Saint Mary's Unstoppable In Win At BYU

#20 St. Mary's 80, BYU 66
The St. Mary's offense is gradually getting recognized as one of the best in the land. BYU almost never loses at the Marriott Center (they came into this season having lost only four home games combined the previous five seasons), but St. Mary's just wiped the floor with them. They led by as many as 23 points in the second half. St. Mary's is now scoring an absurd 1.19 PPP in conference play (BYU is second at 1.06). They are 10-0 in conference play, and the only real test left will be if they can beat Gonzaga in Spokane, having already destroyed them by 21 points in Moraga. It's hard to argue with the fact that St. Mary's has played the best basketball of any WCC team so far this season.

There are two questions here. First, are they the favorites to win the WCC auto bid? Second, how safe are they for an at-large bid? Gonzaga had been my pick to take the WCC, but I'm going to be changing that pick now. What St. Mary's did here was just too impressive. Gonzaga doesn't have the perimeter players to hang with the Gaels offense, and I don't think they will have the offensive firepower to keep up. As for the at-large bid? They are now 21-2 overall with wins over Gonzaga and BYU (twce), and only that one bad loss to Denver. Their RPI is up to 20th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be up near 15th. They can actually afford a bad loss or two and still be fine for an at-large bid. They're in with plenty of room to spare right now. Their next game will be on Thursday against San Diego. After that they'll have a week to prepare for that road game at Gonzaga.

This loss drops BYU to 6-3 in conference play, and they're 18-6 overall with a win over Virginia Tech along with bad losses to Loyola-Marymount and Utah State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is around 45th right now, which actually would put them on the Tournament bubble, particularly with the lack of big wins. They have a key game coming up on Thursday at home against Gonzaga. They desperately need a big win to solidify their resume, and this will be their final home game against a quality opponent the rest of the season.

Drake 93, Wichita State 86, 3OT
This seemed like a game that would never end. It ended up taking nearly three full hours. It was just an all-around bad night for Wichita State. They turned the ball over a lot, they struggled on the boards, and the fouls really started to add up as this game went into the extra periods. Two players fouled out (including Tour'e Murray) and three others had four fouls apiece. Drake was able to keep their key players out of foul trouble, including Ben Simons who had 29 points on 11-for-22 shooting in 53 minutes played.

Wichita State came into this game rated in the Top 15 by Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR, but the problem is that their schedule has been soft and hasn't left them with a large margin of error. The only big win they have came against UNLV, and now they have a bad loss to Drake. Their RPI is now 30th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to be right around there as well. That said, they are still 18-4 overall and 9-2 in conference play. Even with only a 5-2 finish (to get to 14-4), their won-loss record should be too good for them to get left out on Selection Sunday. But you never want to take a chance in the Missouri Valley Conference. Because Arch Madness ends a full week before Selection Sunday, the Valley teams tend to get forgotten over the ensuing week. Typically, any MVC team on the bubble at the end of Arch Madness ends up with a ticket to the NIT. Their next game will be Wednesday at Missouri State.

Drake actually moved to 6-5 in Missouri Valley play with this win, and pushed their RPI (and most likely their Sagarin ELO_CHESS) inside the Top 100. They don't have a plausible path to an at-large bid, but if they can get to 9-9 that will have to be considered a successful season. They'll try to move to 7-5 on Wednesday at Indiana State.

Minnesota 77, Illinois 72, OT
This was a heartbreaking loss for Illinois. They were leading by three in the final seconds when Minnesota's Austin Hollins inexplicably attacked the basket instead of going for the game-tying three. But Hollins made a layup and Meyers Leonard was called for a foul. Hollins completed the old fashioned three-point play to send the game to overtime. I thought it was a very soft foul call on Leonard, and if I was reffing I wouldn't have called it, but there's just no way that Leonard can put himself in a situation where he gives the ref a chance to make that call. You've got to get out of the way - let Hollins get the layup. Throw in 3-for-21 three-point shooting for the Illini, and this is clearly a game that they'll feel that they should have won.

This loss drops Illinois to 4-4 in Big Ten play, with wins over Ohio State, Gonzaga, Minnesota and Northwestern, along with a bad loss to Penn State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should still stay inside the Top 30, but they're dangerously close to falling onto the bubble. I think they need to get to 9-9 in Big Ten play and then need to win a game in the Big Ten tournament to feel good about their at-large chances. They have a chance to bounce back in a big way on Tuesday when Michigan State comes to Assembly Hall. After that they'll have a key home game against a Northwestern team desperate for a quality road win.

Minnesota opened the season 0-4 in Big Ten play, but they've won four of five and are now 4-5, with wins over Indiana, Virginia Tech, Illinois and Northwestern, and with only one bad loss (Iowa). This win pushes their RPI up to 39th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should move into the Top 40 as well. If the season ended now they'd be in the NCAA Tournament. The concern for them is that their remaining schedule is brutal. They will play Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana and Wisconsin (twice). They're going to have to win at least a couple of those games, because they're probably going to have to get to 9-9 to have a good shot at an at-large bid, and they can't expect to win all of their other games (nothing is a "gimme game" in this year's Big Ten). Their next game will be Wednesday at Iowa, a perfect example of a game that they need to win but which definitely will not be a "gimme".