W-6 BP68

So is everybody ready to spend hours and hours tomorrow discussing Texas?

Okay... that was a joke. I actually wrote a long post about Texas right after their game against Baylor to try to avoid that. There are more than 100 teams listed below, and I won't allow myself to get bogged down in another Texas discussion.

Of more interest this week was that the fact that the bubble got weaker. Saturday was a brutal day for the bubble - nearly every team on it lost. I really struggled to fill in the final spots in the field. I decided to drop Arizona this week, the team that had previously been my pick to win the Pac-12. But with Kevin Parrom getting hurt and now out for the season, I've switched my Pac-12 pick to California. Even before Parrom got hurt I didn't think Arizona had a good chance at an at-large bid, so they're out of the Field of 68 altogether. I put in NC State in their place, but don't feel good about that pick. Honestly, I don't like having Northwestern or Dayton in my bracket either. I just couldn't think of a better option. Yes, I know that Minnesota's resume right now is better than Northwestern's, but look at those teams and look at their remaining schedules and you'll see why I think that Northwestern will be in better shape than Minnesota on Selection Sunday.

Among the auto bids I made two changes. In the America East, as promised, I switched out Vermont for Stony Brook. In the SWAC I switched out Alabama State in favor of Mississippi Valley State.

As far as the Full Bubble, four teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Ball State, Boston College, George Washington and Texas Tech. With those four out, that leaves 75 teams not in my current bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

I don't think there were any other major changes from my last bracket, so let me get to my disclaimers:

If I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team. If I projected a team above where you think it deserves to be, it's because I secretly love them and have an incredibly blind bias in their favor.

On a more serious note, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:


1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Duke
2. Florida
2. Georgetown

3. UNLV (MWC)
3. Missouri
3. Michigan State
3. Baylor

4. Texas
4. Marquette
4. Vanderbilt
4. Wisconsin

5. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Virginia
5. Indiana
5. UConn

6. San Diego State
6. ST. MARY'S (WCC)
6. Michigan
6. Louisville

7. CREIGHTON (MVC)
7. Alabama
7. West Virginia
7. Illinois

8. Gonzaga
8. Saint Louis
8. Florida State
8. Purdue

9. Southern Miss
9. Kansas State
9. Wichita State
9. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

10. New Mexico
10. BYU
10. Xavier
10. CALIFORNIA (PAC-12)

11. Cincinnati
11. Mississippi State
11. Iowa State
11. HARVARD (IVY)

12. Seton Hall
12. Stanford
12. Northwestern
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
12. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

13. NC State
13. Dayton
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (SUN BELT)

14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. OHIO (MAC)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
14. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

15. BUTLER (HORIZON)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Minnesota, VCU, Marshall, Cleveland State, Arizona

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Notre Dame, La Salle, UMass, St. Joseph's, South Florida, Oklahoma, Drexel, Central Florida, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Nevada

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Maryland, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Villanova, Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Akron, Drake, Illinois State, UCLA, Oregon State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Charlotte, Duquesne, Fordham, DePaul, Providence, St. John's, Weber State, Penn State, Georgia State, Old Dominion, UTEP, Tulane, Tulsa, Valparaiso, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Loyola-Maryland, Buffalo, Kent State, Indiana State, Air Force, Boise State, TCU, Wagner, Washington State, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, South Dakota State, Denver, Utah State