Oklahoma Upsets Kansas State

Oklahoma 82, #18 Kansas State 73
Kansas State had played well over the past week, beating down Missouri and then nearly taking out Baylor (they lost by two points). But the concern for Kansas State is always that they're a totally different team away from home. And while they did win at Virginia Tech back in early December, their first road game in conference was that embarrassing destruction at the hands of Kansas, and they were handled pretty easily by Oklahoma here. The Sooners grabbed a double-digit lead in the first half and then led by around 10-15 points the rest of the way.

The Wildcats have struggled to shoot in all of their road games, and that continued here. They launched 30 three-pointers, hitting only 10. Their sloppy play also continued - they had 18 turnovers, their second straight game where they've turned the ball over on more than 25% of possessions. Oklahoma got a big game from Andrew Fitzgerald, who scored in double-digits for his 11th straight game with 21 points on 9-for-10 shooting.

Kansas State is now 12-4 with wins over Missouri, Alabama and Virginia Tech, and only one iffy loss (here, to Oklahoma). But the concern, besides their road woes, is the fact that they're now 1-3 in Big 12 play with a tough game coming up against Texas on Wednesday, followed by a road game at Oklahoma State next Saturday. They probably need to get to 9-9 in conference play to make the NCAA Tournament, so they can't afford to fall too far below .500.

This was an important win for Oklahoma as it avoided an 0-4 start to Big 12 play. They don't have any really bad losses (though a road loss at Oklahoma State isn't looking too good right now) but they don't have any big wins either (Oral Roberts and Arkansas are their two other wins over the RPI Top 100). They can get on the Tournament bubble if they can get to 9-9 in Big 12 play, and that wasn't going to happen if they started 0-4. It's still an uphill battle, but they'll have a good opportunity to move to 2-3 at home on Tuesday against Texas Tech, and then they'll head on the road to play Texas A&M next Saturday.

Iowa 75, #13 Michigan 59
Iowa's change the past few weeks has been tremendous, and they're becoming a team that you don't want to face in Big Ten play (though to be fair... which team would you want to face in the Big Ten this season? The depth is tremendous). Their best win in non-conference play came at home against Drake, and they lost to Campbell and Clemson. But in Big Ten play they've knocked out a pair of ranked teams (Wisconsin and Michigan) as well as Minnesota, and only lost by three points to Purdue. They're now 3-3 in Big Ten play, only a game out of third place in the conference. What's been the big change in their play? Not much, honestly. They're shooting a little bit better, they're playing slightly better defense, and they're certainly getting to the free throw line more (they got to the line 28 times in this game). So they're being more aggressive offensively, but there hasn't been any huge change. I wish I had a better explanation, but I don't.

Michigan had been getting some hype as a team that could contend for the Big Ten title, after they had moved to 4-1 in Big Ten play, ahead of teams like Ohio State and Indiana. But the reality is that they're not as good as they're ranking in the polls. Coming into this game they were rated 29th in Pomeroy and 34th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR, and they'll obviously drop after this loss. They shouldn't have much trouble getting to the 9 Big Ten wins that will probably seal their spot in the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn't expect to see them win more than 10 or 11 games.

Iowa is rising in the Big Ten standings and in the computer ratings. They're nearly the Top 100 in all of the computer ratings, and at 3-3 in the Big Ten find themselves in the middle of the pack. That said, the Big Ten is too good this season for Iowa to win consistently. They'll pull another upset or two, but I don't see any way they're still in the middle of the pack in March.

#9 Missouri 84, Texas 73
This game was a three-point shooting contest, and Missouri just shot a little bit better. Missouri hit their first seven three-pointers, opening up a 33-19 lead. The game was even the rest of the way, but Missouri's offense was just too good and Texas couldn't get enough stops to close the game. J'Covan Brown did look like his old self for the first time since getting hurt, and he finished with 34 points on 6-for-7 shooting behind the arc (as well as 8-for-8 at the line). For Missouri, Flip Pressey led the way with a tremendously efficient 18 points, 10 assists and 0 turnovers. Texas did out-rebound Missouri and they didn't have too many turnovers. Their defense just struggled with the slashing Missouri guards - their help defense in particular needs work.

Texas is a team that is tough to count out. They've only lost three times this season when J'Covan Brown was able to play the entire game, and one of those games was in overtime and the other two were to North Carolina and Missouri. That said, they've done a lot of damage to their NCAA Tournament resume with these losses. They're better than most people outside the Big 12 realize, but it's looking more and more like Kansas is the team to beat in the Big 12, rather than Texas. Missouri and Baylor will also have their say in the conference title, though I think Baylor is a little overrated.

Texas falls to 2-2 in Big 12 play after this loss, and they won't get a chance to dwell on it too long. They'll play at Kansas State on Wednesday, and then will return to Austin to play Kansas next Saturday. Missouri moves to 16-1 and 3-1 in the Big 12, though the one thing they have yet to prove is that they can play well on the road. They've played three true road games - they got waxed by Kansas State, and taken to the wire by Old Dominion and Iowa State. They'll play Texas A&M at home on Monday, but then will start testing themselves on the road. They'll be at Baylor next Saturday, and also will play road games at Texas and Oklahoma State before February.