Saturday, January 21, 2012

Texas Loses Another Close One

Kansas State 84, Texas 80
It's a frustrating season for Texas so far, as they keep coming up just short against quality teams. They are 0-3 in games decided by five points or less, and have two losses this season that wouldn't have happened if J'Covan Brown hadn't missed much of the second half (once after being ejected, and once after getting hurt). This game was between two teams that are excellent offensive rebounding teams and horrid defensive rebounding teams, and so naturally there were as many offensive rebound (28) as defensive rebounds. Rodney McGruder had another huge game for Kansas State (33 points on 11-for-17 shooting, the second time in the last three games he's gone for 30+). He outplayed J'Covan Brown, who had a rare off-night (4-for-14 behind the arc and a 35.7 eFG% overall).

A road loss at Kansas State is nothing to be ashamed of, of course. Neither is a road loss at Missouri or North Carolina. This Texas team has a ton of talent, and it's easy to blame their youth for these close losses, but I don't think that's the case. I would argue that their youth means that they're going to continue to improve and will be at their best in March. They have an opportunity later today for a gigantic home win against Kansas. A loss, however, would drop them to 2-4 with a home game against Iowa State coming up on Tuesday.

Kansas State has had a pair of impressive home victories in Big 12 play (Missouri and Texas), but as is often the case with the Wildcats, they are a totally different team on the road. They've won only one true road game all season long, and their two road Big 12 games have gone poorly (an embarrassing game against Kansas where they would have lost by 40 if the Jayhawks hadn't pulled their foot off the pedal, and a 9 point loss to a mediocre Oklahoma team). They'll get an opportunity later today on the road at Oklahoma State, a team that has struggled mightily and that also matches up poorly with Kansas State's personnel (OSU has a very thin front court, which makes them a poor rebounding team on both ends of the floor). If Kansas State fails to win this game, then there will really start to become concern about whether they're anything more than a bubble team destined to be limited to whatever they can achieve at home.

Ole Miss 75, #15 Mississippi State 68
Ole Miss was able to match Mississippi State physically in the paint here, and they pushed much of the MSU offense away from the basket. Renardo Sidney played well (17 points on 6-for-12 shooting), but the rest of the offense struggled (a combined 33.3% on two-point attempts). The Rebels, on the other hand, were able to attack the basket, hitting 56.1% of their twos and earning 30 free throws. Reginald Buckner was the star, with 19 points, 15 rebounds and 3 blocks.

You could tell that this game meant more to Ole Miss than it did to their rivals. They knew that this was an opportunity for their best win of the season. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is having their reality check. They climbed into the Top 15 in the polls, but it seemed a bit ridiculous to me. They have only beaten three Top 100 teams all season, and they've been a little lucky to even get there (4-1 in games decided by five points or less). I had some really angry Mississippi State fans here for a while because I wasn't putting their team in the NCAA Tournament while all the other bracket sites were giving them 5 or 6 seeds, but the reality is that I was right. They're a bubble team at best, and SEC play is exposing that.

Mississippi State is now 2-2 in SEC play with wins over Alabama, West Virginia and Arizona, along with iffy losses to Ole Miss, Akron and Arkansas. Their Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings have been outside the Top 50 basically the entire season, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has slipped to 41st as well. An 8-8 SEC record will get them onto the bubble, but I think that unless they get a big win over Kentucky or Florida then they're going to end up in the NIT if they fall short of 9-7. Sagarin predicts a 9-7 finish and Pomeroy projects an 8-8 finish, so they're straddling that line. They have a chance to pick up a good upset win later today at a surging Vanderbilt team (and if Vandy does win, expect the media to preposterously argue that MSU was "upset" because they are ranked and Vandy isn't, even though Vandy should clearly be favored). After that they'll head home for a manageable home game against LSU.

Ole Miss moves to a respectable 12-6 and 2-2 in SEC play with this win. The problem is that they have zero Top 50 wins and a bunch of iffy losses (Auburn, LSU, Middle Tennessee State). They're also 7-2 in games decided by single-digits. So despite an RPI of 39th and a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is 51st, their Pomeroy and PREDICTOR ratings are both outside the Top 100. The Rebels will have a shot at an at-large bid if they can get to 9-7 in SEC play and win a game or two in the SEC tournament, but I doubt that they'll achieve that.

Vanderbilt 69, Alabama 59
It's easy to forget how much talent this Vanderbilt team has. Preseason they got more hype than any other Vanderbilt team in history, and for good reason. They returned absolutely everybody from a team that earned a 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season, after all. They started this season ranked 7th in the nation in both human polls. The problem was that Festus Ezeli injured his knee before the season and missed ten games. And even after he came back it took a while for him to look like the player he was last season. Ezeli may not be the best interior defender in the nation, but he might be the most crucial. Vandy's perimeter defenders are not good, and it was a layup line against them early in the season. They lost games to Indiana State and Cleveland State. But the past few weeks he's been playing more like himself, and he was dominant here with three blocks and a whole bunch of other shots redirected.

Vanderbilt has won eight straight games and is 4-0 in SEC play. They did beat Marquette a few weeks ago, but this is their first quality SEC win. Their overall resume is still relatively soft (their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 30th), but if they can avoid a letdown game later today and beat Mississippi State at home then I'm really going to start to believe that Vandy can work their way back into the Top Ten and can be a legitimate contender in the SEC and to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. I didn't panic too much by Vandy's struggles, never dropping them below a 7 seed in my bracket, and I currently have them as a 5. If they win today then I'll push them up to at least a 4, and will consider pushing them to a 3. They won't have earned that seed yet, of course. But I'll feel more confident that their improved play will earn them that by the end of the season.

Alabama, for as good as their defense has been, is really struggling offensively in SEC play. They've lost back-to-back games to Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, scoring a combined 87.4 PPP. They've scored only 0.98 PPP overall in conference play, despite a relatively soft schedule (they haven't played Kentucky or Florida yet). That schedule strength will improve today when they play on the road at Kentucky. Unless they pull a shocking upset there, they'll fall to 2-3 in SEC play with a road game at South Carolina coming up on Wednesday. I still believe that Alabama is a good team overall, but they have to be careful or they could slip onto the Tournament bubble. Anything less than a 10-6 finish will leave them with work left to do heading into the SEC tournament.

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