W-8 BP68

The big change to my bracket projections once we hit January 15th is that I transition to the Full Bubble. What this means is that I will list every team with a "mathematical chance" of an at-large bid. It means listing a bunch of teams that seem to have no plausible chance at an at-large bid, simply because they could theoretically get onto the bubble if they went on a big winning streak. No teams will be added to the bubble the rest of the season. With each new bracket, teams will be eliminated from at-large contention until we get to Selection Sunday, when the bubble will be down to just a handful of teams.

In the past, some readers have thought that the "pretty much need a miracle" category is stupid, since most of the teams have no real chance. If you don't like it, ignore it. I like the idea of not adding any teams to the bubble, and only eliminating. It's my website, after all.

We had a lot of interesting results this past week. There is always a lot of carnage when teams go on their first road trips in conference play, particularly since so many top teams play nearly all of their non-conference games at home. So because of the action, I had four changes to the Field of 68. Cincinnati moved firmly into the Tournament and Pittsburgh dropped out. Meanwhile, Mississippi State edged into the last spot in the field, replacing a Virginia Tech team that is now my first team out. Among the automatic bids, New Mexico State replaced Utah State as my pick to win the WAC's auto bid. In the Southland, I moved Texas-Arlington into the NCAA Tournament and dropped Lamar out.

Remember, as always, that if I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team.

As a more serious reminder: this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference. Here we go:


1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Duke
2. Florida
2. Georgetown

3. Texas
3. UNLV (MWC)
3. Indiana
3. Baylor

4. Marquette
4. UConn
4. Alabama
4. Missouri

5. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Michigan State
5. Vanderbilt
5. Wisconsin

6. Louisville
6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Saint Louis
6. Michigan

7. Virginia
7. BYU
7. New Mexico
7. Purdue

8. West Virginia
8. Kansas State
8. San Diego State
8. CREIGHTON (MVC)

9. Illinois
9. Saint Mary's
9. Xavier
9. Wichita State

10. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
10. Florida State
10. Seton Hall
10. Stanford

11. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
11. Southern Miss
11. Northwestern
11. Cincinnati

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. Dayton
12. California
12. Northern Iowa
12. Mississippi State
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

13. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BUTLER (HORIZON)

14. OHIO (MAC)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)

15. MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (SUN BELT)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Virginia Tech, St. Joseph's, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Marshall, Cleveland State, Missouri State

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Notre Dame, South Florida, Iowa, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, VCU, Georgia State, Central Florida, Illinois State, Colorado State, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Nevada

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Duquesne, La Salle, UMass, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Providence, Rutgers, Villanova, Weber State, Nebraska, Penn State, Drexel, Tulane, UW-Milwaukee, Akron, Kent State, Indiana State, Boise State, UCLA, Oregon State, Washington State, Auburn, Tennessee, Denver, Utah State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Boston College, Wake Forest, Charlotte, Fordham, George Washington, DePaul, St. John's, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa, Valparaiso, Loyola-Maryland, Ball State, Buffalo, Norfolk State, Drake, Air Force, TCU, Wagner, Lehigh, Georgia, South Carolina, Charleston, North Dakota State, South Dakota State