this year), a very good perimeter defender and a solid defensive rebounder. He's already drawing comparisons to David Lighty, who was one of the best all-around players in the Big Ten the past few years, though I actually think Smith is a little bit more physical. And Smith is certainly a better player at this point in his career than Lighty was back when he was a sophomore. If Craft and Smith both stick around until their senior seasons (the 2013-14 season), that will be a heck of a backcourt duo.

Ohio State is clearly better than Indiana, but there's no shame in that for the Hoosiers. In my opinion, Ohio State is the best team in the country. I would say that Indiana has been the third best Big Ten team so far this season (behind Ohio State and Michigan State). That said, the concern remains the same one I've been bringing up for weeks: can Indiana win consistently the conferences games that they're "supposed" to win. We know that they can get up emotionally at home and knock off Ohio State and Kentucky, and I certainly don't mean to diminish those accomplishments. But can they go on the road and beat the Northwesterns and Michigans of the Big Ten? It remains to be seen. They did win at Penn State, though the Nittany Lions are the worst team in the conference. After that they fell at home to Minnesota. Their next test will be tonight at Nebraska. Nebraska has been playing better the past couple of weeks since they got Jorge Brian Diaz and Dylan Talley back - don't sleep on that game as a potential upset. Either way, the Hoosiers shouldn't have trouble on Sunday at home against Penn State, but then will head on the road to play at Wisconsin.

Ohio State is only 4-2 in Big Ten play, which currently puts them in a tie for third place, but a little bit of that has been bad luck. There's no question that Ohio State has been the best team in the conference thus far. They are actually outscoring their opponents by 0.24 PPP in conference play thus far (scoring 1.10 PPP and allowing only 0.86), which is better than the 0.16 PPP they outscored opponents by last season. That is also, by far, the best in the conference (Michigan State is second best, outscoring opponents by 0.17 PPP, and then Michigan is third at 0.07). I'd expect them to get upset a couple more times the rest of the regular season just because the conference is so deep (I've said many times that I think any team that gets to 14-4 will win the Big Ten, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a bunch of teams sharing the title at 13-5), but I expect them to win at least a share of the regular season title and the Big Ten tournament title. And that combination of accomplishments will no doubt warrant a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Their next game will be Saturday at Nebraska.

Evansville 87, Missouri State 82, OT
Mentally this is just a brutal, brutal loss for Missouri State. They grabbed the lead less than three minutes into the game and held it consistently until there were 15 seconds left in regulation. It was then that Evansville finished off a 10-3 run with a Denver Holmes three-pointer. Missouri State had a chance at the buzzer but couldn't convert. Evansville's Colt Ryan took over in overtime, scoring six points including a back-breaking jumper with a minute to go to put Evansville up by five.

More than just a mental defeat, this is a defeat that seriously damages Missouri State's at-large hopes. A week ago they were 4-1 in conference play and looking like a conference contender. But after falling on the road to Northern Iowa and losing here they are now only 4-3 in the Valley and 11-8 overall with only one real quality win (Creighton) and several bad losses (Illinois State, Evansville and Oklahoma State). Their RPI is 79th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has skidded all the way out to 83rd. I can't see them having a shot at an at-large bid unless they finish at least 12-6 in conference play, which would require an 8-3 or better finish. And considering that they still have to play Wichita State twice and Creighton once, in addition to several other tough games, that's going to be difficult to achieve. The Creighton game is up first, tonight at the Q.

Evansville moves to a respectable 3-4 in Missouri Valley play, and 8-9 overall, with this win. They'll have a good chance to bump both records up to .500 tonight when they play Bradley at home. They'll play Illinois State on Saturday.

Bradley 78, Northern Iowa 67
The Missouri Valley has been stronger this year than it's been since the middle of the last decade. With some of the major conferences down this year (particularly the Pac-12), there's been a lot of talk about how many Tournament bids the Valley will get. And the general consensus I'm hearing in the media is that the question is not whether the conference will get multiple bids, but how many more than two they'll get. But it's always an important reminder that Tournament bids aren't given to conferences, they're given to teams. If the season ended now, the Valley would get two Tournament teams - Creighton and Wichita State - but neither of those two teams is more than one or two bad losses from falling back to the bubble themselves. And after those two teams? I don't see a great option right now. The two teams after Creighton and Wichita State in terms of resume strength are Missouri State and Northern Iowa. But I just talked about that bad loss for Missouri State, and this loss for Northern Iowa is even worse.

Northern Iowa was undone by an 11-for-29 shooting performance behind the arc. Dyricus Simms-Edwards of Bradley hit 6-for-9 behind the arc by himself, and led all scorers with 26 points. Northern Iowa is certainly the team with the third best resume in the Missouri Valley, and if the conference gets a third Tournament team it will most likely be then, but this loss drops them (for the time being) out of the Field of 68. They are only 3-4 in Valley play with bad losses to Evansville, Illinois State and now Bradley, in addition to a loss to Ohio out-of-conference. Their best wins of the season were over Iowa State and Colorado State. Their RPI is still 30th, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 54th. Without any really big wins, they'd definitely be NIT bound if the season ended now. They will get a great chance to bounce back tonight against Wichita State. If they can get to 11-7 in conference play then they'll at least have some scenario heading into Arch Madness where they can earn an at-large bid. Getting to 12-6, which will be a lot harder to do after this loss, would improve their odds further.

This is Bradley's first conference win of the season. They are now 1-6. Their next game will be tonight at Evansville.