UNLV Impresses In Loss To San Diego State

#22 San Diego State 69, #12 UNLV 67
My regular readers know that I look at wins and losses much differently than the mainstream media and pollsters. The response from them after this game was, naturally, that it was a great game for San Diego State and we need to worry about UNLV. Just look at the Coaches Poll. This was the only game UNLV played all week, and they were dropped from 12th to 20th. San Diego State's other game during the week was a horrid eight point win over a Chicago State team that, at the time, was 0-15 and that is rated 340th in the nation by Pomeroy (out of 345, if you're curious), yet they were jacked up from 22nd to 16th. But in my view, this is exactly backwards. I thought that despite a frenzied crowd, UNLV clearly outplayed San Diego State. This result makes me more confident that UNLV is the best team in the Mountain West, not less. Let me tell you why.

First of all, UNLV earned 15 more offensive rebounds and committed one fewer turnover, meaning 16 more possessions than their opponents. They also had five more blocks, two more steals and did a better job of getting to the rim. How did they lose? For one thing, they were just ice cold from the field, finishing with a 41.2 eFG%, compared to a 48.2 eFG% for San Diego State. Lest you think that's not a fluke, that was the single worst shooting performance UNLV has had all season. For the year UNLV has both shot the ball better, and held opponents to a lower shooting percentage, than San Diego State has. Only four times this season has San Diego State held a Division I team to a worse shooting percentage than UNLV had, and three of those were cupcakes (the non-cupcake was Arizona). On top of those stats, the reality is that this was one of possibly the most one-sided reffing I've seen in a game all season long. San Diego State got every single close call in the final 5-7 minutes, not even including the clear travel on the game winning shot at the buzzer.

Remember that home court advantage is worth approximately four points in college basketball. UNLV dominated this game in every way other than some fluke shooting, had atrocious reffing working against them, was dealing with a tremendous road crowd... and San Diego State still needed a buzzer beating shot (on which they traveled but it wasn't called) to win? I honestly don't see how you can come out of this game not thinking that UNLV is the better team.

Now in my view, San Diego State is not the top competitor to UNLV in the Mountain West anyway. I think New Mexico is a more formidable opponent, and the computers agree with me. The Pomeroy/Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings of the three teams are: UNLV (19/15), New Mexico (18/23) and San Diego State (70/66). In other words, San Diego State may be rated 16th in the nation in the human polls, but that won't last. Their fall should start tomorrow when they head on the road to play New Mexico. I don't even think that game will be close. The bigger games to watch out for will be next week, when they head on the road to play Wyoming and Colorado State, two good teams that will be desperate for a big win to try to get themselves on the Tournament bubble. To put those games in perspective, Sagarin and Pomeroy rate San Diego State as underdogs for both.

As for UNLV, they'll play TCU tomorrow before a huge home game on Saturday against New Mexico. If they get upset at home then I will reconsider UNLV as my favorite in the Mountain West. Their "revenge game" at home against San Diego State will be February 11th.

#20 Mississippi State 56, Alabama 52
This game was tight the entire way, and a trio of threes by Dee Bost in the final few minutes helped put Mississippi State over the top. Arnett Moultrie led all players with 25 points and 13 rebounds, but credit also should go to Rodney Hood. The freshman, despite going 0-for-6 from the field and scoring a single point, still had an important role to play. He took care of the ball for 36 minutes and only turned it over once against the ferocious Alabama defense.

Mississippi State obviously isn't as good as their won-loss record. They are 4-1 in games decided by five points or less. Despite their ranking in the human polls (they've actually now moved up to 15th in the Coaches Poll) they are only 48th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR and 56th in Pomeroy. But on Selection Sunday it doesn't matter how good your team is, but who you've beaten and who you've lost to, and this is another quality win for this team. The Bulldogs now have wins over West Virginia, Arizona and Alabama to go with a pair of iffy losses (Akron and Arkansas). They are a respectable 3-3 against the RPI Top 100, and 2-1 in the SEC.

I don't think Mississippi State will stay ranked much longer, and I expect them to be on the bubble on Selection Sunday, but they're making a stronger case for an at-large bid. Even at 8-8 in SEC play they'd have a shot at an at-large bid if they could win a game or two in the SEC tournament. If they get to 9-7 in SEC play then they'll have an excellent shot. At 10-6 or better in SEC play they'll probably be a lock for the Tournament. They'll try to move to 3-1 tomorrow at Ole Miss.

Alabama has only played two games all season that were decided by seven points or less, and they lost both of them. Their lack of a go-to scorer does give me pause, and makes me wonder if they're going to lose a disproportionate number of close games all season long. They are 2-1 in SEC play with an important home game against Vanderbilt tomorrow. Vandy has been playing much better the past few weeks, so that's going to be a difficult game with a road match-up at Kentucky coming up on Saturday. If the Crimson Tide aren't careful, they could find themselves 2-3 in SEC play. I don't think there's any way that Alabama falls to the bubble, but these losses will take a toll on their Tournament seed.

Richmond 76, Temple 65
Fran Dunphy's teams have, historically, always been so consistent. But this is now consecutive bad letdown losses for Temple after a big win. After knocking off Duke they fell at home to Dayton. Then after winning at St. Louis, they fell here to Richmond. It was a surprisingly poor offensive performance from them. They shot only 36.7% from the field (a 41.7 eFG%) with only 8 assists. Collecting 14 offensive rebounds allowed them to finish with a more respectable overall offensive efficiency (0.98 PPP), but it wasn't enough to beat a Richmond team that got hot behind the arc early and never let go. Darien Brothers and Kendall Anthony combined to hit 8-for-15 behind the arc for the Spiders.

Temple is now only 1-2 in Atlantic Ten play. They have wins over Wichita State, St. Louis and Duke with only one bad loss (Bowling Green), so I don't think there's too much concern that Temple will fall to the bubble, but these two letdown losses are going to make it much harder for them to win the Atlantic Ten title. They'll try to bounce back tomorrow against La Salle, and then should be in good shape with a fairly soft schedule the next few weeks.

At one point this season Richmond was 7-6 overall with no quality wins and a couple of bad losses (Bucknell and Davdison), but they've righted the ship a bit. This is their best win of the season, and they are now 2-1 in Atlantic Ten play. With this win they moved back inside the Top 100 in all of the computer ratings. With a winnable upcoming schedule, and it's not inconceivable that they could find themselves something like 9-2 in Atlantic Ten play and getting some at-large hype. They'll play tomorrow at George Washington.