Saturday, February 25, 2012

Alabama Regains Their Form, Thumps Mississippi State

Alabama 67, Mississippi State 50
JaMychal Green returned from suspension here, and he played well, but it was Alabama's team defense that won this game by grinding Mississippi State inter utter frustration. They forced 8 steals and held Mississippi State to 0.86 PPP, their worst offensive performance in SEC play this season. This is what Alabama has done to teams most of the season - they're the second best defensive team in the conference (after Kentucky), and much of their offense comes off of their defense.

Alabama had those two tough losses after all of the suspensions, but they've bounced back with three straight wins to get to 8-6 in SEC play with a 9-8 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that should move up to around 35th. They will play Auburn on Wednesday, and then at Ole Miss next Saturday. If they can win both games then they'll lock up their at-large bid. An upset loss in either game and then they'll need to win an SEC tournament game or they might have to sweat out Selection Sunday.

Mississippi State has now lost five straight games, and their at-large chances are starting to look a little bleak. They are now 6-8 in SEC play and 7-8 against the RPI Top 100, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will tumble out of the Top 50. If the season ended now they'd be right on the bubble, but that's not a good place to be since the bubble always tightens up over the final two weeks. The Bulldogs will play at South Carolina on Wednesday, and then at home against Arkansas next Saturday. I think they need to win both and then need at least one win in the SEC tournament. If they lose one of their final two regular season games, things will get bleak. They'll have to really make a run in the SEC tournament.

TCU 83, #21 New Mexico 64

This game was on the MTN, so it might as well have happened on Mars, but it was perhaps the craziest result of the day. It would be one thing for TCU to pull the upset of New Mexico... but to do it by 19? Everything was working for them, particularly in the second half. They hit 42% of their threes, forced 8 steals, and assisted on 65% of their made shots. Six different Horned Frogs players scored in double-digits, including Amric Fields, who scored 8 straight points to lift TCU's lead from two points to ten to blow the game open.

New Mexico has now lost two straight games since that seven game winning streak. They're now 8-4 in Mountain West play. They have wins over St. Louis, San Diego State and UNLV, but also have bad losses to Santa Clara and TCU. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is likely going to drop into the 30-35 range. Besides harming their resume, it also drags them into a tie with San Diego State and UNLV atop the Mountain West standings. Their remaining schedule should be pretty soft, with home games against Air Force and Boise State. And if we end up with a huge tie atop the Mountain West, somebody else is going to have to figure out the tiebreakers.

This win moves TCU to 7-5, which actually puts them in fourth place in the Mountain West. They're not a great team, but it will be a great accomplishment if they can finish in the top half of the conference. Their remaining schedule is pretty tough, though. They'll play at Wyoming on Tuesday, and at home against San Diego State next Saturday.

Pennsylvania 55, Harvard 54
With a controversial final call, the Ivy League has been turned upside down. With one final chance, down by a point, Harvard star Kyle Casey attacked the rim and slammed into Tyler Bernardini. It looked like a blocking foul to me, and you'd figure that any close call in that situation would go to the home team. But the refs called the charge, and that effectively ended the game.

Now, Harvard gets dragged into a virtual tie atop the Ivy League with Penn. Remember that if the Ivy standings end up in a tie at the end of the season, a playoff will happen to determine the auto bid winner. Last year, Harvard lost that playoff game to Princeton and ended up in the NIT. Will they earn the at-large bid this time around, should they fall? Maybe. I want Harvard to be in the NCAA Tournament, but I'm not as sanguine about their hopes as most people in the media are. They did beat Florida State, but that's their only really big win, and they have bad losses to Fordham and Penn. Their RPI is 38th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will drop into the 35-40 range. If the season ended now they'd most likely be a Tournament team, but if they lose another game to UPenn? It depends on the bubble. Harvard needs to take care of business to avoid this issue. Their next game will be Friday night at Columbia.

Penn is now 9-2 in Ivy League play and 17-11 overall. They're not a Top 100 team, but at this point they control their own destiny. Win every game remaining and they'll earn the Ivy League's automatic bid. They'll try to start with a win on Friday night against Brown.

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